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Geospatial Patterns of Cardiovascular Diseases: A Case Study from the Institute for Cardiovascular Diseases of Vojvodina (Northern Serbia)
No full textCardiovascular diseases (CVDs) represent one of the most
dominant categories of non-communicable diseases, with a high prevalence
both in the Republic of Serbia and globally. Understanding their spatial
distribution provides valuable insights for public health planning and disease
prevention. This study applies geospatial analysis to examine the patterns of
CVDs among patients treated at the Institute for Cardiovascular Diseases of
Vojvodina (ICDV) in the Republic of Serbia, over the period 1995–2023. The
spatial dimension of the research was addressed using the Emerging Hot Spot
Analysis tool in ArcGIS Pro, which implements the Getis-Ord Gi* statistic to
detect statistically significant clusters of high and low values. The results
revealed 12 clusters categorised as Consecutive Hot Spots and 3 clusters
categorised as Sporadic Hot Spots, including 48 and 18 settlements in those
clusters, respectively. The remaining clusters showed no patterns. To further
refine the spatial representation of CVD clusters, the Kriging interpolation
method was applied. For this analysis, settlements’ polygons were converted
to points, after which a Kriging-interpolated raster was generated and
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subsequently transformed into contour lines to facilitate interpretation and
presentation. The number of patients per settlement over the entire study
period ranged from 1 to 357,076. A total of 37 settlements recorded only one
patient. The highest number of patients was observed in Novi Sad, indicating
that settlements within South Bačka County exhibited the greatest disease
burden in the ICDV. The findings underscore the significance of geospatial
methods in pinpointing high-risk areas in cardiovascular diseases, providing
an evidence-based foundation for targeted healthcare interventions and
resource allocation. Moreover, this study demonstrates the potential of
integrating spatial geostatistics with health data to support the development of
preventive strategies and to guide future epidemiological research on noncommunicable diseases in Serbia and beyond.Editors: Slobodan B. Marković, Srđan Rončević, Lazar Lazi
Adaptation to climate change through spatial planning in Serbia - opportunities and challenges
No full textThe space and all created and natural structures in this space, including the population, are exposed to climate change, i.e. the consequences of extreme climatic events. Since spatial plans are prepared with the aim of defining the purpose of the space and creating optimal and better living conditions for the community, the conclusion is that through the plans certain risks to which the space is exposed can be reduced (if they cannot be completely eliminated) to a level that adapts the space to future climate changes. This fact is supported by a review of a large body of foreign and domestic literature that recognizes spatial planning as an important tool for defining adaptation measures. In the paper, the national planning documents of the Republic of Serbia, Montenegro, Croatia, the Republic of Srpska and North Macedonia were first evaluated using the multi-criteria analysis method to determine the current situation. The results lead to the conclusion that the modern planning system requires a change in the methodological framework, which must be based more on risk-based, i.e. climate and climate-resilient planning. The paper presents the basic objectives, opportunities and limitations as a contribution to the creation of a new methodological framework for spatial planning in Serbia, which could enable adaptation to changed climate events.Editor: Natalija Miri
GIS-Based Spatial Modeling of Soil Erosion and Wildfire Susceptibility Using VIIRS and Sentinel-2 Data: A Case Study of Šar Mountains National Park, Serbia
No full textSoil erosion and wildfires are frequent natural disasters that threaten the environment. Identifying and zoning susceptible areas are crucial for the implementation of preventive measures. The Šar Mountains are a national park with rich biodiversity and various climate zones. Therefore, in addition to protecting the local population from natural disasters, special attention must be given to preserving plant and animal species and their habitats. The first step in this study involved collecting and organizing the data. The second step applied geographic information systems (GIS) and remote sensing (RS) to evaluate the intensity of erosion using the erosion potential model (EPM) and the wildfire susceptibility index (WSI). The EPM involved the analysis of four thematic maps, and a new index for wildfires was developed, incorporating nine natural and anthropogenic factors. This study introduces a novel approach by integrating the newly developed WSI with the EPM, offering a comprehensive framework for assessing dual natural hazards in a single region using advanced geospatial tools. The third step involved obtaining synthetic maps and comparing the final results with satellite images and field research. For the Šar Mountains (Serbia), high and very high susceptibility to wildfires was identified in 21.3% of the total area. Regarding soil erosion intensity, about 8.2% of the area is affected by intensive erosion, while excessive erosion is present in 2.2% of the study area. The synthetic hazard maps provide valuable insights into the dynamics of the erosive process and areas susceptible to wildfires. The final results can be useful for decision-makers, spatial planners, and emergency management services in implementing anti-erosion measures and improving forest management in the study area
GIS and remote sensing methods in predicting the dissipation time of rural settlements under the influence of climate change in the Republic of Serbia
No full textIn this research the specific methodology used to better analyzed rural settlements and they properties. The Geographical Information Systems and Remote Sensing approaches taken to connect rural settlements with the climate change effects in Serbia. For the first time the classification of settlements after approved methodology divided in accordance of new spatial relations within the situation in Serbia. Ten morphometric types of rural settlements were analyzed in terms of social, economic, transport, demographic and climatic factors. The effects of climate change, estimated in this study, will become even more noticeable by 2050. The results showed that the rural settlements (villages) in southern and eastern Serbia are very similar to the villages in central Banat in terms of resolution and low value of mitigation of the effects of climate change. In 2050, 35% of the villages in the south, 30% in the east, and 23% in other regions will be dissipated. The total number of dissipated rural settlements in the period from 2011 to 2050 is 680 or 15% in total. By means of GIS and remote sensing methods, all rural settlements were mapped and presented statistically, along with their characteristics. This method is useful for the analysis of rural settlements with 0–15,000 inhabitants. The shape of the settlements was also analyzed and the zones with the strongest impacts of climate change were marked. The hazardous events are divided into extreme rainfall, wind, drought and maximum temperatures and compared with the types of rural settlements. The climate factors included, together with other parameters such as socio-economic, demographic and urban planning factors, provide a complete overview and a better understanding of the survival of rural settlements in the future. The main contribution of this research is the creation of a new classification of rural settlements, taking into account the effects of climate change and new socio-economic theories. In this way, the old classifications and theories that were established fifty years ago will be improved
Демографски профил младог становништва Србије
No full textОва публикација објављена је уз финансијску помоћ Европске уније. За садржину ове публикације искључиво је одговоран Републички завод за статистику и та садржина нипошто не изражава званичне ставове Европске уније
GIS-based water stress analysis in North African drylands
No full textNorth Africa is experiencing intensifying water stress due to rapid population growth, urban sprawl, and climate variability, with major implications for agriculture and human settlement in its predominantly dryland environment. This study applies Geographic Information Systems (GIS), remote sensing, and Multi-Criteria Decision Analysis (MCDA) to assess water scarcity across Algeria, Egypt, Libya, Morocco, Sudan, and Tunisia. Buffer zones of 10, 20, and 50 km around key river systems particularly the Nile, Draa, and Medjerda—were analyzed to evaluate spatial relationships between water access, population density, and agricultural vulnerability. The findings reveal that the 10 km buffer zone around the Nile has undergone 45 % population increase between 2000 and 2020, placing extraordinary pressure on freshwater resources and irrigated agriculture. Libya and Algeria exhibit high hydrological vulnerability, lacking perennial rivers and relying on groundwater extraction, while Morocco and Tunisia face spatially uneven water access. GIS-based zonal statistics show that regions closest to rivers not only host the densest populations but also experience the highest evapotranspiration and land-use change. Over 60 % of North Africa's landmass is classified as high or very high risk for water stress and agricultural decline, particularly in dryland zones beyond 20 km from rivers. The study underscores the critical role of rivers in structuring settlement and farming patterns, while also identifying emerging hotspots of environmental degradation in interior drylands. These results call for urgent adoption of climate-resilient irrigation, decentralized water infrastructure, and enhanced transboundary cooperation. The integrated spatial approach presented herein offers policymakers actionable, location-specific insights to guide sustainable water and land management across North Africa's fragile drylands
Prostorno-demografska organizacija naselja Boka
No full textU savremenim pristupima proučavanja naselja problem prostorno-demografske organizacije naselja sagledava se sa aspekta unutrašnje organizacije, kao i organizacije naselja u mreži naselja. U
radu se analizira prostorno-demografska organizacija naselja Boka,
od 14. veka do danas, na osnovu analize statističkih izvora i relevantne literature. Naselje Boka se nalazi u Srednjobanatskoj oblasti
i pripada opštini Sečanj. Prema popisu iz 2022. godine u naselju
je bilo 1143 stanovnika. Na prostorno-demografsku problematiku,
koja zauzima značajno mesto u savremenim geografskim istraživanjima, bitno su uticali fizičko-geografski i antropogeni faktori. Oni
su tokom naseobinske istorije Boke imale dinamičan karakter, s tim
da su najitenzivniji od 90–ih godina 20. veka. Težište istraživanja
predstavlja prikaz opštih i posebnih zakonitosti koje su imale presudan uticaj na teritorijalni razmeštaj naselja Boka, kao i njegovu
demografsku, morfološku i funkcionalnu strukturu.Urednik: Vladimir Čavra
Održivost kao strateški cilj - pregled mjera i preporuke
No full textS obzirom da su kretanja na turističkom tržištu odavno postala globalna, te da je ova industrija postala snažan pokretač ekonomskog razvoja mnogih zemalja i generator zapošljavanja različitih profi la radne snage, turizam, usljed svoje dinamičnosti, sve više doprinosi narušavanju ekološke ravnoteže mnogih destinacija. Nastojanja većine destinacija odnose se na saniranje negativnih konotacija koje turistička industrija proizvodi, a tiču se narušavanja prirodnog okruženja i kulturno istorijskog naslijeđa. Ovaj rad ima za cilj da upozna čitaoce sa alatima održivog razvoja koje mogu pomoći destinacijama u samoevaluaciji stanja održivosti. Osim toga cilj je da se otvori naučni dijalog o aspektima održivog razvoja. Pregled mjera pružiće uvid u moguće tehnike saniranja negativnih efekata od turizma, posebno onih koje se odnose na ekološku i kulturnu ugroženost destinacije. Svrha rada je da uporedna analiza indikatora može predstavljati podsticaj za buduće istraživače.Urednici: Dejan Filipović, Velimir Šećerov, Dušan Ristić, Marina Ili
Snow Avalanche Susceptibility Mapping Using Deep Learning, Machine Learning, and Fuzzy Logic: A Case Study of the Šar Mountains, Serbia
No full textDue to the increasing frequency of climate extremes, predicting hydrological hazards such as snow avalanches has become a critical priority in environmental protection and risk management. This study presents a comprehensive approach to mapping snow avalanche susceptibility in the Šar Mountains National Park (southern Serbia), where avalanches pose significant risks to people, infrastructure, and biodiversity. Using a hybrid methodology that integrates machine learning, deep learning, and fuzzy logic within a GIS framework, susceptibility maps were developed based on nine conditioning factors: normalized difference snow index (NDSI), slope, land use, elevation, plan and profile curvature, aspect, winter precipitation, and winter air temperature. A total of nine models were applied: Logistic Regression (LR), Support Vector Machines (L-SVM, G-SVM), Decision Tree (DT), Random Forest (RF), LightGBM, XGBoost, Multi-Layer Perceptron (MLP), and Fuzzy AHP (FAHP). Avalanche inventory data were used to train and validate the models using a double cross-validation scheme. All models showed strong predictive performance (AUC > 90%), with RF achieving the highest AUC (99.9%) and DT the lowest (93%). Key predictive features were slope, elevation, land use, and NDSI. High-risk zones were found near mountain peaks and ridges, and vulnerable settlements included Restelica, Brod, and the Brezovica ski resort. The area classified as ‘’very high susceptibility’’ ranged from 4.24% (XGBoost) to 24.73% (DT). This is the first study to apply MLP independently for avalanche susceptibility and among the first to integrate diverse AI-based models with fuzzy logic. The results provide valuable support for land-use planning, civil protection, and park management
Ključni aspekti i perspektive Zelene tranzicije u Srbiji
No full textZelena tranzicija u Srbiji predstavlja ključni proces transformacije ka održivom i
ekološki prihvatljivom razvoju, usklađenom sa evropskim i globalnim trendovima u oblasti
zaštite životne sredine. Rad se zasniva na Nacionalnom izveštaju o mapiranju zelene tranzicije
u Srbiji, izrađenom u okviru projekta Green Force (Horizon Europe program), kroz koji je
fokus stavljen na identifi kovanje relevantnih politika, aktera i inicijativa koje doprinose ovom
procesu. Fokusirajući se na pet stubova Zelene agende za Zapadni Balkan: dekarbonizaciju,
cirkularnu ekonomiju, smanjenje zagađenja, ruralni razvoj i očuvanje biodiverziteta, dat
je uvid u trenutni status Zelene tranzicije u Srbiji, ističući postojeće izazove i mogućnosti
za unapređenje. Metodološki okvir uključuje kvantitativne i kvalitativne pristupe, uz SWOT
analizu, kako bi bila procenjena efi kasnost primenjenih mera i identifi kovane oblasti koje
zahtevaju dodatnu podršku. Rezultati pokazuju da se u fokusu nalaze stubovi dekarbonizacije
i cirkularne ekonomije, dok su oblasti smanjenja zagađenja i ruralnog razvoja suočene sa
strukturnim izazovima i nedostatkom adekvatne podrške. Na osnovu dobijenih rezultata,
iznete su preporuke za unapređenje Zelene tranzicije u Srbiji, sa posebnim naglaskom
na integraciji principa Evropskog zelenog dogovora u nacionalne javne politike i strateška
dokumenta.Urednici: Dejan Filipović, Velimir Šećerov, Dušan Ristić, Marina Ili