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Primeri dobre prakse Evrope u postupku integrisanja adaptacije na klimatske promene u prostorno planiranje
No full textSavremeni problemi u životnoj sredini poput klimatskih promena i posledica njihovih uticaja nameću pred globalnu zajednicu mere mitigacije (ublažavanja) efekata klimatskih promena i adaptacije (prilagođavanja) na novonastale klimatske uslove kao neophodne. Akcije prilagođavanja podrazumevaju promene u ekološkim, društvenim ili ekonomskim sistemima u cilju ublažavanja potencijalnih šteta koje mogu nastati kao posledica klimatskih promena, ili pak iskoristile mogućnosti proistekle iz novonastalih okolnosti. Mnoge države uveliko preduzimaju određene korake na izgradnji otpornijeg društva i ekonomije, počevši od inoviranja zakonodavnih sistema, razvijanja mnogobrojnih rešenja za adaptaciju i sprovođenje akcija. Mere adaptacije nisu unikatne, a oblikuju se prema društvenom i državnom uređenju, planerskoj praksi, ekonomskom standardu i iziskuju velike ambicije i akcije kako bi se na ekonomičan i društveno prihvatljiv način realizovale. Pojedine mere adaptacije uveliko predstavljaju deo planerske prakse u Srbiji, poput mera zaštite od poplava i mera upravljanja rizikom. Međutim, adekvatne mere adaptacije moraju biti deo šireg konteksta u planskom procesu, što iziskuje promenu metodološkog i zakonodavnog okvira planiranja. Sa ciljem pružanja doprinosa integrisanja adaptacije na klimatske promene u prostorno planiranje u Srbiji, u radu se daje prikaz primera dobre prakse država Evrope (Velika Britanija, Danska, i Austrija) koje su utemeljile ovaj postupak kako kroz zakonodavni, tako i kroz planski sistem. Naveden je i primer države iz regiona - Hrvatske sa lokalnim nivoom planiranja u Karlovcima. Budući da su pojedina planska rešenja ovog tipa implementirana, izvodi se zaključak da mogu služiti kao dobar primer i pokazatelj da je dostizanje adaptacije moguće kroz planski sistem.Urednici: Dejan Filipović, Velimir Šećerov, Dušan Ristić, Marina Ili
Impact Of Coal-Based Electricity Generation, Land Use Change, Steel And Cement Production On CO2 Emissions: Evidence From Eastern European And Central Asian Countries
No full textThe problem of studying carbon footprint factors is one of the key ones for understanding the relationship between socio-economic development and atmospheric pollution. We employ a panel quantile regression approach to reveal the impact of the energy sector (namely, coal-based electricity and hydropower generation), manufacturing (steel and cement production), and agriculture (cropland area change) on CO2 emissions in 16 Eastern European and 4 Central Asian countries for the period from 2000 to 2020. We provide evidence for a U-shaped environmental Kuznets curve for countries with a lower carbon footprint, while the countries with the highest emissions are found to have an inverted U-shaped relationship between them and GDP per capita. The relationship between electricity production from coal and emissions is positive and significant at all quantiles (except the 30th quantile), and for hydropower, it is negative and significant from the 20th to 70th quantile: a 1% increase in generation leads to CO2 emissions increase by 0.08-0.20% and a decrease by 0.04-0.07%, respectively. Crude steel production positively influences emissions (from the 10th to 80th quantile levels): a 1% increase in the output of steel products results in carbon emissions increase by 0.05-0.07%. The relationship between cropland expansion and emissions is positive from the 40th quantile, but the coefficient shows high significance only at the 80th quantile. These findings allow us to conclude that CO2 emissions reduction in Eastern European and Central Asian countries could be achieved by the replacement of coal in the electricity generation structure by renewables (including hydropower), the introduction of sustainable land use practices to preserve carbon sinks, and technological modernization of crude steel production
Machine Learning and Deep Learning Approaches for Wildfire Susceptibility Prediction: A Case Study of the Djerdap Geopark, Serbia
No full textSpatial modeling of wildfire probability is a key preventive measure for reducing the ecological, economic, and social impacts of wildfires. This study develops an advanced wildfire susceptibility framework for the UNESCO Global Geopark Djerdap (Serbia) by integrating geographic information systems (GIS), multi-sensor satellite data, and state-of-the-art artificial intelligence (AI) algorithms. Four modeling approaches were evaluated: convolutional neural networks (CNN), deep neural networks (DNN), Kolmogorov–Arnold networks (KANs), and Extreme Gradient Boosting (XGBoost). The dataset comprised 1,354 historical wildfire incidents (2001–2024) derived from MODIS and VIIRS imagery, combined with 15 predictive variables representing topographic, climatological, hydrological, vegetational, and anthropogenic factors. The results indicated that approximately 96.79 km² of the geopark exhibits high wildfire susceptibility. Among the tested models, XGBoost achieved the highest accuracy (99.38%) and specificity (99.63%), while CNN and KANs demonstrated balanced and robust predictive performance; DNN showed comparatively limited generalization. SHAP (SHapley Additive exPlanations) analysis identified distance from settlements and consecutive dry days as dominant predictors across models. This study presents the first application of Kolmogorov–Arnold Networks in wildfire susceptibility assessment and demonstrates their integration with conventional AI models for explainable spatial prediction. The fusion of multi-sensor data and explainable AI enhances model transparency, supporting the identification of vulnerable settlements and cultural heritage areas. The proposed framework contributes to scalable and interpretable wildfire risk modeling, offering valuable guidance for sustainable landscape management and informed policy-making across protected UNESCO sites
Potential Impacts of Future Climate Conditions on Protected Areas in the Danube Region of the Republic of Serbia
No full textThis study investigates projected future climate conditions in five protected areas located within the Danube Region of the Republic of Serbia: Fruška Gora National Park, Đerdap National Park, Gornje Podunavlje Special Nature Reserve, Deliblatska Peščara Special Nature Reserve, and Koviljsko-Petrovaradinski Rit Special Nature Reserve. Based on climate model projections, the primary concern centers on altered precipitation patterns combined with rising temperatures. These changes are expected to subject natural vegetation and entire ecosystems to prolonged dry periods interspersed with more frequent extreme precipitation events. To evaluate these climatic changes, three climate indices are employed: the Forestry Aridity Index, the Hydro-Thermal Coefficient, and Ellenberg’s Climate Quotient. These indices are analyzed under two representative concentration pathway (RCP) scenarios—RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5—to estimate conditions through the end of the 21st century. Climate data were obtained from the Digital Climate Atlas of the Republic of Serbia and processed using QGIS 3.36.3 software. The average values were calculated for the following time periods: 2041–2060, 2061–2080, and 2081–2100. Historical (1961–1990) and contemporary climate observations (1991–2020) are also incorporated to establish a baseline for assessing future climate extremes. Anticipated negative impacts are contextualized using documented consequences of past extreme climate events. Notably,
the years 2000, 2003, 2007, 2012, 2017, 2022, and 2024 have been identified as particularly dry since the beginning of the century, during which protected areas experienced vegetation stress, elevated wildfire risk, and adverse effects on wildlife. This research aims to determine whether the climatic conditions observed during these years could become a new norm by the end of the century and to assess the implications for the long-term resilience of protected ecosystems in the region. The results are crucial for informing adaptive management strategies and enhancing the capacity of conservation efforts to respond to climate-induced stressors. By providing spatially and temporally explicit projections, this study supports evidence-based decision-making in nature protection and sustainable management planning.Editor: Natalija Miri
Exposure to the noise or pollution: evidence across European countries
No full textEnvironmental issues and climate changes pose a growing threat to the public health and longevity across Europe, with air and noise pollution contributing significantly to premature mortality and diminished quality of life. We estimate the probability to be exposed to the noise or pollution controlling for individual and household level characteristics by using probit method. Dataset is 2023 Survey of Income and Living Conditions for most EU countries and Serbia. Our result reveals significant heterogeneity between European countries, however, in all but one country living in cities or towns vs. living in rural area has significant influence on the probability of exposure to the noise or pollution. The marginal effect for urban areas ranges from 2% in Slovakia to 40% in Greece. There is no significant difference between genders. Elderly people (65+) have lower probability of exposure. Tenures comparing with tenants have lower probability of exposure, which suggests that individuals chose to buy property for living in areas with less environmental problems. In majority of countries people at-risk-of-poverty have higher probability to be exposed to noise or pollution. In Serbia and Latvia, the effect is opposite, poverty is higher in rural than in urban areas and the former areas have lower exposure to the noise or pollution. Our results suggest that effective policy measures are necessary to reduce noise and pollution in urban areas all around the Europe. Additionally, policies for reducing urban-rural inequalities within countries could have direct effect on more equal distribution of risks between cities, towns and rural areas.Editor: Natalija Miri
The Prospects of Congestion Pricing in Medium‐Sized Cities
No full textCongestion pricing is an increasingly relevant policy tool for managing urban traffic
congestion and reducing environmental impacts. While its implementation has been widely studied in
large metropolitan areas such as London, Singapore, and Stockholm, its applicability to medium-sized
cities remains underexplored. This paper examines the potential of congestion pricing in medium-sized
urban contexts, addressing the benefits, challenges, and policy adaptations necessary for effective
implementation. Medium-sized cities face unique challenges, including weaker public transit networks,
technological limitations, and greater political resistance. To navigate these obstacles, congestion pricing
policies must be gradually introduced, technologically feasible, and socially equitable. Strategies such as
trial periods, transparent revenue reinvestment, and targeted equity measures can mitigate opposition
while ensuring broad public support. The integration of hybrid pricing models, low-emission zones, and
parking reforms can further enhance policy effectiveness. Lessons from global case studies suggest that
medium-sized cities should adopt a phased approach, starting with simpler fixed charges and
progressively refining their pricing mechanisms based on data and public response. By overcoming
financial, technological, and social barriers, congestion pricing can shift from a contentious policy to a
sustainable mobility solution. With evidence-based design and public engagement, medium-sized cities
can implement it effectively, fostering efficient, accessible, and eco-friendly urban transport
Geospatial Modeling of Suitable Sites for Solar Power Plants Based on GIS and BWM: A Case Study of the City of Kraljevo, Serbia
No full textIncreasing the share of renewable energy sources in global electricity production is one of the main goals of sustainable development and environmental protection. Solar energy in many parts of the world has a great potential that is still underutilized. Serbia is one of the European countries with significant solar potential and conditions for the construction of solar power plants. Before installing photovoltaic panels and construction of solar power plants, the most suitable areas must be identified. This is the first step in which many environmental and socio-economic factors are considered to identify the most suitable areas and make efficient use of solar energy. The territory of the city of Kraljevo is the largest administrative unit in Serbia, which has a certain potential that has not been used so far. Using geographic information systems (GIS) and the Best–Worst Method (BWM), six natural and anthropogenic factors that have a significant impact on the final selection of suitable locations were determined and evaluated. By assigning weighting coefficients and processing six thematic maps in GIS, a synthesis map of amenities was created. On the territory of the city of Kraljevo, about 6.98% of the area is most suitable, while 25.23% is suitable for the construction of solar power plants. This is the first study for Kraljevo that integrates GIS-BWM for the needs of solar energy potential. The obtained results provide an adequate geospatial representation of the most suitable locations, which can be useful to decision-makers in the proper utilization of solar energy.Part of the book series: Lecture Notes in Operations Research (LNOR
Bor and Majdanpek – Report on the Results of the Survey Research
No full textThis report presents the findings of a survey conducted within the MINIPART project – Improving Participation in Spatial Planning of Mining Areas. The survey was carried out in the City of Bor and the Municipality of Majdanpek on a random, two-stage sample of 300 respondents. The purpose of the research was to explore local residents’ perceptions of participation in planning processes, focusing on their behaviour, understanding, engagement, and attitudes toward specific participatory methods and procedures. The aim was to identify which participation methods are most suitable and acceptable to the local population. The results indicate a significant level of disappointment and distrust among respondents toward all actors and participatory processes. Only a small number of participants had taken part in public hearings. The most common reason for non-participation was the belief that individual voices are not heard and do not influence outcomes. Respondents expressed a preference for using the internet to obtain information and share opinions. Furthermore, favoured participation methods tended to be those that respondents were already familiar with, particularly those involving face-to-face communication. These findings will be compared in the following stages of the research with expert opinions on participatory methods and procedures. The final outcome will include recommendations for improving participation practices in the mining areas of Serbia. The insights gained are expected to apply to other contexts as well
Uticaj klimatskih promena na realizaciju ciljeva održivog razvoja
No full textU radu su predstavljeni uticaji klimatskih promena i veze sa ciljevima održivog razvoja na koje one najviše utiču (COR 1 – svet bez gladi, COR 2 – svet bez siromaštva, COR 3 – dobro zdravlje, COR 12 – održiva potrošnja i proizvodnja, COR 15 – život na zemlji). Identifi kovani su ključni problemi zbog kojih je ovaj fenomen uvršten kao poseban cilj u sklopu Agende 2030, delovi sveta u kojima je on najviše izražen kao i razlike u njihovom (potencijalnom) uticaju na razvijeni i nerazvijeni deo sveta. Analizirane su posledice usled klimatskih promena koje se odnose prvenstveno na finansijske izdatke i domene u kojima su oni evidentirani. Iz dokumenta Srbija i Agenda 2030, izdvojen je i analiziran deo u vezi sa ciljem održivog razvoja 13 (Akcija za klimu), navedena su ključna dokumenta koja su doneta u skladu sa njime i prilagođavanjem sa politikom Evropske unije. Naposletku, predložena su pojedina rešenja, koja bi se na lokalnom nivou mogla sprovesti radi poboljšanja mikroklimatskih uslova i ispunjavanja ovog cilja.Urednici: Dejan Filipović, Velimir Šećerov, Dušan Ristić, Marina Ili
Uloga agrovoltaike u postizanju ciljeva Zelene agende - sinergija OIE i poljoprivrede
No full textOdrživa poljoprivreda i proizvodnja dovoljnih količina energije iz obnovljivih izvora postali su imperativ rastuće globalne populacije. Prema procenama UN, svetska populacija danas broji 8.2 milijarde stanovnika planete Zemlje, a ukoliko se postojeći trendovi nastave, sredinom XXI veka možemo očekivati brojku od 9.7 milijarde. Istovremeno, dok broj ljudi na planeti raste (uz porast potražnje za hranom i energijom), jedan od najznačajnijih resursa današnjice polako nestaje – prema procenama UN, u periodu 2000-2015.godina oko 20% ukupne Zemljine površine (tla) je degradirano usled enormnog antropogenog pritiska. Kako je jedan od glavnih prioriteta na globalnom nivou napuštanje fosilnih goriva i smanjivanje emisije CO2, proizvodnja energije iz obnovljivih izvora i zelena tranzicija – javile su se dodatne aktivnosti koje vrše pritisak na način korišćenja zemljišta. Sve češće, širom Evrope (ali i drugih delova sveta) svedočimo sukobima između poljoprivredne proizvodnje i ekspanzije OIE – odnosno izgradnje velikih fotonaponskih sistema, koji zauzimaju slobodno zemljište, koje se potencijalno može koristiti za proizvodnju hrane. Stoga se postavlja ključno pitanje – da li se proizvodnja hrane i proizvodnja energije iz obnovljivih izvora mogu uskladiti? Da bi se prepreke prevazišle na najbolji mogući način, bilo je potrebno istražiti i razvijati nove pristupe poput agrovoltaike (ko-lokacija fotonaponskih sistema i poljoprivrede). Agrovoltaika omogućava simultano korišćenje zemljišta za dve naizgled suprostavljene aktivnosti – energetiku i poljoprivredu, čime se smanjuje potreba za dodatnim zemljištem i povećava efikasnost, racionalnost i održivost u korišćenju prirodnih resursa. Ujedno, agrovoltaika snažno podržava jačanje otpornosti poljoprivrednih sistema na klimatske promene, dekarbonizaciju i zelenu tranziciju, što je u skladu sa politikama Evropskog zelenog dogovora.Urednici: Dejan Filipović, Velimir Šećerov, Dušan Ristić, Marina Ili