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Effect of climate and land use change on discharge in the Betwa River basin, India, using SWAT based on CMIP6 and the Land Change Modeler model projections
No full textAssessment of hydrological flux under climate and land use change is critical. For the Ken-Betwa river-linking project underway in central India, a pre-assessment of land use land cover (LULC) and climate change effects on the hydrology of the Betwa River basin becomes essential. Land Change Modeler suggests a sustained expansion in open forests and built-up land. Agricultural land area shows a decline for 2030 and 2050. Model performance measures such as Nash–Sutcliffe efficiency, R2 , PBIAS, and RSR for calibration (1987–1999)/validation (2000– 2018) were 0.66, 0.67, 1.2, 0.59, and 0.64, 0.65, 9.2, and 0.60, respectively, based on the historical climate (1984 2018) and land use map. SSP245 scenarios (MRI-ESM2-0 and ACCESS-ESM1-5) and LULC 1990, 2010, 2030, and 2050 show a decreasing trend in the average annual discharge. Average annual river discharge declined with the MRI-ESM2-0 model under SSP245 and LULC 2010 scenarios, while a more optimal decline was observed under SSP245 and LULC 1990 scenarios. There is a substantial decline in average annual river discharge with ACCESS-ESM1-5 under SSP245 and LULC 2050, whereas the least projected decline is under SSP245 and LULC 1990. Both models exhibited a decreasing trend in average annual discharge at the outlet from mid-century
Besplatan javni gradski saobraćaj i urbana mobilnost - ekonomski, ekološki i socijalni efekti
No full textBesplatan javni gradski saobraćaj (FFPT) sve češće se promoviše kao politika urbane mobilnosti sa ciljem povećanja broja putnika javnog prevoza, smanjenja zavisnosti od automobila i unapređenja socijalne jednakosti. Međutim, njegova ekonomska održivost i ekološka efektivnost su i dalje predmet stručnih rasprava. Ovaj rad predstavlja objedinjenu analizu ključnih nalaza više studija slučaja u cilju sagledavanja stvarnih efekata FFPT-a.
alazi pokazuju da, iako ova politika podstiče veće korišćenje javnog prevoza, retko dovodi do značajnog smanjenja automobilskog saobraćaja - osim kada se sprovodi zajedno sa komplementarnim merama kao što su uvođenje naknade za zagušenje i/ili urbanističke intervencije usmerene na smanjenje potreba za saobraćajem u gradu. Štaviše, finansijski teret koje nameće FFPT veoma često nadmašuje njegove koristi, opterećujući gradski budžet i ugrožavajući kvalitet usluga javnog prevoza. Nasuprot tome, ciljane subvencije i unapređenje kvaliteta usluga pokazuju se kao efikasnije alternative. Zaključak je da FFPT sam po sebi nije dovoljan za suštinske pozitivne promene u sistemu urbane mobilnosti i da ga treba sprovoditi kao deo šire, dobro integrisane strategije gradskog saobraćaja i urbanog razvoja.Urednici: Dejan Filipović, Velimir Šećerov, Dušan Ristić, Marina Ili
Efekti toplih dana na stopu rađanja u glavnom gradu Srbije
No full textCilj rada jeste da ispita efekte toplih dana na stopu rađanja u Regionu Beograda. Činjenice da su čak četvrtina stanovništva i živorođenja skoncentirisane u prestonici i da se Beograd izdvaja kao ostrvo toplote sa iznadprosečnom temperaturom vazduha, čine ovu analizu u potpunosti opravdanom i značajnom. U radu se koriste podaci Demografske statistike o skoro 108 hiljada živorođenih u prestonici u periodu 2015-2020, kao i podaci Digitalnog atlasa Srbije o dnevnim prosečnim temperaturama u istom periodu. Naš pristup, baziran na regresionoj analizi, omogućava ispitivanje efekata slučajnih varijacija u distribuciji dnevnih temperetura vazduha (fokus je na danima sa prosečnom temperatura iznad 26.6) na stopu rađanja do 10 meseci nakon izloženosti (visokim temperaturama vazduha). Glavni rezultati ukazuju na jak negativan efekat vrelih dana na stopu rađanja 9 meseci nakon izloženosti visokim temperaturama. Ovakvi nalazi pomažu u objašnjavanju uočenog pada nataliteta tokom prolećnih meseci, i kao takvi mogu biti korisni pri formulisanja strategija za ublažavanje efekata vrućih temperaturnih šokova kojima će populacija Beograda sve više biti izložena u budućnosti. Pitanja koja se nameću za buduća istraživanja su sledeća: da li se može govoriti o kompenzacionom periodu u domenu rađanja nakon toplotnih talasa, i da li će klimatske promene sve više pomerati rađanje u letnje mesece imajući u vidu da je izloženost stanovništva visokim temperaturama u trećem kvartalu godine sve veća.Urednici: Dejan Filipović, Velimir Šećerov, Dušan Ristić, Marina Ili
Wildfire Susceptibility Mapping Using Deep Learning and Machine Learning Models Based on Multi-Sensor Satellite Data Fusion: A Case Study of Serbia
No full textTo prevent or mitigate the negative impact of fires, spatial prediction maps of wildfires are created to identify susceptible locations and key factors that influence the occurrence of fires. This study uses artificial intelligence models, specifically machine learning (XGBoost) and deep learning (Kolmogorov-Arnold networks—KANs, and deep neural network—DNN), with data obtained from multi-sensor satellite imagery (MODIS, VIIRS, Sentinel-2, Landsat 8/9) for spatial modeling wildfires in Serbia (88,361 km2). Based on geographic information systems (GIS) and 199,598 wildfire samples, 16 quantitative variables (geomorphological, climatological, hydrological, vegetational, and anthropogenic) are presented, together with 3 synthesis maps and an integrated susceptibility map of the 3 applied models. The results show a varying percentage of Serbia’s very high vulnerability to wildfires (XGBoost = 11.5%; KAN = 14.8%; DNN = 15.2%; Ensemble = 12.7%). Among the applied models, the DNN achieved the highest predictive performance (Accuracy = 83.4%, ROC-AUC = 92.3%), followed by XGBoost and KANs, both of which also demonstrated strong predictive accuracy (ROC-AUC > 90%). These results confirm the robustness of deep and machine learning approaches for wildfire susceptibility mapping in Serbia. SHAP analysis determined that the most influential factors are elevation, air temperature, and humidity regime (precipitation, aridity, and series of consecutive dry/wet days)
Environmental and Public health risks of heavy metal contamination in soil adjacent to illegal and unsanitary municipal landfills in Vojvodina, Serbia
No full textThe main goal of this paper is to examine the presence of heavy metals in the soil adjacent to illegal and unsanitary municipal landfills in Vojvodina (Serbia), to assess the potential environmental and health risks of unsustainable waste management practices. The maximum concentrations of heavy metals (Cd, Ni, Zn, Hg, As, Cu, Pb and Cr) in the soil of illegal and unsanitary landfills during the period 2016-2021 were analyzed, as well as the number of mentioned landfills, their locations (proximity to populated areas, water bodies, agricultural areas, etc.), and the potential health effects to which the population of the Vojvodina Province is exposed. Data for the research were retrieved from annual reports of the Provincial Secretariat for Urban Planning and Environmental Protection - Autonomous Province of Vojvodina and Serbian Environmental Protection Agency (SEPA). The results showed that the maximum limit values of almost all the examined heavy metals were significantly exceeded. For instance, in 2021, the highest Zn value was measured in the Odžaci municipality, which was 751.79 mg/kg, while the maximum permissible limit value for Zn is 140 mg/kg. In 2021, the highest concentration of Ni was measured in the area of the Beočin municipality, which was 397.74 mg/kg (the maximum limit value for Ni is 35 mg/kg). The highest concentration of As was measured in 2020 in the City of Subotica (306.67 mg/kg), while in 2021, a concentration of 118.97 mg/kg was measured in the Odžaci municipality (according to the national Regulation, the maximum limit value for As is 29 mg/kg). The highest Cu value in 2021 was registered in the municipality of Šid (805.30 mg/kg), while in 2020, a value of 902.29 mg/kg was measured in the area of the City of Kikinda - Novi Kozarci settlement (the maximum limit value for copper is 36 mg/kg). The findings presented in this study can contribute to the identification of the most vulnerable areas in Vojvodina Province, establishing sustainable waste management strategies and gaining a clearer understanding of how unsustainable waste management can impact quality of life, the environment and public health.Editor: Natalija Miri
Multicriteria analysis of Toponyms of the Republic of Serbia
No full textToponyms have great social, economic, historical, andcultural significance for every country, as they representa vital part of the nation's identity. They provide a basisfor the identification and analysis of geographical entitiesrepresented on maps. This paper presents research basedon a multicriteria analysis of toponyms, aimed at rankingthose toponyms that will be displayed on topographic mapsof various scales. The research was conducted in two phases.In the first phase, the key criteria and relevant methods foranalysis were defined. In the second phase, the toponymswere ranked, and the obtained results were evaluated.Toachieve a more objective and realistic ranking of toponyms,two analytical methods were used. First, the OPA methodwas applied to determine the weight coefficients for eachtype of toponym. Then, the RAFSI method was used to rankeach toponym individually. The research was conductedusing data from the GIS system utilized for the creation oftopographic maps of the Republic of Serbia
Are Plans in Serbia Age-friendly? A Comparative Analysis of Gen eral Urban Plans in the Context of Population Ageing
No full textPopulation ageing represents a key demographic change that has profound implications for urban planning, mobility and access to services. As cities struggle to become more inclusive and resilient, planning systems must proactively respond to the needs of an ageing society. This paper examines whether the general urban plans in Serbia sufficiently consider and respond to the challenges of demographic ageing. The study examines to what extent and in what way urban development plans in Serbia take into account the needs of an ageing population. The paper focuses on the general urban plans (GUPs) of four Serbian cities - Belgrade, Novi Sad, Niš and Kragujevac - and examines how population ageing is taken into account throughout the planning process and how demographic trends influence planning solutions in terms of spatial structure, housing, mobility and access to services. The study adopts a policy analysis approach that combines a qualitative content analysis of planning documents with a comparative framework based on the World Health Organization’s Age-friendly Cities Framework. Preliminary findings suggest that while demographic trends are occasionally acknowledged, they are rarely translated into spatially informed strategies or participatory mechanisms tailored to older adults. The paper argues that age-friendly planning should go beyond demographic reporting and incorporate age-related needs into the analytical, participatory and normative phases of planning. By linking local planning practices with global frameworks, this study contributes to the discussion on socially just and demographically adapted spatial development.Editor: Natalija Miri
Značaj analiza i studija klimatskih promena za ekonomsku održivost zimskih turističkih centara
No full textKlimatske promene utiču na sve sfere života ljudi, a sektor turizma je jedan od najviše pogođenih nepovoljnim klimatskim uslovima. Planinske regije sa razvijenom zimskom turističkom infrastrukturom suočavaju se sa sve izraženijim ekonomskim izazovima usled nestabilnih vremenskih obrazaca. Zimski planinski turizam zavisi od temperature i količine snežnih padavina, čija varijabilnost izaziva finansijsku nestabilnost preduzeća, gubitak radnih mesta i ekonomski pad na ovim područjima. Analize postojeće literature ukazuju na zabrinjavajuće tendencije sa brojnim društveno-ekonomskim posledicama, uključujući smanjenje prihoda i negativan uticaj na lokalni razvoj. O uticaju klimatskih promena na ovu oblast svedoči i sve veći broj objavljenih naučnih radova. U okviru ove studije dat je pregled literature o efektima klimatskih promena na zimski planinski turizam i analizirane su predložene mere mitigacije i adaptacije u cilju postizanja ekonomske održivosti turističkih centara. Cilj istraživanja je da doprinese daljoj naučnoj raspravi i pruži osnovu za kreiranje lokalnih politika koje će odgovoriti na izazove klimatske krize u turističkom sektoru i pružiti smernice za izradu lokalnih strategija otpornosti, korisne za akademsku zajednicu, donosioce odluka i prostorne planere.Urednici: Dejan Filipović, Velimir Šećerov, Dušan Ristić, Marina Ili
Assessment of groundwater potential zones using GIS and AHP techniques – A case study of the zone of influence of Kolubara Mining Basin
No full textGroundwater forms through infiltration beneath
the Earth’s surface as it moves through various rock layers.
Reliable and sustainable water supplies are predominantly
sourced from underground sources, making them some of
the most important natural resources. The aim of this study is
to assess and identify potential groundwater zones using
Geographic Information Systems, remote sensing, and multicriteria
analysis, specifically the Analytical Hierarchy Process
(AHP), within the Kolubara Mining Basin influence zone in
Serbia. This study considers factors such as rainfall, geology,
slope, river network density, and land use/land cover. These
factorswere evaluated using the Saaty scale to determine their
respective weights. Due to their higher weights, the AHP process
revealed that precipitation and geology are the most
influential factors in groundwater formation. Groundwater
potential zones are categorized into five classes: very low,
low, moderate, high, and very high. These results will enhance
groundwater management at both regional and local levels
and contribute to the future protection of this resource
Doprinos Srpskog geografskog društva zaštiti životne sredine
No full textOsnovano 1910. godine, kao prvo te vrste na Balkanskom poluostrvu, Srpsko geografsko društvo pisanom reči višestruko doprinosi poznavanju zaštite i valorizaije životne sredine. Osnovni zadaci su mu bili naučni i stručni rad na upoznavanju fi zičko-geografskih i društveno-geografskih osobenosti prostora i popularizacija naučno proverenih činjenica o čoveku, društvu i njihovom okruženju. Sveobuhvatni odnosi čoveka i ljudskog društva, postali su neizbežne teme Cvijićeve antropogeografske škole, koja čoveka nije odvajala od prirode, kao i prirodu od čoveka. U obimnoj izdavačkoj delatnosti, koja traje od 1912. godine, Srpsko geografsko društvo je više puta publikovalo naučne radove, stručne radove, monografi je i popularnu literaturu, koja se, direktno i indirektno, odnosi na probleme zaštite, unapređenja i valorizacije životne sredine. Posebno se ističu knjige i radovi: Geografski lik Srbije u doba Prvog ustanka; Kopaonik; Životna sredina i čovek; Ekologija i geografi ja u rešavanju problema životne sredine; Visinsko zoniranje voda u slivu Zapadne Morave; Naši predeli; Zaštita prirode - reke, more, jezera; Biogeografska utemeljenost formiranja mreža zaštićenih prostora; Osvrt na kompleksni pristup proučavanju interakcija čovek (društvo) - priroda; Hidrološka analiza i mere zaštite od poplava u Srbiji u periodu 1999-2009 godine; Ruralni prostor u svetlu koncepcije aktivne zaštite životne sredine; Pozitivni i negativni uticaji turizma na životnu sredinu; Lokacija industrije po metodologiji Ujedinjenih nacija; Recentna erozija - globalni problem sveta; Vodni resursi Srbije, njihovo iskorišćavanje i zaštita; Planiranje životne sredine; Životna sredina - polje integralnog istraživanja u savremenoj geografi ji; Dinamika iskorišćavanja i zaštite voda u svetu do kraja XX veka; Erozija i biljna proizvodnja. Radovi objavljeni u izdanjima Srpskog geografskog društva, bili su, i ostaju, nezaobilazna literatura za dalja istraživanja niza pojava, procesa, objekata i događaja u životnoj sredini.Urednici: Dejan Filipović, Velimir Šećerov, Dušan Ristić, Marina Ili