7103 research outputs found
Sort by
Structured expert judgement for dependence in probabilistic modelling of uncertainty : advances along the dependence elicitation process
Get PDFIn decision and risk analysis problems, modelling uncertainty probabilistically provides key insights and information for decision makers. A common challenge is that uncertainties are typically not isolated but interlinked which introduces complex (and often unexpected) effects on the model output. Therefore, dependence needs to be taken into account and modelled appropriately if simplifying assumptions, such as independence, are not sensible.;Similar to the case of univariate uncertainty, relevant historical data to quantify a (dependence) model are often lacking or too costly to obtain. This may be true even when data on a model's univariate quantities, such as marginal probabilities, are available. Then, specifying dependence between the uncertain variables through expert judgement is the only sensible option. A structured and formal process to the elicitation is essential for ensuring methodological robustness.;This thesis consists of three published works and two papers which are to be published (one under review and one working paper). Two of these works provide comprehensive overviews from different perspectives about the research on dependence elicitation processes. Based on these reviews, novel risk assessment and expert judgement methods are proposed - (1) allowing experts to structure and share their knowledge and beliefs about dependence relationships prior to a quantitative assessment and (2) ensuring experts' (detailed) quantitative assessments are feasible while their elicitation is intuitive.;The original research presented in this thesis is applied in case-studies with experts in real risk modelling contexts for the UK Higher Education sector, terrorism risk and future risk of antibacterial multi-drug resistance.In decision and risk analysis problems, modelling uncertainty probabilistically provides key insights and information for decision makers. A common challenge is that uncertainties are typically not isolated but interlinked which introduces complex (and often unexpected) effects on the model output. Therefore, dependence needs to be taken into account and modelled appropriately if simplifying assumptions, such as independence, are not sensible.;Similar to the case of univariate uncertainty, relevant historical data to quantify a (dependence) model are often lacking or too costly to obtain. This may be true even when data on a model's univariate quantities, such as marginal probabilities, are available. Then, specifying dependence between the uncertain variables through expert judgement is the only sensible option. A structured and formal process to the elicitation is essential for ensuring methodological robustness.;This thesis consists of three published works and two papers which are to be published (one under review and one working paper). Two of these works provide comprehensive overviews from different perspectives about the research on dependence elicitation processes. Based on these reviews, novel risk assessment and expert judgement methods are proposed - (1) allowing experts to structure and share their knowledge and beliefs about dependence relationships prior to a quantitative assessment and (2) ensuring experts' (detailed) quantitative assessments are feasible while their elicitation is intuitive.;The original research presented in this thesis is applied in case-studies with experts in real risk modelling contexts for the UK Higher Education sector, terrorism risk and future risk of antibacterial multi-drug resistance
Model-based optimisation approaches for system energy performance improvement and evaluation
Get PDFPhD by publication, publications listed but not included in the electronic version.The aim of this PhD study is to provide model-based optimisation approaches for system energy performance improvement and evaluation, and such approaches can solve many energy performance related problems, for example, they are able to optimise conveyor belt system energy performance, avoid ramp rate violation problem in the periodic implementation of dynamic economic dispatch solutions, reduce the number of voltage sensors in photovoltaic (PV) fault diagnosis, improve PV maximum power generation through rearranging PV modules, and also measure and verify energy savings.;For this purpose, three objectives are set in this study: i) To summarise existing model-based optimisation approaches for energy system modelling; ii) To apply obtained modelling methodologies in energy performance optimisation; and iii) To apply obtained modelling methodologies in energy performance evaluation. In order to achieve these objectives, the relevant theoretical preparations on model-based optimisation approaches for energy modelling are developed and then applied in these practical energy problems.;This thesis presents my contributions on modelling methodologies for energy performance optimisation, applications of these modelling methods in industrial energy systems, power generation dispatch, PV array fault diagnosis, and PV array power generation maximisation through rearrangement. Mathematical models are derived for energy system performance evaluation, optimal control models are introduced to minimise measurement and verification cost, and physical modelling and data regression modelling methodologies are also applied in practical measurement and verification projects on air conditioner intelligent switch control and heat pump water heaters. Weakness of these obtained results are analysed, and future work is presented too.The aim of this PhD study is to provide model-based optimisation approaches for system energy performance improvement and evaluation, and such approaches can solve many energy performance related problems, for example, they are able to optimise conveyor belt system energy performance, avoid ramp rate violation problem in the periodic implementation of dynamic economic dispatch solutions, reduce the number of voltage sensors in photovoltaic (PV) fault diagnosis, improve PV maximum power generation through rearranging PV modules, and also measure and verify energy savings.;For this purpose, three objectives are set in this study: i) To summarise existing model-based optimisation approaches for energy system modelling; ii) To apply obtained modelling methodologies in energy performance optimisation; and iii) To apply obtained modelling methodologies in energy performance evaluation. In order to achieve these objectives, the relevant theoretical preparations on model-based optimisation approaches for energy modelling are developed and then applied in these practical energy problems.;This thesis presents my contributions on modelling methodologies for energy performance optimisation, applications of these modelling methods in industrial energy systems, power generation dispatch, PV array fault diagnosis, and PV array power generation maximisation through rearrangement. Mathematical models are derived for energy system performance evaluation, optimal control models are introduced to minimise measurement and verification cost, and physical modelling and data regression modelling methodologies are also applied in practical measurement and verification projects on air conditioner intelligent switch control and heat pump water heaters. Weakness of these obtained results are analysed, and future work is presented too
Experimental investigation of the emission of high-brightness extreme ultraviolet radiation from laser-plasma interactions
No full textThis thesis was previously held under moratorium from 4/11/2019 to 07/11/2023The laser wakefield accelerator is a novel particle accelerator that takes advantage of the large electric fields generated by separating oppositely charged particles in plasma. The ponderomotive force of an intense, ultra-short duration, laser pulse drives density waves in under-dense plasma to create an accelerating structure similar to that of a radio-frequency cavity, but with a longitudinal field strength more than a thousand times larger, and travelling at a velocity close to that of light. Electrons can gain a sufficiently high longitudinal velocity on reaching the back of the accelerating structure to become trapped inside it. These injected electrons then “surf” the plasma wave to reach energies that can exceed several GeV on the centimetre scale. This enables millimetre sized acceleration stages that act as ultra-compact table-top sources of both high energy particles and radiation beams.To date, theoretical and experimental work on radiation production from the laser wakefield accelerator has focussed on the emission of few keV to 1 MeV photons from electrons undergoing betatron oscillations inside the plasma structure. This thesis, in contrast, presents one of the first experimental investigations of radiation emitted at extreme ultraviolet wavelengths approaching the water window. The spectral, spatial and coherence properties of radiation beams produced by the laser plasma interaction are measured. In addition, a Kirkpatrick-Baez microscope focusing optic is developed for proof-of-principle application experiments to demonstrate the usefulness of the source. The spectra of hard x-ray betatron radiation is measured and first tests of the Kirkpatrick-Baez microscope undertaken to focus the radiation to a small spot size.Extreme ultraviolet (XUV) radiation has been observed between 3 and 31 nm with a large number of photons (7.6 × 1013 photons sr−1 at 20 nm) passing through the spectrometer slit. Measurements with a series of double slits show that the source has a high degree of longitudinal coherence with a source size diameter of 50 μm. The source size and spectral measurements give a calculated peak brightness of 6.4 × 1027 photons/s/mm2/mrad2/0.1% BW, occurring at 7.5 nm, assuming the duration of the radiation pulse is Fourier limited to 11 as.The laser wakefield accelerator is a novel particle accelerator that takes advantage of the large electric fields generated by separating oppositely charged particles in plasma. The ponderomotive force of an intense, ultra-short duration, laser pulse drives density waves in under-dense plasma to create an accelerating structure similar to that of a radio-frequency cavity, but with a longitudinal field strength more than a thousand times larger, and travelling at a velocity close to that of light. Electrons can gain a sufficiently high longitudinal velocity on reaching the back of the accelerating structure to become trapped inside it. These injected electrons then “surf” the plasma wave to reach energies that can exceed several GeV on the centimetre scale. This enables millimetre sized acceleration stages that act as ultra-compact table-top sources of both high energy particles and radiation beams.To date, theoretical and experimental work on radiation production from the laser wakefield accelerator has focussed on the emission of few keV to 1 MeV photons from electrons undergoing betatron oscillations inside the plasma structure. This thesis, in contrast, presents one of the first experimental investigations of radiation emitted at extreme ultraviolet wavelengths approaching the water window. The spectral, spatial and coherence properties of radiation beams produced by the laser plasma interaction are measured. In addition, a Kirkpatrick-Baez microscope focusing optic is developed for proof-of-principle application experiments to demonstrate the usefulness of the source. The spectra of hard x-ray betatron radiation is measured and first tests of the Kirkpatrick-Baez microscope undertaken to focus the radiation to a small spot size.Extreme ultraviolet (XUV) radiation has been observed between 3 and 31 nm with a large number of photons (7.6 × 1013 photons sr−1 at 20 nm) passing through the spectrometer slit. Measurements with a series of double slits show that the source has a high degree of longitudinal coherence with a source size diameter of 50 μm. The source size and spectral measurements give a calculated peak brightness of 6.4 × 1027 photons/s/mm2/mrad2/0.1% BW, occurring at 7.5 nm, assuming the duration of the radiation pulse is Fourier limited to 11 as
Excluded
No full textMRes in Creative WritingThe following pages will contain a creative piece and critical analysis detailing the history of gender-based discrimination in the alternative music scene. The creative piece Excluded closely follows Malcolm, a punk turned band manager who attempts to mentor an all-girl punk band. Various expectations and hurdles forces Malcolm to retreat to the security of the conventional male line-up. The critical analysis explores male music icons and the role they played in creating environments which place women below men in the music industry. It also recognises the business of music venues and other factors which causes audiences and promoters to shy aware from challenging ideas in favour of money making opportunities.The following pages will contain a creative piece and critical analysis detailing the history of gender-based discrimination in the alternative music scene. The creative piece Excluded closely follows Malcolm, a punk turned band manager who attempts to mentor an all-girl punk band. Various expectations and hurdles forces Malcolm to retreat to the security of the conventional male line-up. The critical analysis explores male music icons and the role they played in creating environments which place women below men in the music industry. It also recognises the business of music venues and other factors which causes audiences and promoters to shy aware from challenging ideas in favour of money making opportunities
CFD modelling and investigation of two-stroke dual-fuel marine engines with high pressure gas admission
Get PDFDue to their durability, cost-effectiveness and high efficiency, the large two-stroke marine engines are widely used by the merchant ships. However, as the conventional two-stroke diesel engines suffer from the high pollutants emissions, the dual fuel versions burning natural gas and pilot fuel to initiate combustion is an alternative, which can considerably reduce the engine environmental footprint. The application of the high pressure and direct injection of the natural gas can remarkably benefit the emissions. In order to understand in-depth the full-cycle operating processes in a two-stroke dual fuel marine engine with high-pressure gas direct injection, the related CFD models were customized and developed by the use of ANSYS Fluent, and validated by employing available experimental data. Subsequently, the parametric investigation of the dual fuel injection was conducted and the recommended sets of design parameters are identified. Furthermore, the internal processes in the whole cycle of the engine dual fuel and the diesel operating mode were analysed and compared.The spray process of the liquid/pilot fuel was modelled and validated by the available experimental data, taking into account the variable Thermophysical liquid fuel properties with the ambient conditions. Aiming to develop the models for the high-pressure gas injection, the conserving-equation sources approach was developed, considering the effects of the barrel-shaped shocks patterns near the nozzle exit. The derived CFD models were validated by the published measured penetrations of nitrogen injection under two pressure ratios values.As the diffusion flame dominates in the high-pressure direct injection (HPDI) gas combustion, the non-premixed dual fuel combustion model was developed, in which the pilot fuel combustion was treated as the ignition kernel. Based on the measurements in the rapid compression and expansion machine (RCEM), the derived heat release rate (HRR) and the NO emission was used to validate the CFD results. By comparing the results of the two investigated non-premixed combustion models, the steady flamelet diffusion model was recommended, where the reaction rates of Hanson and Salimian (1984) for the extended Zeldvich mechanism were applied.In order to determine the injection and geometric parameters of dual fuel operation in the marine engine S60ME, the parametric research of HPDI, combustion processes was conducted with the aim to maintain the power level and reduce the NO and CO2 emissions. The investigated parameters included the dual fuel injection timing, the gas injection duration, the lateral angle of gas nozzle, the holes number of gas injector, and the different inclination angle for each gas hole.Based on the results of the conducted parametric study, the dual fuel design parameters for the marine engine S60ME were recommended. By using the developed dual fuel combustion models, the whole-cycle processes in the large two-stroke marine dual fuel engine were investigated, by comparing the diesel model operating mode. The results indicated that the NO and CO2 emissions for the dual fuel mode were lower than that of the diesel mode by 31% and 21% respectively. The diffusion flame for the diesel mode was located downstream the liquid vapour plumes, whilst the dual fuel mode exhibited the high-temperature flame in the vicinity of the stoichiometric surface of the gas plumes. Moreover, the diesel mode achieved the higher flame temperature than the dual fuel mode. Due to the lower carbon dioxide (CO2) for the duel fuel combustion, the scavenging efficiency for the dual fuel mode was 4.2% higher than that of the diesel mode.Due to their durability, cost-effectiveness and high efficiency, the large two-stroke marine engines are widely used by the merchant ships. However, as the conventional two-stroke diesel engines suffer from the high pollutants emissions, the dual fuel versions burning natural gas and pilot fuel to initiate combustion is an alternative, which can considerably reduce the engine environmental footprint. The application of the high pressure and direct injection of the natural gas can remarkably benefit the emissions. In order to understand in-depth the full-cycle operating processes in a two-stroke dual fuel marine engine with high-pressure gas direct injection, the related CFD models were customized and developed by the use of ANSYS Fluent, and validated by employing available experimental data. Subsequently, the parametric investigation of the dual fuel injection was conducted and the recommended sets of design parameters are identified. Furthermore, the internal processes in the whole cycle of the engine dual fuel and the diesel operating mode were analysed and compared.The spray process of the liquid/pilot fuel was modelled and validated by the available experimental data, taking into account the variable Thermophysical liquid fuel properties with the ambient conditions. Aiming to develop the models for the high-pressure gas injection, the conserving-equation sources approach was developed, considering the effects of the barrel-shaped shocks patterns near the nozzle exit. The derived CFD models were validated by the published measured penetrations of nitrogen injection under two pressure ratios values.As the diffusion flame dominates in the high-pressure direct injection (HPDI) gas combustion, the non-premixed dual fuel combustion model was developed, in which the pilot fuel combustion was treated as the ignition kernel. Based on the measurements in the rapid compression and expansion machine (RCEM), the derived heat release rate (HRR) and the NO emission was used to validate the CFD results. By comparing the results of the two investigated non-premixed combustion models, the steady flamelet diffusion model was recommended, where the reaction rates of Hanson and Salimian (1984) for the extended Zeldvich mechanism were applied.In order to determine the injection and geometric parameters of dual fuel operation in the marine engine S60ME, the parametric research of HPDI, combustion processes was conducted with the aim to maintain the power level and reduce the NO and CO2 emissions. The investigated parameters included the dual fuel injection timing, the gas injection duration, the lateral angle of gas nozzle, the holes number of gas injector, and the different inclination angle for each gas hole.Based on the results of the conducted parametric study, the dual fuel design parameters for the marine engine S60ME were recommended. By using the developed dual fuel combustion models, the whole-cycle processes in the large two-stroke marine dual fuel engine were investigated, by comparing the diesel model operating mode. The results indicated that the NO and CO2 emissions for the dual fuel mode were lower than that of the diesel mode by 31% and 21% respectively. The diffusion flame for the diesel mode was located downstream the liquid vapour plumes, whilst the dual fuel mode exhibited the high-temperature flame in the vicinity of the stoichiometric surface of the gas plumes. Moreover, the diesel mode achieved the higher flame temperature than the dual fuel mode. Due to the lower carbon dioxide (CO2) for the duel fuel combustion, the scavenging efficiency for the dual fuel mode was 4.2% higher than that of the diesel mode
Intoxicants and the Indian colonial army : consumption and control, 1857-1919
Get PDFBetween 1857 and 1919 the military hierarchy of the Indian Army had to learn to carefully control and manage colonial regiments. Indian soldiers elected to serve under the British, they did not do so from patriotism or a desire to subjugate India. Instead they fought for a mixture of incentives and a special relationship with their imperial rulers based on consensus and compromise. One of these compromises involved intoxicants as the wide variety of social groups who joined enjoyed a range of different drugs and alcohols. This project seeks to assess how the European component of Anglo-Indian forces considered, understood and reacted to these habits. It traces attitudes towards intoxicants in relation to key medical, military and political debates from the time of the Indian Mutiny where the European fear of the sepoy army was grounded. Military responses were from then on crucial in deciding policies based on these fears. They played a key role in combatting antinarcotic movements in India and later internationally. Throughout the First World War, the habits of sepoys were of key concern as the habitual user depended upon his source of intoxicants to function. Such examinations challenge the current understanding of those dominated by empire while adding to studies which underline the complex relationship between the British and Indian soldiers. Looking closely at the European attitudes and responses serves as a lens through which to observe and understand the complexities of governing colonial forces and the influence of the latter in deciding policy.Between 1857 and 1919 the military hierarchy of the Indian Army had to learn to carefully control and manage colonial regiments. Indian soldiers elected to serve under the British, they did not do so from patriotism or a desire to subjugate India. Instead they fought for a mixture of incentives and a special relationship with their imperial rulers based on consensus and compromise. One of these compromises involved intoxicants as the wide variety of social groups who joined enjoyed a range of different drugs and alcohols. This project seeks to assess how the European component of Anglo-Indian forces considered, understood and reacted to these habits. It traces attitudes towards intoxicants in relation to key medical, military and political debates from the time of the Indian Mutiny where the European fear of the sepoy army was grounded. Military responses were from then on crucial in deciding policies based on these fears. They played a key role in combatting antinarcotic movements in India and later internationally. Throughout the First World War, the habits of sepoys were of key concern as the habitual user depended upon his source of intoxicants to function. Such examinations challenge the current understanding of those dominated by empire while adding to studies which underline the complex relationship between the British and Indian soldiers. Looking closely at the European attitudes and responses serves as a lens through which to observe and understand the complexities of governing colonial forces and the influence of the latter in deciding policy
Combination of reliability tools and artificial intelligence in a hybrid condition monitoring framework for ship machinery systems
Get PDFInadequate ship machinery maintenance can increase equipment failure posing a threat to the environment, affecting performance, having a great impact in terms of business losses by reducing ship availability, increasing downtime and moreover increasing the potential of major accidents occurring and endangering lives on-board. With high cost of ownership and overburdened crew, ship maintenance has become one of the major challenges in the marine industry. Though the industry is still predominantly reliant on a time-based, prescriptive approach to maintenance, technological advances, heightened expectation and competitive requirements as to ship availability and efficiency and the influence of the data revolution on vessel operations, have resulted in considerable interest in advanced maintenance techniques and favour a properly structured condition-based maintenance regime. In this respect, this thesis develops a hybrid framework oriented towards ship machinery condition monitoring utilising a combination of reliability tools (Fault Tree Analysis, Failure Modes & Effects Analysis, Reliability Block Diagrams) and data-driven approaches based on artificial neural networks (Self-Organising Maps, Nonlinear Autoregressive, Multilayer Perceptron). The above assist in identifying critical ship machinery systems and components and subsequently monitoring their condition through the employment of data clustering, time series forecasting, diagnostic and health assessment, leading to advisory generation of appropriate maintenance actions and recommendations. The above framework is applied to the case study of a Panamax container ship main engine for system, subsystem and component level and the results are validated with actual data recorded onboard. Sensitivity and cost benefit analysis are also presented. Key results include amongst others the identification of critical systems through a systematic approach, the ability of the Self-Organising Map to cluster data and monitor the status of the main engine and the forecasting capabilities of the Nonlinear Autoregressive time series neural networks to analyse available main engine data with high forecasting accuracy.Keywords: Artificial neural networks, data analysis, reliability tools, condition monitoring, predictive maintenance, maritime industryInadequate ship machinery maintenance can increase equipment failure posing a threat to the environment, affecting performance, having a great impact in terms of business losses by reducing ship availability, increasing downtime and moreover increasing the potential of major accidents occurring and endangering lives on-board. With high cost of ownership and overburdened crew, ship maintenance has become one of the major challenges in the marine industry. Though the industry is still predominantly reliant on a time-based, prescriptive approach to maintenance, technological advances, heightened expectation and competitive requirements as to ship availability and efficiency and the influence of the data revolution on vessel operations, have resulted in considerable interest in advanced maintenance techniques and favour a properly structured condition-based maintenance regime. In this respect, this thesis develops a hybrid framework oriented towards ship machinery condition monitoring utilising a combination of reliability tools (Fault Tree Analysis, Failure Modes & Effects Analysis, Reliability Block Diagrams) and data-driven approaches based on artificial neural networks (Self-Organising Maps, Nonlinear Autoregressive, Multilayer Perceptron). The above assist in identifying critical ship machinery systems and components and subsequently monitoring their condition through the employment of data clustering, time series forecasting, diagnostic and health assessment, leading to advisory generation of appropriate maintenance actions and recommendations. The above framework is applied to the case study of a Panamax container ship main engine for system, subsystem and component level and the results are validated with actual data recorded onboard. Sensitivity and cost benefit analysis are also presented. Key results include amongst others the identification of critical systems through a systematic approach, the ability of the Self-Organising Map to cluster data and monitor the status of the main engine and the forecasting capabilities of the Nonlinear Autoregressive time series neural networks to analyse available main engine data with high forecasting accuracy.Keywords: Artificial neural networks, data analysis, reliability tools, condition monitoring, predictive maintenance, maritime industr
Design and development of halodeboronation methods for organic synthesis
Get PDFBoronic acids and derivatives are one of the most useful classes of compounds in organic synthesis. Methodologies involving diboron systems have emerged recently as a rapid and powerful approach to synthesize complex molecules. Selectivity in these systems is a key aspect and is typically achieved through protecting group strategies. In this approach one boron species is rendered inert under reaction conditions, while the unprotected boron residue can be selectively manipulated. Nonetheless those methods have the drawback of requiring additional actions to allow subsequent functionalisation (such as removal of the protecting group), which limits overall efficiency. However, unprotected diboron systems can undergo a series of equilibria while in solution, which can lead to side reactions and therefore by-products or mixture of products. For instance, inorganic base in reaction mixtures can trigger speciation between the boron compounds, leading to a complex scramble of starting materials and therefore products. The work described in this manuscript investigated the possibility of conducting a chemoselective chlorination, implementing non-protected diboron systems. This would allow the discriminatory functionalisation of boronic acids in the presence of BPin esters, selectively generating an electrophile species in situ. By successfully performing the selective halogenation, the development of the first selective di-nucleophile Suzuki-Miyaura cross-coupling reaction employing two distinct boron species was endeavoured and accomplished. The chemoselectivity in this case could be achieved by a selective activation of boronic acid species over boronic ester in the reaction mixture. The activation of boronic acids approach was then applied to synthesise SPECT imaging agents. The developed technique would provide a metal-free alternative towards the usual metal-catalysed iododeboronation processes.Boronic acids and derivatives are one of the most useful classes of compounds in organic synthesis. Methodologies involving diboron systems have emerged recently as a rapid and powerful approach to synthesize complex molecules. Selectivity in these systems is a key aspect and is typically achieved through protecting group strategies. In this approach one boron species is rendered inert under reaction conditions, while the unprotected boron residue can be selectively manipulated. Nonetheless those methods have the drawback of requiring additional actions to allow subsequent functionalisation (such as removal of the protecting group), which limits overall efficiency. However, unprotected diboron systems can undergo a series of equilibria while in solution, which can lead to side reactions and therefore by-products or mixture of products. For instance, inorganic base in reaction mixtures can trigger speciation between the boron compounds, leading to a complex scramble of starting materials and therefore products. The work described in this manuscript investigated the possibility of conducting a chemoselective chlorination, implementing non-protected diboron systems. This would allow the discriminatory functionalisation of boronic acids in the presence of BPin esters, selectively generating an electrophile species in situ. By successfully performing the selective halogenation, the development of the first selective di-nucleophile Suzuki-Miyaura cross-coupling reaction employing two distinct boron species was endeavoured and accomplished. The chemoselectivity in this case could be achieved by a selective activation of boronic acid species over boronic ester in the reaction mixture. The activation of boronic acids approach was then applied to synthesise SPECT imaging agents. The developed technique would provide a metal-free alternative towards the usual metal-catalysed iododeboronation processes
Examining the potential economic impacts of Scottish offshore wind developments
Get PDFSince the turn of the century there has been significant change in Scottish energy policy, with climate change mitigation being a key objective. To meet policy objectives the Scottish Government has set out a wide range of targets with the most ambitious being to meet the equivalent to 100% of gross electricity demand from renewables by 2020. With Scotland having the highest offshore wind resource in Europe (25% of the total) it is expected that offshore wind will be important in reaching this target, and there are currently several wind farms in development. Recently there has been a focus on the possible economic development resulting from large scale renewable projects. This is the primary motivation of this thesis - examining the potential economic impacts arising from the development of Scottish offshore energy wind capacity.In this thesis there are six chapters, with the first being an introduction to Scottish energy policy; the evolution to the electricity network, and wind energy in Scotland. The purpose of this chapter is to provide the reader with the necessary background to understand the context of this thesis.;Chapter 2 details the development of an Electricity Satellite Account (ElSA) framework, from which we create an ElSA for Scotland for 2012. Satellite accounts have been used extensively to improve the System of National Accounts (SNA) by extending the analysis of sectors which are not well represented in that framework (with the most common satellite account being for tourism). In the standard SNA framework the electricity sector is represented by a single sector which incorporates generation, transmission, distribution and sales, raising a number of problems for meaningful economic analysis. The development of an ElSA allows a better understanding of the interactions between electricity generation and consumption and the economy. This is the first attempt (to our knowledge) to develop an ElSA has been development and as such we take elements of the Tourism Satellite Account (TSA) framework and modify these to develop a satellite account for the electricity sector in Scotland.;The development of an ElSA not only allows for a better understanding of the linkages between the electricity sector and the economy, it can be used to disaggregate the electricity sector within the IO tables - data which in turn feeds into a number of popular macroeconomic models. This is the focus of Chapter 3. The disaggregation of the electricity sector is not new endeavour, there are several examples of this being carried out. However the contributions of this chapter is that, using the ElSA information, we develop and apply a "hybrid" methodology which accounts for the variations in electricity price. There are examples in the literature noting the problem disaggregating based on volume of electricity (Jones et al, 2010; Algrain et al 2014) and this is the first known attempted of accounting for the variation.In Chapter 4 the disaggregated IO table from Chapter 3 is used to create an IO model which is used to investigate the macroeconomic impacts from the development of offshore wind capacity in Scotland. Several different scenarios - single farm; planned capacity and future growth - are modelled in this chapter with particular attention paid to the local content (an increasingly important policy issue). The two contributions of this chapter are the investigation on the cumulative economic impacts of planned Scottish offshore wind developments and the impact of changes in local content.;IO models have well known assumptions- most notably a passive supply side and fixed prices. In Chapter 5 we relax these assumptions by using a CGE model based on the AMOS framework with disaggregated electricity sector, which again uses the disaggregation from Chapter 3. This AMOS framework allows for the impacts of many more variables (compared to IO) to be examined and we use this model to simulate the same scenarios as Chapter 4. The contribution of this chapter is that this is the first time the economic impacts of development of offshore wind energy capacity in Scotland have been modelled through a CGE framework.Finally, the thesis concludes in Chapter 6 with detail of potential avenues of future work.Since the turn of the century there has been significant change in Scottish energy policy, with climate change mitigation being a key objective. To meet policy objectives the Scottish Government has set out a wide range of targets with the most ambitious being to meet the equivalent to 100% of gross electricity demand from renewables by 2020. With Scotland having the highest offshore wind resource in Europe (25% of the total) it is expected that offshore wind will be important in reaching this target, and there are currently several wind farms in development. Recently there has been a focus on the possible economic development resulting from large scale renewable projects. This is the primary motivation of this thesis - examining the potential economic impacts arising from the development of Scottish offshore energy wind capacity.In this thesis there are six chapters, with the first being an introduction to Scottish energy policy; the evolution to the electricity network, and wind energy in Scotland. The purpose of this chapter is to provide the reader with the necessary background to understand the context of this thesis.;Chapter 2 details the development of an Electricity Satellite Account (ElSA) framework, from which we create an ElSA for Scotland for 2012. Satellite accounts have been used extensively to improve the System of National Accounts (SNA) by extending the analysis of sectors which are not well represented in that framework (with the most common satellite account being for tourism). In the standard SNA framework the electricity sector is represented by a single sector which incorporates generation, transmission, distribution and sales, raising a number of problems for meaningful economic analysis. The development of an ElSA allows a better understanding of the interactions between electricity generation and consumption and the economy. This is the first attempt (to our knowledge) to develop an ElSA has been development and as such we take elements of the Tourism Satellite Account (TSA) framework and modify these to develop a satellite account for the electricity sector in Scotland.;The development of an ElSA not only allows for a better understanding of the linkages between the electricity sector and the economy, it can be used to disaggregate the electricity sector within the IO tables - data which in turn feeds into a number of popular macroeconomic models. This is the focus of Chapter 3. The disaggregation of the electricity sector is not new endeavour, there are several examples of this being carried out. However the contributions of this chapter is that, using the ElSA information, we develop and apply a "hybrid" methodology which accounts for the variations in electricity price. There are examples in the literature noting the problem disaggregating based on volume of electricity (Jones et al, 2010; Algrain et al 2014) and this is the first known attempted of accounting for the variation.In Chapter 4 the disaggregated IO table from Chapter 3 is used to create an IO model which is used to investigate the macroeconomic impacts from the development of offshore wind capacity in Scotland. Several different scenarios - single farm; planned capacity and future growth - are modelled in this chapter with particular attention paid to the local content (an increasingly important policy issue). The two contributions of this chapter are the investigation on the cumulative economic impacts of planned Scottish offshore wind developments and the impact of changes in local content.;IO models have well known assumptions- most notably a passive supply side and fixed prices. In Chapter 5 we relax these assumptions by using a CGE model based on the AMOS framework with disaggregated electricity sector, which again uses the disaggregation from Chapter 3. This AMOS framework allows for the impacts of many more variables (compared to IO) to be examined and we use this model to simulate the same scenarios as Chapter 4. The contribution of this chapter is that this is the first time the economic impacts of development of offshore wind energy capacity in Scotland have been modelled through a CGE framework.Finally, the thesis concludes in Chapter 6 with detail of potential avenues of future work
Development and testing of early detection systems for seasonal and pandemic influenza
Get PDFMedical and statistical studies and research have shown that respiratory viruses are important and dangerous to human life.Daily data were studied for Acute Respiratory Illness (ARI) and influenza-like illness (ILI)consultations for surveillance for influenza from all 14 health boards (HBs) in Scotland.The National Health Service (NHS) provided the data from 2009 to 2014.The weekly case ratio (WCR) method, developed for pandemic detection, may be a useful way of detecting seasonal influenza. The target is to find a simple way to extend the WCR method and compare it to other well established systems. This method is based on two terms, the value of WCR defined as the total influenza rates reported to all GPs in week w divided by the total rates in week w - 1 and NHB defined as the number of HBs which have a WCR > 1. We use daily data for ILI consultations. The starting point is using Scotland data to investigate how effective the WCR method would be for Scotland data.We then extend this situation, through simulation based upon the Scottish data to have more than 14 HBs with the same structure as Scotland.The next step is to develop the WCR algorithm for smaller spatial areas. We created another data structure using 30, 40 and 50 HBs from the original Scottish data, using different population size structures, then simulated more than 3,000,000 cases of ILI,considering the rate as at during the year, then we got the joint distribution for WCR and NHB in the case of no epidemic.We attempted to identify a rejection region for a test using the null joint distribution between WCR and NHB. The modified WCR system exceeds performance of other systems in some circumstances.Medical and statistical studies and research have shown that respiratory viruses are important and dangerous to human life.Daily data were studied for Acute Respiratory Illness (ARI) and influenza-like illness (ILI)consultations for surveillance for influenza from all 14 health boards (HBs) in Scotland.The National Health Service (NHS) provided the data from 2009 to 2014.The weekly case ratio (WCR) method, developed for pandemic detection, may be a useful way of detecting seasonal influenza. The target is to find a simple way to extend the WCR method and compare it to other well established systems. This method is based on two terms, the value of WCR defined as the total influenza rates reported to all GPs in week w divided by the total rates in week w - 1 and NHB defined as the number of HBs which have a WCR > 1. We use daily data for ILI consultations. The starting point is using Scotland data to investigate how effective the WCR method would be for Scotland data.We then extend this situation, through simulation based upon the Scottish data to have more than 14 HBs with the same structure as Scotland.The next step is to develop the WCR algorithm for smaller spatial areas. We created another data structure using 30, 40 and 50 HBs from the original Scottish data, using different population size structures, then simulated more than 3,000,000 cases of ILI,considering the rate as at during the year, then we got the joint distribution for WCR and NHB in the case of no epidemic.We attempted to identify a rejection region for a test using the null joint distribution between WCR and NHB. The modified WCR system exceeds performance of other systems in some circumstances
Access Repository Dashboard
Do you manage STAX (Strathclyde Repository)? Access insider analytics, issue reports and manage access to outputs from your repository in the CORE Repository Dashboard!