E-Journal Politeknik Negeri Samarinda
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A Pathway to Overcome the Crisis
No full textSouth Sudan’s socio-economic outcomes have worsened over the past decade due to recurrent conflicts, fragility, and macroeconomic mismanagement compounded by global economic and climate shocks. Even before the oil shock of early 2024, per capita gross domestic product had dropped by 18 percent relative to its 2015 level, with prices rising 93-fold over this period. The erosion in living standards has left three in four people in poverty as of 2022. This dire situation is the result of (i) nascent institutions and weak governance; (ii) persistent mismanagement of the country’s abundant natural capital, namely, oil; and (iii) recurrent community-level conflicts and violence that led to nationwide armed conflict in 2016 and localized ongoing conflict after the 2018 peace agreement. Overlapping exogenous shocks such as the COVID-19 pandemic and historic flooding have also impeded economic recovery. Macroeconomic policy challenges, characterized by the need for stronger monetary and fiscal policy frameworks and improved policy coordination, have contributed to economic imbalances and increased vulnerability to shocks. A complex global economic outlook presents heightened risks for South Sudan and underscores the need for immediate action. Escalating conflicts and geopolitical tensions, increased inflation, and slower economic growth in the world’s major economies pose substantial risks to the global outlook. Additionally, potential reductions in global aid and humanitarian support may have material consequences, as South Sudan is a large recipient of aid amounting to an estimated annual average of 23.8 percent of GDP during 2020-24.3 Against this challenging background, South Sudan is at a critical juncture in its development trajectory and the government has a decision to make about the economic path it chooses as the country moves forward
Determinants of Bank Interest Spreads in Tajikistan
No full textDespite far-reaching banking sector
reforms over the past few years, financial intermediation in
Tajikistan continues to lag behind structural peers and the
Caucasus and Central Asia region. At the same time, bank
interest rate spreads, a standard measure of financial
intermediation costs, have remained significantly higher
than those of peers, ranking among the highest in the world.
This paper examines the determinants of interest rate
spreads in Tajikistan using a bank-level panel data set for
the first quarter of 2011 to the fourth quarter of 2022. The
findings show that bank-specific factors, particularly
income diversification, loan size, risk aversion, market
power, credit risk, and the macroeconomic and institutional
environment within which banks operate, explain a large
proportion of cross-bank, cross-time variation in spreads.
The results suggest that there is ample room to promote
economies of scale and enhance competition in the banking
system while strengthening the operating environment
Women’s Mobility and Labor Supply: Experimental Evidence from Pakistan
No full textThis paper studies whether commuting barriers constrain women’s labor supply in urban Pakistan. This study randomized offers of gender-segregated or mixed-gender commuting services at varying prices. Women-only transport more than doubled job application rates, while mixed-gender transport had minimal effects on men’s and women’s application rates. Women valued the women-only service more than large price discounts for the mixed-gender service. The results are similar for baseline labor force participants and non-participants, suggesting there are many “latent jobseekers’’ close to the margin of participation. These findings highlight the importance of safety and propriety concerns in women’s labor decisions
Review and Guidance on ECD Assessment Tools in FCV Contexts
No full textBy 2030, an estimated two-thirds of
the world's extremely poor could be concentrated in
countries and contexts characterized by fragility, conflict,
and violence (FCV) (World Bank Group, 2020). FCV contexts,
affected by humanitarian crises, prolonged emergencies, and
armed conflicts, are significant hindrances to poverty
reduction and sustainable development. The cycle of
instability and violence in these contexts often leads to
the destruction of infrastructure and a strain on resources,
making it difficult for communities to lift themselves out
of poverty and achieve sustainable development goals. The
list of FCV contexts includes the World Bank list of
countries and territories affected by fragility and conflict
situations (FCS), as well as countries suffering from
violence and those with large-forcibly displaced populations
that are not included in the FCS list. This review aims to
describe which early childhood development (ECD) measurement
tools have been used in FCV contexts and to serve as a guide
for tool selection in these settings. This guidance is
intended to assist country teams in identifying appropriate
tools for ECD measurement activities, provided that such
activities are already recognized as priorities. While
parents and caregivers are essential to ECD, particularly in
FCV environments, this review does not concern tools that
measure adults' well-being or parenting-related
outcomes. Instead, it measures children's developmental
outcomes and other child-related constructs relevant to FCV
contexts. The authors briefly describe the situation of
children living in FCV contexts and how it can affect their
development. We then make a case for the importance of ECD
measurement, the lack of data on ECD in FCV contexts, and
the data collection challenges. After that, we provide a
deep dive into what was found in the desk review and provide
a framework for tool selection. Finally, we present policy recommendations
Unlivable: Confronting Extreme Urban Heat in Latin America and the Caribbean
No full textThis report examines the growing threat of heat in cities across Latin America and
the Caribbean, including the outlook for the coming decades; the implications for
urban infrastructure and for human health, well-being, and prosperity; and what urban leaders and national governments can do to mitigate the risks, particularly for the most vulnerable people
A Simple Approach to Identifying Global and Local Overperformers in AI Preparedness
No full textThis paper examines global
disparities in artificial intelligence preparedness, using
the 2023 Artificial Intelligence Preparedness Index
developed by the International Monetary Fund alongside the
multidimensional Economic Complexity Index. The proposed
methodology identifies both global and local overperformers
by comparing actual artificial intelligence readiness scores
to predictions based on economic complexity, offering a
comprehensive assessment of national artificial intelligence
capabilities. The findings highlight the varying
significance of regulation and ethics frameworks, digital
infrastructure, as well as human capital and labor market
development in driving artificial intelligence
overperformance across different income levels. Through case
studies, including Singapore, Northern Europe, Malaysia,
Kazakhstan, Ghana, Rwanda, and emerging demographic giants
like China and India, the analysis illustrates how even
resource-constrained nations can achieve substantial
artificial intelligence advancements through strategic
investments and coherent policies. The study underscores the
need for offering actionable insights to foster peer
learning and knowledge-sharing among countries. It concludes
with recommendations for improving artificial intelligence
preparedness metrics and calls for future research to
incorporate cognitive and cultural dimensions into readiness frameworks
Links Between Forced Displacement, Conflict and Intimate Partner Violence in Colombia and Liberia
No full textDisplacement and conflict substantially heighten the risk of gender-based violence including intimate partner violence (IPV), experienced by women and girls. This study aims to examine the links between conflict, forced displacement and IPV using nationally representative survey data measuring IPV combined with data on conflict-related violence from two different conflict-affected settings: Colombia and Liberia. We find that forced displacement is strongly associated with increased lifetime and past year IPV. Displaced women and girls in Colombia and Liberia have a 36 and 55 per cent, respectively greater risk of experiencing past year IPV and 39 and 49 per cent greater risk of experiencing lifetime IPV in each country respectively, compared to their non-displaced counterparts. Both conflict and displacement are independently and significantly associated with past year IPV. Taking conflict intensity into account increases the associated IPV risk to 40 and 60 per cent in Colombia and Liberia respectively. Recognising the increased prevalence of IPV for displaced women is vital to providing effective assistance. Humanitarian, state and peace-building efforts, should encompass the provision of a range of assistance services to help displaced and conflict-affected women heal from the impacts of the violence
Cambodia Green Jobs: How the Greening of the Cambodian Economy can Impact Cambodia’s Jobs and how to Prepare the Workforce
No full textThis report aims to fill the knowledge gap on green jobs by better defining them in Cambodia and establishing a baseline on their prevalence, their trends, their task content, and their key characteristics. The report intends to add the information base needed to align the education and training systems with the workforce skills needed to perform well in green jobs, to ensure the workforce optimally contributes to and benefits from the green transition. The report adopts two approaches in measuring green jobs: (i) task-based: Using the tasks performed on the job; and (ii) output-based: Using the product or output produced by the job. These approaches
stem from the fact that any job involves two dimensions: the worker and the firm. The two dimensions complement each other and can serve as a basis to define and identify green jobs. At the worker-level, the task-based approach focuses on whether tasks performed by workers produce green outputs or have the goal of reducing a firm’s environmental footprint. At the firm level, the output-based approach focuses
on the final products and services and whether they contribute to lessening the adverse environmental impacts and/or conserving the environment, e.g. solar panels
A Case Study of Ethiopia
No full textForeign direct investment has the potential to introduce much-needed capital and expertise in emerging and developing economies. To attract foreign direct investment, many countries have eased restrictions on foreign ownership in various sectors, reformed their institutions, and set up investment promotion agencies. Until the mid-2010s, Ethiopia remained one of the few countries that resisted this trend, with several stringent restrictions in place on foreign direct investment entry and operations in the country. This study employs a synthetic control method to examine patterns in foreign capital inflows following a series of investment policy reforms that were substantively introduced in the mid-2010s (circa 2015). The study offers evidence that investment policy reforms contributed to a significant foreign direct investment inflow in Ethiopia, compared to what would have occurred in the absence of these policies. An alternative strategy that conservatively specifies the donor country pool using an AI-assisted deep search technique changes the donor pool weighting matrix of the synthetic control method, but the estimated policy effects largely remain robust to this specification. The findings highlight the importance of targeted reforms in promoting foreign direct investment inflow in developing countries
The Case of Selected East Asian and East African Economies
No full textFollowing the gains from variety
literature, this paper estimates the welfare impact of
growth of the variety of imported goods in 28 countries in
East Africa and East Asia and compares the results. While
estimating the gains from variety, the elasticities of
substitution are estimated for each country at the
Harmonized System six-digit level of disaggregation. More
than 100,000 elasticities are estimated, and the paper
constructs an exact price index to measure the welfare gains
from variety growth. The findings show that from 1995 to
2021, African countries gained on average 5.47 percent of
their gross domestic product (0.20 percent annually), and
Asian countries excluding Bhutan gained 3.46 percent (0.13
percent annually). Bhutan, Mongolia, Rwanda, and Mozambique
are among the countries with the highest gains over the
sample period. The evidence indicates that the creation and
extension of trade linkages can be a source of welfare,
particularly for small and transitioning economies, a point
that is occasionally overlooked in discussions about the
positive effects of globalization and economic integration.
The estimated elasticities may also be useful for other studies