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Przemiany umieralności w Polsce w latach 1988–2004 na tle przejścia epidemiologicznego
Full text linkChanges in mortality, observed in Poland in the years 1988-2004, are analysed in the light of the epidemiological transition i.e. the study focuses on symptoms, characteristic for the fourth phase, and concentrates on mortality patterns by age, sex and selected causes of death (cardiovascular diseases, malignant neoplasms, external causes of death, respiratory diseases, digestive diseases and infections and parasitic diseases). The data comes from the current mortality statistics and life tables, both prepared by the Central Statistical Office. In 1988-1991 disadvantageous trends in mortality carried on, i.e. the health crisis in Poland still persisted. Improvements in mortality, observed since 1992, confirm the hypothesis that in the years 1992-2004 the third phase of the epidemiological transition in Poland came to an end and the age of delayed degenerative diseases started. Mortality changes characteristic for the forth phase of the epidemiological transition in Poland were as follows: decreases in overall mortality, which resulted in the systematically increasing life expectancy at birth; declining mortality rates almost at all ages, especially at working-age, a remarkable decrease of infant mortality, a still persisting gender gap in mortality and an increasing excess in male mortality at age 20-39; remarkable decreases in mortality from cardiovascular diseases combined with a differentiation of death rates by selected malignant neoplasms, decreasing male mortality from external causes, and increasing female mortality from respiratory diseases. Besides a detailed description of changes in mortality, in the light of the epidemiological transition, the article also presents an attempt to identify their determinants. The approach applied, is based on a conceptual framework of health domains. To explain decreases in mortality, factors related to individual behaviour, environment and health care are discussed. Undoubtedly, crucial determinants of mortality improvements in Poland are, on one hand, a strong promotion of a healthy life style and increasing knowledge of health risks, remarkable diet changes, curbed smoking, and appreciation of the role of physical activity, and on the other hand improvements in medical treatment in terms of technologies, the availability of medicines and their quality. Especially, the progress in cardiology and cardio-surgery along with changes in life styles, contributed to the mortality declines due to circulatory diseases. Also, during the period of transformation, Poland experienced positive changes, in the broadly defined environment - a remarkable reduction of environment pollution might be attributed to changes in economy (collapse of heavy industry and declines in the traditional branches of industry, the shift to modern technologies in manufacturing, development of services), and to the implementation of regulations and procedures in the area of environmental protection, accompanied by promotion of environment friendly behaviour
Osoby niepolskiej narodowości i języka w Polsce w świetle NSP 2002
Full text linkThe base for the analysis of population structure by nationality (by declaration) and language used at home, is the data from the National Population Census 2002. The author also refers to other scientists' study results, to justify assumptions used while disaggregating almost 775 thousand people (2% of total population) with unknown nationality or language used at home. The estimates and analysis results are widely compared with results of other studies, based also on special research. The results of the study show, that Poland, at the beginning of the XXI century, had a homogeneous population in respect of nationality and language used at home. Small national and language minorities (about 471 thousand persons, i.e. 1.2% of the total population, and 481 thousand i.e. 1.3%, after adjustments based on disaggregation of unknown nationality or language), exist mainly in the Opolskie and Slaskie voivodeships (Germans and Silesians) and in Podlaskie voivodeship (Byelorussians). Unique use of the Polish language at home was declared by about 97-98% of population, Polish together with a second language was used at home by 1,3% of population, and exclusively foreign languages - by only 0,14%. Among the foreign languages used at home, German and English were most frequently declared. Also, relatively frequently the Silesian and Kashubian dialects were used at home
Analiza umieralności w Polsce w latach 1970–2003. Dekompozycja zmian w oczekiwanym trwaniu życia noworodka
Full text linkAdvantageous changes in male and female mortality taken place in Poland since the early 1990s placed the life expectancy of Poles among the highest in the Central and Eastern Europe. However, that indicator is still far behind the European countries which benefit from the highest life expectancies. The life expectancy values in Poland are currently at levels observed in these countries 30 years ago for males and 20 years ago for females. A gender gap in the life expectancy also remains high, especially in the middle-aged population. The method proposed by E.Arriaga (1984) was used to decompose changes in the life expectancy by age in Poland over the subsequent decades from 1970/1971 to 2003. The period before 1989 was used to show differences in mortality changes between these two time intervals. Disadvantageous trends in mortality among middle-aged men had been observed in Poland as early as the mid 1970s. In the recent years (1991-2003), beneficial shifts in mortality were observed in all age groups, resulting in the increase in the life expectancy at birth. Results of the analysis of differences in life expectancies by gender confirmed a significant contribution of the middle-aged groups to the gender gap. Shifts in mortality are more advantageous for women in the older age groups, which may stimulate a further growth in the number of single old women in Poland
Ocena prognozy ludności GUS 2003 z perspektywy aglomeracji warszawskiej
Full text linkDemographic forecasts constitute an important information input for economic and social policies, as well as for a spatial organisation, which areas are crucial from the point of view of the Warsaw agglomeration. The paper aims at evaluating the recent population forecast of the Central Statistical Office for the period 2003-2030 in the context of the expected population changes of the capital city. The analysis concentrates on three elements of a forecast: the demographic data, the model of population dynamics, and assumptions on particular components of population change. Regarding data, it is argued that the current system of population statistics in Poland does not provide credible information on population stocks and structures, which causes a bias in the estimation of intensity of demographic events. As the main problem comes from the incompatibility of definitions, appropriate changes in legislation seem to be necessary. With respect to the model, the forecast should be prepared using a multi-regional model rather than the cohort-component method. The assumptions underestimate the role of migration (especially internal immigration to and international emigration from Warsaw) in the demographic development of the city. Hence, authors are of the opinion that the forecasted decline of the Warsaw population from the (underestimated) 1,688 thousand in 2002 to 1,532 thousand in 2030 is not realistic. It is argued that a population forecast for Warsaw should consider the specificity of the capital city and the whole agglomeration, which is an important migration destination for labour force from other regions of Poland. According to international standards, such a forecast should be made for the resident population. The 2003-based population forecast of the Central Statistical Office does not meet these criteria and thus can be hardly used for socio-economic policy purposes, spatial organisation, and development plans for the city and the Warsaw agglomeration
Horiuchi Sh., Robine J.-M. (eds.), Increasing longevity: causes, trends and prospects, “Genus”, special issue, Vol. LXI, nr 1, January-March 2005
Full text linkPrzestrzenny wzorzec osiedlania się cudzoziemców w Polsce
Full text linkThe article presents the spatial distribution of foreigners living in Poland. The data used come from the Office for Repatriations and Aliens and refer to all foreigners who were legally residing in Poland as on 1th September 2004 (84,7 thousand persons). The main countries of origin of immigrants are states of the former Soviet Union (mostly Ukraine, Russia and Belarus), next countries of the Western Europe (Germany, France, the United Kingdom) and finally countries of the East-Central Europe (Bulgaria, Serbia and Montenegro). Depending on a region of origin, foreigners form different spatial patterns of settlement and show different levels of concentration, evaluated by use of the Gini index and the Lorenz curve. Foreigners coming from the countries of the former Soviet Union settled in all regions of Poland and did not form spatial clusters. The degree of the spatial concentration is moderate for the citizens of East-European states and profoundly high for the immigrants from Far East states (above all the Vietnamese). The latter constitute ethnic enclaves in the biggest Polish cities