1741 research outputs found

    Incorporating ecosystem component interactions and indirect effects in cumulative impact assessment models

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    The cumulative impact of anthropogenic pressures on coastal seas is important to consider for a strategic and sustainable management of marine ecosystems. We aim to demonstrate how, and to what extent, incorporating interactions among ecosystem components (species and habitats) and indirect effects of pressures through other ecosystem components can develop existing cumulative impact assessment (CIA) models. A Swedish case study area was selected to test a simplified version of the extended regional Symphony CIA model. Five pollution- and climate-driven pressures acting on three trophically connected ecosystem components, i.e. cod, herring and plankton species/organism groups, were used. In addition, we conducted a systematic review of the scientific literature to determine the impact weight scores for an advancement of the method. The results from the development of CIA models clearly indicate the importance of introducing ecosystem component interactions and indirect effects into CIA models. The total cumulative impact increased by 117 % in the test area, but even more importantly, the development of the model resulted in a spatially more detailed outcome with a greater spatial variability in the magnitude of the total cumulative impact. New areas were highlighted that are under pressure compared to the original model. Thus, the development of the model captures cumulative impacts that would otherwise be overlooked if ecosystem component interactions and indirect effects were ignored. These types of changes to CIA models are required to increase the predictive power and ecological relevance to accommodate solid holistic and ecosystem-based marine management

    Ocean Meridional Overturning Circulation During the Early and Middle Miocene

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    The Miocene (similar to 23-5 Ma) is a past warm epoch when global surface temperatures varied between similar to 5 and 8 degrees C warmer than today, and CO2 concentration was similar to 400-800 ppm. The narrowing/closing of the tropical ocean gateways and widening of high-latitude gateways throughout the Miocene is likely responsible for the evolution of the ocean's overturning circulation to its modern structure, though the mechanisms remain unclear. Here, we investigate early and middle Miocene ocean circulation in an opportunistic climate model intercomparison (MioMIP1), using 14 simulations with different paleogeography, CO2, and vegetation. The strength of the Southern Ocean-driven Meridional Overturning Circulation (SOMOC) bottom cell is similar in the Miocene and Pre-Industrial (PI) but dominates the Miocene global MOC due to weaker Northern Hemisphere overturning. The Miocene Atlantic MOC (AMOC) is weaker than PI in all the simulations (by 2-21 Sv), possibly due to its connection with an Arctic that is considerably fresher than today. Deep overturning in the North Pacific (PMOC) is present in three simulations (similar to 5-10 Sv), of which two have a weaker AMOC, and one has a stronger AMOC (compared to its PMOC). Surface freshwater fluxes control northern overturning such that the basin with the least freshwater gain has stronger overturning. While the orography, which impacts runoff direction (Pacific vs. Atlantic), has an inconsistent impact on northern overturning across simulations, overall, features associated with the early Miocene-such as a lower Tibetan Plateau, the Rocky Mountains, and a deeper Panama Seaway-seem to favor PMOC over AMOC

    Cyanobakterier i Östersjön sommaren 2023

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    Under sommaren 2023 förekom cyanobakterieblomning i hela Egentliga Östersjön, Finska viken samt sydöstra delen av Bottenhavet. De största sammanhängande förekomsterna sträckte sig från södra Östersjön till Finska viken under sista veckan i juni. Flest dagar med förekomst av cyanobakterier, runt 25 dagar, sågs i Norra Östersjön, centrala delen av Finska viken, samt de norra områdena av Mellersta Östersjön. I Bottenhavet var förekomsten som störst under andra halvan av juli. I mitten av september startade blomningen på nytt i Södra Östersjön efter att ovädret Hans hade blandat om havet och återfört näring till ytvattnet

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