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Multistate analysis of multitype recurrent event and failure time data with event feedbacks in biomarkers
Get PDFFrom Wiley via Jisc Publications RouterHistory: received 2020-04-07, rev-recd 2021-04-19, accepted 2021-06-05, pub-electronic 2021-07-13Article version: VoRPublication status: PublishedAbstract: In this paper we propose a class of multistate models for the analysis of multitype recurrent event and failure time data when there are past event feedbacks in longitudinal biomarkers. It can well incorporate various effects, including time‐dependent and time‐independent effects, of different event paths or the number of occurrences of events of different types. Asymptotic unbiased estimating equations based on polynomial splines approximation are developed. The consistency and asymptotic normality of the proposed estimators are provided. Simulation studies show that the naive estimators which either ignore the past event feedback or the measurement errors are biased. Our method has a better coverage probability of the time‐varying/constant coefficients, compared to the naive methods. An application to the dataset from the Atherosclerosis Risk in Communities Study, which is also the motivating example to develop the method, is presented
Africanfuturist Socio‐Climatic Imaginaries and Nnedi Okorafor’s Wild Necropolitics
Get PDFFrom Wiley via Jisc Publications RouterHistory: received 2020-12-15, rev-recd 2021-06-22, accepted 2021-06-24, pub-electronic 2021-07-21Article version: VoRPublication status: PublishedAbstract: Dominant and insurgent socio‐climatic imaginaries struggle for influence over how the future is envisioned. Africanfuturist imaginaries have huge potential to unsettle racialised and gendered climate narratives. In this article I use Nnedi Okorafor’s novel Who Fears Death in order to challenge mainstream climate imaginaries and to imagine new forms of being and becoming in the context of climate change. Drawing on Achille Mbembe’s concepts of biopolitics and necropolitics, as well as black feminist traditions of imagining new genres of the human, I argue that Okorafor’s “wild necropolitics” illuminates how the forces of “wild nature” have become central features of the deployment of the means of destroying life, especially in the context of climate change. By examining the motifs of change, violence, wilderness and narration, I argue that reading and writing different stories about alternative climate futures is essential to the process of finding new ways of being and becoming human
An Ecosystem View of Peer-to-Peer Electricity Trading: Scenario Building by Business Model Matrix to Identify New Roles
Get PDFFrom MDPI via Jisc Publications RouterHistory: accepted 2021-07-15, pub-electronic 2021-07-22Publication status: PublishedFunder: Flemish Government; Grant(s): FWO SBO project SNIPPET S007619This article introduces new roles in future peer-to-peer electricity trading markets. Following a qualitative approach, firstly, the value network of the current electricity market is presented. To do so, service streams, critical roles, activities, and their setting in the electricity market are identified. Secondly, in order to identify the main sources of uncertainty, the business model matrix framework is utilized to analyze peer-to-peer electricity trading. Thirdly, four future scenarios are built based on user involvement and customer ownership. The outcome of the scenario building is the emergence of new roles, brokers, and representatives in the future peer-to-peer electricity markets. Fourth, based on the four future scenarios, changes in the value network, new roles, and emerging/evolving activities are identified. Finally, the two new roles are discussed from grid structure, security and privacy, legal, and data protection perspectives. The data is gathered by conducting semi-structured interviews with stakeholders in the current electricity market as well as potential disruptors. This article elaborates on the configuration of the value network in the electricity market and highlights the changes that peer-to-peer trading imposes to the status quo. Through the outcomes of the value network analysis, it assists policy makers to consider the requirements and current market players to reconsider their business models
The promise and challenges of cell therapy for psoriasis
Get PDFFrom Wiley via Jisc Publications RouterHistory: accepted 2021-05-18, pub-electronic 2021-07-27Article version: VoRPublication status: PublishedFunder: NIHR Manchester Biomedical Research Centre; Id: http://dx.doi.org/10.13039/100014653Summary: The management of moderate‐to‐severe psoriasis has been transformed by the introduction of biological therapies. These medicines, particularly those targeting interleukin (IL)‐17 and IL‐23p19, can offer clear or nearly clear skin for the majority of patients with psoriasis, with good long‐term drug survival. However, as currently used, none of these therapies is curative and disconcertingly there is a small but increasing number of patients with severe psoriasis who have failed all currently available therapeutic modalities. A similar scenario has occurred in other immune‐mediated inflammatory diseases (IMIDs) where treatment options are limited in severely affected patients. In these cases, cell therapy, including haematopoietic stem cell transplantation (HSCT) and mesenchymal stromal cells (MSC), has been utilized. This review discusses the various forms of cell therapy currently available, their utility in the management of IMIDs and emerging evidence for efficacy in severe psoriasis that is unresponsive to biological therapy. Balancing the risks and benefits of treatment vs. the underlying disease is key; cell therapy carries significant risks, costs, regulation and other complexities, which must be justified by outcomes. Although HSCT has anecdotally been reported to benefit severe psoriasis, sometimes with apparent cure, this has mainly been in the setting of other coincidental ‘routine’ indications. In psoriasis, cell therapies, such as MSC and regulatory T cells, with a lower risk of complications are likely to be more appropriate. Well‐designed controlled trials coupled with mechanistic studies are warranted if advanced cell therapies are to be developed and delivered as a realistic option for severe psoriasis
Assessing the relation between alcohol consumption and risk of disease and mortality.
Get PDFFrom Europe PMC via Jisc Publications RouterHistory: ppub 2021-06-01, epub 2021-06-28Publication status: Publishe
Towards the Determination of Safe Operating Envelopes for Autonomous UAS in Offshore Inspection Missions
Get PDFFrom MDPI via Jisc Publications RouterHistory: accepted 2021-07-21, pub-electronic 2021-07-28Publication status: PublishedFunder: Engineering and Physical Sciences Research Council; Grant(s): EP/R026173/1A drive to reduce costs, carbon emissions, and the number of required personnel in the offshore energy industry has led to proposals for the increased use of autonomous/robotic systems for many maintenance tasks. There are questions over how such missions can be shown to be safe. A corollary exists in the manned aviation world for helicopter–ship operations where a test pilot attempts to operate from a ship under a range of wind conditions and provides subjective feedback on the level of difficulty encountered. This defines the ship–helicopter operating limit envelope (SHOL). Due to the cost of creating a SHOL there has been considerable research activity to demonstrate that much of this process can be performed virtually. Unmanned vehicles, however, have no test pilot to provide feedback. This paper therefore explores the possibility of adapting manned simulation techniques to the unmanned world to demonstrate that a mission is safe. Through flight modelling and simulation techniques it is shown that operating envelopes can be created for an oil rig inspection task and that, by using variable performance specifications, these can be tailored to suit the level of acceptable risk. The operating envelopes produced provide condensed and intelligible information regarding the environmental conditions under which the UAS can perform the task
Where is toxicity located? Side glances through fieldwork in a toxic place
Get PDFFrom Wiley via Jisc Publications RouterHistory: pub-print 2021-08, pub-electronic 2021-08-01Article version: VoRPublication status: PublishedDespite the notorious invisibility of toxicity, an aesthetic narrative has developed around the threat of e‐waste. In reports about toxicity in New Delhi, India, the dirt, grime and discarded remnants of electronics are presented in a particular visual manner to instil horror among readers and viewers. Such a representation has far‐reaching influences on policy. The seven pictures and the accompanying text in this article seek to challenge such a linear narrative of e‐waste's toxicity and offer fragments of other untold stories that challenge the established narrative and evoke the rich social life entwined with e‐waste
Sleep disruption and depression, stress and anxiety levels in women with polycystic ovary syndrome (PCOS) during the lockdown measures for COVID-19 in the UK
Get PDFBackground: Lockdown measures have been enforced globally in response to the COVID-19 pandemic. Given the comorbidity burden in women with polycystic ovary syndrome (PCOS), these lockdown measures may have a particularly negative impact on sleep health, quality of life (QoL), and depression/stress levels in this population. The aim of this study was to explore whether such potential problems were present in women with PCOS during the COVID-19 lockdown in the UK.
Methods: UK women with PCOS were recruited through social media into a cross-sectional study during the COVID-19 lockdown. The study survey was delivered online, and included demographic and COVID-19 relevant questions, as well as validated
questionnaires/scales, namely the Insomnia Severity Index (ISI), Depression Anxiety and Stress Scale (DASS-21), and PCOSQOL questionnaire.
Results: Three hundred and thirty-three women with PCOS [median age: 30.0 (9.0) years] were recruited. Participants were dichotomized based on responses regarding the impact of COVID-19 restrictions on their sleep [negative (N = 242) vs. no/positive
(N = 91) impact]. No differences were noted between groups regarding age, time since PCOS diagnosis, body mass index, or number of comorbidities. Based on the ISI, 44.2% of participants reporting a negative impact on sleep exhibited at least moderately severe clinical insomnia. Compared to those who reported no/positive effect on sleep, the participants reporting a negative impact on sleep also reported poorer QoL, based on the total PCOSQOL score, with a greater impact of PCOS and poorer mood in the corresponding PCOSQOL domains. Based on the DASS-21, the latter also had statistically higher depression and stress levels compared to the former. Finally, for this cohort significant inverse correlations were noted between the ISI and PCOSQOL scores (total and domain scores), whilst the DASS-21 and ISI scores were positively correlated (all p-values <0.001).
Conclusion: The majority of recruited UK women with PCOS reported that the COVID-19 lockdown had a negative impact on their sleep, which was also associated with impaired QoL and higher depression/stress levels. Whilst further research is required,
women with PCOS should be considered a vulnerable population that may experience an adverse impact on sleep, QoL and mental health well-being due to lockdown measures during the COVID-19 pandemic
The taking place of older age
Get PDFFrom SAGE Publishing via Jisc Publications RouterHistory: epub 2021-06-02Publication status: PublishedRepresentations of older age are often reductive in western societies, portrayed as a distinct period of life characterised by social disengagement and physiological decline. Through rich ethnographic accounts developed with older people from Greater Manchester UK, this paper is concerned with how the category of older age is made through representations, and the different ways people encounter and relate to it. In doing so, it disrupts reductive representations by considering how older age is lived. I respond to calls for the incorporation of more-than-representational and affective approaches into the geographic study of older age to advance research on ageing and highlight affect as a useful concept for thinking through difference. The paper is concerned with how older people are represented, with how representations differentially affect and are affected by older individuals, and with how representations of older age are performed and folded into lived accounts. More-than-representational theories offer an understanding of older age that is not pre-given or free-standing, but as something which can emerge, gather and disperse in relation with materialities as well as diffuse atmospheres, affects and emotional resonances
Recognition of Design Fixation via Body Language Using Computer Vision
Get PDFFrom Hindawi via Jisc Publications RouterHistory: received 2020-12-21, publication-year 2021, rev-recd 2021-06-19, accepted 2021-08-12, archival-date 2021-08-27, pub-print 2021-08-27Publication status: PublishedFunder: National Natural Science Foundation of China; doi: http://dx.doi.org/10.13039/501100001809; Grant(s): 51905175Funder: Shanghai Pujiang Talent Program; Grant(s): 2019PJC021Funder: Ministry of Education of the People's Republic of China; doi: http://dx.doi.org/10.13039/501100002338; Grant(s): 202002SZ05Funder: Shanghai Soft Science Key Project; Grant(s): 21692196800The main objective of this study is to recognize design fixation accurately and effectively. First, we conducted an experiment to record the videos of design process and design sketches from 12 designers for 15 minutes. Then, we executed a video analysis of body language in designers, correlating body language to the presence of design fixation, as judged by a panel of six experts. We found that three body language types were significantly correlated to fixation. A two-step hybrid recognition model of design fixation based on body language was proposed. The first-step recognition model of body language using transfer learning based on a pretrained VGG-16 convolutional neural network was constructed. The average recognition rate achieved by the VGG-16 model was 92.03%. Then, the frames of recognized body language were used as input vectors to the second-step fixation classification model based on support vector machine (SVM). The average recognition rate for the fixation state achieved by the SVM model was 79.11%. The impact of the work could be that the fixation can be detected not only by the sketch outcomes but also by monitoring the movements, expressions, and gestures of designers, as it is happening by monitoring the movements, expressions, and gestures of designers
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