921 research outputs found
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Restructuring of households in rural South Africa: Reflections on average household size in the Agincourt sub-district 1992-2003
No full textSouth Africa has seen a dramatic decrease in household size over the last decade. In Table 1 we show that over the eight-and-a-half years from October 1995 to March 2004 the average household size has decreased by 20% or 0.74 persons (see also Pirouz 2004). Consequently for a fixed population size there would have been 20% more households in March 2004 than in October 1995. Such a rapid rate of household formation is interesting in and of itself. From the perspective of a policy maker it is particularly vital to understand this process. The new democratic government has committed itself to extending infrastructure and social services to households in deprived communities and now finds that it is trying to catch a moving target. The backlogs are increasing as the services are being rolled out. We will suggest below that there might be a connection between these two processes
Sequential regression multiple imputation for incomplete multivariate data using Markov Chain Monte Carlo
No full textThis paper discusses the theoretical background to handling missing data in a multivariate context. Earlier methods for dealing with item non-response are reviewed, followed by an examination of some of the more modern methods and, in particular, multiple imputation. One such technique, known as sequential regression multivariate imputation, which employs a Markov chain Monte Carlo algorithm is described and implemented. It is demonstrated that distributional convergence is rapid and only a few imputations are necessary in order to produce accurate point estimates and preserve multivariate relationships, whilst adequately accounting for the uncertainty introduced by the imputation procedure. It is further shown that lower fractions of missing data and the inclusion of relevant covariates in the imputation model are desirable in terms of bias reduction
Poverty and Migration: Evidence from the Khayelitsha/Mitchell"s Plain Area
No full textThe consequences of misguided economic and social policies in the previous dispensation remain evident in the structure of poverty in South Africa. Enforced migration control, job reservation for whites and inadequate education and public services have all left their mark on the social and economic structure of the population. Migration and the pattern thereof play a significant role in explaining poverty in South Africa. This paper asks who the poor are, but with a focus that enables us both to utilise a new dataset (the Khayelitsha-Mitchells Plain survey) and to investigate the migration process which links the socio-economic situation of Khayelitsha (the destination of many migrants) to the source area, the Eastern Cape. A poverty profile is constructed of South Africa and also of the Eastern and Western Cape. Further analysis of household data for the Khayelitsha/Mitchells Plain area allows us to further explain the impact of migration on the structure of poverty. Within this context we investigate persistent biases in patterns of poverty and differences in the socio-economic characteristics (such as race, location, employment status and access to services) of three poverty categories, the ultra-poor, moderately poor and non-poor
Schooling as a lottery: Racial differences in school advancement in urban South Africa
No full textThis paper develops a stochastic model of grade repetition to analyze the large racial differences in progress through secondary school in South Africa. The model predicts that a larger stochastic component in the link between learning and measured performance will generate higher enrollment, higher failure rates, and a weaker link between ability and grade progression. Using recently collected longitudinal data we find that progress through secondary school is strongly associated with scores on a baseline literacy and numeracy test. In grades 8-11 the effect of these scores on grade progression is much stronger for white and coloured students than for African students, while there is no racial difference in the impact of the scores on passing the nationally standardized grade 12 matriculation exam. The results provide strong support for our model, suggesting that grade progression in African schools is poorly linked to actual ability and learning. The results point to the importance of considering the stochastic component of grade repetition in analyzing school systems with high failure rates
Gender Equity in Mathematics Achievement in East African Primary Schools: Context Counts
No full textAlthough primary school enrollment is gradually on the increase in the developing world, differences in mathematics achievement between girls and boys persist. A complex combination of factors that is related to issues of the home environment, the school context, and national policy influences the performance of female students when compared to their male peers. We focus on three countries in East Africa with a female disadvantage in mathematics achievement and use data from 8,795 primary school students in 529 schools. We explore the influence of contextual factors and organizational processes that are associated with better overall performance and with the improved gender distribution of achievement
Shocks, Assets and Credit
No full textWell functioning credit and insurance markets, in many respects, obviates the need for public policy that is oriented at providing support to households when they face economic hardship. But when the market for cheap informal credit is altogether absent, risk-averse (poorer) households will generally respond to such risks by adopting strategies that have long term consequences for their well being
The Impact of Unconditional Cash Transfers on Nutrition: The South African Child Support Grant
No full textCash transfer programs are used as new policies to increase nutrition and human capital of children from poor families. We evaluate South Africa's unconditional Child Support Grant (CSG) in which cash grants are made to families with no strings attached. However, in contrast to the market-generated income increases that identified low nutritional elasticities in earlier studies, the income increases generated by the South African cash transfers are almost exclusively assigned to women. Taking advantage of a slow program roll-out that created exogenous variation in the extent of CSGtreatment received by beneficiaries, we utilizes recent methods on continuous treatment to estimate the impact of these transfers on child nutrition. Large dosages of CSG treatment early in life are shown to significantly boost child's nutrition. Additionally, our calculations suggest that discounted rate of return on CSG payments is between a 160% and 230%.DFiD and USAI
The Free Rider Problem in Community-Based Rural Water Supply: A Game Theoretic Analysis
No full textCommunity-based water supply projects in rural South Africa have frequently proved unsustainable, with many communities unable to raise sufficient funds to meet operation and maintenance costs. A key obstacle to cost recovery (and the focus of this paper) is the free rider problem. As rural water services are frequently supplied as a public good, the link between paying for water and receiving it is not as straightforward as it is for private goods, and beneficiaries may have a material incentive to ‘free ride’ on the good’s production. Using a simple game-theoretic model, we identify and discuss the value of social sanctioning in deterring free riding. We conclude that social norms that generate costly punishment, such as norms of fairness may be necessary (but not sufficient) to deter free riding. We emphasise the importance of community mobilisation, social intermediation and institution building in overcoming the free rider problem
Social Networks, Employment and Worker Discouragement: Evidence from South Africa
No full textSocial networks are increasingly being recognised as having an important influence on labour market outcomes, since they facilitate the exchange of job related information. Access to information about job opportunities as well as perceptions about the buoyancy of the labour market depend critically on the social structures and the social networks to which labour market participants belong. In this paper, we examine the impact of information externalities generated through network membership on labour market status. Using Census data from South Africa, a country characterised by high levels of unemployment and worker discouragement, we adopt an econometric approach that aims to minimise the problems of omitted variable bias that have plagued many previous studies of the impact of social networks. Our results suggest that social networks may enhance employment probabilities by an additional 3 to 9%, and that failure to adequately control for omitted variables would lead to substantial over-estimates of the network co-efficient. Social networks affect both employment probabilities and worker discouragement, and are particularly important for individuals residing in rural areas, those with disabilities, and those who are black or female
