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Patterns of persistence: Intergenerational mobility and education in South Africa
No full textHow should the correlation between the earnings of parents and children in South Africa be
calculated in the presence of high unemployment, and what is the role of education in determining
this relationship? We use the first four waves of the National Income Dynamics Study (NIDS) for
2008 to 2014/15, and the 1993 Project for Statistics on Living Standards and Development (PSLSD) to investigate the shape of the association between parental and child earnings across the earnings
distribution, and find that the correlation is strongest at the ends of the distribution. We correct for
possible biases that arise from co‐resident parent‐child pairs, and from selection into labour market
participation in South Africa’s high‐unemployment society. We find that correcting for selection into
employment increases the intergenerational elasticity of earnings by approximately 10 per cent. We
unpack the role of education in determining the association of intergenerational earnings and find
that the impact is strongest at the bottom of the earnings distribution, and that education accounts
for approximately 40 per cent of the total intergenerational earnings elasticity.Arden Finn: [email protected], Doctoral student and researcher at the Southern Africa Labour and Development Research Unit, University of Cape Town.
Murray Leibbrandt: [email protected], Professor of economics and director of SALDRU at the University of Cape Town.
Vimal Ranchhod: [email protected], Associate professor in SALDRU at the University of Cape Town.
Acknowledgements:
Funding for this research from the Department of Planning, Monitoring and Evaluation is gratefully
acknowledged. Arden Finn acknowledges the National Research Foundation for financial support for his doctoral work through the Chair in Poverty and Inequality Research. Murray Leibbrandt acknowledges the Research Chairs Initiative of the Department of Science and Technology and National Research Foundation for funding his work as the Chair in Poverty and Inequality Research. Vimal Ranchhod acknowledges support from the Research Chairs Initiative of the Department of Science and Technology and the National Research Foundation
Sexual Behaviour of Men and Women within Age-Disparate Partnerships in South Africa: Implications for Young Women's HIV Risk
No full textBackground
Age-disparate partnerships are hypothesized to increase HIV-risk for young women. However, the evidence base remains mixed. Most studies have focused only on unprotected sex among women in the partnership. Consequently, little is known about other risky behaviours, such as transactional sex, alcohol use, and concurrency, as well as the behaviours of the men who partner with young women. We therefore examined differences in various sexual behaviours of both young women and their male partners by partnership age difference.
Methods
We used nationally representative data from South Africa (2012) on partnerships reported by 16–24 year old black African women (n = 818) and by black African men in partnerships with 16–24 year old women (n = 985). We compared sexual behaviours in age-disparate partnerships and age-similar partnerships, using multiple logistic regression to control for potential confounders and to assess rural/urban differences.
Results
Young women in age-disparate partnerships were more likely to report unprotected sex than young women in similar-aged partnerships (aOR:1.51; p = 0.014; 95%CI:1.09–2.11). Men in partnerships with young women were more likely to report unprotected sex (aOR:1.92; p<0.01; 95%CI:1.31–2.81), transactional sex (aOR:2.73; p<0.01; 95%CI:1.64–4.56), drinking alcohol before sex (aOR:1.60; p = 0.062; 95%CI:0.98–2.61), and concurrency (aOR:1.39; p = 0.097; 95%CI:0.94–2.07) when their partners were five or more years younger. The association between age-disparate partnerships and transactional sex (aOR:4.14; p<0.01; 95%CI: 2.03–8.46) and alcohol use (aOR:2.24; p<0.013; 95%CI:1.20–4.19) was only found in urban areas.
Conclusions
Results provide evidence that young women’s age-disparate partnerships involve greater sexual risk, particularly through the risky behaviours of their male partners, with the risk amplified for young women in urban areas
Eliminating Extreme Poverty in Africa: Trends, Policies and the Role of International Organizations
No full textEradicating extreme poverty for all people everywhere by 2030 is the first goal among the UN Sustainable Development Goals that guide the current development agenda. This paper examines its feasibility for Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA), the world’s poorest but growing region. It finds that under plausible assumptions extreme poverty will not be eradicated in SSA by 2030, but it can be reduced to low levels. National and regional policies that focus on accelerating growth, while making it more inclusive would accelerate poverty reduction. International organizations, including informal ones such as the G20, can play a key role in this endeavor by encouraging policy coordination and coherence.An earlier version of this paper was issued as Bicaba, Zorobabel; Brixiová, Zuzana and Ncube, Mthuli (2015), Eliminating Extreme Poverty in Africa: Trends, Policies and the Role of International Organizations, Working Paper Series No 223, African Development Bank, Abidjan, Côte d’Ivoire. The authors thank Mohamed S. Ben Aissa, John Anyanwu, Michael Crosswell, Douglas Gollin, Jacob Grover, Basil Jones, Beejay Kokil, Kevin Lumbila, Alice Nabalamba, and Don Sillers for comments and discussions. An earlier version was presented at the 1st Annual World Bank Conference on Africa and at a seminar at the USAID. The views expressed are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect those of the African Development Bank. Corresponding e-mail address: [email protected]
Multidimensional Youth Poverty: Estimating the Youth MPI in South Africa at ward level
No full textThe purpose of this report is to provide a profile of multidimensional youth poverty in South Africa and to map its distribution at ward level, using data collected by Statistics South Africa through the 100% 2011 Census sample. As such, the report makes use of the recently developed Youth Multidimensional Poverty Index (Youth MPI) , which is based on the Alkire Foster method (Alkire & Foster, 2011). The first section of the report describes how the Youth MPI was constructed and outlines some of its limitations. The second section presents the results for South Africa as a whole and then for each province and metropolitan municipality separately.
The strength of the Youth MPI based on the 100% 2011 Census sample is that it allows for fine-grained analysis of multidimensional youth poverty at low levels of disaggregation. By mapping the distribution of youth poverty estimates at ward level, this report offers a resource for identifying the areas of greatest need and for targeting youth-related policies and allocating resources more effectively.This report is a joint publication of the University of Cape Town’s Poverty and Inequality Initiative (PII), Southern Africa Labour and Development Research Unit (SALDRU), and Statistics South Africa. It has been prepared by Emily Frame, Ariane de Lannoy, Patricia Koka and Murray Leibbrandt.
The authors are grateful to Bahle Sitaba from the Geography Division at Statistics South Africa for her assistance in producing the maps in this report
Determinants of remittances in South Africa
No full textThis paper analyses household‐level determinants of the probability and level of domestic remittances
in South Africa over the period 2008 to 2014‐2015. We exploit all four waves of the National Income
Dynamics Survey (NIDS) data to analyse the determinants of remittances in a panel setting using
random‐effects Tobit, Heckman selection, and two‐part model approaches. The panel nature of
this data allows us to incorporate individuals’ unobserved time‐constant characteristics (or
unobserved heterogeneity) in the models, a step that enriches the analysis and yields more accurate
results than if we were to use only cross‐sectional analysis. It also allows us to incorporate information about the dynamics of remittance behaviour for the same households. However, data availability restricts the analysis to determinants associated with the recipient households. We find the
determinants of the probability of remitting to be non‐identical to the determinants of the level of
remittances. Determinants of both include the age, race, education level, and employment status of
the household head, and the income and the type of area of the household. The gender of the
household head and the size of the household are also important determinants, but appear to have a
positive effect on the probability of remitting, yet a negative effect on the amount remitted. These
results shed light on the factors that affect whether or not families receive remittances and, if they
do, how much.Mduduzi Biyase: Corresponding Author. Lecturer, Department of Economics and Econometrics, University of Johannesburg
Fiona Tregenna: South African Research Chair in Industrial Development, and Professor, Department of Economics and Econometrics, University of Johannesburg
Acknowledgements:
Funding for this research from the Department of Planning, Monitoring and Evaluation is gratefully
acknowledged
Cross-Sectional Features of Wealth Inequality in South Africa: Evidence from the National Income Dynamics Study
No full textIn this paper, we examine the cross‐sectional distribution of wealth in South Africa by using survey data from the National Income Dynamics Study (NIDS) for 2010‐2011 (wave 2) and 2014‐2015 (wave
4). Our results show that wealth inequality is very high, with the bottom half of the population owning very little and the top decile holding about 85% of total wealth in 2010‐2011 and 2014‐2015. While the results also show that wealth inequality within‐Race and between‐Race are high, we find that wealth inequality within‐Race is higher and particularly in the Black race, with a greater concentration of the Black population at the bottom end of the wealth distribution. Further, the results show that the racial wealth gap between the Black race and the White race is high, with a typical Black household holding relatively less than 5% of the wealth held by a typical White household. Finally, we find that wealth varies significantly over the age profile, suggesting support for the life cycle hypothesis.Samson Mbewe: Researcher and postgraduate student, University of Cape Town, [email protected]
Ingrid Woolard: Research Associate, SALDRU, University of Cape Town, [email protected]
Acknowledgements:
Funding for this research from the Department of Planning, Monitoring and Evaluation is gratefully acknowledged
Subjective Well-Being Adult South Africans’ Life Satisfaction (2008 - 2014)
No full textThis discussion paper examines subjective well‐being using the National Income Dynamics Study. The survey is an individual level panel survey, with data collected biannually, with 4 waves available, from 2008‐2015. The survey is particularly rich, and in addition to economic measures of well‐being, it includes individual level data on subjective well‐being. Subjective well‐being is measured by asking respondents to rate their level of life satisfaction, at the point of being interviewed, and to think about how their current level of life satisfaction relates to their level of satisfaction historically.
Kahneman and Kreuger (2005) report that “while various measures of well‐being are useful for some
purposes, it is important to recognize that subjective well‐being measures features of individuals’
perceptions of their experiences, not their utility as economists typically conceive of it. Those perceptions are a more accurate gauge of actual feelings if they are reported closer to the time of, and in direct reference to, the actual experience.”
Therefore, studying subjective well‐being is worth pursuing, as actual feelings are a relevant gauge of an individual’s life satisfaction. These perceptions may be distorted – but are arguably the best measure of how an individual’s experience of the world at a given point in time is translated into well‐beingAcknowledgements:
Funding for this research from the Department of Planning, Monitoring and Evaluation is gratefully
acknowledged
Local communities’ valuation of environmental amenities around the Kgalagadi Transfrontier Park in Southern Africa
No full textThis paper seeks to examine how communities value a variety of dryland environmental amenities provided by the Kgalagadi Transfontier Park where there is an interest in limiting their access, both in order to protect the environment and in order to make it more attractive for tourists. This is done using a choice experiment, which targeted households in the Kgalagadi area. The values placed on environmental amenities by indigenous communities are estimated using a conditional logit model, a random parameter logit model and a random parameter logit model with interactions. The results show that local communities would prefer getting increased grazing opportunities and bush food collection. This is an important policy issue in itself, and it also ties in well with on-going discussions on how to compensate (or at least attach reasonable cost estimates to) losses to local communities linked to environmental preservation policies
Capital Flight and Foreign Direct Investment in Africa: An Investigation of the Role of Natural Resource Endowment
No full textThis paper aims to provide theoretical and empirical insights into the puzzling simultaneous rise in foreign direct investment inflows in Africa and capital flight from the continent over the past decades. It specifically explores two questions: is FDI a potential driver of capital flight? Is natural resource endowment a possible channel for the capital flight-FDI link? The econometric analysis is based on 32 African countries over the period 1970-2013 using dynamic panel data estimation methods. Three important findings emerge from the analysis. First, while there is no robust evidence that capital flight is fueled by annual FDI inflows (there is no equivalent to debt-fueled capital flight), there is a positive relationship between the stock of FDI and capital flight. Second, natural resource endowment is directly related positively to capital flight and resource endowment is associated with a stronger FDI stock-capital flight link, especially in the case of oil. Third, high-quality institutions somehow weaken the link between FDI and capital flight, although they do not completely eliminate the relationship. The results point to potential gains from improvements in institutional quality in African countries through minimizing the contribution of FDI and natural resources to capital flight.Léonce Ndikumana: Department of Economics and Political Economy Research Institute, University of
Massachusetts at Amherst. 418 N. Pleasant Street, Amherst, MA 01002. Email: [email protected]
Corresponding author.
Mare Sarr: School of Economics, University of Cape Town, Private Bag, Rondebosch 7701, South Africa.
Email: [email protected]
The authors appreciate research assistance by Emmanuel Letete as well as support from UNU/WIDER.
This research has been published UNU-WIDER Working Paper 2016/58. It is reproduced here with
acknowledgement of UNU-WIDER in Helsinki which commissioned the original study
Analysing the links between child health and education outcomes: Evidence from NIDS Waves 1 – 4
No full textThis paper explores the relationship between child nutrition and schooling outcomes using data from the National Income Dynamics Survey (NIDS) panel data. The recent release of the NIDS panel data from 2008-2015 presents the first opportunity to examine the implications of early child health on human capital accumulation at the national level. This work estimates the relationship between poor nutrition, measured by stunting and obesity in early childhood, and later schooling outcomes among children aged 7 to 14 years. The results suggest that young children who were stunted in Wave 1 go on to complete fewer years of schooling than the children who did not suffer from early under-nutrition, not only because they enter school at a later age, but because they progress more slowly through the schooling system. In contrast, no discernible relationship is identified between obesity status and schooling outcomes in young children.Daniela Casale: Associate Professor, Economics, University of the Witwatersrand.
[email protected]
Acknowledgements:
Funding for this research from the Department of Planning, Monitoring and Evaluation is gratefully
acknowledged