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Impacts of snow assimilation on seasonal snow and meteorological forecasts for the Tibetan Plateau
Get PDFThe Tibetan Plateau (TP) contains the largest amount of snow outside the polar regions and is the source of many major rivers in Asia. An accurate long-range (i.e. seasonal) meteorological forecast is of great importance for this region. The fifth-generation seasonal forecast system of the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (SEAS5) provides global long-range meteorological forecasts including over the TP. However, SEAS5 uses land initial conditions produced by assimilating Interactive Multisensor Snow and Ice Mapping System (IMS) snow data only below 1500 m altitude, which may affect the forecast skill of SEAS5 over mountainous regions like the TP. To investigate the impacts of snow assimilation on the forecasts of snow, temperature and precipitation, twin ensemble reforecasts are initialized with and without snow assimilation above 1500 m altitude over the TP for spring and summer 2018. Significant changes occur in the springtime. Without snow assimilation, the reforecasts overestimate snow cover and snow depth while underestimating daily temperature over the TP. Compared to satellite-based estimates, precipitation reforecasts perform better in the west TP (WTP) than in the east TP (ETP). With snow assimilation, the reforecasts of snow cover, snow depth and temperature are consistently improved in the TP in the spring. However, the positive bias between the precipitation reforecasts and satellite observations worsens in the ETP. Compared to the experiment with no snow assimilation, the snow assimilation experiment significantly increases temperature and precipitation for the ETP and around the longitude 95∘ E. The higher temperature after snow assimilation, in particular the cold bias reduction after initialization, can be attributed to the effects of a more realistic, decreased snowpack, providing favourable conditions for generating more precipitation. Overall, snow assimilation can improve seasonal forecasts through the interaction between land and atmosphere.publishedVersio
Model evaluation of short-lived climate forcers for the Arctic Monitoring and Assessment Programme: a multi-species, multi-model study
Get PDFWhile carbon dioxide is the main cause for global warming, modeling short-lived climate forcers (SLCFs) such as methane, ozone, and particles in the Arctic allows us to simulate near-term climate and health impacts for a sensitive, pristine region that is warming at 3 times the global rate. Atmospheric modeling is critical for understanding the long-range transport of pollutants to the Arctic, as well as the abundance and distribution of SLCFs throughout the Arctic atmosphere. Modeling is also used as a tool to determine SLCF impacts on climate and health in the present and in future emissions scenarios. In this study, we evaluate 18 state-of-the-art atmospheric and Earth system models by assessing their representation of Arctic and Northern Hemisphere atmospheric SLCF distributions, considering a wide range of different chemical species (methane, tropospheric ozone and its precursors, black carbon, sulfate, organic aerosol, and particulate matter) and multiple observational datasets. Model simulations over 4 years (2008–2009 and 2014–2015) conducted for the 2022 Arctic Monitoring and Assessment Programme (AMAP) SLCF assessment report are thoroughly evaluated against satellite, ground, ship, and aircraft-based observations. The annual means, seasonal cycles, and 3-D distributions of SLCFs were evaluated using several metrics, such as absolute and percent model biases and correlation coefficients. The results show a large range in model performance, with no one particular model or model type performing well for all regions and all SLCF species. The multi-model mean (mmm) was able to represent the general features of SLCFs in the Arctic and had the best overall performance. For the SLCFs with the greatest radiative impact (CH4, O3, BC, and SO), the mmm was within ±25 % of the measurements across the Northern Hemisphere. Therefore, we recommend a multi-model ensemble be used for simulating climate and health impacts of SLCFs. Of the SLCFs in our study, model biases were smallest for CH4 and greatest for OA. For most SLCFs, model biases skewed from positive to negative with increasing latitude. Our analysis suggests that vertical mixing, long-range transport, deposition, and wildfires remain highly uncertain processes. These processes need better representation within atmospheric models to improve their simulation of SLCFs in the Arctic environment. As model development proceeds in these areas, we highly recommend that the vertical and 3-D distribution of SLCFs be evaluated, as that information is critical to improving the uncertain processes in models.Model evaluation of short-lived climate forcers for the Arctic Monitoring and Assessment Programme: a multi-species, multi-model studypublishedVersio
Comparisons between the distributions of dust and combustion aerosols in MERRA-2, FLEXPART, and CALIPSO and implications for deposition freezing over wintertime Siberia
Get PDFAerosol distributions have a potentially large influence on climate-relevant cloud properties but can be difficult to observe over the Arctic given pervasive cloudiness, long polar nights, data paucity over remote regions, and periodic diamond dust events that satellites can misclassify as aerosol. We compared Arctic 2008–2015 mineral dust and combustion aerosol distributions from the Cloud-Aerosol Lidar and Infrared Pathfinder Satellite Observation (CALIPSO) satellite, the Modern-Era Retrospective analysis for Research and Applications, Version 2 (MERRA-2) reanalysis products, and the FLEXible PARTicle (FLEXPART) dispersion model. Based on coincident, seasonal Atmospheric Infrared Sounder (AIRS) Arctic satellite meteorological data, diamond dust may occur up to 60 % of the time in winter, but it hardly ever occurs in summer. In its absence, MERRA-2 and FLEXPART each predict the vertical and horizontal distribution of large-scale patterns in combustion aerosols with relatively high confidence (Kendall tau rank correlation > 0.6), although a sizable amount of variability is still unaccounted for. They do the same for dust, except in conditions conducive to diamond dust formation where CALIPSO is likely misclassifying diamond dust as mineral dust and near the surface...publishedVersio
Overvåking av langtransportert forurenset luft og nedbør. Atmosfæriske tilførsler 2021.
Get PDFThis report presents results from the monitoring of atmospheric composition and deposition of air pollution in 2021, and focuses on main components in air and precipitation, particulate and gaseous phase of inorganic constituents, particulate carbonaceous matter, ground level ozone and particulate matter. The level of pollution in 2021 was generally low with few high episodes.Denne rapporten omhandler resultater fra overvåkningsprogrammet for langtransportert forurenset luft og nedbør og atmosfæriske tilførsler i 2021. Rapporten presenterer målinger av uorganiske hovedkomponentene i luft og nedbør, partikulært karbonholdig materiale, partikkelmasse og bakkenært ozon. Forurensningsnivået i 2021 var generelt lavt med få høye episoder.publishedVersio
Air quality monitoring in the border areas of Norway and Russia, annual report 2021.
Get PDFSmelteverkene i nordvest-Russland slapp tidligere ut store mengder svoveldioksid (SO2) og tungmetaller. Utslippene påvirket luft- og nedbørkvalitet i grenseområdene. Smelteverket i Nikel stengte ned 23. desember 2020 og lokal luftkvalitet ble betydelig forbedret. Dog er det fortsatt utslipp fra varmekraftverket i Nikel i den kalde årstiden. Detaljer rundt utslippene fra Zapoljarnyj er ikke kjente. Herværende rapport viser resultatene for kalenderåret 2021, det vil si året etter stengningen. Nivåene av forurensning er lave og grenseverdier og målsettingsverdier er overholdt med klar margin.The nickel smelters in northwest-Russia emitted large quantities of sulphur dioxide (SO2) and heavy metals. These emissions lead to enhanced concentrations of environmental pollutants in the border areas. The smelter in Nikel ceased operation on 23 December 2020 and air quality improved substantially. However, there are still emissions from the heating plant in Nikel. The emissions from Zapolyarny are not well known. This report covers the calendar year 2021, i.e. after the smelter closed. The levels of pollutants are low and air quality in the border areas was in compliance with Norwegian limit values for SO2 for the calendar year 2021, as well as for seasonal mean for the winter 2020/21. Target values for Ni, As and Cd were not exceeded
Equal abundance of summertime natural and wintertime anthropogenic Arctic organic aerosols
Get PDFAerosols play an important yet uncertain role in modulating the radiation balance of the sensitive Arctic atmosphere. Organic aerosol is one of the most abundant, yet least understood, fractions of the Arctic aerosol mass. Here we use data from eight observatories that represent the entire Arctic to reveal the annual cycles in anthropogenic and biogenic sources of organic aerosol. We show that during winter, the organic aerosol in the Arctic is dominated by anthropogenic emissions, mainly from Eurasia, which consist of both direct combustion emissions and long-range transported, aged pollution. In summer, the decreasing anthropogenic pollution is replaced by natural emissions. These include marine secondary, biogenic secondary and primary biological emissions, which have the potential to be important to Arctic climate by modifying the cloud condensation nuclei properties and acting as ice-nucleating particles. Their source strength or atmospheric processing is sensitive to nutrient availability, solar radiation, temperature and snow cover. Our results provide a comprehensive understanding of the current pan-Arctic organic aerosol, which can be used to support modelling efforts that aim to quantify the climate impacts of emissions in this sensitive region.publishedVersio
The impact of climate sensitive factors on the exposure to organohalogenated contaminants in an aquatic bird exploiting both marine and freshwater habitats
Get PDFTo assess how climate-sensitive factors may affect the exposure to organochlorines (OCs) and perfluoroalkyl substances (PFASs), we monitored concentrations in eggs of the common goldeneye (Bucephala clangula) over two decades (1999–2019) in central Norway. The goldeneye alternates between marine and freshwater habitats and is sensitive to climate variation, especially due to alterations in ice conditions which may affect feeding conditions. We assessed how biological factors such as diet (stable isotopes δ13C and δ15N), the onset of egg laying, and physical characteristics such as winter climate (North Atlantic Oscillation: NAOw) influenced exposure. We predicted compounds to show different temporal trends depending on whether they were still in production (i.e. some PFASs) or have been banned (i.e. legacy OCs and some PFASs). Therefore, we controlled for potential temporal trends in all analyses. There were declining trends for α- and γ-hexachlorocyclohexane (HCH), oxychlordane, cis-chlordane, cis-nonachlor, p,p′-dichlorodiphenyltrichloroethane (p.p′-DDT) and less persistent polychlorinated biphenyl (PCB) congeners (e.g. PCB101). In contrast, the dominant compounds, such as p,p′-dichlorodiphenyldichloroethylene (p,p′-DDE) and persistent PCB congeners, were stable, whereas hexachlorobenzene (HCB) increased over time. Most OCs were positively related to δ15N, suggesting higher exposure in birds feeding at upper trophic levels. Chlordanes and HCB were positively associated with δ13C, indicating traces of marine input for these compounds, whereas the relationships to most PCBs were negative. Among PFASs, perfluorooctanesulfonamide (PFOSA) and perfluorohexane sulfonic acid (PFHxS) declined. Most PFASs were positively associated with δ13C, whereas there were no associations with δ15N. Egg laying date was positively associated to perfluoroheptanesulfonic acid (PFHpS), perfluorooctanesulfonic acid (PFOS) and perfluorooctanoic acid (PFOA), suggesting that some of the PFAS load originated from the wintering locations. Although NAOw had little impact on the exposure to organohalogenated contaminants, factors sensitive to climate change, especially diet, were associated with the exposure to OHCs in goldeneyes.publishedVersio
Non-target and suspect characterisation of organic contaminants in ambient air, Part I: Combining a novel sample clean-up method with comprehensive two-dimensional gas chromatography
Get PDFLong-term monitoring of regulated organic chemicals, such as legacy persistent organic pollutants (POPs) and polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs), in ambient air provides valuable information about the compounds' environmental fate as well as temporal and spatial trends. This is the foundation to evaluate the effectiveness of national and international regulations for priority pollutants. Extracts of high-volume air samples, collected on glass fibre filters (GFF for particle phase) and polyurethane foam plugs (PUF for gaseous phase), for targeted analyses of legacy POPs are commonly cleaned by treatment with concentrated sulfuric acid, resulting in extracts clean from most interfering compounds and matrices that are suitable for multi-quantitative trace analysis. Such standardised methods, however, severely restrict the number of analytes for quantification and are not applicable when targeting new and emerging compounds as some may be less stable under acid treatment. Recently developed suspect and non-target screening analytical strategies (SUS and NTS, respectively) are shown to be effective evaluation tools aimed at identifying a high number of compounds of emerging concern. These strategies, combining highly sophisticated analytical technology with extensive data interpretation and statistics, are already widely accepted in environmental sciences for investigations of various environmental matrices, but their application to air samples is still very limited. In order to apply SUS and NTS for the identification of organic contaminants in air samples, an adapted and more wide-scope sample clean-up method is needed compared to the traditional method, which uses concentrated sulfuric acid. Analysis of raw air sample extracts without clean-up would generate extensive contamination of the analytical system, especially with PUF matrix-based compounds, and thus highly interfered mass spectra and detection limits which are unacceptable high for trace analysis in air samples. In this study, a novel wide-scope sample clean-up method for high-volume air samples has been developed and applied to real high-volume air samples, which facilitates simultaneous target, suspect and non-target analyses. The scope and efficiency of the method were quantitatively evaluated with organic compounds covering a wide range of polarities (logP 2–11), including legacy POPs, brominated flame retardants (BFRs), chlorinated pesticides and currently used pesticides (CUPs). In addition, data reduction and selection strategies for SUS and NTS were developed for comprehensive two-dimensional gas chromatography separation with low-resolution time-of-flight mass spectrometric detection (GC × GC-LRMS) data and applied to real high-volume air samples. Combination of the newly developed clean-up procedure and data treatment strategy enabled the prioritisation of over 600 compounds of interest in the particle phase (on GFF) and over 850 compounds in the gas phase (on PUF) out of over 25 000 chemical features detected in the raw dataset. Of these, 50 individual compounds were identified and confirmed with reference standards, 80 compounds were identified with a probable structure, and 774 compounds were assigned to various compound classes. In the dataset available here, 11 hitherto unknown halogenated compounds were detected. These unknown compounds were not yet listed in the available mass spectral libraries.publishedVersio
Real-time UV index retrieval in Europe using Earth observation-based techniques: system description and quality assessment
Get PDFThis study introduces an Earth observation (EO)-based system which is capable of operationally estimating and continuously monitoring the ultraviolet index (UVI) in Europe. UVIOS (i.e., UV-Index Operating System) exploits a synergy of radiative transfer models with high-performance computing and EO data from satellites (Meteosat Second Generation and Meteorological Operational Satellite-B) and retrieval processes (Tropospheric Emission Monitoring Internet Service, Copernicus Atmosphere Monitoring Service and the Global Land Service). It provides a near-real-time nowcasting and short-term forecasting service for UV radiation over Europe. The main atmospheric inputs for the UVI simulations include ozone, clouds and aerosols, while the impacts of ground elevation and surface albedo are also taken into account. The UVIOS output is the UVI at high spatial and temporal resolution (5 km and 15 min, respectively) for Europe (i.e., 1.5 million pixels) in real time. The UVI is empirically related to biologically important UV dose rates, and the reliability of this EO-based solution was verified against ground-based measurements from 17 stations across Europe. Stations are equipped with spectral, broadband or multi-filter instruments and cover a range of topographic and atmospheric conditions. A period of over 1 year of forecasted 15 min retrievals under all-sky conditions was compared with the ground-based measurements. UVIOS forecasts were within ±0.5 of the measured UVI for at least 70 % of the data compared at all stations. For clear-sky conditions the agreement was better than 0.5 UVI for 80 % of the data. A sensitivity analysis of EO inputs and UVIOS outputs was performed in order to quantify the level of uncertainty in the derived products and to identify the covariance between the accuracy of the output and the spatial and temporal resolution and the quality of the inputs. Overall, UVIOS slightly overestimated the UVI due to observational uncertainties in inputs of cloud and aerosol. This service will hopefully contribute to EO capabilities and will assist the provision of operational early warning systems that will help raise awareness among European Union citizens of the health implications of high UVI doses.publishedVersio