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Essays on Hyperinflation, Seigniorage and Fiscal Voracity
Full text linkThis dissertation examines the macroeconomics of modern hyperinflation. The first chapter brings a broad set of stylized facts that depict a representative modern hyperinflation cycle. The second chapter, by estimating collected-seigniorage levels and a money demand function, assesses whether seigniorage-maximizing behavior by a monetary author- ity unleashed the last hyperinflation of the 21st century (occurring in Venezuela). Finally, the last chapter provides evidence on the evolution of fiscal voracity and its intergenerational implications in the country and argues its fundamental role in unleashing the phenomenon. The first chapter depicts the empirical regularities of modern hyperinflations. Using a database of up to 62 variables for 183 countries over 57 years, a hyperinflation cycle is characterized to propose a broader set of stylized facts. Under the proposed identification methodology, 19 hyperinflation cycle episodes were identified. Beyond the usual facts about hyperinflation (e.g. persistent fiscal deficits and extraordinary money growth), the findings in this chapter contribute to the literature of hyperinflation in that these cycles occur in contexts where there are (i) high natural resource rents, (ii) depressed economic freedoms, (iii) deteriorated socioeconomic conditions and rule of law, and (iv) high levels of domestic unrest and government instability. Hyperinflation cycles end when there are improvements on three essential fronts: (i) the fiscal and monetary mix: fiscal accounts are closer to equilibrium and base money growth decreases substantially; (ii) the interaction with the external sector: barriers to international trade diminish and the exp/imp capacity of the economy increases significantly, the burden of foreign debt on exports regularizes, the resounding level of devaluation of the currency is stopped hand in hand with less variability of the foreign exchange rate; and (iii) structural factors: economic freedoms improve and there is greater government stability. Finally, the role of international financial assistance instabilization was studied, noting that (i) a clear majority of hyperinflation countries used it, further improving their (ii) economic freedoms, and allowing themselves (iii) greater fiscal flexibility and (iv) more exchange rate stability. The second chapter estimates seigniorage levels in the Venezuelan economy from 1996 to 2018 and uses a money demand empirical framework to determine whether a seigniorage-maximizing inflation rate was passed, providing a rational on the development of hyperinflation in the country. The results of the chapter suggest that, over the period of study,the Venezuelan government acted as a seigniorage maximizer. The model predicts that the seigniorage-maximizing rate of inflation of the Venezuelan economy occurred around the second and third quarters of 2016 at a monthly inflation rate between 15 and 36 percent, a figure well below both, the actual average inflation rate registered for this period of 62 percent and Cagan (1956) 50 percent hyperinflation threshold. While in the period just before the advent to hyperinflation, that is, when the equilibrium relationship between money supply and the demand for real balances parameters was still stable, the seigniorage-maximizing rate was around 11 percent, a figure well above the actual average inflation rate of 6 percent for this period. One of the implications of this result is that when facing the choice of maximizing short-run seigniorage at the expense of long-run seigniorage, the government opted for the former and faced the perils of hyperinflation. The role of exchange rate expectations and currency substitution was studied, and the results disregard its relevance in determining the demand for real money balances in the hyperinflation phase. The study also shows how the economic regime of the last 25 years, by increasing the role of the public sector in the economy through a series of interventions, has managed to expropriate an important part of the population’s wealth, whereas the previous regime, through less intervention, respect to basic economic freedoms, and standard macroeconomic management, never put itself on the “bad” side of the inflation tax Laffer curve. The final chapter provides evidence on the evolution of fiscal procyclicality in Venezuela and its intergenerational consequences for the period 1962-2017 by (i) estimating a model of time-varying parameters (TV-SVAR) that allows to depict the behavior of fiscal policy in Venezuela trough time and (ii) use the model’s output and expenditure elasticities in an intergenerational accounting framework to evaluate the generational consequences of such behavior and (iii) compare them with a counterfactual scenario in which fiscal policy would have been more moderate. Results from the TV-SVAR model suggests that procyclicality deteriorated, particularly since 2007, a year coincident with the increase of the intervention of the State in the economy. These results also show that the direct multiplier effect of oil revenues in the non-oil economy has decreased over the period. A similar pattern is shown for the indirect multiplier of oil (through the fiscal multiplier channel). Conversely, results from the same model applied to the Colombian case show that procyclicality improved, particularly since the adoption of a fiscal rule in 2000. Results from the generational accounting framework show that a more prudent fiscal policy would have left future generations with a lower fiscal burden, but that this was not enough to fully comply with the intertemporal budget constraint: lower financing costs as well as higher growth were needed as well
Toxicity and Environmental Interactions of Per- and Polyfluoroalkyl Substances (PFAS) in Plants: Assessments from Protein Structural Changes to Seasonal Absorption Dynamics
No full textPer- and polyfluoroalkyl substances (PFAS) are persistent environmental pollutants that pose significant risks to both ecosystems and human health. Despite extensive contamination by PFAS and their effects on human health, substantial knowledge gaps remain regarding their impact on plants. This dissertation addresses some of these gaps by (1) systematically reviewing existing literature to identify critical unresolved issues and summarize the molecular responses of plants to PFAS, (2) investigating the toxicity of selected long-chain fluorotelomer alcohols (FTOHs) and their newly introduced short-chain counterparts in the model plant Arabidopsis thaliana and examining the impact of FTOH on the secondary structure of proteins in the model plant A. thaliana, and (3) exploring the seasonal absorption dynamics of PFAS in selected native aquatic plants in the Chesapeake Bay area.To achieve these objectives, A. thaliana was grown under controlled environmental conditions and Fourier-transform infrared spectroscopy (FTIR) was used to analyze structural changes in plant proteins. Additionally, samples of native plant species (coontail and wild celery) were collected from Belmont Bay and Gunston Cove during the growing season to capture temporal variations in PFAS uptake by aquatic plants. Liquid chromatography-mass spectrometry (LC-MS) quantified PFAS concentrations in plant tissues. Toxicity tests conducted on A. thaliana, found that the IC50 values of 8:2 FTOH were lower than those of short-chain counterparts. Despite this, germination and growth results indicated that the short-chain FTOH (6:2 FTOH) is more toxic than the long-chain FTOH (8:2 FTOH), causing significant alterations in the secondary structure of plant proteins even at lower concentrations. In the study of seasonal absorption dynamics of PFAS in native aquatic plants in the Chesapeake Bay area, temporal trends in PFAS absorption were observed. PFAS were detected in both water and plant samples. Notably, a short-chain PFAS, perfluorobutanoic acid (PFBA) emerged as the most dominant compound in all matrices, with its concentrations in plant tissues decreasing over time and influenced by environmental conditions. The native plant species coontail demonstrated higher capacities for PFAS accumulation, suggesting its potential use in phytoremediation. These findings provide critical insights into the molecular mechanisms of PFAS toxicity and their ecological impacts, offering valuable information for developing strategies to manage PFAS contamination and protect environmental and public health. The results highlight the importance of considering newly introduced short-chain PFAS compounds and underscore the need for comprehensive risk assessment and mitigation strategies in terrestrial as well as aquatic ecosystems. Keywords: PFAS, aquatic plants, Arabidopsis thaliana, FTOH, toxicity tests, IC50, 8:2 FTOH, 6:2 FTOH, PFBA, protein secondary structure, coontail, Ceratophyllum demersum, wild celery Vallisneria americana, aquatic plants, Chesapeake Bay, temporal trends
Theoretical Foundation and Qualitative Analysis of Resilience in Multiteam Systems
Full text linkMultiteam systems (MTSs) are complex networks of teams that must work within and among themselves to accomplish interdependent goals, and are often formed to address situations and contexts that are extreme, urgent, or high stakes. To succeed, MTSs must demonstrate resilience to the many goal threats they are likely to face. To understand what is the nature of resilience in multiteam systems, and how the nature of multiteam systems influences their resilience, I derive a conceptual framework of MTS resilience from multidisciplinary literature. I empirically examine the proposed relationships through a collective case study of two sets of multi-source, longitudinal, real-world MTS data, concurrently analyzed with a mixed-methods approach. Theme 1 suggests that as goal threat urgency increases, MTSs are more likely to employ active resilience, which in turn leads to better viability outcomes, compared to passive resilience enactment, especially for high-urgency goal threats. Theme 2 states that MTSs with higher cognitive and social resilience capacities use active resilience enactment more often than passive enactment and have formal learning processes. MTSs use affective resilience capacity to offset opposing levels of cognitive and social resilience capacities, and those with lower cognitive and social resilience capacities also have either informal or no learning processes. Finally, theme 3 shows that MTS differentiation, especially from between-team functional diversity, hurts social and affective resilience capacities and, in turn, resilience effectiveness outcomes
Civilian Security Under Government Captivity: Children Experiences of Law and Security in the Nigerian-Boko Haram Conflict
Full text linkThis research investigates the dynamics of children's security in conflict zones, with a
focused examination on Nigeria, particularly the challenges posed by groups like Boko
Haram. Employing a qualitative research approach, informed by methodologies outlined
in Keith Punch and Jonathan Smith's works, the thesis aims to provide a detailed
understanding of the factors influencing children's safety in such hazardous
environments, while evaluating existing legal and policy frameworks. The choice of
Nigeria as a case study offers insights into the complexities of its federal system and the
implications for the implementation of laws concerning children's rights. Three research
questions address the adequacy of Nigerian laws: To what extent do Nigerian laws and
policies aim to protect children? As these policies are implemented through government
entities, such as the military and police, how, if at all, do they fall short in protecting
children? And when they are implementing the law and the policies in the context of anti-terrorism, specifically against Boko Haram, what does the legal plan look like in the antiterrorism
application? Through a comprehensive analysis of Nigerian legal documents
spanning a decade, coupled with archival interviews sourced from reputable
organizations, including Amnesty International and Human Rights Watch, the research
delves into the lived experiences and perceptions of children affected by conflict.
Thematic analysis of these interviews, guided by Clarke and Braun's approach, identifies
recurring themes such as arbitrary arrest, physical abuse, and psychological trauma,
shedding light on the challenges faced by children in conflict-affected regions.
Additionally, a comparative analysis of data from various sources enhances
understanding of the broader context surrounding children's security. Despite the
researcher encountering limitations such as data scarcity and emotional distress during
data collection, the study underscores the imperative of prioritizing children's well-being
amid conflict.
Furthermore, the research highlights the disparities between legal mandates and
their implementation, particularly concerning the Nigerian government's response to the
threat posed by Boko Haram. Despite legal provisions aimed at safeguarding children,
including those outlined in the Nigerian Constitution and the Child Rights Act of 2003,
the study reveals significant gaps in enforcement and protection mechanisms. In the
context of counter-terrorism efforts, the Nigerian military's detention policies exhibit a
disregard for established laws, exposing children to risks of abuse and neglect. The
findings underscore the urgent need for a coherent and rights-based approach to antiterrorism
strategies, one that prioritizes the protection of vulnerable populations,
including children. By explaining these complexities, this research serves as a critical resource for policymakers, practitioners, and scholars engaged in efforts to address
children's security in conflict-affected regions. Ultimately, it highlights the importance of
protecting children's rights and keeping them safe during conflicts, which helps create a
safer and more inclusive future for everyone
TRIANGULATING DESPAIR: DESI CULTURES OF CRISIS AND CARE IN RESEARCH TRIANGLE, NORTH CAROLINA
No full textUsing frameworks from queer studies and diaspora studies, this dissertation engages in a multi-modal ethnography of the South Asian (desi) community of Research Triangle, North Carolina. Emerging from a number of suicides in the community, the limited psychological literature that highlighted a high risk of suicidality among young South Asian Americans, and my own lived experience with suicidality and mental illness, I establish what I call ‘crises of despair’ and the cultural institutions that exacerbate them.First, this project traces the history of the South Asian diaspora, accounting for norms around caste, class, gender, and nationalisms. I then introduce the imaginary of Uncle Swami (first introduced by Vijay Prashad, 2012) who I animate to encompass the machinations of Hindu nationalism, the violence of Brahmanical patriarchy, and the global expectations of neoliberal meritocracy; I then explore how Uncle Swami contributes to despair for young people in the community. Finally, I introduce Uncle Swami’s foil, the Conspiratorial Auntie, and look at how she helps young people side-step his harm – while also exploring how the next generation has taken up the mantle and radicalized her. This work seeks to legitimize the causes of despair for South Asian Americans in the Research Triangle community, while also exploring the particularity of the protective measures that the community has produced to relieve them. Through this dissertation, readers can find alternative frameworks to understand the causes of despair in the community and can better locate the interventions happening to alleviate it
Ground-based Light Curve Follow-up Validation observations of TESS object of interest TOI 5443.01
No full text“This study presents a light curve indicating a high possibility of a transiting exoplanet. This potential exoplanet, TOI 5443.01, was originally theorized to exist by the Transiting Exoplanet Survey Satellite (TESS), which uses the transit method to attempt to find exoplanets. It is necessary, however, to perform ground-based follow-up observations and analysis of a potential exoplanet to prove it exists. In this study, we demonstrate that TOI 5443.01 most likely exists by utilizing AstroImageJ and a Python program named Alnitak, with images taken by the George Mason University 0.8-meter telescope. However, a detailed follow-up analysis on Nearby Eclipsing Binaries (NEBs) within the Gaia field of the star TOI 5443 must be performed.
EXPLORING AND ASSESSING THE QUALITY OF UNIVERSITY SUPERVISORS' WRITTEN PERFORMANCE FEEDBACK PRACTICES AND PROCESSES USED TO IMPROVE IMPLEMENTATION OF TEACHER PRACTICES IN SPECIAL EDUCATION TEACHER CANDIDATES
Full text linkThis dissertation combines three complementary studies that focused on the assessment and determined the quality of the written performance feedback practices and processes used by university supervisors with special education teacher candidates (SETCs) to improve their practice during field experiences. In the first study, a systematic review of the empirical research was conducted to determine the critical components of effective written performance feedback interventions. We used empirical research from the systematic literature review in the second study and analyzed each intervention's method section. We then combined those practices into an initial measurement tool to assess the quality of written feedback practices and processes. We conducted cognitive interviews and expert reviews to refine the initial version of the Quality of Written Performance Feedback for Improvement of Practices and Process (QWIPP) tool. In the third study, we used data from a larger IES grant-funded project to investigate three essential things: (a) the quality of written feedback practices and processes of university supervisors, (b) whether there is a significant difference in their QWIPP scores based on the type of form used by the supervisor, and (c) the overall reliability of the QWIPP. The results showed a significant range of practices and processes used by university supervisors, no significant difference in QWIPP scores based on form type, and that the QWIPP has strong inter-rater reliability scores (i.e., 92%) and internal reliability for a new measurement tool (i.e., Cronbach’s α = 0.73). Synthetization of findings across studies include critical recommendations that include: (a) designing training for university supervisors to ensure they are using best practices when they develop their written feedback; (b) using best-written performance feedback practices is a simple solution that has utility and flexibility to be used across multiple facets to address the special education teacher shortage; (c) identifying university supervisors practices impact candidates, and they should not rely on their observation protocols to give high quality written feedback to their teacher candidates; (d) there is value-added to institutes of higher education providing teacher preparation by focusing on the best practices in written performance feedback. This dissertation thoroughly examines the best practices and processes of written performance feedback that informs teacher preparation practices and future impact on the field and policymaking to further enhance educational outcomes for students with disabilities by focusing on the implementation fidelity of the practice of SETCs
Ground-based Light Curve Follow-up Validation observations of TESS object of interest TOI 5868.01
No full text“Here we present the discovery and validation of a hot Jupiter around a mid F-type star TOI-5868.01, with a radius of 2.41±0.12 R☉ (R_sun) and an orbital period of 2.6 days, using a combination of Transiting Exoplanets Survey Satellite (TESS) and follow-up ground base telescope at George Mason University. To achieve this, extraction and analysis of the raw data collected by the GMU Observatory were processed through plate solving and detrended using AstroImageJ. The light curve data were used to determine the stellar parameters and the exoplanet data. Our research strongly suggests that TOI-5868.01 can potentially be classified as a hot Jupiter with a short orbital period around a rather large F5 star and is an interesting candidate for atmospheric spectroscopy with JWST.
The Emergence of Afghan Nationalism: Islam, Modernity, and the State
Full text linkIn the early 19th century, the rulers of Afghanistan found themselves an opportune moment to reform society’s traditional power structures, centralize the political power of their state, and to modernize their society on Western lines. The inherent problem with all three of these pursuits was the incompatibility present between modernity with its Western origin and the classical Islamic paradigm that dominated Afghanistan and the Muslim world. These changes, also, were incumbent on the adoption of nationalism as the state’s ideology as it was only nationalism that could provide the state with the necessary political legitimacy and justification to pursue these, often aggressive, modernization reforms. This thesis seeks to argue that, in order to find that said nationalism, the Afghan elite, namely Mahmud Tarzi, attempted to invent a new “Afghan” nation, from which a nationalism was derived, that relied on Islam, the Pashtun culture and language, and the territorial bounds of the Afghan state as the basis for it existence. This formulation used Islam in a manner that was a break from the past and that used anti-colonialist rhetoric in the face of the reality that much of its intellectual origins traced back to the Western powers that it sought to reject. In turn, Amanullah Khan, who saw himself as Afghanistan’s enlightened ruler, sought to use this newly developed nationalism to break the power of the tribes and the ‘Ulema, who dominated Afghan society, and to subsume their power structures and institutions under the purview of the state
Ground-based Light Curve Follow-up Validation observations of TESS object of interest TOI 3798.01
Full text link“Exoplanets are planets that orbit stars other than our sun. There are several methods for detecting them, of which the transit method is the most common. The goal of this paper is to use the data collected from George Mason University’s (GMU’s) ground-based 0.8m telescope to provide a follow-up validation of the existence of candidate exoplanet TOI-3798.01 using the transit method, which the Transiting Exoplanet Survey Satellite (TESS) discovered from space also using the transit method. We used AstroImageJ to create a light curve using GMU’s telescope data. We also created a nearby eclising binary (NEB) table to check for the presence of NEBs, which could have led to a false positive detection of TOI-3798.01. We were unable to reach a definitive conclusion on whether TOI-3798.01 exists for three reasons: usable data was only available starting partway through the transit, the data was significantly scattered, and none of the stars within a 2.5” radius of TOI-3798 passed the NEB check. This means that future work such as using the transit method again with enough usable data, or a verification using another method such as the radial velocity method, is necessary to confirm the existence of TOI-3798.01.