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Monetary policy strategies, financial institutions and financial markets in the Middle East and North Africa: an overview
Get PDFThree polar types of monetary architecture are identified together with the institutional and market infrastructure required for each type and the kinds of monetary policy feasible in each case: a ‘basic’ architecture where there is little or no financial system as such but an elementary central bank which is able to fix the exchange rate, as a substitute for a proper monetary policy; a ‘modern’ monetary architecture with developed banks, financial markets and central bank where policy choices include types of inflation targeting; and an ‘intermediate’ monetary architecture where less market-based monetary policies involving less discretion are feasible. A range of data is used to locate the various MENA countries with respect to these polar types. Five countries (Iran, Libya, Sudan, Syria and Yemen) are identified as those with the least developed monetary architecture, while Bahrain and Jordan are identified as the group at the other end of the spectrum, reaching beyond the intermediate polar type in some dimensions but not others. The countries in between vary on different dimensions but all lie between basic and intermediate architectures. The key general findings are that the MENA countries are both less differentiated and less ‘developed’ than might have been expected. The paper ends by calling for research on the costs and benefits of different types of monetary architecture
Inverted Haavelmo Effects in a General Equilibrium Analysis of the Impact of Implementing the Scottish Variable Rate of Income Tax.
Get PDFThe Scottish Parliament has the authority to make a balanced-budget expansion or contraction in public expenditure, funded by corresponding local changes in the basic rate of income tax of up to 3p in the pound. This fiscal adjustment is known as the Scottish Variable Rate of income tax, though it has never, as yet, been used. In this paper we attempt to identify the impact on aggregate economic activity in Scotland of implementing these devolved fiscal powers. This is achieved through theoretical analysis and simulation using a Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) model for Scotland. This analysis generalises the conventional Keynesian model so that negative balanced-budget multipliers values are possible, reflecting a regional “inverted Haavelmo effect”. Key parameters determining the aggregate economic impact are the extent to which the Scottish Government create local amenities valuable to the Scottish population and the extent to which this is incorporated into local wage bargaining
Improving Students’ Learning Aspirations Beyond Post-Primary Education: A First Account of Two Non-Formal Education Programmes in Middle-Income
Get PDFNon-formal education programmes are active in a number of developing countries.
These programmes offer vulnerable students an opportunity to pursue their education
although they were excluded for various reasons from the formal education systems.
This paper examines the impact of two programmes (one in Mauritius, and one in
Thailand) on their participants’ aspirations towards learning.
We develop a methodology to measure the perception of students regarding their
learning experience. More than a third of them, for example, believe that there is no
barrier to their education. Most acknowledge the role of their teachers in raising their
aspirations towards their educational achievement. When compared to male students,
female students seem to value more the role of their education
Balanced Budget Government Spending in a Small Open Regional Economy
Get PDFThis paper investigates the impact of a balanced budget fiscal policy expansion in a regional context within a numerical dynamic general equilibrium model. We take Scotland as an example where, recently, there has been extensive debate on greater fiscal autonomy. In response to a balanced budget fiscal expansion the model suggests that: an increase in current government purchase in goods and services has negative multiplier effects only if the elasticity of substitution between private and public consumption is high enough to move downward the marginal utility of private consumers; public capital expenditure crowds in consumption and investment even with a high level of congestion; but crowding out effects might arise in the short-run if agents are myopic
Fear of model misspecifcation and the robustness premium
Get PDFRobust decision making implies welfare costs or robustness premia when the approximating model is the true data generating process.
To examine the importance of these premia at the aggregate level we employ a simple two-sector dynamic general equilibrium model with
human capital and introduce an additional form of precautionary behavior. The latter arises from the robust decision maker s ability to reduce the effects of model misspecification through allocating time
and existing human capital to this end. We find that the extent of the robustness premia critically depends on the productivity of time relative to that of human capital. When the relative efficiency of time is low, despite transitory welfare costs, there are gains from following robust policies in the long-run. In contrast, high relative productivity of time implies misallocation costs that remain even in the long-run. Finally, depending on the technology used to reduce model uncertainty,
we fi nd that while increasing the fear of model misspecfi cation leads to a net increase in precautionary behavior, investment and output can fall
The Changing Inter-Industry Wage Structure of the Organised Manufacturing Sector in India, 1973-74 to 2003-04
Get PDFThis study examines the inter-industry wage structure of the organised manufacturing
sector in India for the period 1973-74 to 2003-04 by estimating the growth of average
real wages for production workers by industry. In order to estimate the growth rates, the study adopts a methodological framework that differs from other studies in that the time series properties of the concerned variables are closely considered in order to obtain meaningful estimates of growth that are unbiased and (asymptotically) efficient. Using
wage data on 51 manufacturing industries at three digit level of the National Industrial
Classification 1998 (India), our estimation procedure obtains estimates of growth of real
wages per worker that are deterministic in nature by accounting for any potential
structural break(s). Our findings show that the inter-industry wage structure in India has changed a lot in the period 1973-74 to 2003-04 and that it provides some evidence that the inter-industry wage differences have become more pronounced in the post-reforms period. Thus this paper provides new evidence from India on the need to consider the hypothesis that industry affiliation is potentially an important determinant of wages when
studying any relationship between reforms and wages
The effects of the generalized use of iodized salt on occupational patterns in Switzerland.
Get PDFThis paper examines the impact of salt iodization in Switzerland in the 1920s and
1930s on occupational patterns of cohorts born after the intervention. The generalized
use of iodized salt successfully combatted iodine deficiency disorders, which were previously endemic in some areas of Switzerland. The most important effect of universal prophylaxis by means of iodized salt was the eradication of mental retardation inflicted in utero by lack of iodine. This paper looks for evidence of increased cognitive ability
of those treated with iodine in utero by examining the occupational choice and characteristics of occupations chosen by cohorts born after the intervention. By exploiting variation in pre-existing conditions and in the timing of the intervention, I find that cohorts born in previously highly-deficient areas after the introduction of iodized salt
self-selected into higher-paying occupations. I also find that the characteristics of occupations
in those areas changed, and that cohorts born after the intervention engaged
to a higher degree in occupations with higher cognitive demands, whereas they opted
out of physical-labor-intensive occupations
An Optimised Illustrative Investment Model Of The Economics Of Integrated Returns From CCS Deployment In The UK/UKCS
Get PDFNORTH SEA STUDY OCCASIONAL PAPER
No. 11
The Effects of the European Emissions Trading Scheme (EU ETS) on Activity in the UK Continental Shelf (UKCS) and CO2 Leakage
Get PDFNORTH SEA STUDY OCCASIONAL PAPER
No. 11
Union Mediation and Adaptation to Reciprocal Loyalty Arrangements
Get PDFThis study assesses the industrial relations application of the „loyalty-exit-voice‟ proposition. The loyalty concept is linked to reciprocal employer-employee arrangements and examined as a job attribute in a vignette questionnaire distributed to low and medium-skilled employees. The responses provided by employees in three European countries indicate that reciprocal loyalty arrangements, which involve the exchange of higher effort for job security, are one of the most desirable job attributes. This attribute exerts a higher impact on the job evaluations provided by unionised workers, compared to their non-union counterparts. This pattern is robust to a number of methodological considerations. It appears to be an outcome of adaptation to union mediated cooperation. Overall the evidence suggests that the loyalty-job evaluation profiles of unionised workers are receptive to repeated interaction and negative shocks, such as unemployment experience. This is not the case for the non-union workers. Finally, unionised workers appear to „voice‟ a lower job satisfaction, but exhibit low „exit‟ intentions, compared to the non-unionised labour