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Impact of monetary policy on corporate defaults and associated welfare costs
No full textOur study investigates the impact of the key monetary policy instruments—quantitative easing and forward guidance—on corporate default and associated welfare costs. To this end, we employ a competitive equilibrium framework that features cash-in-advance constraints and endogenous corporate default. At the medium level of default and monetary policies, the welfare cost of corporate default is estimated to exceed $9 billion, based on 2019Q4. While both monetary policies reduce default risk, their welfare implications differ: quantitative easing increases the welfare costs of corporate defaults, whereas forward guidance alleviates them. These contrasting effects highlight the importance of adopting a balanced approach to monetary policy design, which is critical for central banks and economic policymakers. By incorporating endogenous default into the competitive equilibrium framework, the model enhances sensitivity and responsiveness to monetary policy fluctuations, underscoring the role of default risk as a pivotal connector between the real economic landscape and the financial sector
Examining family member characteristics by treatment status of the relative with substance use problems
No full textBackground and Objectives:Family involvement is increasingly recognised as important to the treatment and recovery of individuals with substance use disorders. While affected family members (AFMs) can play a critical role in enhancing treatment engagement and improving outcomes, there is limited understanding of their characteristics and how these relate to whether their relative with substance use problems (RSU) is receiving treatment. This study examines factors associated with the treatment status of RSU, based on reports from and characteristics of AFMs who sought support through a public family programme.Methods:Records of 4471 AFMs who sought support from a family support programme in Brazil were analysed.Results:For 81.9% of AFMs, the RSU was not in treatment at the time of entry. AFMs with RSUs in treatment were more likely to be older, male, cohabiting with the RSU, and reported fewer negative symptoms, better understanding of addiction, and less conflict over substance use. RSUs in treatment were more likely to be female, educated, and have dual alcohol and drug use problems.Discussion and Conclusions:Findings highlight factors linked to treatment status and offer directions for future research on substance use treatment and family dynamics.Scientific Significance:By analysing a large sample of AFMs, this study offers empirical support for the role of family context and interpersonal dynamics in treatment access. These insights highlight the importance of integrating family-based approaches into substance use intervention strategies
A hybrid FAIR and XGBoost framework for cyber-risk intelligence and expected loss prediction
Full text linkThis paper presents a hybrid framework integrating the Factor Analysis of Information Risk (FAIR) model with XGBoost and SHAP explainablity for cyber risk intelligence. We extend traditional FAIR methodology by developing a composite Risk Exposure Score (RES) that unifies frequency, vulnerability, control maturity, loss severity, and operational downtime into a standardised metric for risk stratification and machine learning analysis. Our novel NIST CSF-based control maturity quantification provides objective measures of security effectiveness using technology (40%), process (35%), and people (25%) weightings derived from empirical correlation analysis. Testing on 3000 simulated cyber incident scenarios reveals threshold effects, with Expected Annual Loss exhibiting exponential growth beyond RES values of 0.4. SHAP analysis identifies Primary Loss and Technology Score as the most influential EAL predictors, demonstrating that control maturity effectiveness diminishes significantly in high-exposure environments. We deployed a Streamlit-based dashboard operationalising the framework for risk analysts, cyber insurers, and governance professionals. The system processes threat intelligence data, generates probabilistic risk scenarios, and provides real-time risk calculations through an interactive interface. This research contributes the first deployable integration of FAIR quantitative modelling with explainable ML, addressing the research-to-practice gap in cyber-risk quantification while supporting regulatory compliance requirements under NIS2 and SEC cybersecurity disclosure mandates
Male circumcision and HIV risk compensation among men who have sex with men: a systematic review and meta-analysis
No full textMale circumcision (MC) has been shown to reduce the risk of HIV infection among men who have sex with men (MSM) in a recent randomised controlled trial. A question that remains unanswered is whether MC in MSM implies HIV compensation, i.e. condomless sex and/or multiple sex partners. We searched PubMed, Embase, and the Cochrane Library for relevant studies published before November 5, 2024 and reviewed references of included studies. We included interventional and observational studies reporting original quantitative data on the association between MC and condom use or the number of sex partners among MSM. Odds ratios (ORs) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs) were extracted directly from the studies or calculated from available data when necessary. A Mantel–Haenszel random effects model was used to calculate pooled ORs and CIs. The final analysis included 41,694 MSM from 15 eligible studies. No statistically significant association was found between MC and condomless sex (OR 1.02, 95% CI 0.91–1.14; k = 13; I2 = 18%) or multiple sex partners (OR 1.03, 95% CI 0.94–1.12; k = 10; I2 = 12%) among MSM. The lack of association persisted in the great majority of subgroup analyses, encompassing country income, age, recruitment setting, time length, year of recruitment, circumcision assessment, proportion circumcised, or risk of bias. In conclusion, MC among MSM was not found to be associated with either condomless sex or multiple sex partners. Nonetheless, standard minimum service packages, as per WHO guidelines, should be integrated and consistently provided within MC programs to better protect MSM from HIV infection
Synergic effect of mechanical oscillation and metal foam on energy storage of PCM-concentrated photovoltaic modules: numerical study
No full textThis research explores the combined effect of mechanical oscillation and metal foam on the thermal energy storage of a concentrated photovoltaic cell with a phase change material (PCM) enclosure. Various parameters such as foam porosity (85 %, 90 %, 95 %), oscillation frequency (5, 10, 20 Hz), and amplitude (0.5, 1, 1.5 mm) were studied for their impact on liquid fraction, temperature, and vorticity. The study found that PCM melts faster with mechanical oscillation due to increased circulation flow. Horizontal oscillation proved more effective than vertical, significantly reducing the complete melting time for PCM and PCM-foam mixtures, especially at 85 % porosity. As a result, the complete melting time of the PCM, PCM-foam porosity of 85 %, 90 % and 95 % under horizontal oscillation is 18.8 %, 45.7 %, 38.9 % and 35.3 % lower than the one in identical cases under vertical oscillation. Higher oscillation frequency and amplitude further reduced melting time by 22 % and 17 % respectively through generating larger vortices and enhancing convective heat transfer.</p
Analysis of output performance and low-grade heat recovery efficiency in thermal regeneration ammonia-based flow battery under various flow fields
No full textThe structure of the flow channel has a crucial impact on output capability and thermoelectric conversion efficiency of the Thermal Regeneration Ammonia-based Flow Battery (TRAFB) used for waste heat recovery. In this work, the three-dimensional numerical models of the battery with various flow channel configurations, which couple mass transfer and electrochemical reactions, have been established. Firstly, a comparative analysis of five classical flow channels (rectangular, parallel, interdigitated, serpentine, and spiral) is conducted to examine their influence on the battery's voltage, power, electrical capacity, energy density, active species concentration distribution, and uniformity. Subsequently, the effects of flow channel depth, width, and initial reactant molarity on the battery's output capability and energy storage performance are explored to optimize the flow channel structural parameters and battery operating parameters. In addition, the thermoelectric conversion capability of the battery is a key focus of the study. The research results indicate that the battery with a serpentine flow channel demonstrates the best performance. In terms of enhancing the battery performance, the order is serpentine > spiral > interdigitated > parallel > rectangular. Moreover, by reducing the depth and width of the flow channel, the peak power, energy density, and electrical capacity of the battery can be further enhanced. In addition, as initial Cu2+ molarity grows, the peak power, energy density, and electrical capacity of the battery all show a trend of first increasing and then decreasing, with the maximum values achieved at 0.4 M initial Cu2+ molarity. After enhancement by the serpentine flow channel with both depth and width of 0.5 mm, up to ∼50.00 % Carnot relative efficiency can be attained by the battery during low-power operation. Even when operating at limited power, it is still capable of achieving a Carnot relative efficiency of ∼11.22 %, which is significantly higher than the 5 % commercial benchmark
From regulation to innovation: eco-compensation and environmental sustainability in heavily polluting enterprises
No full textIn China's pursuit of ecological civilization and high-quality growth, it remains unclear how environmental regulation in China moves from a cost burden to a driver of innovation. Leveraging the eco-compensation reward–punish program as a quasi-experimental setting, we compile firm-year data for A-share listed companies over 2007–2023 and implement a staggered difference-in-differences design to identify its impact on key-core technology breakthroughs among heavily polluting enterprises to unpack the operative channels. The study indicates stronger effects in industries with higher product-market competition, among firms embedded in global innovation networks, and for enterprises located in old industrial base cities. Mechanism tests show that the program operates by enhancing firms' data-element utilization, fostering university industry collaboration, and reducing the risk of innovation failure, thereby translating regulatory incentives into frontier outputs. The study links horizontal eco-compensation to breakthrough innovation and articulates a data collaboration risk-governance capability stack that transmits regulatory pressure into core-technology advances, enriching the intersection of environmental governance and innovation economics. Practically, the results point to calibrating reward–sanction intensity and enforcement credibility under heterogeneous competitive and global-linkage conditions, strengthening data governance and collaborative R&D incentives, and using breakthrough outputs as a core performance metric for eco-compensation policy.</p
Zelensky’s most notable war instrument: the use of ‘reels’ on Instagram
No full textThis study analyzes social media publications, in particular Instagram reels, by the President of Ukraine, Volodymyr Zelensky during the Ukrainian War to demonstrate the reach of this audiovisual narrative type for crisis communication and their utility as a war tool. Since Russia invaded Ukraine on February 24th 2022, Zelensky has been very active on social media. This is particularly the case on Instagram, where he has over 17 million followers. Zelensky’s previous professional background as a successful actor and audiovisual producer qualifies him to publish technically and persuasively high-quality videos on Instagram. This investigation analyzes 2,175 videos (also known as reels) from Zelensky’s official Instagram profile during the first year of the war (2022). The analysis of data suggests that the Ukrainian leader has built a remarkable audiovisual discourse through social media. He has done this by implementing a professional media strategy that appears to have its roots in the production of fiction and entertainment. For example, institutional videos are published at a chronological time compatible with international media agendas. Zelensky’s images with the uppermost number of views are released at the end of the day and also achieve the highest number of ‘likes’. Furthermore, he uses short spoken videos (which we have termed ‘emotional speeches’) to address Ukrainian citizens. At the end of the day, like Franklin D. Roosevelt’s infamous ‘fireside chats’, Zelensky lowers his tone of voice to convey his message of hope and strength to his people whilst looking straight and unwaveringly into the camera. This research adds to the extant literature available on risk and crisis communication.</p
Enhancing output performance and thermoelectric conversion efficiency in thermal regeneration ammonia-based flow battery through a novel W-like flow channel
No full textIn addressing the global challenges of energy efficiency and environmental sustainability, the Thermal Regeneration Ammonia-based Flow Battery (TRAFB) is increasingly gaining attention due to its potential for application in low-grade waste heat recovery. Therefore, this study innovatively introduces a novel W-like flow channel (WFC) with the expectation of enhancing the mass transfer, output performance, and thermoelectric conversion efficiency of the TRAFB. Through visualization and quantitative analysis, the performance of the TRAFB with the WFC is compared with that of the battery with the traditional straight flow channel (SFC) across various aspects, including mass transfer characteristics, reactant concentration characteristics, output performance, discharge behavior, and thermoelectric conversion efficiency. The findings indicate that compared to the SFC, the WFC significantly improves TRAFB performance, particularly under high current density conditions. By adjusting two characteristic parameters of the novel flow channel—the depth and width of the semi-elliptical obstacles—the battery performance can be further enhanced. When both the depth and width are set to 0.8 mm, the peak power density of the battery increases by 57.58% compared to the SFC. Moreover, operating the TRAFB with the WFC configured in this setting at a current density of 300 A/m2 exhibits a 21.11-fold increase in Cu2+ flux, a 7.83-fold increase in effective mass transfer coefficient, a 309.49-fold improvement in reactant uniformity, a 97.78-fold increase in electric capacity, and a 15.95-fold enhancement in thermoelectric conversion efficiency. These findings provide an important theoretical basis and practical guidance for the optimized design and efficient application of TRAFB.</p
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