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On ghostly lives: life, death and the British immigration detention estate
No full textThis research project investigates the role of administrative detention in the UK and its impact on the evolving concept of the human. By engaging with critical theorists such as Sylvia Wynter, Frantz Fanon, Katherine McKittrick, Simone Browne and Achille Mbembe, I examine how immigration laws and policies perpetuate racial differences within the immigration detention estate in Britain. This study addresses crucial questions: How do immigration regulations uphold racial disparities through detention? What are the implications of racial terror (the normalisation of racialised violence) for the politics of the human? How does the popular adage, ‘we did not cross the border, the border crossed us,’ challenge conventional understandings of borders? Why do states increasingly impose restrictions on migrants globally? The research explores the extensive measures used to enforce borders, including walls, fences, surveillance technologies, biometric data collection, prisons, and detention centers, and their connection to the (un)making of the human. I argue that detention serves as a mechanism of power that enforces racialised surveillance and control, perpetuating a hierarchical reordering of humanity often characterised by discrimination and violence. Guided by Puar’s (2017) concept of debilitation, I apply the notion of maiming as a form of state power that operates between biopower (the governance of life) and necropower (the governance of death). I contribute to the field by meditating on what I call ‘maimed life’ which are lives that are ‘derealised’ (Butler, 2020: 33), maintained in a state of ‘injury’ (Mbembe, 2019:75) or ‘deadness’ (Butler, 2020: 33), through practice and discourse. I employ a diverse range of data sources, including ethnographic notes from fieldwork in Calais, interviews with activists, refugees, and asylum seekers, and documents from a public inquiry (witness statements, transcripts, footage, etc.). Through this comprehensive approach, this study aims to elucidate the intricate connections between the practice of detention, racialised surveillance, geographies of domination and the politics of being human in the UK
Colours, giants, and games
Get PDFThis thesis focuses on three independent areas of research. In the initial part, we study the occurrence of monochromatic substructures in coloured combinatorial objects across two different settings. First, we investigate the presence of monochromatic products in arbitrary, random, and randomly perturbed colourings of the integers —varying a classical line of research which originated with Schur and has since drawn considerable attention. Our results mark the first contributions in this new direction and lay the foundation for further work. Next, we determine the exact value of the Ramsey number of the squares of long paths and cycles, expanding the limited class of graphs for which this number is precisely known. In the middle part, we extend and address works and conjectures of earlier authors. First, we resolve a conjecture by Letzter and Snyder on the chromatic number of graphs with large minimum degree and no short odd cycles. Second, we extend the Transference Principle of Conlon and Gowers, thereby paving the way to strengthen and generalise existing counting results in sparse random settings. As an application, we obtain an asymptotically optimal counting version of the KŁR Conjecture. In the final part, we analyse the dynamics that arise when learning agents repeatedly interact in the framework of games. We first consider the case of players with finite recall under various monitoring conditions in repeated games. Here, we establish a Folk Theorem-like result, characterise the set of payoff vectors attainable under these dynamics, and uncover a wide spectrum of possibilities for the emergence of algorithmic collusion. We then investigate best-response dynamics in random potential games, and demonstrate the robustness of this approach across different regimes of payoff correlation
The antecedents and moderators of online privacy disclosure perceptions and behaviours
No full textThis thesis explores antecedents, contextual factors and mechanisms of individual privacy disclosure perceptions, intentions and behaviours in digital environments. The research examines the role of time pressure, engagement format, as well as the impact of sequential privacy disclosure, where individuals disclose information at multiple and connected decision stages. This thesis also aims to explore the role of personality traits (BIG5) in privacy disclosure behaviours. First, results from the large-scale online randomised controlled trial (RCT) experiments (n=2776) indicate that under time pressure, individuals decrease the disclosure of sensitive information, suggesting the presence of a trade-off between speed and privacy. Second, individuals’ willingness to disclose sensitive information is also reduced when engaging with service agents (e.g. Artificial Intelligence (AI)-based, Human or hybrid Human AI teams) compared to non-agent-based engagement formats such as traditional web forms, as demonstrated by an online behavioural experiment (n=3176). This effect remains consistent for one-off and multiple engagement scenarios where sensitive information disclosure occurs. Finally, using the structural equation modelling (SEM) approach, I build a theoretical construct integrating personality traits, privacy concerns, and disclosure behaviours, showing that conscientiousness, agreeableness, and openness elevate privacy concerns that drive privacy behaviours. Taken together, these findings extend the Antecedents-Privacy Concerns-Outcome (APCO) theoretical framework (Smith et al., 2011) by incorporating personality traits as another antecedent and demonstrating new boundary conditions under which individuals disclose sensitive information. They also highlight the importance of evidence-based and informed policymaking in the context of privacy regulation that should focus on the long-term aspects of privacy disclosure behaviours, especially with the steadfast advancement of AI. Furthermore, when building privacy-related user-centric experiences, organisations should focus on building a better understanding of individual characteristics to drive personalisation and strive to find the right balance between solutions that foster innovation, boost trust and reduce perceived risks of data sharing
The trade‑off between faster access and evidentiary certainty in the FDA’s Accelerated Approval of cancer drugs: empirical evidence on patient preferences and regulatory decision‑making
No full textBackground: When approving new drugs, the US Food and Drug Administration (FDA) must balance a trade-off between providing earlier access to new drugs and accepting greater uncertainty about a drug’s clinical benefit. In 1992, the FDA introduced the Accelerated Approval pathway to expedite access to new drugs. While the use of Accelerated Approval has shortened clinical development and approval times as intended, it has also led to greater uncertainty about the clinical benefit of new drugs at approval. Evidence shows that most cancer drugs receiving Accelerated Approval do not help patients with cancer live longer or improve their quality of life – outcomes that matter most to patients. Aims: This thesis aimed to better understand the extent to which individuals are willing to accept greater uncertainty in exchange for faster access to new cancer drugs, and whether factors beyond clinical data supporting approval may influence the FDA’s oversight of cancer drugs receiving Accelerated Approval. Methods: Mixed-methods. Key findings: The first two studies in this thesis find that individuals with experience of cancer may be willing to wait longer for FDA approval in exchange for greater certainty of a drug’s clinical benefit, and that patients are most likely to accept greater uncertainty only when no treatment alternatives exist or when the anticipated benefits are likely to be transformative. The third study finds that empirical evidence in support of claims that clinical or non-clinical factors influence FDA approval decisions is limited. The final study finds that many FDA conversion–withdrawal decisions diverge from mandated post-marketing study outcomes, suggesting the application of case-specific discretion and nuance, while not ruling out the influence of other factors beyond clinical evidence. Conclusion: Findings from this thesis demonstrate that FDA decisions made under conditions of uncertainty may not always reflect patients’ preferences and underscore the complexity of FDA cancer drug approval and post-market oversight
Cash transfers and women’s labour supply: theory and evidence from Brazil
Get PDFWomen’s participation in the labour force has been a powerful driver of economic growth, lifting millions out of poverty. Today, cash transfer programmes have come to dominate government efforts to reduce poverty. Whilst effective at providing short-term relief, these programmes may also undermine long-term poverty reduction by disincentivising labour supply. To study the direction and magnitude of the impact of cash transfers on labour supply, as well as the underlying mechanisms, I measure the effect of an exogenous increase in Brazil’s main transfer programme on the employment of men and women. I find no effect for men, whereas women increase their labour supply by 7.4% over two years. This is driven by mothers with children of pre-school age, for whom the transfer relaxes childcare constraints, enabling them to join the labour force. Exploring regional disparities, I find that the effect is stronger in areas that are poorer, but that have better availability of local public services. I causally estimate complementarities between cash transfers and local public good provision levering discontinuities on the allocation of public funds to Brazil’s 5570 municipalities. I show that this has potentially important fiscal implications for the long-term costs and benefits of cash transfer programmes. Overall, my paper illustrates that there is no trade-off between short-term relief and long-term poverty reduction. Rather, cash transfers encourage women’s labour force participation, particularly when complementary public goods, such as educational facilities, are available
Essays on the economy of 19th century England
Get PDFThe thesis consists of three chapters that examine the economy of England in the 19th century. Chapter 1 studies the impact of the construction of the railroad network on local patenting. Using novel data, I find that, by increasing market access, the railroad caused an increase in local patenting. Chapter 2 studies how the Panic of 1825 affected the local economy. The financial system was subject to strict rules requiring small, local banks to have a working relationship with a London agent bank, and we exploit the sudden financial collapse of these London agent banks to establish how the collapse of a local bank connected to a failed London agent caused an increase in local non-financial firm bankruptcies. Chapter 3 studies how the railroad affected economic growth. I find little evidence that the construction of the network increased local land values or had any impact on local bankruptcies. I provide evidence that this could be due to a creative destruction effect in which the destruction element was particularly strong
Poverty, climate change, and policy design: essays in environmental and development economics
No full textPoverty and climate change are not only two of the most pressing global challenges, but they are also interconnected in ways that can complicate attempts to alleviate either in isolation. Their relationship is evident across multiple dimensions. Climate change exacerbates poverty through rising temperatures and increasingly frequent and severe weather events, the effects of which are disproportionately felt by the world’s poorest communities. Conversely, efforts to alleviate poverty through economic development can contribute to higher emissions and environmental degradation. In the global fight to mitigate the worst effects of climate change, the burden of efforts to reduce emissions will be unevenly distributed, with transitions often disproportionately affecting vulnerable populations. Despite the pressing nature of climate change, the importance of alleviating poverty, and the ways these issues intersect, there remains a relatively small body of work that integrates these topics. This thesis seeks to contribute here, using micro-econometric methods and real-world policies to consider three key ways in which poverty and environmental policy are interconnected. After an introduction in Chapter 1, Chapters 2 and 3 examine how poverty influences the primary impacts of environmental policies, focusing on behavioral barriers and related solutions to facilitate the transition to energy-efficient technologies. Chapter 4 then considers the secondary effects of environmental policies—in particular, their possible impacts on poverty and inequality. Finally, Chapter 5 explores the role of policy in mitigating the adverse effects of climate change amongst the poorest and most vulnerable. Taken together, the findings in the thesis demonstrate some of the diverse ways that poverty and environmental policy can interact. Environmental policy will need to account for these interactions to achieve climate change mitigation, minimize adverse secondary impacts, and support communities vulnerable to climate change. A multifaceted approach, tailored to specific contexts, will be necessary for balancing mitigation, adaptation, and equity in the face of these interconnected challenges
The shadow economy of mobile phones: an ethnography of grassroots entrepreneurship in an urban marketplace in China
No full textBased on fourteen months of ethnographic fieldwork in a mobile phone market in Shenzhen, China, this thesis explores how grassroots migrant merchants operate an extensive business network for the retailing, repairing, and reselling of mobile phones. Their market activities represent a central hub in the global supply and distribution of mobile phones. Merchants rely on their own creativity, autonomous practices, and the careful negotiation of shifting regulatory regimes. To capture the agency of such grassroots entrepreneurship, which entangles formal and informal processes, the thesis develops the concept of the ‘shadow economy’. The analysis begins with the financialisation and privatisation of urban market space, showing how formalisation displaced existing social support networks and exacerbated the precarity of grassroots entrepreneurial labour. It then examines the contested notions of authenticity and trust, particularly in the local practices of supplying and providing shanzhai (copycat) and second-hand mobile phones, and demonstrates how merchants both challenge and are constrained by the dominance of Western brand owners and the state’s regulation of consumer rights. With business opportunities shrinking in a time of economic slowdown, merchants have turned to speculative activities, profiting from arbitrage on the platform-based and extensive logistics networks of mobile phones. These practices result in intensified labour for smaller returns, prompting merchants to navigate their entrepreneurial subjectivity in response to these changes
Engineering of global monetary orders: gold’s role within the Bretton Woods system
Get PDFHow do we explain the role designated for gold within the Bretton Woods system? At the time of the negotiations, economic scholarly opinion was already turning away from gold. It is a puzzle, therefore, that gold was designated a key role in the Bretton Woods system. The Bretton Woods regime could have unfolded in many ways: the system could have been less gold-centric while still complying with US interests. A different approach could have prevented the calamities of the gold standard. Among the proposals, the key currency could even have been bancor, yet fashioned in a way that maintains US ascendancy. Why did we have a gold-centric standard in 1944? This project focuses on the creation of the Bretton Woods system with a focus on gold. It looks at the economic ideas and strategies of two key negotiators, Harry Dexter White and John Maynard Keynes, to emphasize a unipolar monetary world order (White’s plan) versus a multipolar one (Keynes’s plan). It also studies on-the-ground negotiations at the Atlantic City Conference directly preceding the Bretton Woods, and the Bretton Woods Conference itself. I trace the role of gold, bearing in mind agency versus structure – that is, the role played by pivotal individuals and their ideas versus structural disparities and powers between the countries they represent (G. John Ikenberry versus Richard Gardner). I also consider the singular versus multilateral origins of the Bretton Woods (Benn Steil versus Eric Helleiner). This study aims to reconsider the intellectual underpinnings of the Bretton Woods system; it also draws generalizable insights into how monetary systems get designed, and if and how critical agents at these key moments exert agency. Two key questions emerge here. First, why White? Second, why focus on gold? White’s role before and during the negotiations warrants scrutiny. As the Director of Monetary Research, Assistant to the Secretary, and the person in charge of the Bretton Woods drafting and international economic policymaking, White was the most significant individual working at the US Treasury at the time. He was also a member of Secretary of the Treasury Morgenthau’s “9:30 staff”, which consisted of senior officials at the Treasury who briefed Morgenthau daily. While the world was in flux and the opportunity for a change arose, White’s ideas became consequential. Morgenthau stated, “He will be in charge of all foreign affairs for me… I want it in one brain and I want it in Harry Dexter White’s brain” (Skidelsky, 2000). White agreed with Keynes on a number of issues, but the differences in their ideas proved consequential during the construction of the Bretton Woods regime. The Bretton Woods system’s focus on gold is puzzling given the existence of alternatives. For one, the challenges of gold in international economic systems were already understood at the time (Lamoreaux & Shapiro, 2019). Further, some economists suggested breaking the link between gold and the reserve currencies (Lamoreaux & Shapiro, 2019). Successful experiments had already shown that an external standard wasn’t needed to stabilize currencies (Lamoreaux & Shapiro, 2019). For instance, the Tripartite Agreement of 1936 stabilized currencies in relation to one another, while in the sterling area, currencies were stabilized in relation to the pound, meaning that they were “pro-gold-free” arrangements (Eichengreen, 2019). This thesis hence aims to answer why gold was designated such a role in the Bretton Woods system
Essays in empirical asset pricing
No full textThis thesis presents three essays on the determinants of risk premia across currency and equity markets. The first essay studies the macroeconomic foundations of currency risk premia using a dataset spanning a century. It decomposes the predictability of 11 fundamentals into cross-sectional (CS) and Dollar components, finding CS predictability is more robust. Using a Bayesian framework to navigate the resulting ”factor zoo,” the analysis reveals a dense currency Stochastic Discount Factor (SDF) where many fundamentals contribute noisy information. An aggregated Bayesian Model Averaged (BMA) SDF demonstrates superior out-of-sample pricing power over parsimonious models. The second essay investigates the time-series predictive power of the Currency Volatility Risk Premium (VRP). It shows that the VRP term-structure significantly forecasts currency appreciation and excess returns, particularly at longer horizons. This premium is linked to macroeconomic distress, suggesting it serves as compensation for bearing risk during adverse economic conditions. The third essay introduces a novel risk factor in the cross-section of U.S. equities: the ”equity recovery rate,” defined as the fraction of market equity recoverable in bankruptcy. A robust, inverse relationship is documented between this rate and subsequent risk-adjusted returns. This premium is shown to be distinct from compensation for leverage, traditional distress risk, and other well-known factors