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Essays on financial institutions
No full textThis dissertation consists of three empirical studies that examine how disclosure regulation and sustainability-related incentives shape the lending behavior of financial institutions. The first chapter, coauthored with Jacob Ott and Aneesh Raghunandan, examines whether banks’ net-zero proclamations (Net-Zero Banking Alliance participation) lead to shifts in lending behavior. We find that NZBA signatories reallocate lending within brown business groups, increasing loans to clean subsidiaries while cutting loans to the parent and brown subsidiaries, rather than outright divesting. These shifts are not offset by internal reallocations, and NZBA banks reinforce them by charging higher rates to brown subsidiaries than to clean ones. The second chapter, coauthored with Anya Kleymenova and Xi Li, examines the strategic incentives of banks in issuing Sustainability-Linked Loans (SLLs) around the globe. We show that multinational banks, especially dominant players in slowing credit markets, are more likely to introduce SLLs, particularly in economically important foreign markets. Taking leadership roles in SLLs, such as serving as sustainability agents, enables these banks to expand market share by strengthening relationships with existing borrowers and acquiring new clients. Moreover, leading SLLs is associated with future loan growth and higher fee income, highlighting the competitive motives behind sustainability lending. The third paper, which is solo-authored, examines how nonbank loan transparency affects substitution between nonbank and bank credit and, in turn, bank lending. Exploiting California’s Commercial Financing Disclosure Law, I show that standardized APR disclosure increased banks’ share of small business lending, reduced nonbank credit, and increased bank originations. This substitution reflects borrowers shifting away from nonbanks, due to greater sensitivity to loan pricing under standardized disclosure, as well as a contraction in nonbank credit from higher compliance costs. Banks responded by tightening standards, raising markups, and concentrating new lending in counties with higher education, higher numeracy-levels, and lower poverty
Optimisation for prophet inequalities
Full text linkProphet inequalities have been extensively studied within optimal stopping theory, in part for their applicability to many online decision-making processes. In this thesis, we explore the benefits of viewing prophet inequalities as optimisation problems. We present three main results. First, we study the classic single-choice prophet inequality problem through a resource augmentation lens. In this setting, the algorithm faces an additional number of online independent and identically distributed (i.i.d.) bidders compared to the prophet. The optimal algorithm has a simple description as it sets carefully chosen thresholds T(j) for each incoming bidder j and accept a given value from the distribution if and only if it surpasses T(j). Our goal is to analyse the competition complexity, which relates to the number of extra resources required in order to approximate the benchmark by a given factor. Next, we generalise to arbitrary, independent distributions. Now, the metric asks for the smallest k such that the expected value of the online algorithm on k copies of the original instance is at least a (1−ε)-approximation to the expected offline optimum on a single copy. We show that block threshold algorithms, which set one threshold per copy, are optimal and give a tight bound of k = Θ(log(log1/ε)). This shows that block threshold algorithms approach the offline optimum doubly-exponentially fast. For single threshold algorithms, which set the same threshold throughout, we give a tight bound of k = Θ(log(1/ε)) establishing an exponential gap between block and single threshold algorithms. Finally, we move on to the i.i.d. k-selection prophet inequality problem, which is a different extension of the single choice setting in the case of i.i.d. distributions. At each time step, a decision is made to accept or reject the value, under the constraint of accepting at most k in total. Our work proposes an infinite-dimensional linear programming formulation that fully characterises the worst-case tight approximation ratio of the k-selection prophet inequality problem, complementing the recent semiinfinite linear programming general approach by Jiang et al. [EC 2023]. Notably, we introduce a nonlinear system of differential equations that generalises Hill and Kertz’s equation. For small k, we observe that this approach yields the best approximation ratios to date
Essays in environmental economics and development economics
Full text linkThis thesis examines how climate-related risks and responses ranging from natural disasters to green transition and public mobilization, shape economic behavior, perceptions, and political outcomes. It highlights how climate risks and social responses shape both market outcomes and politics, with implications for designing effective climate policy. The first chapter examines the economic effects of flooding in Indonesia, focusing on its impact on firm behavior and regional economic variables. Using granular firm-level data and spatial data on historical floods, I estimate the short-run effects of flood events and find that more severe floods significantly reduce aggregate output, hinder business formation, and erode firm-level capital. A model of firm entry under climate risk reveals that these effects are largely driven by perceived flood risk, thereby emphasizing the anticipatory behavior of firms and the importance of flood mitigation infrastructure, such as flood defenses. The second chapter addresses the environmental implications of coal-fired power plants. Combining geocoded survey data from 51 countries with plant-level information, we document that individuals living within 40 km of coal plants are systematically more dissatisfied with local air quality. Employing equivalent variation measure, we show that replacing coal plants with renewable technology is feasible even if the gains from improved air quality are only considered in the benefits calculations. The third chapter explores the political consequences of climate-related protests. Analyzing large-scale protests, such as the Fridays for Future, we find that protests significantly increase climate awareness in the short run, as evidenced by spikes in Google search trends and media coverage. These shifts also translate into increased electoral support for Green parties in Europe and influence political discourse within the UK Parliament
The application of judicial review doctrines to automated administration in the United Kingdom
No full textThis thesis evaluates the application of English doctrines of judicial review to uses of automation and machine learning in administrative decision-making. The thesis undertakes a close analysis of five doctrines of judicial review that are likely to be engaged by the use of automation and machine learning technologies in government. These doctrines are: reviewability of decisions, the Carltona doctrine, fettering of a discretion, irrelevant considerations and the duty to give reasons. The significant contribution of this thesis is that to date there has not been a granular and sustained treatment of how the grounds of review might apply to automated decision-making in the UK state. This thesis seeks to fill this gap in the literature and contribute to knowledge through an extended examination of the five selected grounds of review. The thesis answers the question: how will these doctrines in their current forms likely apply to uses of automation and machine learning in government? The thesis seeks to examine to what extent these doctrines are capable of meeting their original objectives in an environment of changing administrative behaviour due to uses of automation and machine learning. The thesis argues that some of the grounds of review examined provide a doctrinal foundation which can be flexibly applied to a new automated context and can exercise significant restrictions and constraints over unfair or unlawful uses of automated decision-making in government. Other doctrines demonstrate a more significant clash between what the law currently requires from a decision-maker and whether the technology can satisfy those requirements. By examining these grounds of review in detail I seek to shed a light on the aspects of judicial review’s doctrinal architecture that are and are not readily applicable to uses of automation and machine learning. Through this analysis I lay the foundation for future conversations and research about which areas of review require evolution or where further legal regulation of automation and machine learning is required to respond to this new administrative context
The mediation practices of Peruvian Amazonian indigenous organisations
No full textThis thesis examines the mediation practices of indigenous organisations in the Peruvian Amazon, combining social movement theory with a media and communication approach. While it started as an open examination of the power dynamics shaping indigenous organisations’ mediation practices, this thesis builds on the concept of the ‘mediation opportunity structure’ (Cammaerts, 2018), which offers a holistic framework to analyse the constraints and opportunities shaping social movements’ mediation practices. Aiming to contribute to the literature on mediation and social movements, and indigenous social movements, it reflects on the interplay between political opportunities and constraints and indigenous organisations’ mediation practices. I examine how, in the Peruvian political context, where indigenous peoples’ rights are recognised and yet continually neglected, Amazonian indigenous organisations have adopted a reformist approach to resistance and developed complex mediation logics in relation to the non-indigenous and indigenous publics they communicate with. Moreover, the study shows that the political opportunity structure of Peruvian Amazonian indigenous organisations strongly shapes their mediation practices, from their production of media content to their appropriations of media to diffuse their content, their interactions with journalists, and, finally, the reception of their content by state actors. Overall, studying indigenous organisations’ mediation practices reshapes the conceptual framework of the Circuit of Protest and the mediation opportunity structure (Cammaerts, 2018), pointing out, for example, the relational aspect of indigenous organisations’ network and the importance of their in-person communication practices, the presence of an audience opportunity structure at the level of their communication with their communities, or of an economic opportunity strongly structuring their practices. Empirically, this thesis draws on twenty-four interviews with indigenous organisations, journalists, NGO professionals, and experts, as well as a content analysis of 223 Facebook posts produced by three Peruvian indigenous organisations
The politics of ethical self-becoming: an ethnographic study of South Asian women’s (re)positioning in broken transnational marriages in the United Kingdom
Full text linkThis thesis draws on 18 months of person-centred, ethnographic fieldwork and ongoing contact exploring broken transnational marriages, domestic abuse and destitution experienced by South Asian brides migrating to the United Kingdom without natal family in proximity. It interrogates the process of their ethical self-becoming as they persevere and “keep going” through several challenging life events. To investigate self-becoming, I developed “Ethical (Re)positioning” – an analytical tool with a cartographic approach to examine intertwining forces shaping self-becoming over time and space. It interrogates how women navigate interweaving dynamics of familial, legal, social and medical structures, interpersonal relationships, thoughts, and emotions in gendered migration. “Ethical (Re)positioning” illuminates migrant brides’ challenging (re)positions as they await delayed spousal visas, experience domestic abuse, face deportation, fight for rights to UK residency, struggle with poor language and digital skills, and achieve economic independence. It emphasises their predicaments, concerns, doubts, fears and “multiple ethical dilemmas” in and across their (re)positions. It reveals their “carceral escapes” whereby escaping one challenging (re)position often leads to new controlling social, legal, familial, or economic structures. This thesis argues that ethical self-becoming is a shifting, non-linear, reflective and reactionary process across (re)positions, unfolding within life challenges and devotional practices, with variable outcomes, where joy, faith, hope, despair, courage, and forbearance are emotions and practices. This thesis challenges the assumption of supportive kin and community networks within South Asian transnational marriages. It refines theories of Muslim subjectivity within the anthropology of Islam, which often centre on ethical self-cultivation shaped through formalised practices. It revises the concept of “moral breakdown” in the anthropology of ethics, which overlooks people’s experiences of “multiple ethical dilemmas” across complex ethical (re)positions, where returning to an unreflective state of everyday moral dispositions is rare. This thesis offers a novel analytical approach to studying gender, migration, kinship, and Muslim female subjectivity
Historical transportation systems and economic geography in China across seven millennia
Full text linkThe evolution of transportation networks and their relationship with urban development is critical to understanding the rise of civilizations. This thesis investigates this dynamic through three interconnected studies, focusing on China’s historical context. First, I reconstruct the transportation network of late imperial China using a GIS-based approach, estimating historical transportation speeds and costs, and compare it with England. Second, I analyze how natural endowments influenced the spatial distribution of ancient settlements and historical cities, revealing patterns of human interaction with their environment over time. Third, I explore how institutional contexts shaped the value of natural endowments for city locations across dynastic cycles. In paper two and paper three, my findings demonstrate that economic activities were initially concentrated in areas with convenient road access, but this relationship weakened approximately 4,500 years ago during a major global climatic event (Holocene Event 3). This disruption, likely driven by a climate shock triggering a Malthusian trap, persisted for nearly a millennium before being resolved through the formation of China’s first territorial state, aligning with the circumscription hypothesis. Following China’s unification, the relationship between city locations and natural endowments fluctuated with dynastic cycles, driven by governance strategies and taxation structures. This research contributes to three key areas of scholarship. First, it offers new insights into the Great Divergence by demonstrating that transportation conditions in late imperial Yangtze China were comparable to those in England until 1700, when England experienced a transformative transportation revolution that did not occur in China. Second, it advances economic geography by providing novel empirical evidence on how institutional settings mediate the value of natural endowments for city locations. Finally, it uncovers a previously undocumented historical pattern linking ancient settlement locations to road accessibility, informed by a newly developed terrain based road suitability index based on Digital Elevation Model data and data from the China Archaeological Database (CADB) Project
Essays on growth and fiscal policy
Full text linkThis thesis consists of one essay on economic growth and human capital, and two essays on local fiscal policy. In Chapter 1, I raise and test the hypothesis that the effect of human capital on economic growth depends crucially on the concentration of high-skilled labor across firms. First, I causally estimate that new colleges had a positive impact on local economic growth in municipalities with lower concentration of high-skilled labor, but a negative effect in municipalities with higher skill concentration. Second, I isolate the causal effect of changes in local high-skilled labor concentration on local growth. Third, I develop and estimate an endogenous growth model, which quantitatively matches the preceding results and which I use to assess policy counterfactuals. In Chapter 2, I show evidence of novel heterogeneity in local fiscal multipliers. First, I present evidence from the UK of an average local multiplier of 1.69 and 1.71 for services and capital spending, respectively. There are, however, significant inter-council differences in multiplier estimates which are unrelated to variation in local MPCs. I rationalize my results with a model of heterogeneous labor and productivity shocks that impose a psychological toll on workers’ cognitive load capacity. Results show potential gains from removing fiscal misallocation between councils. In Chapter 3, we examine the short-run effects of education expenditures on local income and employment. We estimate fiscal multipliers using city-level exposure to the US Federal Pell Grant Program. An increase in grants by 1 percent of a city’s income raises local income by 2.8% and local employment by 1.9% over the next two years. The higher multiplier is partly driven by Pell grants enabling students to take up student loans. Multipliers are also higher during recessions than in expansions, suggesting that Pell grants can be an effective tool for countercyclical policy
The state and its competitors in African(a) political thought
No full textIn this dissertation I argue that the core of the anticolonial project of the postcolonial state was to secure dignity for its people and that the normative yardstick for its success or failure should be whether it has secured such dignity. While maintaining the salient critiques of state failure literature, especially the critiques of its racist and colonial foundations, I argue that we should nonetheless have criteria for declaring a postcolonial polity failed, and it is these criteria I develop in the thesis. I also argue that state failure can and sometimes should be succeeded by the adoption of alternatives to the state, including anarchic alternatives. Given the record of the state in relation to the realisation of dignity, I argue that anticolonial utopia may in fact only be realisable at a distance from the state. To make this argument, I revisit the twentieth century debates that surrounded the coming-into-being of the postcolonial state forms, the record of the state especially in East Africa, and the alternative forms of polity that coexisted with and even challenged the state—what I call the state’s competitors
Collaborative research in dementia care and support
No full textOver the past two decades, the involvement of people with dementia in applied health and care research has increasingly shifted towards more equitable, inclusive, and collaborative approaches. This work reflects on an innovative collaborative research initiative conducted in dementia care in a local health and care system in England (2015-2021). Blending Participatory Action Research and co-creation, it involved local stakeholders, including people living with dementia, their family carers, and health and care professionals, as active research partners while simultaneously driving improvements in the local dementia care system. The initiative, which was overseen by the English research ethics policy framework, was organised in three phases and employed multiple research methods. In the diagnostic phase the information need was identified as prevalent, pervasive, and often unmet among people with dementia and their families and became the focus of the improvement phase. In the improvement phase local stakeholders designed an intervention to support the information behaviour of people with dementia and their carers. The evaluation phase that followed was conducted as a process evaluation focused on one implementation arm of the designed intervention. Drawing on empirical data collected during the initiative, this work makes three contributions. First, it advances the theoretical understanding of information behaviour (a set of complex activities that are relational, emotionally charged, contextually embedded) and shows its affordance to inform health and care information policy and practice. Second, it critically examines the experience of conducting collaborative research in the complex policy landscape of dementia care, identifying the factors that shaped the initiative’s trajectory. Lastly, it reflects on the tension between the methodological framework of collaborative research and the requirements of the research ethics system that was observed throughout the co-creation initiative, offering recommendations to better align the research ethics system with the principles and practices of collaborative research