62880 research outputs found
Sort by
High-impact low-likelihood climate scenarios for the UK: scenario report
No full textThis report presents two sets of high-impact low-likelihood (HILL) climate scenarios for the UK. The scenarios are designed to supplement and contextualise the UKCP18 climate projections, and to meet requirements of users for plausible high-end or worst-case climate scenarios.
One of the sets of scenarios – transient scenarios - describe the evolution of change in climate to 2100. This set consists of six plausible and distinctive narrative storylines describing qualitatively different potential drivers of high-impact, low-likelihood changes in UK climate and sea level. The storylines are designed to describe changes outside the extreme range conventionally assumed, taken here to be either a world reaching an increase of 4oC above pre-industrial levels by 2100 or one where changes in climate are outside the range as represented by the majority of current climate models. Such changes could occur because the forcings of climate change are outside the conventional range, or because the large-scale climate system response is outside the range projected by most current climate models. The scenarios are similar in principle to conventional climate change scenarios. Each is presented as a single quantification. Two (enhanced global warming and enhanced sea level rise) are defined as standalone scenarios, and the other four are presented as perturbations to be applied to UKCP18 climate projections from any strand with any emissions scenario. The transient scenarios provide a high-level picture of how future UK climate could be different to that implied by conventional UKCP18 climate projections. They can be applied individually or in combination.
The second set consists of a number of extreme anomaly scenarios representing plausible extreme monthly and seasonal temperature, rainfall and windspeed anomalies, both individually and in combination. These scenarios are designed to be applied to a long-term climate mean to represent an individual month or season, or sequence of months. They can be applied to conventional climate projections or the high-impact low-likelihood transient scenarios developed here to define plausible extreme months or seasons. Each is associated with a ‘backstory’ describing plausible circulation patterns (such as jet stream position) that generate the anomalous extremes. This set of scenarios allows an assessment of risks from plausible extreme months and seasons. They are not intended to replace sector-specific worst case event scenarios.
Both the transient and extreme anomaly scenarios are developed through a combination of theory, historical experience, expert judgment and the interpretation of climate model output, including UKCP18 products. The scenarios are not assigned quantitative likelihoods, but their plausibility is characterised in terms of understanding of (i) the drivers of the scenario (forcing or large-scale response) and (ii) the consequences of the scenario for the UK if it were to occur.
The narrative storylines and backstories provide a framework for further elaboration, for example to add specific detail relevant to a user or to develop narrative descriptions of potential consequences. The quantitative characterisations of the scenarios presented here can be used in quantitative risk assessments but are not to be interpreted too literally. They can be updated or supplemented within the framework presented here as new information becomes available.
This report describes the transient and extreme anomaly scenarios in Parts A and B respectively. A separate technical report outlines the use and interpretation of high-impact low-likelihood climate scenarios in the UK, describes the framework developed for constructing the scenarios, and summarises the evidence used to construct them.
The transient and extreme anomaly scenarios describe plausible high-impact low-likelihood changes in average temperature, rainfall and windspeed (and sea level for the transient scenarios). Plausible changes in other climate variables (such as humidity) can be inferred if necessary from the narrative storylines
Seeing through an ant's eyes: do entomopathogenic fungi extend their cognition to their hosts?
Get PDFPost-cognitivist approaches recognize cognition as a phenomenon that involves not just brains but all the sensorimotor apparatus of organisms. This means that brains are not always required for the emergence of cognition and that every organism can, in principle, be cognitive, unlocking a theoretical framework to explain the complex adaptive behavior of even non-neural organisms. This construct blurs the boundaries of cognitive processes, leading to what is known as the Extended Cognition thesis, where objects in the environment could become integral parts of an individual's cognitive system. Here, we explore the possibility that some species of entomopathogenic fungi in the families Cordycipitaceae, Ophiocordycipitaceae, and Clavicipitaceae could extend their cognition to the insects and other arthropods they infect. In this parasitism, the fungus takes possession of the sensorimotor apparatus of its host and coerces it to find the best places for fungal dispersal. We examine case studies where Ophiocordyceps spp. fungi induce ants to seek bright places in the forest. In this case, the fungus may be using the ant's sensorial and motoric apparatus to locate the places appropriate for its reproduction. This could be a remarkable example of extended cognition of a non-neural organism through a neural organism. However, empirical testing using a solid demarcating criterion is required to confirm this hypothesis
Producing BDSM content on porn platforms: a day in the life of Countess Diamond
Get PDFThis paper explores the case of Countess Diamond, a BDSM adult content creator who wears the hats of both producer and performer within the gig economy where adult content creators distribute pornographic material via the mediation of porn platforms. While Countess Diamond is self-employed, her business is very unstable due to the arbitrary changes made by porn platforms over what content they are willing to host and sell. The platforms control and monitor core aspects of Countess Diamond’s work reality placing her in a limbo where she is unsure of whether her work will be sold to clients at her own rate. I argue that, although adult content creators are self-employed and might wish to remain so, they could operate in a more stable working environment and invest more in their business if given labour rights as workers for the porn platforms
How good is my drought index? Evaluating predictability and ability to estimate impacts across Europe
Get PDFIdentifying drought indices that effectively predict future drought impacts remains a critical challenge in seasonal forecasting, as these indices provide the necessary actionable information that enables stakeholders to better anticipate and respond to drought-related challenges. This study evaluates how drought indices balance forecast skill and relevance for estimating impacts across Europe. Using ECMWF SEAS5 seasonal predictions and ERA5 reanalysis as benchmarks, we assessed the predictability skill of drought indices over various accumulation periods and their relevance in estimating drought impacts across Europe, with the aim of enhancing impact-based forecasting (IbF). To evaluate these relationships, we built upon the findings from a study that utilized drought impact data from the European Drought Impact Report Inventory (EDII) and employed random forest (RF) models to evaluate the significance of various drought indices in predicting sector-specific impacts. Our findings reveal higher predictability in Northern and Southern Europe, particularly during winter and summer, with some regions showing extended predictability up to six months, depending on the season. Focusing on case studies in the UK and Germany, our results highlight regions and seasons where accurate impact predictions are possible. In both countries, high impact predictability was found up to six months ahead, with sectors such as Agriculture, Water Supply, and Tourism in the UK, and Agriculture and Water Transportation in Germany, depending on the region and season. This analysis represents a significant step forward in identifying the most suitable drought indices for predicting impacts across Europe. Our approach not only introduces a new method for evaluating the relationship between drought indices and impacts, but also addresses the challenge of selecting indices for estimating impacts. This framework advances the development of operational impact-based drought forecasting systems for Europe
No evidence for Peto’s paradox in terrestrial vertebrates
Get PDFLarger, longer-lived species are expected to have a higher cancer prevalence compared to
smaller, shorter-lived species owing to the greater number of cell divisions that occur during
their lifespan. Yet, to date, no evidence has been found to support this expectation, and
no association has been found between cancer prevalence and body size across species—a
phenomenon known as Peto’s paradox. Specifically, while anticancer mechanisms have been
identified for individual species, wider phylogenetic evidence has remained elusive. Here,
we show that there is no evidence for Peto’s paradox across amphibians, birds, mammals,
and squamate reptiles: Larger species do in fact have a higher cancer prevalence compared
to smaller species. Moreover, we demonstrate that the accumulation of repeated instances
of accelerated body size evolution in mammals and birds is associated with a reduction in
the prevalence of neoplasia and malignancy, suggesting that increased rates of body size
evolution are associated with the evolution of improved cellular growth control. These
results represent empirical evidence showing that larger body size is related to higher
cancer prevalence, thus rejecting Peto’s paradox, and demonstrating the importance of
heterogenous routes of body size evolution in shaping anticancer defenses
Effect of processing on cow’s milk protein microstructure and peptide profile released after in vitro gastrointestinal digestion
Get PDFCow’s milk is an important part of the human diet, primarily due to its high nutritional content, particularly proteins and fats. Milk processing enhances safety while modifying composition and structure, influencing bioactive peptide release, which impacts protein quality, digestion, and allergenicity. Recently, filtered milk, which undergoes pasteurisation and microfiltration, offering a longer shelf life than pasteurised milk has become available in UK supermarkets. This study aimed to evaluate the effect of microfiltration on the protein structure of cow’s milk compared to pasteurisation and analysis of the peptide profile released after the in vitro gastrointestinal digestion of commercially available semi-skimmed filtered and pasteurised cow’s milk. Dynamic Light Scattering analysis revealed that the Z-average particle size of filtered milk was significantly (p < 0.05) larger than that of pasteurised milk across all brands. Additionally, filtered milk exhibited a significantly (p < 0.05) lower free thiol concentration compared to pasteurised milk, indicating structural modifications in proteins. Confocal Laser Scanning Microscopy (CLSM) further highlighted heterogeneities in fat and protein distribution, with filtered milk samples showing increased interactions between fat globules and proteins. After gastrointestinal digestion, the number of peptides released from filtered milk exceeded, by an average of 5 %, that of peptides released from pasteurised milk. The results provide new in-sights into the potential impact of microfiltration on milk microstructure. Further investigations using advanced analytical techniques are needed to assess the implications of these changes on protein bioavailability and human health
The local nature of housing markets: new evidence
No full textThis research examines whether much of the variation in house price changes is mainly driven by local or national factors. Employing a novel data containing both capital appreciation and income component in the U.S. Metropolitan Statistical Areas, results show that macroeconomic factors, absorbed by time fixed effects, account for 59% of the variation in capital gains and 4% of the variation in rental yields. Overall, this empirical study is an important complement to the prior literature assuming that the nature of housing markets is primarily local, particularly evidenced in the cross-sectional income returns. The results provide implications for balanced national development and portfolio diversification strategy
Evaluation of O3, H2O, CO and NOy climatologies simulated by four global models in the upper troposphere–lower stratosphere with the IAGOS measurements
Get PDFAssessing global models in the upper troposphere (UT) and in the lowermost stratosphere (LS) is an important step towards
a better understanding of the chemical composition near the tropopause. For this purpose, the current study focuses on an evaluation of long-term simulations from four chemistry-climate/transport models, based on the In-service Aircraft for a Global Observing System (IAGOS) measurements. Most simulations span over the 1995–2017 period, and follow a common protocol among the models. The assessment focuses on climatological averages of ozone (O3), water vapour (H2O), carbon monoxide (CO), and reactive nitrogen (NOy). In the extra-tropics, the models reproduce the seasonality of ozone, H2O, and NOy in both UT and LS, but none of them reproduces CO springtime maximum in the UT. Tropospheric tracers (CO, H2O) tend to be underestimated, consistently with an overestimation of cross-tropopause exchanges. Most models systematically overestimate ozone in the UT, and nitrogen oxides (NOx) background appears as the main contributor to ozone variability across the models. The partitioning between NOy species changes drastically across the models, and acts as a source of uncertainty on NOx mixing ratio and on its impacts on atmospheric composition. However, we highlight some well-reproduced geographical variations, as the ITCZ seasonal shifts above Africa, or extratropical ozone (H2O) in the LS (UT) correlated with the observations. These features are encouraging regarding the simulated dynamics in both layers. The current study confirms the importance of separating the UT and the LS with a dynamical tracer for model results evaluation, and for model intercomparisons