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Adapting ensemble‐calibration techniques to probabilistic solar‐wind forecasting
Get PDFSolar-wind forecasting is critical for predicting events which can affect Earth's technological systems. Typically, forecasts combine coronal model outputs with heliospheric models to predict near-Earth conditions. Ensemble forecasting generates sets of outputs to create probabilistic forecasts which quantify forecast uncertainty, vital for reliable/actionable forecasts. We adapt meteorological methods to create a calibrated solar-wind ensemble and probabilistic forecast for ambient solar wind, a prerequisite for accurate coronal mass ejection (CME) forecasting. Calibration is achieved by adjusting ensemble inputs/outputs to align the ensemble spread with observed event frequencies. We produce hindcasts in near-Earth space using coronal-model output over Solar Cycle 24, as input to Heliospheric Upwind eXtrapolation with time dependence (HUXt) solar-wind model. Making spatial perturbations to the coronal model output at 0.1 AU, we produce ensembles of inner-boundary conditions for HUXt, evaluating how forecast accuracy was impacted by the scales of perturbations applied. We found optimal spatial perturbations described by Gaussian distributions with variances of 20° latitude and 10° longitude; these might represent spatial uncertainty within the coronal model. This produced probabilistic forecasts better matching observed frequencies. Calibration improved forecast reliability, reducing the Brier score by 9% and forecast decisiveness increasing AUC ROC score by 2.5%. Improvements were subtle but systematic. Additionally, we explored statistical post-processing to correct over-confidence bias, improving forecast actionability. However, this method, applied post-run, does not affect the solar-wind state used to propagate CMEs. This work represents the first formal calibration of solar-wind ensembles, laying groundwork for comprehensive forecasting systems like a calibrated multi-model ensemble
Climate extremes and risks: links between climate science and decision-making
Get PDFThe World Climate Research Programme (WCRP) envisions a future where actionable climate information is universally accessible, supporting decision makers in preparing for and responding to climate change. In this perspective, we advocate for enhancing links between climate science and decision-making through a better and more decision-relevant understanding of climate impacts. The proposed framework comprises three pillars: climate science, impact science, and decision-making, focusing on generating seamless climate information from sub-seasonal, seasonal, decadal to century timescales informed by observed climate events and their impacts. The link between climate science and decision-making has strengthened in recent years, partly owing to undeniable impacts arising from disastrous weather extremes. Enhancing decision-relevant understanding involves utilizing lessons from past extreme events and implementing impact-based early warning systems to improve resilience. Integrated risk assessment and management require a comprehensive approach that encompasses good knowledge about possible impacts, hazard identification, monitoring, and communication of risks while acknowledging uncertainties inherent in climate predictions and projections, but not letting the uncertainty lead to decision paralysis. The importance of data accessibility, especially in the Global South, underscores the need for better coordination and resource allocation. Strategic frameworks should aim to enhance impact-related and open-access climate services around the world. Continuous improvements in predictive modeling and observational data are critical, as is ensuring that climate science remains relevant to decision makers locally and globally. Ultimately, fostering stronger collaborations and dedicated investments to process and tailor climate data will enhance societal preparedness, enabling communities to navigate the complexities of a changing climate effectively
Peptide-purified anti-N-methyl-D-aspartate Receptor (NMDAR) autoantibodies have inhibitory effect on long-term synaptic plasticity
Get PDFBackground/Objectives: Recent studies, typically using patient cerebrospinal fluid (CSF), have suggested that different autoantibodies (Aabs) acting on their respective receptors, may underlie neuropsychiatric disorders. The GluN1 (NR1) subunit of the N-methyl-D-aspartate receptor (NM- DAR) has been identified as a target of anti-NMDAR Aabs in a number of central nervous system (CNS) diseases, including encephalitis and autoimmune epilepsy. However, the role or the nature of Aabs responsible for effects on neuronal excitability and synaptic plasticity is yet to be established fully. Methods: Peptide immunisation was used to generate Aabs against selected specific GluN1 extracellular sequences based on patient-derived anti-NMDAR Aabs that have been shown to bind to specific regions within the GluN1 subunit. ‘Protein A’ purification was used to obtain the total IgG, and further peptide purification was used to obtain a greater percentage of NMDAR-target specific IgG Aabs. The binding and specificity of these anti-NMDAR Aabs were determined using a range of methodologies including enzyme-linked immunosorbent assays, immunocytochemistry and immunoblotting. Functional effects were determined using different in vitro electrophysiology techniques: two-electrode voltage-clamps in Xenopus oocytes and measures of long-term potentiation (LTP) in ex vivo hippocampal brain slices using multi-electrode arrays (MEAs). Results: We show that anti-NMDAR Aabs generated from peptide immunisation had specificity for GluN1 immunisation peptides as well as target-specific binding to the native protein. Anti-NMDAR Aabs had no clear effect on isolated NMDARs in an oocyte expression system. However, peptide-purified anti-NMDAR Aabs prevented the induction of LTP at Schaffer collateral-CA1 synapses in ex vivo brain slices, consistent with causing synaptic NMDAR hypofunction at a network level. Conclusions: This work provides a solid basis to address outstanding questions regarding anti-NMDAR Aab mechanisms of action and, potentially, the development of therapies against CNS diseases
Multi-habitat landscapes are more diverse and stable with improved function
Get PDFConservation, restoration and land management are increasingly implemented at landscape scales1,2. However, because species interaction data are typically habitat- and/or guild-specific, exactly how those interactions connect habitats and affect the stability and function of communities at landscape scales remains poorly understood. We combine multi-guild species interaction data (plant–pollinator and three plant–herbivore–parasitoid communities, collected from landscapes with one, two or three habitats), a field experiment and a modelling approach to show that multi-habitat landscapes support higher species and interaction evenness, more complementary species interactions and more consistent robustness to species loss. These emergent network properties drive improved pollination success in landscapes with more habitats and are not explained by simply summing component habitat webs. Linking landscape composition, through community structure, to ecosystem function, highlights mechanisms by which several contiguous habitats can support landscape-scale ecosystem services
Poetic miscellanies in manuscript and print
No full textThe term ‘miscellany’ slowly and unevenly came into usage across the seventeenth and eighteenth centuries in its modern sense to refer to a book compiled of literary compositions of various kinds and by multiple authors. Looking across early modern miscellanies, it is noticeable that there was no fixed formula or structure in either manuscript or print. Instead, miscellanies are distinguished by an instructive diversity of practice, whether in relation to organising principles, attribution of authorship, or skill. Manuscript verse miscellanies flourished alongside printed collections in the seventeenth century and were produced at universities, the Inns of Court, and in households, both elite and non-elite. Although the history of miscellany production is not evolutionary, progressing incrementally towards stability as a class of books, looking across the seventeenth century, it is possible to see shifts in how miscellanies are framed, the types of poetry they collect, practices of attribution, and how readerships are imagined
Novel indices reveal that pollinator exposure to pesticides varies across biological compartments and crop surroundings
Get PDFDeclines in insect pollinators have been linked to a range of causative factors such as disease, loss of habitats, the quality and availability of food, and exposure to pesticides. Here, we analysed an extensive dataset generated from pesticide screening of foraging insects, pollen-nectar stores/beebread, pollen and ingested nectar across three species of bees collected at 128 European sites set in two types of crop. In this paper, we aimed to (i) derive a new index to summarise key aspects of complex pesticide exposure data and (ii) understand the links between pesticide exposures depicted by the different matrices, bee species and apple orchards versus oilseed rape crops. We found that summary indices were highly correlated with the number of pesticides detected in the related matrix but not with which pesticides were present. Matrices collected from apple orchards generally contained a higher number of pesticides (7.6 pesticides per site) than matrices from sites collected from oilseed rape crops (3.5 pesticides), with fungicides being highly represented in apple crops. A greater number of pesticides were found in pollen-nectar stores/beebread and pollen matrices compared with nectar and bee body matrices. Our results show that for a complete assessment of pollinator pesticide exposure, it is necessary to consider several different exposure routes and multiple species of bees across different agricultural systems
Genome-wide association study identified BnaPAP17 genes involved in exogenous ATP utilization and regulating phosphorous content in Brassica napus
Get PDFDeficiency of available phosphorus (P) in soil has become an important limiting factor for yield and quality in oilseed rape (Brassica napus). In many soils, organic P (Po) is the main component of the soil P pool. Po must be hydrolyzed to inorganic P (Pi) through acid Phosphatase (APases), and then taken up by plants. However, root-secreted APases (SAP) activity, as a quantitative trait, plays an important role in soil Po utilization; those genetic loci are not clear in B. napus. In this study, we performed a genome-wide association study for SAP activity under Pi-deficiency using a panel of 350 accessions of B. napus and more than 4.5 million polymorphic single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs). Thirty-five significant SNPs associated with SAP activity were identified. BnaA01.PAP17 (BnaA01g27810D) was a candidate gene underlying lead SNP (ChrA01_19576615). We experimentally verified that both BnaA01.PAP17 and its three homologous genes had similar expression pattern in response to Pi-deficiency. The dynamic changes in BnaPAP17s expression level were opposite to those of Pi concentration in both roots and leaves, suggesting their potential utility as Pi marker genes in B. napus. Transient expression of BnaPAP17s in tobacco leaves proved that BnaPAP17s were located in the apoplast as secreted APases. The overexpression of BnaPAP17s enhanced SAP activity in response to Pi-deficiency and resulting in increased P content in plants when ATP was supplied as the sole P resource. Taken together, these results suggest that BnaPAP17s contributed to SAP activity, thus having a function in extracellular Po utilization in B. napus
Did home farms pay? The performance of the Stratfield Saye estate home farm and its local peers in the early twentieth century
No full textWhile the role of the home farm on great agricultural estates has been recognized by historians, few
have examined it in especial detail. Surviving records for the home farm at the Duke of Wellington’s
Stratfield Saye estate in Hampshire reveal that it went through a lengthy period of renewal and
redirection in the wake of the agricultural depression of the late nineteenth century, shifting away
from dependence on arable farming to focus on livestock breeding. A financially successful period was
disrupted by the Great War and the need to meet Government regulations for increased arable output.
It weathered the post-war financial slump by reinventing itself as a dairy producer. These changes,
overseen by an experienced and innovative land agent, enabled home farm to sustain itself as a farming
business, helped by other sources of income from letting grazing rights and haulage services. During
the inter war period it performed better in financial terms than home farms on nearby estates, where
not all survived as estate businesses
Practical application of real-time sub-seasonal monsoon onset forecasting and monitoring for decision-making
Get PDFSkilful monsoon onset forecasts are highly sought after in West Africa, due to the importance of monsoon onset for supporting agriculture, disease prevalence and energy provision. With the sub-seasonal timescale bridging the gap between weather and seasonal forecasts, sub-seasonal forecasts have the potential to provide useful decision-making information about the onset of the monsoon rainfall. This study explores sub-seasonal monsoon onset forecasts over Ghana using the European Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecasting (ECMWF) operational ensemble prediction systems. Three commonly used methods for defining monsoon onset are compared, and the benefits, challenges, and potential of real-time, sub-seasonal onset forecasting using these methods are examined. Monsoon onset forecasting at sub-seasonal timescales, and associated decision-making with shorter-term information can be challenging due to the typically single occurrence of rainfall onset within a season. Sub-seasonal forecasts of monsoon onset are shown to be particularly useful for confirming onset occurrence, at least 1–2 weeks earlier than when observations are used. Earlier confirmation of monsoon onset provided by sub-seasonal forecasts, has the potential for earlier decision-making and action that would positively impact sectors such as agriculture
