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Three essays on residential mortgage defaults, loan modifications and post-default outcomes
Get PDFResidential mortgages represent a crucial segment within the financial and lending industry across major economies. Their significance stems primarily from the market’s
size, a result of the combination of substantial loan amounts and widespread presence
in the consumer credit sector. Consequently, residential mortgages constitute a significant proportion of the assets managed by financial institutions. In addition, this
type of loans is central to numerous policy and governmental initiatives, reflecting the
importance of the underlying collateral for a substantial number of citizens in most
developed countries. Lastly, given their pivotal role, residential mortgages have been
at the heart of various crises over the years and continue to be closely monitored due
to their critical importance in contributing to overall financial stability.
A substantial corpus of academic literature emerged following the Global Financial
Crisis, exploring various dimensions of mortgage financing, including its relationship
with the broader economy, and the events and market disruptions that caused the
collapse of this sector. Nevertheless, as the crisis gradually receded, certain pivotal
questions and research areas have seen diminished interest, overshadowed by other
subjects. This Thesis aims to enrich the existing body of literature by offering new
insights into two significant aspects of residential mortgages that remain pertinent
today, despite receiving scant attention in recent years. The first research domain focuses on correlation; the second investigates mortgage dynamics in response to specific
lifecycle events, such as modification and default.
Correlation plays a crucial role in determining both regulatory and economic capital,
as it quantifies the interconnectedness of loans within the same asset class. Hence, the
precision of the correlation parameter is vital for accurate risk assessment and management. Within the regulatory framework, the Basel Committee on Banking Supervision
(BCBS) has set the correlation for residential mortgages at a fixed value of 15%. Although this value is deemed to be sufficiently conservative, there is limited evidence
supporting its flat nature. This research primarily seeks to ascertain the validity of
this assumption by investigating the presence of significant variations in default correlation across different segments of the residential mortgage market. Moreover, the
study examines the impact of correlation on lenders’ loan pricing strategies and questions whether current regulation implicitly encourages regulatory capital arbitrage.
Throughout the lifetime of a mortgage, various events can alter the standard repayment trajectory, which in turn has significant implications for lenders, borrowers, and
stakeholders. The second and third empirical chapters of this Thesis analyse the
determinants that characterise mortgage resolutions following loan modification and
default, respectively. Specifically, this Thesis enhances existing research by examining
how policy changes and mortgage market breaks have impacted consumers behaviour
after the occurrence of these events. In particular, the second empirical study analyses
the outcomes of post-modification and its determinants following the cessation of the
Home Affordable Modification Program (HAMP), implemented by the US government
to address the escalating defaults triggered by the Global Financial Crisis. Conversely,
the third empirical chapter examines post-default resolutions and their determinants
across three periods: before, during, and after the crisis.
This study utilises mortgages originated in the United States by the Federal Home Loan
Mortgage Corporation (Freddie Mac). The data under examination encompasses over
20 years and offers a nationwide scope, thereby providing a novel viewpoint within the
existing literature, which has predominantly focused on either sub-prime portfolios or
state-specific mortgages
TMS-evoked potential propagation reflects effective brain connectivity
Get PDFObjective. Cognition is achieved through communication between brain regions. Consequently, there is considerable interest in measuring effective connectivity. A promising effective connectivity metric is transcranial magnetic stimulation (TMS) evoked potentials (TEPs), an inflection in amplitude of the electroencephalogram recorded from one brain region as a result of TMS applied to another region. However, the TEP is confounded by multiple factors and there is a need for further investigation of the TEP as a measure of effective connectivity and to compare it to existing statistical measures of effective connectivity. Approach. To this end, we used a pre-existing experimental dataset to compare TEPs between a motor control task with and without visual feedback. We then used the results to compare our TEP-based measures of effective connectivity to established statistical measures of effective connectivity provided by multivariate auto-regressive modelling. Main results. Our results reveal significantly more negative TEPs when feedback is not presented from 40 ms to 100 ms post-TMS over frontal and central channels. We also see significantly more positive later TEPs from 280–400 ms on the contra-lateral hemisphere motor and parietal channels when no feedback is presented. These results suggest differences in effective connectivity are induced by visual feedback of movement. We further find that the variation in one of these early TEPs (the N40) is reliably related to directed coherence. Significance. Taken together, these results indicate components of the TEPs serve as a measure of effective connectivity. Furthermore, our results also support the idea that effective connectivity is a dynamic process and, importantly, support the further use of TEPs in delineating region-to-region maps of changes in effective connectivity as a result of motor control feedback
The cardiovascular system
No full textKey messages
● Dietary factors can modify the underlying causes of car-
diovascular disease: high blood pressure, impaired cardiac
electrophysiology and factors driving atherogenesis, such
as inflammation, oxidative stress, platelet activation, en-
dothelial function and lipoprotein infiltration of the artery
wall and resultant lipid accumulation.
● Atherosclerosis can affect arteries from an early age and
is largely preventable by lifelong maintenance of a healthy
body weight, a balanced diet and regular physical activity.
● Replacing saturated fat intake with unsaturated fat or
wholegrains can decrease low-density lipoprotein (LDL)
cholesterol concentrations; lowering LDL cholesterol re-
duces cholesterol accumulation in atherosclerotic plaques
and decreases risk of cardiovascular disease.
● The type of LDL particle is important: small, dense LDLs (and
triacylglycerol-rich lipoprotein remnants) are particularly ath-
erogenic. The atherogenic lipoprotein phenotype (more small
dense LDL, reduced high-density lipoprotein cholesterol (HDL-
C) and higher triacylglycerol) can be improved by weight loss
and reducing intake of refined starches and sugars.
● Although dairy foods are rich in saturated fatty acids, evi-
dence suggests that greater consumption of dairy foods
is not associated with increased risk of cardiovascular
disease, highlighting the importance of considering whole
foods and dietary patterns in cardiovascular disease risk,
rather than individual dietary components.
● Long-chain n-3 polyunsaturated fatty acids, derived from
marine sources, can target many facets of atherosclerosis,
including inflammation, thrombosis, blood pressure, vas-
cular function, hypertriacylglycerolaemia and cardiac func-
tion, but supplementation in populations at risk or with
existing cardiovascular disease has not convincingly dem-
onstrated reductions in mortality or events.
● Lowering sodium intake from dietary salt lowers blood
pressure, even in the context of a healthy, balanced diet
and in normotensive individuals, and may improve en-
dothelial function.
● Reductions in animal protein intake and a shift to a pre-
dominantly plant-based diet are recommended based on
evidence that red and processed meat may be associated
with increased risk of cardiovascular disease (possibly
due to saturated fatty acid and sodium content) and the
beneficial effects of higher intakes of fibre, potassium and
other micronutrients, organic nitrate and phytochemicals
in plant foods. Diets rich in fruits, vegetables, wholegrains,
nuts and seeds may lower blood pressure and blood lipids,
and improve endothelial function and glycaemic control
Filtering or facilitating productive entrepreneurship?
Get PDFThere is a paucity of knowledge on the conditions which enable productive entrepreneurship, particularly those which are policy-amenable like regulations. Rooted in opposing theories of public choice and public interest, we investigate the effect of several types of business regulation on productive entrepreneurship, accounting also for importance of corruption. First, we propose a composite measure of productive entrepreneurship based on three criteria: ability to capture current and potential economic gains, reflective of activities and output, and innovation-centric. Second, using a multi-source panel dataset comprising 1065 country-year observations for 118 countries during 2005–2016, we hypothesize and empirically test for the effect of three types of regulation relevant to business stages - Birth, Growth, and Exit (BSR, GSR, EXSR) - on our measure of productive entrepreneurship. Our findings advance growing insights on the highly heterogenous nature of regulation by type and even by tool (e.g. financial, procedural), and limited recent insights on drivers of productive entrepreneurship. We offer implications for research and for policy design
Tragic freedoms
No full textThis paper considers the usefulness of tragedy as a historical source, specifically on the question of personal freedoms in fifth-century Athens. The underlying methodological principle is that we must consider tragedy as drama before we consider it as evidence. The paper looks first briefly at free speech and then, at greater length, at freedom of movement, with a specific focus on the movement of female characters. Through an examination of first entrances in the extant plays, I try to uncover what assumptions were shared between poet and audience about a woman’s ability to leave the house and enter the public spaces of the city. Within the limitations of the evidence, it appears that (1) tragic women almost always make their first entrance from the stage building in plays where that building represents a house or palace, and (2) there are social constraints on the freedom of unmarried women in tragedy. However, there are frequent variations from this pattern. Tragic freedoms and unfreedoms emerge as contestable and subject to perceived social status
Towards closing the housing gap in the UK: exploration of the influencing factors and the way forward
No full textPurpose – Housing provides constructed space for human activities. Literature indicates that
housing impacts wealth, education attainment and health outcomes, among others. Because of its
contributions to society, it is essential to develop and implement strategies that address the housing
shortage experienced in most cities across the globe. This study aims to unpack the factors affecting
housing production in the UK and chart the way forward.
Design/methodology/approach – In addressing this study’s aim, an interprivitst approach was
adopted and semi-structured interviews were conducted with 18 experienced professionals. Data were
collected across the four nations of the UK (England,Wales, Scotland and Northern Ireland).
Findings – The results indicated that the opportunistic behaviour of stakeholders is one of the main factors
affecting housing production in the study area. Also, modern construction methods, collaborative practices,
government intervention and affordable housing schemes were identified as key strategies for addressing
housing production factors.
Practical implications – This study identified strategies for mitigating housing production issues that
provide a focal point to all stakeholders keen on filling the housing shortage gap and improving productivity
to channel their resources and effort accordingly.
Originality/value – To the best of the authors’ knowledge, this study is one of the first to empirically
analyse the influencing factors on the housing gap in the UK from the perspective of the supply side to
provide information that could lead towards closing the said gap
Evolution of natural polymer nerve conduit technology in peripheral nerve repair: a narrative review
Get PDFPeripheral nerve injury is a worldwide challenge in the clinic. Although autologous nerve is considered the gold standard for bridging large nerve defects (> 5 mm), donor-site morbidity, limited sources of donor nerves and other potential side effects restrict its application in nerve regeneration. Nerve guidance conduits have become increasingly popular as a promising alternative to autologous nerve repair and regeneration. The evolution of nerve guidance conduits from nondegradable materials to various biodegradable materials subsequently results in enhanced properties, such as superior biodegradability, a mimetic extracellular matrix and an optimal structure. This review describes current therapies for nerve repair and the mechanism and evolution of nerve guidance conduits with advantages and limitations; proposes the detailed requirements of ideal nerve guidance conduits; and emphasizes the applications of natural polymers, including collagen, chitosan, alginate, gelatin, silk fibroin and hyaluronic acid, in nerve regeneration with the incorporation of various functional materials, chemical modifications and feasible techniques to promote cell proliferation and axon regeneration. Compared with natural polymers, advanced nerve guidance conduits have considerable potential for nerve regeneration in the clinic
Low-quality sensor data-based semi-supervised learning for medical image segmentation
Get PDFTraditional medical image sensors face multiple challenges. First, these sensors typically rely on large amounts of labeled data, which are time-consuming and costly to obtain. Second, when the data volume and image size are large, traditional sensors have limited computational power, making it difficult to effectively train and infer models. Additionally, traditional sensors have poor generalization ability and struggle to adapt to datasets with different modalities. This paper devises a novel framework, named LSDSL, and deploys it in the sensor. LSDSL utilizes low-quality sensor data for semi-supervised learning in medical image segmentation. in supervised learning, we devise the hard region exploration (hre) module to enhance the model’s comprehension of low-quality pixels in hard regions. in unsupervised learning, we introduce a pseudo-label sharing (ps) module, which allows low-quality pixels in one network to learn from the high-quality pixels in the other networks. our model outperforms other semi-supervised methods on the datasets of two different modalities (CT and MRI) in medical image sensors, achieving superior inference speed and segmentation accuracy
Public interest in online information on recurrent urinary tract infections is greatest for information with the poorest publication quality
Get PDFBackground: Urinary tract infections (UTIs) are among the most prevalent bacterial infections. With many patients turning to the Internet as a health resource, this study seeks to understand public engagement with online resources concerning recurrent UTIs (rUTIs), assess their reliability, and identify common questions/concerns about rUTIs. Methods: Social media analysis tool BuzzSumo was used to calculate online engagement (likes, shares, comments, views) with information on rUTIs. The reliability of highly engaged articles was evaluated using the DISCERN questionnaire. Highly engaged categories were entered as keywords in Google Trends to quantify search interest. To categorize patient-specific concerns, a database containing anonymously collected patient questions about rUTIs was created. Results: BuzzSumo revealed four search categories: general information, treatment, causes, and herbal remedies. DISCERN scores indicated moderate reliability overall; however, the “herbal remedies” category demonstrated poor reliability despite high engagement. Google Trends analysis highlighted “causes” and “treatment” searches as highest in relative interest. The 10 most popular categories of concern were antibiotics, microbiome, vaccines, prevention, pelvic pain, sex, testing, symptoms, diet/lifestyle, and hormones. Conclusions: People living with rUTIs demonstrate key concerns and often seek information online, yet articles with high engagement often contain unreliable information. Healthcare professionals may consider counteracting misinformation by providing evidence-based information online about rUTIs
Retrospective cohort study of additional procedures and transplant‐free survival for patients with functionally single ventricle disease undergoing staged palliation in England and Wales
Get PDFBackground
Reinterventions may influence the outcomes of children with functionally single‐ventricle (f‐SV) congenital heart disease.
Methods and Results
We undertook a retrospective cohort study of children starting treatment for f‐SV between 2000 and 2018 in England, using the national procedure registry. Patients were categorized based on whether they survived free of transplant beyond 1 year of age. Among patients who had transplant‐free survival beyond 1 year of age, we explored the relationship between reinterventions in infancy and the outcomes of survival and Fontan completion, adjusting for complexity. Of 3307 patients with f‐SV, 909 (27.5%), had no follow‐up beyond 1 year of age, among whom 323 (35.3%) had ≥1 reinterventions in infancy. A total of 2398 (72.5%) patients with f‐SV had transplant‐free survival beyond 1 year of age, among whom 756 (31.5%) had ≥1 reinterventions in infancy. The 5‐year transplant‐free survival and cumulative incidence of Fontan, among those who survived infancy, were 93.4% (95% CI, 92.4%–94.4%) and 79.3% (95% CI, 77.4%–81.2%), respectively. Both survival and Fontan completion were similar for those with a single reintervention and those who had no reinterventions. Patients who had >1 additional surgery (adjusted hazard ratio, 3.93 [95% CI, 1.87–8.27] P1 additional interventional catheter (adjusted subdistribution hazard ratio, 0.71 [95% CI, 0.52–0.96] P=0.03) had a lower likelihood of achieving Fontan.
Conclusions
Among children with f‐SV, the occurrence of >1 reintervention in the first year of life, especially surgical reinterventions, was associated with poorer prognosis later in childhood