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Heterogeneous preferences and consumer willingness to pay for vitamin D fortification of eggs
Get PDFFood reformulation can contribute to achieve public health
objectives by facilitating access to healthy and sustainable
food choices to consumers. Vitamin D is an important
micronutrient that contributes to calcium absorption and
bone health. Low vitamin D levels may lead to having a
higher risk of poor bone and muscle for human health. In
this manuscript we investigated, for the first time, United
Kingdom consumer willingness to pay (WTP), and heterogeneity preferences for vitamin D fortification of eggs. We
used a choice experiment (CE) involving several hypothetical egg products (i.e., pack of 10 eggs) that vary across
three attributes levels such as production method (i.e.,
Cage, Barn, Free‐range, and Organic), vitamin (i.e., no
information or by reporting on the pack the claim “Vitamin
D added”), and price (i.e., £0.80/pack, £1.90/pack, £3.00/
pack, and £4.10/pack). Results suggest that, although on
average consumers prefer low‐price eggs produced using
the free‐range production method and the information
about vitamin D fortification does not affect their valuation,
there is a significant preference heterogeneity in consumer preferences associated with animal welfare, environment,
health, and price attributes. Particularly, there is a significant preference heterogeneity towards the purchasing of eggs produced using the barn production method. Furthermore, we found that consumer preferences for vitamin D fortification of eggs is affected by consumer's age and the price of eggs. These findings provide useful insights into the psychology of consumer acceptance and attitudes that can be used in communicating the nature of the fortified vitamin D eggs to the public. They also have important implications for future labeling policies and marketing strategies of egg industry
Sea-surface temperature pattern effects have slowed global warming and biased warming-based constraints on climate sensitivity
No full textThe observed rate of global warming since the 1970s has been proposed as a strong constraint on equilibrium climate sensitivity (ECS) and transient climate response (TCR)—key metrics of the global climate response to greenhouse-gas forcing. Using CMIP5/6 models, we show that the inter-model relationship between warming and these climate sensitivity metrics (the basis for the constraint) arises from a similarity in transient and equilibrium warming patterns within the models, producing an effective climate sensitivity (EffCS) governing recent warming that is comparable to the value of ECS governing long-term warming under CO
forcing. However, CMIP5/6 historical simulations do not reproduce observed warming patterns. When driven by observed patterns, even high ECS models produce low EffCS values consistent with the observed global warming rate. The inability of CMIP5/6 models to reproduce observed warming patterns thus results in a bias in the modeled relationship between recent global warming and climate sensitivity. Correcting for this bias means that observed warming is consistent with wide ranges of ECS and TCR extending to higher values than previously recognized. These findings are corroborated by energy balance model simulations and coupled model (CESM1-CAM5) simulations that better replicate observed patterns via tropospheric wind nudging or Antarctic meltwater fluxes. Because CMIP5/6 models fail to simulate observed warming patterns, proposed warming-based constraints on ECS, TCR, and projected global warming are biased low. The results reinforce recent findings that the unique pattern of observed warming has slowed global-mean warming over recent decades and that how the pattern will evolve in the future represents a major source of uncertainty in climate projections
Lake water temperature modeling in an era of climate change: data sources, models, and future prospects
Get PDFLake thermal dynamics have been considerably impacted by climate change, with potential adverse effects on aquatic ecosystems. To better understand the potential impacts of future climate change on lake thermal dynamics and related processes, the use of mathematical models is essential. In this study, we provide a comprehensive review of lake water temperature modeling. We begin by discussing the physical concepts that regulate thermal dynamics in lakes, which serve as a primer for the description of process-based models. We then provide an overview of different sources of observational water temperature data, including in situ monitoring and satellite Earth observations, used in the field of lake water temperature modeling. We classify and review the various lake water temperature models available, and then discuss model performance, including commonly used performance metrics and optimization methods. Finally, we analyze emerging modeling approaches, including forecasting, digital twins, combining process-based modeling with deep learning, evaluating structural model differences through ensemble modeling, adapted water management, and coupling of climate and lake models. This review is aimed at a diverse group of professionals working in the fields of limnology and hydrology, including ecologists, biologists, physicists, engineers, and remote sensing researchers from the private and public sectors who are interested in understanding lake water temperature modeling and its potential applications
Risk social contracts: exploring responsibilities through the lens of citizens affected by flooding in Germany in 2021
Get PDFCitizen priorities, needs, and rights have been moving to the centre of ‘good’ risk management and governance in theory, but what is their role in practice? The disastrous impacts of the flooding event across Western Europe in 2021 highlighted many gaps and challenges in flood risk governance (FRG) structures in Germany. To better understand these, this study explored responsibilities as perceived by citizens and compares these with legal-institutional social contracts. The perceptions of citizens were captured in an online survey in the affected regions. The results indicate that German FRG remains a predominantly top-down system with citizens being dependent on the functioning of the risk and emergency system. The results of the survey highlight the need for: 1) clarifying and co-defining roles and responsibilities in FRG and making them more transparent; 2) enhancing citizen active involvement in governance and deliberating interactions; 3) rebuilding trust; and 4) creating joint responsibilities between citizens and local authorities. Based on the findings of the study, it became apparent that research on citizen centred FRG is steps ahead of policy and practice. To enhance policy and practice, recommendations were developed to foster collaboration between citizens and local authorities to strengthen local FRG
Groundwater recharge is diffuse in semi-arid African drylands: evidence from highly instrumented observatories
Get PDFWe use two comprehensively instrumented field observatories to understand groundwater recharge processes in African drylands. The observatories are located on crystalline basement geology in semi-arid parts of Ghana and Burkina Faso, aridity indices 0.43 and 0.29, respectively, and we report 2017–2019 observations. Groundwater recharge was quantified by inverse water table fluctuation models using specific yield estimates derived from magnetic resonance soundings. Evidence for recharge drivers and mechanisms comes from high resolution meteorological observations, soil moisture (logged hourly and weekly along hillslope transects), overland flow plots, river stage, and stable isotopes of O and H in rainfall events and groundwater. Groundwater recharge varied between 87 and 175 mm/y, i.e. 7–15 % of annual rainfall. Rainfall was twice the volume of water lost via actual evapotranspiration across the four peak months (Jun-Sep) of the monsoon. This seasonal water surplus of ∼ 350 mm/y is not characterised by the annual scale of the aridity index. Overland flow was rare and soil moisture deficits were overcome at all monitoring locations. Large rainfall events only produced appreciable recharge when the antecedent soil moisture was close to field capacity, yet always produced large responses in river stage. Stable isotopes of O and H in groundwater indicate no evidence of evapotranspiration prior to infiltration and their composition is akin to depleted isotopic rainfall at the monsoon peak. Stable isotopes indicate recharge season timing and not a relationship between intense rainfall and groundwater recharge. We contend that the mechanism for groundwater recharge is predominantly diffuse in these semi-arid African settings
Wild blueberry extract intervention in healthy older adults: a multi-study, randomised, controlled investigation of acute cognitive and cardiovascular effects
Get PDFBackground: Circadian and homeostatic declines in cognitive performance are observed during the day, most commonly at 14:00. Additionally, postprandial reductions in cognitive ability have been widely demonstrated 1 h after lunch consumption, affecting domains of executive functioning (EF), episodic memory (EM), and attention. Existing evidence shows that anthocyanin-rich foods such as berries may improve or attenuate the decline in EF and EM in ageing adults. Further research is required to assess whether extracts such as wild blueberry extract (WBE) may be
beneficial for cognitive function across an acute timeframe, including known periods of reduced functioning. Objectives: (1) Study 1: ROAB: To investigate the efficacy of WBE in maintaining EF and EM throughout the day alongside measures of cardiovascular outcomes in healthy older adults. A range of WBE doses were utilised to identify the optimal dose at which cognitive and cardiovascular effects occur. (2) Study 2: BEAT: To replicate alleviation of cognitive decline during a predicted post-lunch dip whilst also improving cardiovascular outcomes following acute WBE 222 mg supplementation. Methods: Both studies employed a randomised, double-blind, cross-over, placebo-controlled design to explore the effects of WBE intervention versus placebo on several outcomes, including EM, EF, blood pressure, and heart rate in a healthy older adult population
(aged 68–75). In ROAB, 28 participants received a single dose of WBE 111 mg, 222 mg, 444 mg, or 888 mg or placebo over a 5-week period, each separated by a 1-week washout. Outcomes were measured at 0 h, 2 h, 4 h, and 6 h post intervention, with intervention occurring immediately after baseline (0 h). In BEAT, 45 participants received WBE 222 mg and placebo (1-week washout). Outcomes were measured at 0 h and 6 h (14:00) when a post-lunch dip was anticipated. This was further enhanced by consumption of lunch 1 h prior to cognitive testing. The WBE 222 mg intervention aligned with
known peaks in plasma blueberry polyphenol metabolites at 2 h post dosing, which would coincide with a predicted drop in post-lunch performance. Results: ROAB: A significant dip in executive function was apparent at the 4 h timepoint for placebo only, indicating attenuation for WBE doses.
Strikingly, WBE 222 mg produced acute reductions in both systolic and diastolic blood pressure compared with placebo. BEAT: EF reaction time was found to be significantly faster for WBE 222 compared to placebo at the predicted post-lunch dip (14:00), with no other notable benefits on a range
of cognitive and cardiovascular outcomes. Conclusion: These two studies indicate that WBE may have cardiovascular benefits and attenuate the natural cognitive decline observed over the course of the day, particularly when a decline is associated with a circadian rhythm-driven postprandial dip. However, it is important to acknowledge that effects were subtle, and benefits were only observed on
a small number of outcomes. Further research is required to explore the utility of WBE in populations already experiencing mild cognitive impairment
Modelling the role of enzymatic pathways in the metabolism of docosahexaenoic acid by monocytes and its association with osteoarthritic pain
Get PDFChronic pain is a major cause of disability and suffering in osteoarthritis (OA) patients. Endogenous specialised pro-resolving molecules (SPMs) curtail pro-inflammatory responses. One of the SPM intermediate oxylipins, 17-hydroxydocasahexaenoic acid (17-HDHA, a metabolite of docosahexaenoic acid (DHA)), is significantly associated with OA pain. The aim of this multidisciplinary work is to develop a mathematical model to describe the contributions of enzymatic pathways (and the genes that encode them) to the metabolism of DHA by monocytes and to the levels of the down-stream metabolites, 17-HDHA and 14-hydroxydocasahexaenoic acid (14-HDHA), motivated by novel clinical data from a study involving 30 participants with OA. The data include measurements of oxylipin levels, mRNA levels, measures of OA severity and self-reported pain scores.
We propose a system of ordinary differential equations to characterise associations between the different datasets, in order to determine the homeostatic concentrations of DHA, 17-HDHA and 14-HDHA, dependent upon the gene expression of the associated metabolic enzymes. Using parameter-fitting methods, local sensitivity and uncertainty analysis, the model is shown to fit well qualitatively to experimental data.
The model suggests that up-regulation of some ALOX genes may lead to the down-regulation of 17-HDHA and that dosing with 17-HDHA increases the production of resolvins, which helps to down-regulate the inflammatory response. More generally, we explore the challenges and limitations of modelling real data, in particular individual variability, and also discuss the value of gathering additional experimental data motivated by the modelling insights
Stability of cloud detection methods for Land Surface Temperature (LST) Climate Data Records (CDRs)
Get PDFThe stability of a climate data record (CDR) is essential for evaluating long-term trends in surface temperature using remote sensing products. In the case of a satellite-derived CDR of land surface temperature (LST), this includes the stability of processing steps prior to the estimation of the target climate variable. Instability in the masking of cloud-affected observations can result in non-geophysical trends in a LST CDR. This paper provides an assessment of cloud detection performance stability over a 25-year LST CDR generated using data from the second Along-Track Scanning Radiometer (ATSR-2), the Advanced Along-Track Scanning Radiometer (AATSR), the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) and the Sea and Land Surface Temperature Radiometer (SLSTR). We evaluate three cloud detection methodologies, one fully Bayesian, one naïve probabilistic and the operational threshold-based cloud mask provided with each sensor, at four in-situ ceilometer sites. Of the 12 algorithm-site combinations assessed, only two (17 %) were stable across the full timeseries with respect to both cloud contamination and missed clear-sky observations. Five (42 %) were stable with respect to missed clear-sky observations only. The associated impacts on LST trends in the CDR could be as large as (+/-)0.73 K per decade (0.43 K per decade above the target stability), which means that attention needs to be paid to this aspect of stability in order to understand uncertainty in long-term observed trends. Given that cloud detection stability has not to our knowledge been previously assessed for any target climate variable, this conclusion may apply more broadly to satellite-derived CDRs
Semi-empirical water dimer model of the water vapour self-continuum within the IR absorption bands
Get PDFWater vapour continuum absorption is an important component of atmospheric radiative transfer codes. It significantly impacts the radiative balance of the atmosphere, but the physical nature of this absorption remains a subject of discussion. Here the H2O self-continuum absorption is considered within the infrared absorption bands (from 50 to 11 200 cm-1) of water vapour exploiting existing measurements. Comparison of this data with the MT_CKD-3.5 continuum model, which is used in many radiative transfer codes, reveals significant quantitative and qualitative differences. New water vapour self-continuum spectra are derived from earlier FTS measurements using HITRAN-2016 in the 5300 and 7200 cm-1 bands. A previously proposed water dimer model is refined and unified based on a broad set of up-to-date experimental data on the H2O continuum. The new model, which is suitable for incorporation into radiative transfer codes, has a much firmer physical basis than existing models. It reproduces the spectral behaviour and magnitude of the in-band water vapour self-continuum for temperatures from 279 to 431 K depending on the band. Importantly, the fitted total equilibrium dimerization constant used in the updated continuum model exceeds independent estimates by a factor of 1.5–3 across the entire temperature and spectral regions studied. Possible causes for this, which are important for understanding the physical origin of the continuum, are discussed. The contribution of water dimer to the continuum is estimated to vary from 40 to 90% depending on absorption band and temperature
Evaluating an early social communication intervention for young children with Down Syndrome (ASCEND): results from a feasibility randomised control trial
Get PDFBackground: This paper reports the results from a feasibility trial of an early parent-delivered social communication intervention for young children with Down Syndrome (‘ASCEND'). The intervention focuses on developing children’s early social communication skills, in particular responding to shared attention. The aim was to inform the feasibility of running a full-scale trial through National Health Service (NHS) Speech and Language Therapy (SaLT) Services, to assess whether the intervention is effective in improving language skills before children with Down Syndrome start school.
Methods: This was a two-arm feasibility randomised controlled trial (RCT), with 1:1 randomisation stratified by trial site, comparing the intervention plus standard NHS SaLT provision with standard NHS SaLT alone. We recruited 20 children with Down Syndrome aged between 11 and 36 months through three NHS SaLT services, 19 of whom were randomised (10 - intervention group, 9 -control group). Pre and post intervention and 6-month follow-up assessments included language, social communication skills, adaptive behaviour, quality of life (parents and children), parental anxiety and depression. The intervention was parent-delivered with parents having access to SaLT services and the research team during the intervention. Data were collected on recruitment and retention, standard care, treatment fidelity, acceptability of the intervention by the parents and speech and language therapists, feasibility of collecting health economic measures and suitability of the primary outcome measure.
Results: The sample was sufficient for a feasibility study. The intervention (manual, support, materials) was positively received by the participating parents. Speech and language therapists also evaluated the acceptability of the intervention positively. Treatment fidelity which was measured by completion f weekly parent diaries and 2 adherence phone call were acceptable as 100% of the parent diaries were returned, over 90% of the parental diaries were completed correctly and 100% of adherence phone calls were completed. Retention was acceptable at 84% overall. The preliminary health economic data suggest that this intervention will be low cost. The sample size calculation suggests that 290 participants would need to be recruited, with 228 having a complete data set, for a full RCT.
Conclusion: Based on recruitment, retention and treatment fidelity, as well as the acceptability of the intervention to parents and speech and language therapists, a full-scale trial would be feasible in order to assess the effectiveness of the intervention