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The water balance representation in Urban-PLUMBER land surface models
Get PDFUrban Land Surface Models (ULSMs) simulate energy and water exchanges between the urban surface and atmosphere. However, earlier systematic ULSM comparison projects assessed the energy balance but ignored the water balance which is coupled to the energy balance. Here, we analyze the water balance representation in 19 ULSMs participating in the Urban-PLUMBER project using results for 20 sites spread across a range of climates and urban form characteristics. As observations for most water fluxes are unavailable, we examine the water balance closure, flux timing, and magnitude with a score derived from seven indicators expecting better scoring models to capture the latent heat flux more accurately. We find that the water budget is only closed in 57% of the model-site combinations assuming closure when annual total incoming fluxes (precipitation and irrigation) fluxes are within 3% of the outgoing (all other) fluxes. Results show the timing is better captured than magnitude. No ULSM has passed all water balance indicators for any site. Models passing more indicators do not capture the latent heat flux more accurately refuting our hypothesis. While output reporting inconsistencies may have negatively affected model performance, our results indicate models could be improved by explicitly verifying water balance closure and revising runoff parameterizations. By expanding ULSM evaluation to the water balance and related to latent heat flux performance, we demonstrate the benefits of evaluating processes with direct feedback mechanisms to the processes of interest
Advancing liquid MALDI ion source designs and applications in modern biological mass spectrometry
Get PDFMass spectrometry (MS) is a sensitive and specific analytical method often used for
biological samples and assays. Its widespread application for screening is restrained by
the limited sample throughput compared to traditional photometric assay readouts. In
this work, the suitability of mass spectrometry using liquid atmospheric pressure matrix-assisted laser desorption/ionisation (LAP-MALDI) as an ionisation technique for high
speed MS analysis and screening of biochemical assays was investigated.
In a first step, a substrate and product of an enzymatic assay were detected at 5 samples/s without prior sample clean-up. More complex samples (milk) were analysed at
1 samples/s. After further improvements in hardware and software, the analysis of a
second enzymatic assay was accelerated to 16 samples/s and peptide standards were
analysed at 40 samples/s. This is faster than other MS-based methods reported in the
literature and also highly competitive with photometric readouts.
Additionally, a systematic study of various components often used in biochemical screening assays and generally biological mass spectrometry on the ion signal of a peptide
mixture was carried out. Although pronounced ion suppression was observed with some
additives, compounds such as the surfactant octyl-β-D-glucopyranoside and the buffer
tricine were found suitable with LAP-MALDI MS analysis.
In summary, LAP-MALDI allows for rapid MS sample analysis, the fast readout of
biochemical assays and shows great potential for high-throughput screening. Possible
improvements by enhanced automation are also discussed
Carbon dioxide enrichment affected flower numbers transiently and increased successful post-pollination development stably but without altering final acorn production in mature pedunculate oak (Quercus robur L.)
Get PDFAcorn production in oak (Quercus spp.) shows considerable inter-annual variation, known as masting, which provides a natural defence against seed predators but a highly-variable supply of acorns for uses such as in commercial tree planting each year. Anthropogenic emissions of greenhouse gases have been very widely reported to influence plant growth and seed or fruit size and quantity via the ‘fertilisation effect’ that leads to enhanced photosynthesis. To examine if acorn production in mature woodland communities will be affected by further increase in CO2, the contents of litter traps from a Free Air Carbon Enrichment (FACE) experiment in deciduous woodland in central England were analysed for numbers of flowers and acorns of pedunculate oak (Quercus robur L.) at different stages of development and their predation levels under ambient and elevated CO2 concentrations. Inter-annual variation in acorn numbers was considerable and cyclical between 2015 and 2021, with the greatest numbers of mature acorns in 2015, 2017, and 2020 but almost none in 2018. The numbers of flowers, enlarged cups, immature acorns, empty acorn cups, and galls in the litter traps also varied amongst years; comparatively high numbers of enlarged cups were recorded in 2018, suggesting Q. robur L. at this site is a fruit maturation masting species (i.e., the extent of abortion of pollinated flowers during acorn development affects mature acorn numbers greatly). Raising the atmospheric CO2 concentration by 150 μL L-1, from early 2017, increased the numbers of immature acorns, and all acorn evidence (empty cups + immature acorns + mature acorns) detected in the litter traps compared to ambient controls by 2021, but did not consistently affect the numbers of flowers, enlarged cups, empty cups, or mature acorns. The number of flowers in the elevated CO2 plots’ litter traps was greater in 2018 than 2017, one year after CO2 enrichment began, whereas numbers declined in ambient plots. Enrichment with CO2 also increased the number of oak knopper galls (Andricus quercuscalicis Burgsdorf). We conclude that elevated CO2 increased the occurrence of acorns developing from flowers, but the putative benefit to mature acorn numbers may have been hidden by excessive pre- and/or post-dispersal predation. There was no evidence that elevated CO2 altered masting behaviour
A first record of a suspected intestinal myiasis caused by Muscina stabulans (Fallén 1817) (Diptera: Muscidae) in Southern South America
Get PDFWe report a case of a suspected intestinal myiasis of a child from Southeast Argentina. Diptera larvae were sampled by a physician from the nappy worn by the child and submitted for examination and identification to the Laboratorio de Artrópodos (Universidad Nacional de Mar del Plata). Based on diagnosis of the anterior and posterior spiracles and mouthparts, the larvae were identified as the false stable fly Muscina stabulans (Fallén, 1817) (Diptera: Muscidae). A comparison of diagnostic characters between Argentinean and European third instars of this species is presented. Muscina stabulans is a prevalent species in the district of General Pueyrredón, Buenos Aires province, where the case occurred. Its abundance in the area coincidentally peaked at the time of the infestation. This is the 1st report of M. stabulans as a suspect of intestinal myiasis for the whole of the southern cone of South America (Chile and Argentina)
Towards malum prohibitum: crime deterrence strategies for reducing illicit antiquities trade
Get PDFFight against illegal antiquities trade has predominantly taken a reactive stance. This study operates with novel quantitative and qualitative data obtained through a survey and interviews with 42 law enforcement agents from 21 source and market countries. An empirical insight on illegal antiquities trade is provided, and a comprehensive reference framework of crime deterrence strategies is created. Incidence and efficiency rates of the identified strategies conceal that a law enforcement response at the market side, strengthened through policing, criminal prosecution, reverse of the burden of proof, market control and traceability, is deemed most effective deterrence-wise leveraging certainty of being caught, severity and celerity of punishment, the key mechanisms of Deterrence theory. By contrast, the existing international and EU legislation are considered inconsistent. The findings reveal the need for critically reviewing the current situation and defining a pathway for antiquities markets from malum non prohibitum environments to at least malum prohibitum climates: shaping proactive policy approaches through updated legislation and targeted crime deterrence and prevention activities to be applied mainly at the market side
Social inequalities in the use of online food delivery services and associations with weight status: cross-sectional analysis of survey and consumer data
Get PDFBackground Little is known about who uses online food delivery services and how use of these services is associated with social inequalities in food purchasing and diet-related health. This study explored associations between social position and use of online takeaway food and grocery delivery services, and its association with weight status.
Methods Data were obtained from households in a consumer research panel living in London and the north of England (n=1521) in February 2019. Use of online grocery delivery services was determined via recorded purchases, and takeaway food delivery app use via survey responses. Social position was approximated through occupation-based social grade and household income. We used logistic regression to estimate the association between social position and use of online delivery services, and the relationship between online delivery service use and weight status.
Results Overall, 13.2% of respondents used takeaway food delivery apps over a 7-day period and 15.6% of households used online grocery delivery services over a 4-week period. High-income households were more likely to use online grocery delivery services than low-income households (OR 2.01, 95% CI 1.22 to 3.34). In contrast, households with lower social grade were more likely to use takeaway food delivery apps compared with households in the highest grade (OR 2.31, 95% CI 1.38 to 3.87). While takeaway food delivery app use was positively associated with living with obesity (relative risk ratio 1.84, 95% CI 1.20 to 2.82), use of online grocery delivery services was not.
Discussion Findings indicate that use of online food delivery services is patterned by markers of social position and weight status, which may lead to dietary inequalities. The potential impact of increased and differential usage of online delivery services on diet and dietary inequalities warrants further research
New evidence of the Pottery Neolithic in the Eastern Mazandaran based on recent archaeological field survey
Get PDFThe issue of Neolithization in the eastern Mazandaran region has once again become an attractive topic for archaeologists and researchers after 70 years of silence. Excavations and field surveys have been carried out during these years to examine various hypotheses for the origins of plant and animal domestication in this important crossroads region. However, despite the clarification of some issues, more questions have been raised that remain unanswered. Past field surveys could not fully represent the Neolithic
capacities of eastern Mazandaran. Therefore, a field survey program titled “Investigation and Identification of Neolithic Settlements in the Lowlands and Highlands of Eastern Mazandaran” was proposed. In this field program,
two main goals were considered: 1) regional connections between sites in the highlands and plains of eastern Mazandaran; and 2) relations with adjacent regions of Northeastern Iran and South Turkmenistan. The first
goal sought to provide evidence of an endogenous transition to Neolithic lifeways, while the second examined possible routes for an exogenous origin. In the survey, 53 sites were investigated and pottery collections from previous excavations and field surveys were also reviewed. The
result was the identification of 30 Neolithic sites in both the highlands and plains, which increased the number of Neolithic settlements in eastern Mazandaran to 42 sites. Study of the collected pottery indicates that there
is a clear connection between the plains and the highlands, which is likely related to seasonal grazing of herding communities. According to the evidence, inter-regional relations with adjacent regions should be searched
not through intermontane valleys, but through the lowland Caspian littoral region, especially the Gorgan Plain, which may argue for a Neolithization process based on exogenous factors
Mathematical models of coagulation—are we there yet?
Get PDFBackground: Mathematical models of coagulation have been developed to mirror
thrombin generation in plasma, with the aim of investigating how variation in coagulation factor levels regulates hemostasis. However, current models vary in the reactions
they capture and the reaction rates used, and their validation is restricted by a lack of
large coherent datasets, resulting in questioning of their utility.
Objectives: To address this debate, we systematically assessed current models against
a large dataset, using plasma coagulation factor levels from 348 individuals with normal
hemostasis to identify the causes of these variations.
Methods: We compared model predictions with measured thrombin generation,
quantifying and comparing the ability of each model to predict thrombin generation,
the contributions of the individual reactions, and their dependence on reaction rates.
Results: We found that no current model predicted the hemostatic response across the
whole cohort and all produced thrombin generation curves that did not resemble those
obtained experimentally. Our analysis has identified the key reactions that lead to
differential model predictions, where experimental uncertainty leads to variability in
predictions, and we determined reactions that have a high influence on measured
thrombin generation, such as the contribution of factor XI.
Conclusion: This systematic assessment of models of coagulation, using large dataset
inputs, points to ways in which these models can be improved. A model that accurately
reflects the effects of the multiple subtle variations in an individual’s hemostatic profile
could be used for assessing antithrombotics or as a tool for precision medicine
Adapting genetic algorithms for multifunctional landscape decisions: a theoretical case study on wild bees and farmers in the UK
Get PDF1. Spatial modelling approaches to aid land-use decisions which benefit both wildlife and humans are often limited to the comparison of pre-determined landscape scenarios, which may not reflect the true optimum landscape for any end-user. Furthermore, the needs of wildlife are often under-represented when considered alongside human financial interests in these approaches.
2. We develop a method of addressing these gaps using a case-study of wild bees in the UK, an important group whose declines may adversely affect both human economies and surrounding ecosystems. By combining the genetic algorithm NSGA-II with a process-based pollinator model which simulates bee foraging and population dynamics, Poll4pop, we ‘evolve’ a typical UK agricultural landscape to identify optimum land cover configurations for three different guilds of wild bee. These configurations are compared to those resulting from optimisations for farm income alone, as well as optimisations that seek a compromise between bee populations and farm income objectives.
3. We find that the land cover proportions in landscapes optimised for each bee guild reflect their nesting habitat preferences rather than foraging preferences, highlighting a limiting resource within the study landscape. The spatially-explicit nature of these optimised landscapes illustrates how improvement for a given target species may be limited by differences between their movement range and the scale of the units being improved. Land cover composition and configuration differ significantly in landscapes optimised for farm income and bee population growth simultaneously and illustrate how human agents are required to compromise much more when the multifaceted nature of biodiversity is recognised and represented by multiple objectives within an optimisation framework. Our methods provide a way to quantify the extent to which real-life landscapes promote or compromise objectives for different landscape end-users.
4. Our investigation suggests that optimisation set-up (decision-unit scales, traditional choice of a single biodiversity metric) can bias outcomes towards human-centric solutions. It also demonstrates the importance of representing the individual requirements of different actors with different landscape-level needs when using genetic algorithms to support biodiversity-inclusive decision-making in multi-functional landscapes
Global incidence, prevalence, years lived with disability (YLDs), disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs), and healthy life expectancy (HALE) for 371 diseases and injuries in 204 countries and territories and 811 subnational locations, 1990–2021: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021
Get PDFBackground
Detailed, comprehensive, and timely reporting on population health by underlying causes of disability and premature death is crucial to understanding and responding to complex patterns of disease and injury burden over time and across age groups, sexes, and locations. The availability of disease burden estimates can promote evidence-based interventions that enable public health researchers, policy makers, and other professionals to implement strategies that can mitigate diseases. It can also facilitate more rigorous monitoring of progress towards national and international health targets, such as the Sustainable Development Goals. For three decades, the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) has filled that need. A global network of collaborators contributed to the production of GBD 2021 by providing, reviewing, and analysing all available data. GBD estimates are updated routinely with additional data and refined analytical methods. GBD 2021 presents, for the first time, estimates of health loss due to the COVID-19 pandemic.
Methods
The GBD 2021 disease and injury burden analysis estimated years lived with disability (YLDs), years of life lost (YLLs), disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs), and healthy life expectancy (HALE) for 371 diseases and injuries using 100 983 data sources. Data were extracted from vital registration systems, verbal autopsies, censuses, household surveys, disease-specific registries, health service contact data, and other sources. YLDs were calculated by multiplying cause-age-sex-location-year-specific prevalence of sequelae by their respective disability weights, for each disease and injury. YLLs were calculated by multiplying cause-age-sex-location-year-specific deaths by the standard life expectancy at the age that death occurred. DALYs were calculated by summing YLDs and YLLs. HALE estimates were produced using YLDs per capita and age-specific mortality rates by location, age, sex, year, and cause. 95% uncertainty intervals (UIs) were generated for all final estimates as the 2·5th and 97·5th percentiles values of 500 draws. Uncertainty was propagated at each step of the estimation process. Counts and age-standardised rates were calculated globally, for seven super-regions, 21 regions, 204 countries and territories (including 21 countries with subnational locations), and 811 subnational locations, from 1990 to 2021. Here we report data for 2010 to 2021 to highlight trends in disease burden over the past decade and through the first 2 years of the COVID-19 pandemic.
Findings
Global DALYs increased from 2·63 billion (95% UI 2·44–2·85) in 2010 to 2·88 billion (2·64–3·15) in 2021 for all causes combined. Much of this increase in the number of DALYs was due to population growth and ageing, as indicated by a decrease in global age-standardised all-cause DALY rates of 14·2% (95% UI 10·7–17·3) between 2010 and 2019. Notably, however, this decrease in rates reversed during the first 2 years of the COVID-19 pandemic, with increases in global age-standardised all-cause DALY rates since 2019 of 4·1% (1·8–6·3) in 2020 and 7·2% (4·7–10·0) in 2021. In 2021, COVID-19 was the leading cause of DALYs globally (212·0 million [198·0–234·5] DALYs), followed by ischaemic heart disease (188·3 million [176·7–198·3]), neonatal disorders (186·3 million [162·3–214·9]), and stroke (160·4 million [148·0–171·7]). However, notable health gains were seen among other leading communicable, maternal, neonatal, and nutritional (CMNN) diseases. Globally between 2010 and 2021, the age-standardised DALY rates for HIV/AIDS decreased by 47·8% (43·3–51·7) and for diarrhoeal diseases decreased by 47·0% (39·9–52·9). Non-communicable diseases contributed 1·73 billion (95% UI 1·54–1·94) DALYs in 2021, with a decrease in age-standardised DALY rates since 2010 of 6·4% (95% UI 3·5–9·5). Between 2010 and 2021, among the 25 leading Level 3 causes, age-standardised DALY rates increased most substantially for anxiety disorders (16·7% [14·0–19·8]), depressive disorders (16·4% [11·9–21·3]), and diabetes (14·0% [10·0–17·4]). Age-standardised DALY rates due to injuries decreased globally by 24·0% (20·7–27·2) between 2010 and 2021, although improvements were not uniform across locations, ages, and sexes. Globally, HALE at birth improved slightly, from 61·3 years (58·6–63·6) in 2010 to 62·2 years (59·4–64·7) in 2021. However, despite this overall increase, HALE decreased by 2·2% (1·6–2·9) between 2019 and 2021.
Interpretation
Putting the COVID-19 pandemic in the context of a mutually exclusive and collectively exhaustive list of causes of health loss is crucial to understanding its impact and ensuring that health funding and policy address needs at both local and global levels through cost-effective and evidence-based interventions. A global epidemiological transition remains underway. Our findings suggest that prioritising non-communicable disease prevention and treatment policies, as well as strengthening health systems, continues to be crucially important. The progress on reducing the burden of CMNN diseases must not stall; although global trends are improving, the burden of CMNN diseases remains unacceptably high. Evidence-based interventions will help save the lives of young children and mothers and improve the overall health and economic conditions of societies across the world. Governments and multilateral organisations should prioritise pandemic preparedness planning alongside efforts to reduce the burden of diseases and injuries that will strain resources in the coming decades