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A Bayesian Belief Network model for assessing financial risk in PPP healthcare projects
Get PDFPublic-Private Partnership (PPP) is essential for accelerating sustainable development as it combines public goals with private sector efficiency leading to improved service delivery and less financial burden on governments. It is a project delivery model that is based on long-term contractual arrangements where the private sector provides services including engineering, construction, and operation of public infrastructure taking the financial risk. At the project development stage, private sector carries out financial risk assessment to ensure economic returns from a PPP investment and secure funding for the project. In this paper, we present a Bayesian Belief Network (BBN)-based model that can be used to assess financial risks, particularly level of profitability in PPP projects. The proposed model was developed considering PPP projects in the healthcare sector and validated by using the data regarding PPP hospital projects in Turkiye. Findings demonstrate that the BBN model is useful for capturing interdependencies between risks resulting in different scenarios and provides an effective decision support for investors in PPP projects. It contributes to the literature by offering a novel application of probabilistic risk assessment to provide better understanding of interrelated risk factors that may result in different financial scenarios. The model can be used by private sector to assess risk, estimate profitability and develop risk mitigation strategies in PPP healthcare projects, which may increase project success contributing towards social, environmental and economic sustainability
Standardised and Objective Dietary Intake Assessment Tool (SODIAT): protocol of a dual-site dietary intervention study to integrate dietary assessment methods
Get PDFIntroduction
Current dietary assessment methods struggle to accurately capture individuals’ dietary habits. The ‘Standardised and Objective Dietary Intake Assessment Tool’ (SODIAT)-1 study aims to assess the effectiveness of three emerging technologies (urine and capillary blood biomarkers, wearable camera technology) and two online self-reporting dietary assessment tools to monitor dietary intake.
Methods
This randomised controlled crossover trial was conducted at two sites (Hammersmith Hospital and the University of Reading) and aimed to recruit 30 UK participants (aged 18-70 years, BMI 20-30 kg/m2). Exclusion criteria included recent weight change, food allergies/intolerances, restrictive diets, certain health conditions and medication use. Volunteers completed an online screening questionnaire via REDCap and eligible participants attended a pre-study visit. Participants consumed, in a random order, two highly-controlled diets (compliant/non-compliant with UK guidelines) for four consecutive days, separated by at least one-week. Dietary intake was monitored daily using wearable cameras and self-recorded using Intake24 (24HR). Two versions of the online eNutri FFQ were completed: at baseline to assess habitual diet and on day 4 of each test period to record food intake. Urine and capillary blood samples were collected for biomarker analysis. Data analysis will assess dietary reporting accuracy across these methods using Lin’s concordance correlation coefficient.
Discussion and ethical considerations
The SODIAT project introduced a novel approach to dietary assessment, aiming to address the limitations like misreporting and inclusivity. However, challenges persist, such as variability in biomarker data due to failure to follow sample storage requirements and the practicalities of wearing cameras throughout the day. To protect privacy, participants removed cameras at inappropriate times, and AI removed non-food related images and blurred faces/device screens captured on the images. The accuracy of the tools in a highly-controlled setting will be evaluated in this study. Future studies are planned to validate these tools further in free-living and minority populations
Consumption–investment and reinsurance problem under Markovian regime switching: time-consistent solution
No full textThis paper presents a characterization of equilibrium in a game theoretic description of discounting stochastic consumption, investment and reinsurance problem, in which the controlled state process evolves according to a multi-dimensional linear stochastic differential equation, when the noise is driven by a Brownian motion under the effect of a Markovian regime switching. The running and the terminal costs in the objective functional, are explicitly depended on some general discount functions, which create the time inconsistency of the considered model. Open-loop Nash equilibrium controls are described through some necessary and sufficient equilibrium conditions as well as a verification result. A state feedback equilibrium strategy is achieved via certain partial differential-difference equation. As an application, we study an investment–consumption and equilibrium reinsurance/new business strategies for some particular cases of power and logarithmic utility functions. A numerical example is provided to demonstrate the efficacy of theoretical results
Social Life Cycle Assessment (S-LCA) of formal and informal waste collectors in decentralized waste to compost facility
Get PDFThe global generation of municipal solid waste (MSW) is expected to increase by 70 % by 2050, reaching 3.4 billion metric tons. Despite the need for proper waste management, less than 20 % of waste is recycled, and waste continues to end up in landfills. Waste management is a significant problem in Bangladesh and other rapidly urbanizing nations, exacerbated by densely populated housing coupled with inadequate infrastructure. The utilization of informal waste collectors arises from the government’s frequent inability to offer sufficient waste collection and disposal services. A large number of Dhaka’s informal sector workers depend on collecting waste for a living. In this study, the social life cycle assessment (S-LCA) is applied to analyze the social implications of formal and informal waste collectors on the waste management process in Uttara, Dhaka. Working conditions, human rights, health and safety, and socio-economic repercussions are the four primary areas of focus for the SLCA. For the assessment, an indicator score ranging from 2 (best performance) to − 2 (poor performance) was
used. The data revealed that informal workers scored 0 for fair salaries, but formal workers received 1, showing that formal workers adhere to higher standards. Both groups obtained an average score of − 2 in the social security subcategory, which is much lower than anticipated. Formal workers scored − 2 on health and safety, while informal workers scored − 1, indicating serious inadequacies in both categories. These findings highlight the need for stronger legislation and support systems to enhance waste collectors’ working conditions in Dhaka and other similar cities throughout the world, as well as the considerable socioeconomic challenges they confront
Arctic bird nesting traces back to the Cretaceous
No full textPolar ecosystems are structured and enriched by birds, which nest there seasonally and serve as keystone ecosystem members. Despite the ecological importance of polar birds, the origins of high-latitude nesting strategies remain obscured by a sparse fossil record. We report an extreme-latitude Arctic avialan assemblage from the Prince Creek Formation of Alaska—the northernmost Late Cretaceous terrestrial ecosystem. Numerous three-dimensionally preserved fossils constitute one of the most taxonomically rich Late Cretaceous avialan assemblages, including members of Hesperornithes, Ichthyornithes, and near-crown or crown birds (Neornithes), recording a previously undocumented interval in avialan evolution. Abundant perinatal fossils represent the oldest evidence of birds nesting at polar latitudes, which demonstrates that birds began using seasonal polar environments for breeding during the Cretaceous, long before their modern descendants
In vivo evaluation of Pam2Cys‐modified cancer‐testis antigens as potential self‐adjuvanting cancer vaccines
Get PDFPeptide‐based vaccines, formulated with an appropriate adjuvant, offer a versatile platform for targeted cancer immunotherapy. While adjuvants are usually coadministered for nucleic acid and protein vaccines, synthetic peptide antigens afford a more effective opportunity to covalently and regioselectively graft immunostimulatory motifs directly onto the antigen scaffold to yield self‐adjuvanting vaccines. Herein, we explore the synthesis of two tissue‐restricted cancer‐testis antigens (CTAs); New York oesophageal cell carcinoma 1 (NY‐ESO‐1) and B melanoma antigen 4 (BAGE4), both carrying the toll‐like receptor (TLR) agonist, Pam2Cys. These constructs were evaluated in vivo along with a lipid nanoparticle (LNP) preparation of the underexplored BAGE4 melanoma antigen
The spatial distribution and temporal drivers of changing global fire regimes: a coupled socio‐ecological modeling approach
Get PDFThe limited capacity of fire‐enabled vegetation models to represent human influences on fire regimes is a fundamental challenge in fire science. This limitation places a major constraint on our capacity to understand how vegetation fire may change under future scenarios of climate change and socio‐economic development. Here, we address this challenge by presenting a novel integration of two process‐based models. The first is the Wildfire Human Agency Model (WHAM!), which draws on agent‐based approaches to represent anthropogenic fire use and management. The second is JULES‐INFERNO, a fire‐enabled dynamic global vegetation model, which takes a physically grounded approach to the representation of vegetation‐fire dynamics. The combined model enables a coupled socio‐ecological simulation of historical burned area. We calibrate the combined model using GFED5 burned area data and perform an independent evaluation using MODIS‐based fire radiative power observations. Results suggest that as much as half of all global burned area is generated by managed anthropogenic fires—typically small fires that are lit for, and then spread according to, land user objectives. Furthermore, we demonstrate that including representation of managed anthropogenic fires in a coupled socio‐ecological simulation improves understanding of the drivers of unmanaged wildfires. For example, we show how vegetation flammability and landscape fragmentation control inter‐annual variability and longer‐term change in unmanaged fires. Overall, findings presented here indicate that both socio‐economic and climate change will be vital in determining the future trajectory of fire on Earth
Creating an innovative approach to engagement, connectivity, and problem-solving in higher education institutions using LEGO® serious play®
Get PDFLEGO® Serious Play® (LSP) was used to understand the ideals of connectivity and inclusivity among students, adult learners, and workers in a higher education community. While connectivity in nature’s ecosystem has been well studied, it is important to explore this form of connectivity among humans. The objectives of this study were to determine and analyze the main barriers and enablers of connectivity and inclusivity in higher education teaching, learning, and operations, and to propose key action plans. By using LSP in our study, we explored a kinesthetic approach where participants from diverse age groups (20–56 years) and professional/academic levels built models and shared their stories with others. An evaluation of the workshop was obtained using questionnaires (open-ended and scale-based surveys). All the participants found the LSP useful for the overall experience, indicating a strong overall support for its use. In total, 75% of the participants found it valuable and 50% of the participants found the process “difficult”, particularly in group communication and model representation, which require further refinement. Participants’ responses showed that both affective and cognitive elements were active during the workshop, suggesting that this method encourages all voices to be heard. In addition, the methodology for problem-solving and entertainment is a promising pedagogical and andragogical tool for teaching in higher education and in non-academic settings
Exploring lipopeptide biosurfactants as natural preservatives for bakery products
No full textMicrobial spoilage, primarily caused by fungal contamination, poses a significant challenge to the
safety, shelf-life, and sustainability of bakery products. This research investigates lipopeptide
biosurfactants, specifically mycosubtilin, as natural preservatives to address these challenges and
meet consumer demand for “clean label” solutions.
Lipopeptides, recognised for their antifungal properties, were screened via in vitro microdilution
assays to determine antifungal activity and minimum inhibitory concentrations against key spoilage
fungi, including Aspergillus niger and Penicillium paneum. Thermal stability tests confirmed their
resilience to baking temperatures, and challenge tests demonstrated that mycosubtilin significantly
extended the shelf-life of inoculated bread slices.
Further experiments examined the influence of bread matrices and individual ingredients, revealing
that while mycosubtilin retains its antifungal activity in complex bread systems, the presence of oil
and starch reduced its efficacy. Transcriptomic analysis of A. niger and Saccharomyces cerevisiae
uncovered molecular pathways targeted by mycosubtilin, highlighting its stronger inhibition of
spoilage fungi while preserving yeast functionality essential for bread fermentation.
To evaluate resistance potential, whole-genome sequencing of resistant fungal and yeast strains
was performed. Results showed limited adaptation in spoilage fungi and a moderate increase in
yeast tolerance, supporting the industrial feasibility of mycosubtilin.
This study demonstrates mycosubtilin’s robust antifungal activity, thermal stability, and
compatibility with bakery products, offering an effective and sustainable alternative to synthetic
preservatives. By integrating fundamental and applied research, this work advances the potential
adoption of lipopeptide biosurfactants, paving the way for cleaner, safer, and more sustainable
preservation strategies in the bakery industry
Platelet ITIM-containing receptors
No full textPlatelets express several immunoreceptor tyrosine-based inhibitory motif (ITIM)-containing receptors which regulate platelet production, platelet activation, adhesion, and thrombus stability, and influence both haemostatic and immune responses. In this chapter we detail the structure, expression, ligands and signalling pathways of this family of receptors, and cover their biological relevance in platelets and megakaryocytes. PECAM-1, G6b-B, and LAIR-1 (megakaryocyte-specific) modulate platelet activation. CEACAM-1/2 and LILRB2 balance platelet adhesion and immune interactions. TLT-1 enhances platelet aggregation post-activation, in addition to a role in cancer progression. The downstream signalling proteins, SHP-1 and SHP-2, are essential for the inhibitory signalling of these receptors, and their loss can lead to platelet hyperactivation, increasing thrombotic risk. In this chapter we also discuss strategies for therapeutic targeting and fine-tuning of platelet reactivity. Collectively, this family of receptors play distinct roles in platelet function and regulation, presenting novel opportunities for treatments