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Downscaled CMIP6 future climate projections for New Zealand: climatology and extremes
No full textDownscaled climate projections provide regionally relevant information for climate adaptation and planning
purposes. Updated climate projections (~12-km) are presented here for the New Zealand region, downscaling 6
global climate models (GCMs) from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6) under a high emissions
scenario (SSP3-7.0). Three regional climate models (RCMs) are used to explore differences when downscaling
select GCMs. For end of century projections (relative to 1986–2005), the national multi-model annual mean
warming is 3.1◦ C (model range 2.0–3.8◦C) across downscaled simulations. Downscaling generally enhances
warming over New Zealand relative to the GCMs, with the largest increases across high-elevation regions. There
can be important differences in the projections across RCMs, including at national scales for temperature and
across local-to-regional scales for precipitation. Averaged across models, annual extreme heatwaves become
3–5◦C hotter for most regions. More frequent, intense, and longer duration meteorological drought is projected
across northern and eastern regions of both islands. In terms of model uncertainty based on sign agreement,
while summer mean precipitation projections carry the largest uncertainty, projections of summer meteoro-logical drought and precipitation extremes can be made with greater confidence. These results provide a foun-dation for further targeted regional climate change impact and adaptation studies
Bio-stabilised adobe bricks: enhancing strength and durability with glycoproteins
No full textEarth is a green building material with very low embodied energy and almost zero greenhouse gas emissions. However, it lacks strength and durability when used without stabilisation. By incorporating responsibly sourced stabilisers, it is possible to enhance the strength of this material. In this study, adobe bricks stabilised using bio-inspired stabilisers were investigated. This research was inspired by the high strength and durability of termite mounds, exploring the stabiliser behind such robust natural constructions. Termites build their mounds by incorporating a glycoprotein from their saliva to cement the sub-soil particles together. Biomimicry has been employed to investigate the potential use of the termites' construction stabiliser in adobe bricks. Three glycoproteins from meat and fish industry waste were identified as potential stabilisers in adobe bricks. Bovine serum albumin (BSA) from cows' blood, mucin from the porcine stomach, and gelatine from cold-water fish skin were the three stabilisers used in this study. Two soils were used to prepare adobe bricks for testing. The primary soil used in this study was from Devon in the United Kingdom (UK). The second soil was obtained from the Mayo neighbourhood in Khartoum, Sudan, and used only in key tests. Adobe bricks were made and stabilised with different concentrations of these bio-inspired stabilisers. Controlled unstabilised adobe bricks were used for comparison. The bricks were tested for their unconfined compressive strength. The main conclusion of this study is that BSA has proven its potential to be used as a stabiliser in earth construction. Using 0.5% BSA resulted in a 17% and 41% increase in the unconfined compressive strength of the British and Sudanese adobe bricks, respectively. In addition, using 5% BSA resulted in a 203% and 97% increase in the unconfined compressive strength of the British and Sudanese adobe bricks, respectively. The compressive strength of BSA-stabilised adobe bricks is higher than that of earth bricks stabilised using 5% cement and 5% lime reported in the literature. Furthermore, the compressive strength of the 5% BSA-stabilised adobe bricks is higher than the lower recommended compressive strength for the hollow concrete blocks in the UK. Hence, these BSA-stabilised adobe bricks could substitute hollow concrete blocks to construct internal walls. The other stabilisers tested did not significantly improve the unconfined compressive strength of the adobe bricks. The study underscores the value of biomimicry and proposes glycoproteins as viable natural stabilisers in earth construction, with further recommendations for in-depth research to optimise application methods and formulations
Investigating the effects of dietary flavonoid supplementation on mood and cognition in the postpartum
Get PDFDiet has gained increasing attention for its crucial role in supporting mental health and overall
wellbeing. Among its many components, phytochemicals such as flavonoids have emerged as key
contributors to health, with growing evidence indicating their potential to reduce the prevalence of
mood disorders. The postpartum period is a particularly vulnerable time, marked by significant
changes in mood and cognition. Rates of mood disorders often rise within the first year after
childbirth, especially among mothers. Access to conventional treatments during this period may be
limited, highlighting the need for accessible, and cost-effective interventions such as dietary flavonoid
supplementation. Prior research has shown that dietary flavonoids can improve anxiety and quality of
life during the first postpartum year. However, it remains unclear if these benefits extend to fathers or
whether the timing of supplementation influences its effectiveness. Additionally, although flavonoids
have been linked to cognitive enhancements in various groups, it is unknown whether these effects
hold during the postpartum period, when the brain undergoes notable structural and functional
adaptations.
The current work aims to deepen understanding of dietary flavonoids’ effects in postpartum parents.
Following a 2-week flavonoid supplementation in mothers 0–6 months postpartum, reductions in
postpartum depression symptoms were observed, though fathers did not engage effectively. An earlier
postpartum intervention, starting within four days of delivery for 30-days was then investigated,
revealing improvements in executive function and fewer subjective cognitive complaints, while mood
outcomes showed no significant change. Furthermore, acute supplementation with anthocyanin-rich
wild blueberries in the 0–6 month postpartum period improved verbal and working memory in both
mothers and fathers, though without additional mood benefits. This work therefore provides novel
insights into the benefits of dietary flavonoid supplementation to this population, and evidence to
suggest ideal timepoints to supplementation, for a population who may uniquely benefit from a cost-effective and accessible intervention
Modelling wildfire occurrences and their present and future patterns of variability over the contiguous United States
Get PDFWildfires are an intrinsic part of the Earth system, affected by people, vegetation and climate.
However, extreme fire years and their impacts on people are of increasing concern.
Understanding wildfire frequency is challenging across timescales, both due to stochasticity in
individual wildfire occurrences and because significant climate variability in fire weather
conditions is poorly sampled by the short observational record. This thesis characterises
patterns in wildfire occurrence over the contiguous United States of America (USA) accounting
for these two sources of uncertainty. First, developing a probabilistic model to account for the
randomness of individual wildfire events. And second, using a large ensemble (LE) to account
for the wider distribution of possible driving conditions in a reference (2000-2009) and future
(+2°C) climate. Mean annual wildfire occurrences are projected to increase with climate
change, though variability between fire years increases at a faster rate. An ensemble of model
training runs and the LE application of the wildfire occurrence model enabled key drivers of
daily and annual wildfire frequency to be found. Vegetation productivity was a key effect at
both timescales, and an increasing control on variability in annual wildfire occurrences due to
the emerging limitation of fuel availability on wildfire likelihood in dry regions of the USA.
Climate variability is partially predictable from climate modes, which have been linked to
increased wildfire in some regions. Multiple modes were found to have widespread, statistically
significant associations with annual USA wildfire patterns, with these associations mostly
strengthening in response to future climate change. This thesis advances wildfire occurrence
modelling and quantification of interannual wildfire variability using LEs, both useful to global
wildfire models. It is the first study to quantify the spatially varying effect of climate modes on
USA wildfire likelihood, of potentially major utility in projecting seasonal fire danger
Analyses of the ancient Chinese report on the total solar eclipse in 709 BCE: implications for the contemporaneous earth’s rotation speed and solar cycles
No full textTotal solar eclipses have occasionally left their footprints on human history for millennia, serving as spot references for the Earth’s rotation speed and the solar cycle variations in the past. The earliest datable accounts with explicit mention date back to 709 BCE (hereafter −708) in ancient Chinese records, although the observational site and date were documented differently in previous studies. This study revisits the source reports and confirms the explicit mentions of the eclipse totality and a later addendum concerning the yellowish structure that has been traditionally associated with the K-corona “above and below” the eclipsed Sun. Archeological evidence allows us to revise the coordinate of Qūfù, the observational site, to N35°36′, E116°59′, in contrast to the previous studies. This location contradicts the recent Δ T spline curve, revising the Δ T constraint in −708 to 20,264 s ≤ Δ T ≤ 21,204 s and modifying other Δ T constraints from the eighth and sixth centuries BCE. The later addendum regarding the possible coronal structure requires a philological caveat on the source provenance, although it corroborates well with the recent solar cycle reconstruction. During the total solar eclipse, the solar disk was inclined at ≈58° from the local zenith at Qūfù, locating the possible coronal streamer belts at heliographic latitude ≈+32° ± 45° and −32° ± 45°. Our result broadly agrees with the inclination and width of the streamer belt reconstructed from the recent estimate of open solar flux based on radiocarbon data in the first millennium BCE and offers possible independent support for the recent solar cycle reconstruction in the late eighth century BCE
The Arabian Beckett: the influence of Samuel Beckett’s plays on modern Arabic theatre
No full textThis thesis explores the reception of Samuel Beckett’s drama, examining how critics
and playwrights in the Arab world have interpreted his plays over time. The thesis opens with
an examination of initial reactions to Absurdism, the idea under which Beckett’s work seems
to have entered Arab Theatre, focusing principally on Tawfiq Al-Hakim’s attempts to create
Absurdist plays rooted in Arabic culture. This study presents an exemplary instance of
Beckett’s influence through the parallel reading of Beckett's and Al-Hakim’s absurdist plays.
This groundwork encouraged other Arab playwrights, who then showcased a stronger
influence from Samuel Beckett’s dramas in their own Absurdist creations. The thesis
considers Beckett’s direct influence on the dramatists Salah Abdel-Sabour and Yusuf Idris
from Egypt, along with Saadallah Wannous and Yousef Al-A’ani from the Levant. The thesis
also traces the shift in Arab critical and theatrical engagement with Beckett’s work from
Esslin’s to politically charged interpretations. It shows how his plays have been
reappropriated to critique authoritarianism and political repression, highlighting the
adaptability of global theatre within specific cultural and political contexts
Stressed is desserts spelt backwards
Get PDFUnderstanding what causes emotional eating has been a great research interest for several
decades, as unhealthy food consumption poses detrimental health consequences. Some have
argued that control of eating relies on limited cognitive resources, which may be depleted under
negative affect. On the other hand, recent theories argued that emotional eating reflects a
motivational shift, in which people might prioritise feeling better over long-term health goals.
However, these theories have not been sufficiently tested by controlled experimental designs,
whilst evidence has been inconsistent. Therefore, we conducted three sets of experimental studies
to test these contrasting accounts. Firstly, we tested whether negative affect causes impairments
in inhibitory control by inducing negative, positive and neutral affect in food and non-food
inhibition tasks. We found that negative affect does not deplete cognitive resources for inhibition;
however, it selectively impairs inhibition of unhealthy food for restrained eaters and those with
emotion regulation difficulties. Secondly, we tested whether a temporary motivational state to eat
healthy as opposed to enjoy food impacts inhibitory control ability. We found that participants
were better able to inhibit unhealthy food when in a health-oriented motivational state compared
to when in an indulgence state. Lastly, we tested whether people eat emotionally because they
believe some unhealthy food is the only available way to improve their negative affect. We found
that wanting to feel better resulted in an increased tendency to approach unhealthy food that was
believed to improve mood, and decreased inhibition of this food for non-dieters only. Dieters,
however, showed difficulties learning that some food may not improve their mood. Overall, we
provided experimental evidence that emotional eating reflects a shift in priorities to feel better
and to indulge, and impaired inhibition under negative affect reflects emotion regulation
difficulties rather than general depletion of cognitive resources
Countering state-sponsored proxies: designing a robust policy
Get PDFSubversive activities by state-sponsored proxies – military and non-military non-state actors (NSAs) – are a staple in the strategic toolbox of grey zone operators. They are neither new, nor rare. What is more, sponsor-proxy relations are on the rise. This report addresses the following question: Given the likelihood of state-sponsored NSA attacks in the future, how should states approach strategies for countering proxies and their state sponsors? First, the paper presents an overview of non-state actors as proxies. Second, it discusses the prevalence and variation of NSA-state relationships as a corrective to academic and policy approaches that take a narrow and simplistic view of NSA sponsorship. Third, it shows how a more robust understanding of the phenomenon allows for a more nuanced engagement with the deterrence playbook. To this end, the paper focuses on the situation, self, solutions, and synchronization that the published playbook defines and presents under the moniker of the ‘4S model’
Cluster internationalization to tax havens by multinational enterprises: an exploration of imitative behaviour
Get PDFThis paper explores the factors that influence the internationalization of multinational enterprises (MNEs) from clusters, with a particular focus on the use of tax havens. Institutional Theory is used as our theoretical framework, with mimetic isomorphism highlighted as a primary mechanism connecting cluster characteristics to MNE internationalization. By analyzing firm-level data for the UK and Germany from 2008-2019, we show that institutional features within clusters—such as imitation, the co-location of professional services, and industrial concentration—facilitate this form of internationalization. Furthermore, the findings improve research on cluster internationalization, indicating that the imitation effect is amplified by firm leadership and experience