62880 research outputs found
Sort by
Application of family stress theory: predicting wellbeing by demands, resources and perceptions among caregivers of older adults
Get PDFFamily caregivers of older adults are at risk of high care burden and reduced quality of life. Existing research and practices had primarily focused on the caregiving dyad. However, it is often observed that multiple family members are involved in caregiving for older adults. We applied family stress theory to understand family caregiving and examined how care demands, resources, and perceptions are associated with and predict caregiver well‐being. Participants in this study were low‐income family caregivers who received caregiver allowance and provided care for an older adult with care needs in the community in Hong Kong. Two waves of data, including baseline data from 358 caregivers and 2‐year follow‐up data from a subsample of 93 caregivers, were collected. We used hierarchical regression to predict care burden and quality of life at baseline and follow‐up, respectively, by care demands, resources, and perceptions after controlling for the context of care. Results show that additional caregiving roles, quality of relationship with the older adult, and satisfaction with family support were associated with care burden and quality of life at baseline. Predictors of lower care burden at 2‐year follow‐up were discontinuation of additional caregiving roles, increase in size of caregiving family, and the use of domestic helper. Applying family stress theory to understand the caregiving process reveals the significance of additional caregiving roles, the involvement of multiple caregivers, and caregivers' perceptions about family support in enhancing caregiver well‐being, underscoring the need to focus on these factors when designing and implementing caregiver support services
Consistency of interest mediates the positive relationship between growth mindset and presence of meaning in life among Hong Kong adolescents: A cross‐lagged panel study
Get PDFMeaning in life protects individuals from mental distress during social upheaval. We posit that a growth mindset and consistency of interest positively predict meaning in life during social upheaval. The present research tested the hypothesis that among adolescence living in a period of social upheaval, the presence of a growth mindset (the belief in malleability of valued personal attributes) positively predicts persistent engagement in purpose‐congruent interests (consistency of interest), which in turn positively predicts the feeling that life is meaningful (presence of meaning in life). To test this hypothesis and to clarify the temporal causal connections among growth mindset, consistency of interest, and presence of meaning in life, we conducted a 3‐wave longitudinal cross‐lagged panel study with 275 Hong Kong adolescents between late 2017 and early 2020, which covered a period of social upheaval. As hypothesized, having a growth mindset predicted meaning in life two years later through the mediating effect of consistency of interest. These findings extended past findings by identifying a new causal pathway for the temporal causal effects of a growth mindset on the presence of meaning in life over two years in a population and context with high vulnerability to mental distress. (193 words)
Exploring the dependence of spectral properties on canopy temperature with ground-based sensors: implications for synergies between remote-sensing VSWIR and TIR data
Get PDFSpaceborne instruments have an irreplaceable role in detecting fundamental vegetation features that link physical properties to ecological theory, but their success depends on our understanding of the complex dynamics that control plant spectral properties—a scale-dependent challenge. We explored differences between the warmer and cooler areas of tree canopies with a ground-based experimental layout consisting of a spectrometer and a thermal camera mounted on a portable crane that enabled synergies between thermal and spectral reflectance measurements at the fine scale. Thermal images were used to characterise the thermal status of different parts of a dense circular cluster of containerised trees, and their spectral reflectance was measured. The sensitivity of the method was found to be unaffected by complex interactions. A statistically significant difference in both reflectance in the visible (VIS), near-infrared (NIR), and shortwave infrared (SWIR) bands and absorption features related to the chlorophyll, carotenoid, and water absorption bands was found between the warmer and cooler parts of the canopy. These differences were reflected in the Photochemical Reflectance Index with values decreasing as surface temperature increases and were related to higher carotenoid content and lower Leaf Area Index (LAI) values of the warmer canopy areas. With the increasingly improving resolution of data from airborne and spaceborne visible, near-infrared, and shortwave infrared (VSWIR) imaging spectrometers and thermal infrared (TIR) instruments, the results of this study indicate the potential of synergies between thermal and spectral measurements for the purpose of more accurately assessing the complex biochemical and biophysical characteristics of vegetation canopies
High-integrity forests are critical for forest specialist birds
Get PDFAim: Efforts to retain and restore forest integrity—the degree to which a forest's structure and function are not modified by humans—are increasingly underpinning global biodiversity conservation efforts. However, there is still much uncertainty around how species respond to changes in forest integrity. Geographically variable responses would have consequences for conservation planning assessments and targeted conservation action. Our goal was to quantify the relationship between forest integrity and bird diversity. Location: Global; 98 bioregions. Time Period: 2017–2020. Major Taxa Studied: Birds. Methods: By integrating global‐scale spatially explicit forest landscape integrity data with a citizen science bird dataset, we provide the first empirical assessment of the relationship between forest integrity and bird diversity. Results: We found that both species richness and abundance of forest specialists had a positive association with integrity. However, the relationship between forest integrity and bird diversity varied across bioregions, with bioregions at low latitudes tending to have more positive relationships between forest integrity and species richness. Of the 74 bioregions assessed, 64% had more than half of their species favouring high integrity forests. Main Conclusions: These results support calls for the targeted protection of the world's remaining high‐integrity forests but also showcase that consideration must be given to restoring forest integrity where possible
High-impact low-likelihood climate scenarios for the UK: background report
No full textThis report outlines the evidence used to define a series of high-impact low-likelihood climate scenarios for the UK. The scenarios consist of a narrative storyline and an accompanying illustrative quantitative characterisation. The scenarios themselves are described in more detail in the accompanying scenarios report.
The storyline approach provides a framework for the presentation and development of scenarios. The storylines and scenarios are based on theoretical analysis, interpretation of climate model output and observed historical experience. The scenarios are designed to complement the UKCP18 climate projections. The quantitative characterisation of each scenario can be updated as new evidence becomes available. The scenarios describe potential high-impact low-likelihood drivers of impact, rather than high-impact low-likelihood outcomes.
One set of scenarios describe transient changes in climate and sea level to 2100, outside the range of changes projected under ‘conventional’ climate scenarios either because the climate forcings or the climate system response are different. The scenarios are based on six storylines describing (i) accelerated climate change (a world with an increase in global average temperature considerably greater than 4oC above pre-industrial levels), (ii) a substantial reduction in planet-cooling aerosols, (iii) a series of major volcanic eruptions, (iv) enhanced amplification of changes in the Arctic leading to substantial circulation changes, (v) abrupt ocean circulation change, and (vi) enhanced sea level rise due to rapid melting of the Greenland and Antarctic Ice Sheets. Each narrative scenario storyline is accompanied by an indicative quantitative characterisation. The physical mechanisms behind each storyline are presented in this report, along with an assessment of the confidence of their implications for UK weather, climate and sea level. The transient scenarios provide a high-level picture of how future UK climate could be different to that implied by conventional UKCP18 climate projections.
The second set of scenarios describe plausible extreme monthly and seasonal anomalies, specifically extreme temperature, rainfall and windspeed. Each scenario is associated with a ‘backstory’ describing the driving climatic conditions. The scenarios also describe compound extreme months and seasons and sequences of extremes. Each scenario is expressed in quantitative terms as an anomaly from a long-term average and can be implemented at a range of spatial scales. The scenarios are developed using a combination of theoretical understanding of the drivers of extreme months and seasons in the UK, model simulations and empirical analysis based on observed climate data and a wide range of indicators of climatic variability. This set of scenarios allows an assessment of risks from plausible extreme events. The assumptions underpinning the scenarios are examined and justified in the report
Elevation-dependent climate change in mountain environments
No full textMountain regions show rapid environmental changes under anthropogenic warming. The rates of these changes are often stratified by elevation, leading to elevation-dependent climate change (EDCC). In this Review, we examine evidence of systematic change in the elevation profiles of air temperature and precipitation (including snow). On a global scale, differences between mountain and lowland trends for temperature, precipitation and snowfall are 0.21 °C century–1 (enhanced mountain warming), –11.5 mm century–1 (enhanced mountain drying) and –25.6 mm century–1 (enhanced mountain snow loss), respectively, for 1980–2020, based on averaging available gridded datasets. Regional analyses sometimes show opposite trend patterns. This EDCC is primarily driven by changes in surface albedo, specific humidity and atmospheric aerosol concentrations. Throughout the twenty-first century, most models predict that enhanced warming in mountain regions will continue (at 0.13 °C century–1), but precipitation changes are less certain. Superimposed upon these global trends, EDCC patterns can vary substantially between mountain regions. Patterns in the Rockies and the Tibetan Plateau are more consistent with the global mean than other regions. In situ mountain observations are skewed towards low elevations, and understanding of EDCC is biased towards mid-latitudes. Efforts to address this uneven data distribution and to increase the spatial and temporal resolution of models of mountain processes are urgently needed to understand the impacts of EDCC on ecological and hydrological systems
AI human avatars: opportunities and risks for UK businesses and services
Get PDFRecent advances in Generative AI have made it possible to create life-like human avatars that replicate a person’s voice, face and gestures with striking accuracy, through a process known as digital cloning. Once experimental, these technologies are now commercially available and have been increasingly used by UK businesses and public services since 2022. AI human avatars are increasingly used to enhance communication, training and customer interaction, driven by gains in efficiency, inclusivity and emotional resonance. Yet this rapid uptake raises complex legal, ethical and economic risks, from consent and misinformation to cybersecurity or labour displacement. As a high-reward, high-risk application of AI, the use of human avatars and digital cloning demands urgent and coordinated policy attention. This briefing maps emerging trends in AI human avatar use by UK businesses and services, describing key reported benefits and risks of the technology to support effective policy intervention. This briefing makes 4 policy recommendations to support the government's objective for economic growth and leadership in AI, set out by the AI Opportunities Action Plan and The UK’s Modern Industrial Strategy 2025. The text of the report is licenced under a CC BY-NC 4.0 licence. This does not apply to the images
Assessing the value of clustering convection‐permitting ensemble forecasts
Get PDFEnsembles provide a wealth of information to aid forecasters in their day‐to‐day operations, but with increasing ensemble size and complexity, there is rarely time to fully interrogate their outputs. Clustering ensemble members into distinct scenarios based on the co‐location of hazardous weather features has previously shown promise when applied to global ensemble outputs. However, it is currently unclear whether further value can be gained when applying clustering to convection‐permitting ensemble (CPE) outputs. This study compares precipitation clusters between the operational MOGREPS‐G driving ensemble and the nested MOGREPS‐UK CPE run at the (UK) Met Office during summer 2023. When applied over the UK domain, CPE clustering does not provide clear value compared to global ensemble clustering. Instead, clusters become increasingly similar with leadtime, strongly indicating that CPE clusters are most sensitive to the synoptic forcing common between the two ensembles and that the presence of convective‐scale detail has little influence. However, when focussed on a region impacted by hazardous convection, CPE clustering identified distinct precipitation scenarios and provided improved probabilistic value compared to driving‐ensemble clustering. Finally, by comparing clusters with radar observations, it is demonstrated that the fraction of members supporting a particular scenario is a reliable quantitative prediction of the probability that the given scenario will be the most accurate. We recommend that global ensemble clustering is sufficient over larger domains, while CPE clustering is most useful when applied at regional scales
The influence of climate variability on transatlantic flight times
Get PDFTransatlantic aviation is a major industry and even small flight time changes have major economic and environmental implications. While our ability to optimise these flights for background wind variations at day-to-day scales is excellent, at the longer timescales needed for sustainability planning and fuel cost hedging these capabilities are more limited. Here, we quantify the association between four climate indices (the El Niño-Southern Oscillation, the North Atlantic Oscillation, the Quasi-Biennial Oscillation and solar irradiance) and transatlantic flight times using thirty years of commercial flight data. This allows us to identify whether these indices can be used to identify systematic flight time shifts. We find that ENSO and the NAO are associated with statistically-significant changes in one-way flight times of up to 82.2 ± 3.5 min, and changes in round-trip times of 4.8 ± 0.5 and 4.0 ± 0.8 min respectively, while the QBO and TSI have weaker but significant effects. Together, these indices plus a linear trend explain up to 27 % of variation depending on season and direction, and are associated with month-to-month fuel cost & CO2 emission variations of up to 27MUSD & 120 kT for one-way trips and USD 5 million & 23 kT for round trips. We also show that westward, round-trip and non-winter-eastward flight times have increased by several minutes per decade since the 1990s. Our results provide the first observational quantitative basis for aviation fuel and carbon cost management at monthly and longer timescales
The archaeology of Iran from the Palaeolithic to the Achaemenid Empire
No full textSynthetic study of the archaeology of all of Iran from earliest times to the end of the Iron Age. This is the Persian translation of Matthews and Fazeli Nashli 2024