KeiO Academic Resource Archive

赤木完爾教授 [肖像]

オオイシ, ユタカ

Ōishi, Yutaka

大石, 裕

慶應義塾大学法学部教授

Professor of mass communication, Faculty of Law, Keio University

Fake news in journalism theory

Professor of political communication and journalism, Faculty of Law, Keio University

The linkage of political development theories and \u27communication and development\u27 models

奥付

タウク, ヌール

Tawk, Nour

                                      Keio University 
 
Thesis Abstract 
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Name: Nour Tawk  
Title of Thesis:  
 
Essays on Domestic and International Spillovers from Macroeconomic Policies 
 
Summary of Thesis: 
 
This dissertation focuses on the quantification of domestic and international spillovers from policies 
adopted in countries with systemically important financial sectors (also referred to as systemically 
important countries)0F 1, namely Japan and China, onto their respective economies, as well as 
Southeast Asia and the rest of the world. The thesis consists of five original chapters.  
 
Chapter One offers a detailed explanation of the Global VAR (GVAR) model, which is later 
employed in chapters Two, Three, and Four, as the tool for analysis of spillovers and the 
propagation of shocks.  
 
Chapter Two presents an empirical analysis to quantifying spillovers from the Bank of Japan’s 
Quantitative and Qualitative Easing (QQE) on emerging Asia. It uses a GVAR model of 29 
countries, using monthly data from years 2000 until 2016. This research contributes to the 
literature by being the first- to the best of our knowledge- to look at the impact of QQE on emerging 
Asia through unconventional monetary policy’s impact on stock prices, otherwise referred to in the 
literature as the “stock market channel”. The contribution of this research to the related literature 
is by its identification of shocks related to QQE: the model applies sign restrictions to distinguish a 
shock to equity prices caused by unconventional monetary policy, from a shock to equity prices 
caused by a standard financial boom. By doing so, it captures the spillovers of the stock market 
boom in Japan following QQE, domestically and internationally. Finally, this empirical analysis 
expands the body of literature regarding the impact of quantitative easing from Japan, which is 
limited compared to the literature concerning the US’ quantitative easing. The exercise shows that 
                                                   
1 Systematically important countries (also referred to as systemic countries in this thesis) are defined as countries with 
systematically important financial sectors. As of 2013, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) identifies 29 countries as 
having systematically important financial sectors, based on the size and interconnectedness of each country’s financial 
sector (Viñals et al., 2010). This group of countries covers approximately 90 percent of the global financial system. 
Included in the list of countries that are deemed systemically important are China, Japan, member countries of the euro 
area, and the United States.    
                                      Keio University 
 
despite an appreciation of their currencies vis-à-vis the Japanese yen, the impact on emerging 
Asia’s GDP tended to be positive and significant in the short-run. The results suggest that the 
positive effect of the increase in equity prices, more than offset any negative exchange rate spillover 
due to expenditure switching from domestic demand to Japanese goods. They also suggest that 
spillovers from QQE might have worked mainly through the impact of the stock market channel, 
rather than through the traditional interest rate channel. 
 
Chapter Three uses a GVAR model for 34 countries spanning from 1979Q1 to 2015Q4, to proxy the 
impact of China’s rebalancing from an investment-driven to a consumption-driven economy, on a 
global, regional, and country level. Its contribution to the literature is by creating a proxy to the 
rebalancing, by using country-specific investment and consumption data to simulate the effect of 
the decline of China’s investment, and then the increase of its consumption, on the rest of the world. 
By doing so, the research differentiates itself from the existing literature, which mainly quantifies 
the rebalancing through a negative shock to China’s GDP. In that context, this research explores 
the impact of the rebalancing on a country through the changes in both GDP components. Through 
this exercise, we mainly observe that commodity prices are negatively impacted not only from a 
negative China investment shock, but also following a positive China consumption shock. The 
results also suggest that, except for commodity exporters, the losses following a negative shock to 
China’s investment are somewhat offset by a positive shock to China’s consumption. The results 
also show the Asia Pacific region specifically benefits from the rebalancing, due to the relocation of 
capital flows to industrialized countries, and the overall increase in demand for consumption goods.  
 
Chapter Four extends the models of chapters Two and Three to compare the propagation of shocks 
from China and other systemic economies to the Middle East and North Africa (MENA). The 
academic contribution of this chapter consists of building a large GVAR model for 47 economies, 
including 13 countries in the MENA (and 18 oil exporting countries in total), and extends the 
coverage of the data until 2014Q4. The chapter then looks at the impact of systemic shocks on the 
MENA and includes a simplified model which accounts to the demand and supply of oil in the 
region. It also investigates, using time-varying weights, how the propagation of shocks from 
systemic countries may have evolved over time. This chapter adds to the limited body of research 
which analyses spillover shocks to the MENA region, and is the first to offer such an extended and 
updated dataset, to the best of our knowledge. In addition, this research is the first to use 
country-specific consumption and investment data to investigate the impact of China’s rebalancing 
on the MENA region. Studies of shocks relating to the MENA region are scarce, mainly because of 
data availability. Through this study, we hope to offer a dataset which can be used for future 
research, to study the many aspects of the propagation of shocks in this region. The results suggest 
that while China’s linkages have deepened with the MENA region, negative output shocks from the 
United States have a larger impact, due to the US’ systemic role in the oil market. The findings also 
suggest the adverse effects of the decline in China’s investment demand are less pronounced on oil 
                                      Keio University 
 
importers in the MENA, due to the decline in oil prices and an increase in China’s consumption 
demand.   
 
Chapter Five uses prefectural data to explore the potential impact on wage dynamics of the 
minimum wage increase policy in Japan, which was implemented in 2016 as an indirect means to 
combat deflation. This study offers a comparative analysis on how a one percent increase in the 
minimum wage can affect the average wages of full-time working men and women, respectively. 
This research is the first, to the best of our knowledge, to use a panel dataset on a prefectural level, 
for both genders, to analyze the impact of an increase in the minimum wage on the wage 
distribution of both men and women in Japan. By doing so, we highlight the distinct aspects for 
each gender of the pass-through from the minimum wage to the average wage, as well as different 
trends in the labor market of each group. The main result is that stepping up minimum wage 
growth from 2 to the planned 3 percent per year could raise wage growth by 0.5 percent annually. 
Other results suggest that the pass-through of the minimum wage to average wages is larger for 
men than for women, due to other tax and wage policies. The underlying conclusion is that given 
Japan’s need for income policies to generate vigorous wage-price dynamics, reflecting the 2 percent 
inflation target, one policy implication of this finding is that, while the minimum wage plan will 
help boost wages, it should  be accompanied by other, more “unorthodox” income policies, such as a 
“soft target” for private sector wage growth through a “comply -or-explain mechanism” for wage 
growth and increases in public wages in line with the inflation target.  
 
 
 


Essays on domestic and international spillovers from macroeconomic policies (要旨)

タジマ, タカユキ

Tajima, Takayuki

田島, 敬之

Shintai katsudō gaidorain no ninchi chishiki to shintai katsudō zai kōdō : chiiki zaijū kōreisha ni okeru ōdanteki kanren no kentō to bunken rebyū ni yoru kenkyū kadai no teian (yōshi)

Shintai katsudō gaidorain no ninchi chishiki to shintai katsudō zai kōdō : chiiki zaijū kōreisha ni okeru ōdanteki kanren no kentō to bunken rebyū ni yoru kenkyū kadai no teian (honbun)

シオザキ, ジュンコ

Shiozaki, Junko

汐﨑, 順⼦

Kodomo-bunko : children\u27s private libraries in Japan

表紙

ハラダ, アキコ

Harada, Akiko

原田, 晶子

Civic donations and fabrica ecclesiae in a late medieval German city : the activities of nuremberg\u27s lay churchwarden

Keio University

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