334 research outputs found
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Through a glass darkly: Deciphering the impact of oil price shocks
No full textIn order to examine if the impact of oil price shocks depends on the structure of an economy, a vertical (VSC) and a horizontal (HSC) long-run supply curve identification are successively imposed on a three variable VAR with Indian time series data. While core inflation is measured with the VSC, the HSC requires a new concept of demand-driven inflation: Residual (demand) inflation, which gives the impact of short and medium run demand shocks on inflation. Core and residual inflation are both estimated. The data favors the HSC, but both identifications imply that policy demand squeeze aggravated international oil price shocks
The Structure of inflation, information and labour markets: Implications for monetary policy
No full textThe paper gives a simplified version of a typical dynamic stochastic open economy
general equilibrium models used to analyze optimal monetary policy. Then it outlines
the chief modifications when dualism in labour and in consumption is introduced to
adapt the model to a small open emerging market such as India. The implications of
specific labour markets, and the structure of Indian inflation and its measurement are
examined. Simulations give the welfare effects of different types of inflation targeting.
Flexible CPI inflation targeting (CIT) without lags works best, especially if the
economy is more open. But volatile terms of trade make the supply curve even steeper
than in a small open economy despite specific labour markets and higher labour
supply elasticity. Exchange rate intervention limits the volatility of the terms of trade
and improves outcomes, making the supply curve flatter. As long as such intervention
is required, domestic inflation targeting (DIT) continues to be more robust and
effective. The welfare losses from the lags in CPI, which prevent the implementation
of CIT, are low as long as the dualistic structure dominates. As the economy becomes
more open, however, the loss from not being able to use CIT rises. The lags in CPI
therefore need to be reduced, making its future use possible
Trade liberalization, poverty and food security in India
No full textThis paper attempts to assess the impact of trade liberalization on growth, poverty, and food
security in India with the help of a national level computable general equilibrium (CGE)
model. It shows that GDP growth and income poverty reduction that might occur following
trade liberalization need not necessarily result in an improvement in the food security /
nutritional status of the poor. Evidence from simulations of (partial) trade reforms reflecting
a possible Doha-like scenario show that the bottom 30% of the population in both rural and
urban areas suffer a decline in calorie and protein intake, in contrast to the rest of the
population, even as all households increase their intake of fats. Thus, the outcome on food
security / status with regard to individual nutrients depends crucially on the movements in the
relative prices of different commodities along with the change in income levels. These results
show that trade policy analysis should consider indicators of food security in addition to
overall growth and poverty traditionally considered in such studies
Inculusive growth: What is so exclusive about it?
No full textIn the wake of the economic reform programme undertaken since 1991, distributional issues
have received considerable attention and policy concern. In pursuit of such concerns, the
government has worked out an approach to the Eleventh Five Year Plan, which lays
emphasis on, though without defining, a strategy of inclusive growth. In fact, this form of
pursuit of inclusive growth has become virtually a universal concern with even the UNDP
harping on it without knowing answers for what it calls a “million dollar question- what
inclusive growth is and how to achieve it?” This paper proposes to define inclusion/exclusion
for an outcome scenario on broad based growth from three different perspectives, viz.,
production, income, and consumption distribution. It also provides some illustrations based
on the National Accounts Statistics and the National Sample Survey consumer expenditure
distributions for the year 2004-05
A Critical review of economic analyses of religion
No full textRecent years have seen increasing interest in economic analyses of religion. We carry out a critical review of Economics of Religion (EoR) in this review essay. We find that on the one hand EoR has made a significant contribution to enhance our understanding of secular trappings of religion and to break the stranglehold of non-rational approach to religion. On the other it has failed systematically to address the core of religion, namely, belief in its purportedly supernatural basis. Furthermore the methodological foundations of EoR are far from settled. We identify the shortcomings of the literature and suggest remedial measures, wherever possible
Gender-based indicators in human development: Correcting for missing women
No full textGender Development Index and Gender Empowerment Measure are two gender-based
indicators provided by the United Nations Development Program. Population share of the
genders enter the formulation of these indicators in such a way that it favours the better
performing gender. This can lead to further additions to ‘missing women’. A correction is
proposed to capture this anomaly. This alternative satisfies an axiom of Monotonicity with its
two corollaries, that is, given attainments the measure maximizes at ideal sex ratio and
vanishes when one of the genders becomes extinct. An empirical illustration by taking life
expectancy data of countries is given
Rising food crisis and financial crisis in India: Impact on women and children and ways of tackling the problem
No full textThe objective of the study is to examine the impact of rising food prices and financial crisis on the
impact of women and children in India. It identifies the pathways for dealing with the effects of these
two crisis on households particularly women and children. It also outlines the desirable macro and
sectoral policies and measures, particularly in relation to social protection, which would mitigate the
negative effects of the crises and effectively protect households against them through a special focus on
the issues of nutrition, health, education and enhancement of child protection
Political competition and leadership in tax competition
No full textIn this paper, we introduce political competition in a sequential move tax competition game between two
regions for foreign owned mobile capital. It shows that in case of sequential move, political delegation
takes place only in the follower region, not in the leader region. Moreover, political competition need
not necessarily lead to higher tax rate in equilibrium. These results are in the sharp contrast to the
existing results
Energy in the development strategy of Indian households- the missing half
No full textThere is a growing consensus that universalisation of modern energy services is central to reducing
major elements of poverty and hunger, increasing literacy and education, and improving health care,
employment opportunities, and lives of women and children. In India, more than 700 million people
lack access to modern energy services for lighting, cooking, water pumping and other productive
purposes. Without these services people—most often women—are forced to spend significant amount of
their time and energy on subsistence activities. This acts as a barrier to the gender development.
Although the links between gender, poverty and energy have been studied by many authors, not many
have come out with practical solutions. The present paper explores the nexus between
gender-energy-poverty, highlights areas of gender concern, and suggests actions. We analyse how
women from rural areas and low income households are at the receiving ends of energy poverty. We
then analyse the roles of different stakeholders in universalizing modern energy services with specific
emphasis to women. We argue how women self help groups can be a vital link in large scale diffusion of
energy efficient and renewable technologies. The paper concludes with policy prescriptions of
sustainable development and gender empowerment through energy solutions
Financial sector legislation: (Random) Lessons from (Random) experiences
No full textDistinguished lecture on law and economic