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Growth and physiological responses of urban plant to elevated tropospheric ozone concentration
No full text城市化和工业化的快速发展对周边乃至区域环境质量造成了严重的负面影 响，尤其是机动车、工业排放等产生的氮氧化物含量的增加，导致对流层臭氧污 染加重，对农田、森林、草地生态系统带来不可逆转的负面影响。城市植物作为 城市结构中自然生产力的主体，在改善空气质量，调节城市微气候等方面具有不 可替代的重要作用，是人与自然和谐发展的桥梁。但目前臭氧现状并不利于城市 植被生态效益的发挥，已在多种植物叶片上发现了明显的臭氧伤害。基于实时监 测结果，2010年至 2014年植物生长季的平均臭氧浓度呈上升趋势：2010年为 67 ppb，2013和 2014年的分别为 74和 76 ppb。因此在臭氧浓度尚未得到有效控 制的情况下，研究绿化植物的形态响应及其引起相应响应的生理机制，将对景观 植物的培育、城市绿化过程中绿化植物的选择具有重要的科学意义和理论依据。 本研究采用开顶式气室对北京常见的景观绿化植物（黄栌、月季、串红、万 寿菊、矮牵牛、圆叶牵牛）进行田间原位臭氧熏蒸实验。通过测量供试植物色素 含量、光合生理、植物激素以及适应策略对臭氧胁迫的响应，探讨臭氧浓度升高 造成叶色变化的机理；明确造成生长响应差异的光合机制；探明造成不同植物氧 化伤害的内源激素变化以及不同供试植物适应臭氧胁迫的策略响应，为城市绿化 过程中绿化植物的选择提供基础数据，并为进一步培育耐 O3品种提供理论依据， 以期在臭氧浓度得不到有效控制的前提下最大程度保证城市化的可持续性。主要 研究结果如下： （1）叶片伤害：臭氧浓度升高对供试植物叶片叶脉间区域造成了明显的臭 氧伤害，伤害特征因植物种类的不同存在差异：黄栌叶脉间出现褐色斑点，随时 间延长，斑点融合、扩大、干枯；圆叶牵牛叶片则是出现白色斑点，逐渐融合形 成白色斑块，最终干枯；万寿菊和矮牵牛叶片则表现出黄化程度加剧。 以万寿菊为例定量分析了臭氧伤害程度和臭氧暴露之间的关系，受害叶片比 例以及叶片受害程度随暴露时间的延长而加剧，与臭氧累积值（AOT40）之间呈 显著正相关关系（P < 0.05）。但 NF+60和 NF+120处理下万寿菊首次出现臭氧 症状时的 AOT40值并不一致（NF+60，8.6 ppm∙h；NF+120，6.4 ppm∙h），意味 着臭氧伤害的形成除与 AOT40有关外，可能还受臭氧峰值及其频率的影响。 （2）生长特性：臭氧胁迫对植物横向生长的影响大于纵向生长：黄栌、月 季、串红、万寿菊基径增长量的降低幅度分别为 19.1-32.4%，15.3-29.4%， 12.8-22.9%，和 7.2-46.8%；株高生长因植物种类表现出不一致的规律，但其受抑 程度小于基径。臭氧浓度升高推迟了花期长的植物达到最大花径所需要的时间， 因植物种类可延长 4-15天不等。花径与花生物量之间存在明显正相关关系（万 寿菊：P = 0.0089；矮牵牛：P = 0.0521），故而推测臭氧主要通过影响花径大小 抑制花生物量的形成。 （3）生物量及其分配：臭氧浓度升高抑制了敏感植物生物量的形成（黄栌： 14.3-43.8%，串红：2.7-3.4%，万寿菊：8.3-40.4%，矮牵牛：10.6-34.1%），同时 改变了内在冠根比大的植物的生物量分配，且内在冠根比越大，生物量越趋于分 配于地上部。 （4）光合生理特性：基于生物量响应，黄栌和万寿菊被归为臭氧敏感品种， 源于其各时期光合性能明显受抑；月季被归为耐臭氧品种，源于其前期较高的光 合性能。引起敏感植物光合性能下降的因素因植物种类不同存在差异：CO2由气 室向羧化位点的扩散过程受抑是造成黄栌光合性能下降的主要原因；万寿菊叶片 光合性能下降则是由于其光反应和暗反应过程均受到抑制。而月季表现出较高的 光合速率是由于其具有高效的暗反应过程。 （5）激素响应：臭氧浓度升高对供试植物造成了细胞水平上的氧化伤害， 一方面促进了丙二醛的累积，并加剧了其累积的程度；另一方面加速了生长旺盛 期可溶性蛋白的降解。但造成相似氧化伤害的激素响应因植物种类不同而存在差 异：万寿菊氧化伤害的形成主要是由于茉莉酸含量降低造成的保护功能下降；矮 牵牛氧化伤害的形成则是由于水杨酸累积引起的直接伤害；圆叶牵牛氧化伤害的 形成既有水杨酸累积的直接伤害又源于茉莉酸保护功能的下降。 （6）策略响应：植物可通过改变自身生理特性以适应高浓度臭氧环境，如 气孔大小调节以及抗氧化物质的合成：臭氧浓度升高降低了黄栌（臭氧敏感品种）、 月季（耐臭氧品种）以及万寿菊（臭氧敏感品种）的气孔导度，三种供试植物分 别下降了 32.3-56.0%、8.8-31.4%和 26.4-64.1%，但臭氧吸收通量却明显增加了 147.0-317.6%、162.9-189.0%和 104.8-145.6%，这主要是由于臭氧吸收通量的决 定因子是外界臭氧浓度（两者具有明显的正相关关系），而与气孔导度没有相关 性；臭氧浓度升高促进了月季和万寿菊叶片 ASA合成，与月季不同的是万寿菊 叶片氧化还原状态降低，即氧化态转化为还原态 ASA的过程受到抑制，这可能 是其不同于月季臭氧抗性的主要原因。臭氧处理后无论是耐臭氧的月季还是臭氧 敏感的黄栌和万寿菊，与 ASA反应后残留臭氧量明显高于对照处理。意味着单 一的 ASA体系并不能解释不同植物之间的臭氧抗性差异，需进一步量化其他抗 氧化指标与臭氧之间的关系。 因此，基于叶片和生物量响应，月季被归为耐臭氧品种，可优先选作高浓度 臭氧环境中的城市绿化树种。月季叶片具有高效的生物化学过程以确保其光合同 化能力不受影响，因此可作为培育抗臭氧品种的参考植物。Rapid development of urbanization and industrilization gave rise to severely adverse impact on local air quality, which even spread out the larger region in all directions. In particular, the increase in NOx concentration generated from motor vehicle and industry resulted in increase of tropospheric ozone (O3) concentration, leading to inevitably negative effect on crops, forest and grassland (semi-natural vegetation). As the main body of natural productivity in urban system, urban plants play irreplaceable role in improving air quality, adjusting urban microclimate and so forth, whereas, current O3 concentration is bad for these ecological benefits, mean O3 concentration during plants‘ growing season from 2010 to 2014 was on the increase based on the real-time monitoring: 2010, 67 ppb; 2013, 74 ppb; 2014, 76 ppb, and severe O3 injury has already appeared. Therefore, it is necessary to comprehend morphological responses and physiological mechanisms of urban plants in face of rising O3 concentration, which will provide theoretical foundation for selecting and breeding O3-resistant species, evaluating landscaping and greening effect. In this study, open-top chambers (OTC) field experiment was conducted to investigate the O3 effect on ornamental plants (Cotinus coggygria, Rosa chinensis, Salvia splendens, Tagetes erecta, Petunia hybrida, Pharbitis purpurea) widely-used in Beijing by exposig them to three O3 levels: non-filtered air (NF), NF+60 and NF+120. During their own growing season, growth characteristics, leaf pigments, photosynthetic performance, oxidative damage, phytohormones and resistance strategies were determined to explore the mechanisms causing variation of leaf color, understand photosynthetic mechanism leading to growth difference, ascertain the endogenetic phytohormones responses resulting in various oxidative damage and find out the difference in resistance strategies among tested plant species. Theses results will be the theoretical foundation for selecting plants in urban landscape construction and breeding O3-resistant species. The following are the main consequences: (1) Leaf injury. Increased O3 concentrtion resulted in obviously intervenal injury to Cotinus coggygria, Tagetes erecta, Petunia hybrida, Pharbitis purpurea, and injury symptoms showed the difference among plant species. For Cotinus coggygria, brown stains appeared between veins, gradually covered and formed patches, finally withered. Pharbitis purpurea exhibited similar injury process to Cotinus coggygria, only except that white stains insteaded of brown ones. For Tagetes erecta and Petunia hybrida, yellowing occurred between the veins. Tagetes erecta was taken as example to analyze the quantitative relationship between injury degree and O3 exposure. Percentage of injured leaves and leaf injury index increased as exposure duration, showing positive correlation with AOT40 (P < 0.05). Whereas, O3 injury occurred firstly with different AOT40 under NF+60 (8.6 ppm∙h) and NF+120 treatments (6.4 ppm∙h), suggesting that except for AOT40, peak O3 concentration and its frenquency may also contribute to O3 injury. (2) Growth characteristics. Increased O3 concentration inhibited the radical growth of Cotinus coggygria, Rosa chinensis, Salvia splendens and Tagetes erecta, expressed as increment of stem diameter with 19.1-32.4%, 15.3-29.4%, 12.8-22.9% and 7.2-46.8% reduction, respectively. There‘s difference in response trend of plant height among tested plant species, showing positive response to elevated O3 or less inhibition than stem diameter. Elevated O3 retarded the timing of maximum flower diameter of flower plants with longer flower period, 4 to 15 days as species. There‘s consistent response to elevated O3 between flower biomass and flower diameter, and obviously positive correlation existed between them (P=0.0089 for Tagetes erecta; P=0.0521 for Petunia hybrida), suggesting that decrease of flower biomass may be attributed to inhibition of flower diameter when exposed elevated O3 concentration. (3) Plant biomass and allocation. Increased O3 concentration inhibited biomass formation of sensitive species (Cotinus coggygria, 14.3-43.8%; Salvia splendens, 2.7-3.4%; Tagetes erecta, 8.3-40.4%; Petunia hybrida, 10.6-34.1% ), and also altered the biomass allocation of species with higher inner shoot to root ratio. The higher shoot to root ratio is, the more allocation to shoot (P = 0.0202). (4) Photosynthetic performance. Based on biomass response, Cotinus coggygria and Tagetes erecta were regarded as O3-sensitive species, while Rosa chinensis was categorized into O3-resistant one. For O3-sensitive species, reasons of decrease in photosynthetic performance were ascribed to mesophyllic limitation—CO2 diffusion from substomatal chamber to carboxylation site (Cotinus coggygria), or impairement of both photochemical and biochemical processes (Tagetes erecta); for Rosa chinensis, higher-efficient biochemical process contributed to betterphotosynthetic performance. (5) Endogenous phytohormones response. O3 damage to Tagetes erecta, Petunia hybrida and Pharbitis purpurea also took place at the cellular level, expressed as accelerated and aggravated MDA accumulation, and accelerated protein degradation. There‘s distinct phytohormone responses causing ozixdative injury among plant species. For Tagetes erecta, protection capability of jasmonic acid (JA) was weakened; for Petunia hybrida, direct damage from salicylic acid (SA) accumulation was enhanced; for Pharbitis purpurea, both above occurred. (6) Adaptive strategies. Plants can adapt to elevated O3 environment by adusting stomata or synthesizing antioxidants. Increased O3 concentration decreased stomatal conductance, with reduction of 32.3-56.0% for Cotinus coggygria, 8.8-31.4% for Rosa chinensis and 26.4-64.1% for Tagetes erecta，while O3 flux increased by 147.0-317.6%, 162.9-189.0% and 104.8-145.6%, respectively. That‘s because O3 concentration, not stomatal conductance was the determinant factor (remarkably positive correlation existed between O3 flux and O3 concentration), suggesting that O3-induced stomatal closure could not control O3 amount into leaves effectively, and may be not an effective approach to reducing O3 injury. Increased O3 concentration facilitated to synthesize ASA of Rosa chinensis and Tagetes erecta, while for the latter, conversion process from oxidized to reduced ASA was inhibited, which may contribute to the difference in O3 sensitivity from Rosa chinensis. Based on residual O3 amount after reacting with ASA, potential of reactive oxygen species formation of both O3-resistant and O3-sensitive species was enhanced, indicating that ASA consideration alone cannot interpret the different O3 responses, and the relationship between O3 and other antioxidants should be further quatified. In conclusion, Rosa chinensis could be classified as O3-resistant species based on leaf morphology and biomass responses, and be selected preferentially for urban greening. Rosa chinensis may be further used as a reference due to its efficiently biochemical process when breeding O3-resistant species
生物多样性和生态系统服务评估指标与方法研究
No full text生物多样性和生态系统服务评估是生态系统管理与决策制定的重要依据。指标和数据、模型和情景是推动生物多样性与生态系统服务评估研究理论建设和方法集成的重要工具。但是，目前对生物多样性和生态系统服务评估的指标体系和方法的综合对比研究相对缺乏。因而，本研究对国内外相关文献和资料等进行了全面梳理，系统地评述了生物多样性和生态系统服务评估的概念框架、指标体系以及模型的研究现状和最新进展，论述了现有的评价指标在理论和实际应用方面存在的主要问题并提出了相应的解决方案；结合中国生物多样性与生态系统服务的特点，构建了适合中国实际应用的指标体系；另外，基于表征生物多样性状态和趋势的“物候”指标开展了案例研究。取得的主要研究结论如下：
（1）在“生物多样性—生态系统结构—功能—服务—人类福祉”级联式框架中，生物多样性对生态系统结构、功能—服务关系链的形成具有重要作用，并决定了生态系统过程的量级和稳定性；空间、时间、社会组织三个维度与生物多样性和生态系统服务密切相关。因此，为了更好地理解生物多样性丧失与生态系统功能、服务及人类福祉水平之间的关系，对于3个维度的任何一个维度内，都需要考虑尺度变化（升尺度或降尺度）对级联式框架组份内、间关系的影响。
（2）生物多样性和生态系统服务评估指标的基准准则应包括：在理论方面，明晰定义、分类与概念框架；在应用方面，选择基于生态系统属性的指标和替代指标、注入现有数据到共享数据库平台、以及加强替代指标的验证。在此基础上，整合研究的关键问题及其尺度界定、识别生物多样性、生态系统功能和服务指标之间的关系，开发满足区域实际需求的生物多样性和生态系统服务评估综合指标体系。
（3）在构建的中国生物多样性和生态系统服务评估指标和方法体系中，生物多样性评估指标体系包括压力、状态和响应三个类型，生态系统服务指标体系包括供给服务、调节服务和文化服务三个类型；每个类型下的指标包含主题指标和具体指标，总共包含14项生物多样性主题指标及其对应的16个具体指标，15项生态系统服务主题指标及其对应的18个具体指标。通过对评估所需数据进行可获得性分析发现，我国现有的数据基础不能满足生物多样性与生态系统服务的评估需求，有些数据需要通过文献查阅或采用试验或模型模拟手段获得。
综上，本研究主要完善了“生物多样性—生态系统结构—功能—服务”级联式框架，建立了生物多样性和生态系统服务评估指标的基准准则，构建了中国生物多样性和生态系统服务评估指标和方法体系，能够为将来我国开展生物多样性和生态系统服务综合评价以及不同区域之间的对比研究提供科学依据。Assessment of biodiversity and ecosystem services (BES) can provide important base for ecosystem management and decision making. Indicators and data, models and scenarios are major tools for the theoretical and methodological integration of BES. However, few detailed studies have conducted comprehensive analyses or comparisons of indicator systems or reported methods for evaluating BES. In this study, we review recent work regarding the conceptual framework, indicator systems, and various types of models and methods related to BES assessment; describe the main challenges of indicators for the BES assessment and provide suggestions for establishing a comprehensive indicator system; establish an indicator system of BES assessment suitable for use in China through a combination of characteristics of BES in China. In addition, case studies are carried out by using a phenological indicator, which describes the state and trend of biodiversity. Main results and conclusions obtained were listed below:
（1）In the cascade relations of biodiversity - ecosystem function - services - human well-being, biodiversity plays a basic role in shaping ecosystem structure and the correspondence between different categories of ecosystem functions and services, and determines the magnitude and stability of ecosystem processes; spatial, temporal, and social organizational scales are relevant to BES, thus the consequences of changing the scale of analysis (upscaling or downscaling) in any of these three dimensions for the interactions among biodiversity, ecosystem properties, and ecosystem services need to be carefully considered to better understand the impact of biodiversity loss on ecosystem function, services and human well-being.
（2）A conceptual approach for establishing an integral indicator system should include clarifying definitions of key terms and classification of indicators, establishing a robust conceptual framework with clear interactions among different components and indicators in theory, and selecting indicators and proxies based on ecosystem properties, streaming existing data into one platform, strengthening validation of proxies in applications. Based on this, the key questions, the temporal and spatial scales of assessment, the relationships between indicators for biodiversity, ecosystem function and ecosystem services should be identified to construct a comprehensive indicator system of BES assessment suitable for the regional actual situation.
（3）For the indicator systems and methods for evaluating BES in China, the indicator system for biodiversity evaluation is consists of three types of pressure, state, and response, while the indicator system for ecosystem services evaluation is consists of three types of provisioning services, regulating services, and cultural services; the indicator systems for evaluating BES include subject indicators and specific indicators, in total, fourteen subject indicators and sixteen specific indicators for biodiversity evaluation, while fifteen subject indicators and eighteen specific indicators for ecosystem services evaluation. Further analysis showed that existing data cannot meet the needs for evaluating BES, and some data would be accessed by literature review or by the means of simulation model or the survey method that the sample line combined with sample quadrate.
In generally, this study has perfected the cascade relations of biodiversity - ecosystem function - services - human well-being, constructed an explicit baseline system of indicators for evaluating BES, established an indicator system of BES assessment suitable for use in China. This can provide a scientific basis for conducting comprehensive analyses or comparisons of state and trends of BES among different regions in the future
Evaluation Method and Empirical Research of Urban Adaptive Capacity to Climate Change in China
No full text气候变化已成为 21世纪最大的挑战之一，对动植物、生态系统和人类健康
等诸多领域产生了各类影响。减缓与适应是全球应对气候变化的两大措施，其中
适应行动旨在通过提升人类系统对气候变化的适应能力从而降低气候变化产生
的影响和危害程度。城市作为人类活动和社会经济发展的主要聚集地，面临极端
降水、高温热浪、空气污染、沿海洪水、持续干旱和水资源短缺等一系列气候变
化影响时，遭受的人员伤亡和经济损失也更为严重，是气候变化相关灾害的高发
区和敏感区，提升城市适应气候变化能力已成为应对气候变化最重要的任务之一。
适应气候变化的研究与实践目前还处于起步阶段，城市适应只有框架性的领
域和原则，基于区域气候变化特征和针对城市个体的适应对策是进一步的研究方
向，而这首先需要城市尺度适应能力与制约的系统评估和分析作为基础。因此，
为了揭示中国城市适应气候变化能力特征及其限制因素，明确不同类型和不同区
域城市适应气候变化的关键问题，本研究首先分析了我国 1951-2011年降水、气
温、极端降水和极端气温的时空分布变化，总结了我国气候变化和极端气候的区
域特征和发展趋势；进而构建了基于 IPCC脆弱性评估框架和 SRPR模型相结合
的城市适应气候变化能力评估方法与指标体系；最后，采用集对分析的不确定性
评估方法对中国 286个地级市适应气候变化能力水平进行了评估，从暴露度-敏
感度-恢复力角度分析城市适应能力的限制因素，讨论总结了不同规模和气候分
区城市类群的适应特征，最后提出了我国城市适应能力提升的对策建议，以期为
我国城市气候变化适应能力的提升提供方法支持和决策参考。本文的主要结论如
下：
（1）1951-2011年气候变化的特征和趋势表现为：降水在我国东南和青藏高
原地区呈现持续增加的趋势，在东北等少部分地区有所减少；降水的季节分布一
定程度表现出向夏季和冬季集中的趋势。气温的时空变化表现为南方地区增温幅
度小，北方地区增温幅度大；尽管 60年间全国出现了一致性的增温变暖，但春
夏季节，部分地区反而呈现了降温趋势；这表明南北方的温度差距逐渐缩小，同
时四季温差也逐渐缩小。极端降水方面，强降雨日数和极强降雨量在南方地区呈
继续加强趋势，北方地区明显减少；东南地区的持续性降雨天数较高且有继续增
加的趋势，在西南部分地则有所减少；持续干燥区域集中分布于青藏高原、新疆
部分地区以及云南等地；干旱趋势在中部与西南地区有所增加，而在原先干旱集
中的区域有所减缓；可以看出青藏高原地区是持续干旱与持续降水都较集中的区
域。极端气温方面，冷持续指数在南方的分布时长高于北方地区，全国呈减少趋
势；热持续指数在西部增幅远高于东部地区，全国呈增长的趋势；冷夜日数呈减
少趋势，且中部和东南沿海地区的减少幅度最高；暖昼日数有增加的趋势，西部
增幅高于东部地区；总体表现为 60年来增温幅度较大，且东西部温差有缩小趋
势。
（2）基于 IPCC脆弱性评估和 SPRR模型，构建了基于暴露度、敏感度、
恢复力的我国城市适应能力评价框架，包括气候变化、波动，极端气候，气候灾
害，空气质量，脆弱人群，能源、水资源消费，人口密度，排水系统，交通运输
能力等要素的 22项评估指标。并将各项指标划分到适应能力“强”、“较强”，“中”、
“较差”和“差”五个等级中；基于熵值法对各项指标赋予权重。采用集对分析的不
确定性评价方法，对我国城市进行了气候变化的适应能力排序和等级划分。
（3）以 2010年为基准年，采用集对分析法对我国 286个地级市的气候变化
适应能力评估显示，我国东部城市适应能力整体高于西部地区。适应能力低值区
主要分布在三个区域，即西部的甘肃、陕西和河南地区；中部的湖南、江西、浙
江等地区；以及南部的广西、云南等地区。基于我国主要城市群分析的结果显示，
适应能力低的城市群包括中原城市群、关中城市群、兰西城市群、长江中下游城
市群、北部湾城市群、珠三角城市群；适应能力中等的区域主要集中在辽中南城
市群、滇中城市群和长江三角洲；适应能力较高的区域分布于成渝城市群、山东
半岛城市群和京津冀城市群。
（4）从城市规模和气候分区角度分析了城市适应气候变化能力的关键要素，
结果显示，城市规模角度来看，一方面超大城市、特大城市以及大城市适应气候
变化的能力整体上高于中小城市，这主要体现在大城市有较高的恢复力；另一方
面，城市规模越大，其敏感性也越高，气候变化可能带来的影响和损失也越大；
暴露度主要是受到城市区位因素的影响，南方城市的暴露程度要高于北方城市。
从所处的气候分区来看，干旱和半干旱区城市暴露度和敏感度不高，但应对气候
变化的恢复力水平很低，因此成为气候变化适应能力最低的区域；半湿润区的城
市，其气候变化暴露度和敏感度处于中等水平，而应对气候变化的恢复力较强，
气候变化适应能力较高；湿润区城市应对气候变化恢复力是最高的，但同时也面
临最高的气候暴露风险，而该区域城市适应气候变化敏感性与城市规模存在较显
著的关系，使得湿润区内城市气候变化适应能力存在较大的个体差异。Climate change has been regarded as one of the greatest challenge in 21st century, it is
an indisputable fact that climate change has led to various influences to the plants,
animals, ecosystems and human health. Mitigation and adaptation are two major
measures for tackling climate change, in which the adaptation one aims at minimizing
the impact of negative effects, and is much more urgent than the mitigation action,
especially in densely populated urban areas which are strongly influenced by climate
change. Urban area is the main gathering place for human activities and
socio-economic development, which also a high incidence area of climate disasters,
the casualties and economic losses due to climate changes are also more serious in
urban regions. Urban area faces extreme precipitation, high temperature and heat
waves, air pollution, coastal floods, persistent drought and water resource shortages,
and a series of climate change issues and effects. However, the current adaptation
research and practice are first getting started, which poses a great challenge to address
climate change in urban region. Enhancing urban adaptation to climate change has
become one of the most important tasks.
In order to comb and discuss the cliamte adaptability and its limitations in urban
areas, and reveal the key problems for different types and climate zone of urban areas,
our research evaluated adaptive capacity for 286 citys by set pair analysis (SPA) to
provide the scientific basis for policy makers. In this paper, firstly, we analyzed the
temporal-spatial distributions and change of precipitation, temperature, extreme
precipitation and extreme temperature in China from 1951 to 2011, to represent the
degree and risk of climate change and extreme weather. And then, we constructed our
urban adaptation climate change assessment framework based on the integration of
two methods of IPCC vulnerability assessment framework and SRPR model. The
framework contained 19 indicators and the set pair analysis method was selected to
evaluated urban adaptation climate change ability. At the same time, the limiting
factors of urban adaptability were analyzed from the perspective of exposure -
sensitivity - resilience, and we also analyzed the adaptation characteristics of citys for
different scale and climate zoning. Finally, we put forward suggestions for the
improvement of urban adaptability. The main conclusions are as follows:
(1) The temporal-spatial variation of precipitation and temperature showed that,
precipitation had increasing trend in southeastern and the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau,
while reduced in a few parts of the northeast; the seasonal distribution of precipitation
had a certain degree of concentration to summer and winter. The spatial-temporal
variation of the temperature showed that the warming amplitudes were small in the
south and were bigger in the north China; although it was consistent warming trends
in the past 60 years, the temperature difference between the north-south and four
seasons were gradually narrowed. The change of extreme precipitation showed that
R20 and R99p were increasing in the south area while the northern area was
obviously reduced, the R20 in the southeastern region was higher and there was still
an increasing trends; the dry areas were concentrated in the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau,
Xinjiang and parts of Yunnan, the drought trend increased in the central and
southwestern regions and slowed down in the areas where the original drought was
concentrated. It could be seen that the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau was a region where
persistent droughts and persistent precipitation were concentrated. For the extreme
temperature, the cold persistence index was longer in the south than that in the
northern region, and the trend was decreasing in the whole country. The thermal
sustainability index was increasing in national scale, and the increasing range was
much higher in the west than that in the eastern region; the number of warm days was
increasing, and the increase in western was higher than that in the eastern region.
Overall, it turned warming in the past 60 years, and the temperature difference
between the east and the west was narrowed.
(2) Based on the IPCC vulnerability assessment and the SPRR model, our
research constructed the evaluation framework of our urban adaptive capacity in
China,and selected 19 evaluation indexes from three elements of exposure-sensitivity-resilience. The uncertainty method of set pair analysis was
employed to assessing adaptation capacity of 286 citys in China for 2010.
(3) The adaptability of urban in eastern China was higher than that in the western
region. The low-lying areas of adaptability were mainly distributed in three regions:
Gansu, Shaanxi and Henan in the west; Hunan, Jiangxi and Zhejiang provinces in
central; and Guangxi and Yunnan in the southern. And 12 urban agglomerations were
selected to analysis regional adaptability capacity.
(4) From the perspective of urban scale and climate zoning, the results showed
that, on the one hand, the adaptability of megacity behemoths, megalopolis and
megacity were higher than that of medium-sized citys and small citys, this was mainly
reflected in the higher resilience of large cities. On the other hand, the greater the size
of the city, the higher the sensitivity, the possible impact of climate change and loss
were greater; the exposure was mainly affected by locational factors, and southern
urban was higher exposure than that in the northern. Seen from the climate zoning,
city in the drought and semi-arid had a low level of resilience to climate change, and
their exposure and sensitivity were high, they were areas with low climate change risk
and poor recovery capacity. This region owned the lowest adaptability capacity to
climate change. In the semi-humid area, the resilience of the urban was strong, its
exposure and sensitivity were also at a moderate level, and the ability to adapt to
climate change was also high. Climate change resilience was the highest in the humid
region, but also accompanied by the highest risk of climate exposure in the region, the
sensitivity of regional urbans had a greater relationship with its urban size
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