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1 
 
 
Year-on-year 
change in pupil 
attendance 
 
Research Report 
May 2025 
2 
 
Contents 
List of figures 3 
List of tables 4 
Introduction 5 
Key Findings 6 
Methodology 7 
Source of data 7 
Absence Bands 7 
Stochastic Matrices 8 
Results 9 
Annex 13 
 
3 
 
List of figures 
Figure 1: Percentage of pupils in each year group and absence band transitioning to 
0-10% absence in 2022/23 10 
Figure 2: Percentage of pupils in each absence band with worsening attendance 
from 2021/22 to 2022/23 by year group 11 
Figure 3: Percentage of pupils remaining in each absence band from 2021/22 to 
2022/23 year by year group 12 
 
4 
 
List of tables 
Table 1: Range of possible days and weeks of school missed in selected absence 
bands over a full school year ...................................................................................... 8 
Table 2: Percentage of pupils in each year group and absence band transitioning to 
0-10% absence in 2022/23 ....................................................................................... 13 
Table 3: Percentage of pupils in each absence band with worsening attendance the 
following year from 2021/22 to 2022/23 by year group ............................................ 13 
Table 4: Percentage of pupils remaining in each absence band from 2021/22 to 
2022/23 year by year group ..................................................................................... 14 
 
 
 
5 
 
Introduction 
The Department has published data on the number and proportion of pupils in 5% 
absence bands1. This report investigates how pupils transition between these bands 
as they progress through year groups using data from pupils in state-funded main-
stream schools in 2021/22 and 2022/23 – and therefore focuses on one years’ worth 
of transitions. 
This analysis uses pupil-level data to track movement and therefore cannot be repro-
duced solely from published statistics. 
 
1 Monitor your school attendance: how to use the absence bandings report - GOV.UK 
6 
 
Key Findings 
Our analysis shows that as pupils get older their year-on-year change in attendance 
(transition) worsens. Children with poor attendance in primary school are more likely 
to recover to a higher level of attendance the next year compared to secondary 
school pupils. 
• Across all year groups, pupils with 0-5% absence in 2021/22 are highly likely 
to have strong attendance the next academic year – with between 93% and 
96% of this group having below 10% absence in 22/23, depending on year 
group 
• Pupils with 5-10% absence in 2021/22 are less likely to have strong attend-
ance the next academic year (compared with those with 0-5% absence). 86% 
of year 1s in this group have 0-10% attendance in 22/23, but this drops as low 
as 75% for year 7s. 
• Combing these groups, over 80% pupils with 0-10% absence in 2021/22 have 
between 0-10% absence in 2022/23.  
• Over 80% pupils with 0-10% absence in 2021/22 have between 0-10% ab-
sence in 2022/23.  
• Over 60% of primary school pupils with greater than 15% absence in 2021/22 
remained persistently (greater than 10% absence) or severely (greater than 
50% absence) absent in 2022/23. 
• Over 70% of year 6 pupils with greater than 15% absence in 2021/22 re-
mained persistently or severely absent in year 7 in 2022/23. 
• Over 80% of secondary school pupils with greater than 15% absence in 
2021/22 remain persistently or severely absent in 2022/23. 
 
These findings underscore the importance of targeted interventions during the critical 
transition from primary to secondary school, particularly for pupils with 10-15% ab-
sence. They imply that there may be absence ‘tipping points’ during a pupil’s time at 
school where improved attendance could lead to improved future attendance – how-
ever more analysis is required to establish the long-term effects of attendance inter-
ventions. 
7 
 
Methodology 
Methods used within this report are summarised below. 
Source of data 
Parents of children of compulsory school age (aged between 5 and 15 at the start of 
the academic year) are, by law, required to ensure that their children receive a suita-
ble education through regular attendance at school or otherwise. The Department for 
Education collects each enrolled pupil’s overall sessions missed and number of pos-
sible sessions available to them, where a session is equivalent to half a day of 
school. 
The absence data collected via the school census is as reported by the individual 
schools and therefore the data provider (i.e. the individual schools) are responsible 
for ensuring the accuracy of the data returned. At the point of submission to the De-
partment, the data collected is deemed to have been checked and signed off by the 
school head teacher. The data collected from local authority maintained schools also 
undergoes further approval by the responsible local authority before use by the De-
partment. 
Absence data is then matched into the National Pupil Database (NPD) – a longitudi-
nal database which holds a wide range of pupil level data for schools across Eng-
land. Note that as with any matching exercise there is an accepted margin of error, 
and some mismatches may occur. 
Absence Bands  
A school records if a pupil attends each half day session at school. Over the school 
year the number of sessions a pupil attends is calculated as a percentage of the pos-
sible sessions they could have attended at the school. For this report these absence 
percentages have been grouped into 5% bandings. Table 1 below shows the range 
of days and weeks missed by a pupil in selected bandings if the pupil had been reg-
istered for a full school year of 380 sessions. 
  
8 
 
 
Table 1: Range of possible days and weeks of school missed in selected 
absence bands over a full school year 
Absence Band Range of possible days missed 
Range of possible 
weeks missed 
0-5% 0 - 9.5 0 - 1.9 
5-10% 9.5 - 19 1.9 - 3.8 
10-15% 19 - 28.5 3.8 - 5.7 
15-20% 28.5 - 38 5.7 - 7.6 (approx. half a term) 
20-25% 38 - 47.5 7.6 - 9.5 
25-30% 47.5 - 57 9.5 - 11.4 
30-35% 57 - 66.5 11.4 - 13.3 
35-40% 66.5 - 76 13.3 - 15.2 (approx. full term) 
40-45% 76 - 85.5 15.2 - 17.1 
45-50% 85.5 - 95 17.1 - 19 
>50% >95 >19 
 
Stochastic Matrices 
Stochastic matrices are used to model the likelihood of pupils transitioning between 
different absence bands as they progress through the school system. This approach 
provides valuable insights into attendance patterns and trends. For example, it ena-
bles the identification of the proportion of Year 1 pupils with 0-5% absence who re-
main in that band in Year 2, as well as those who move into higher absence bands. 
This methodology is instrumental in understanding how attendance behaviours de-
velop over time and identifying critical points where interventions may be required. 
By tracking these transitions, it is possible to pinpoint specific cohorts at risk of in-
creased absences and develop targeted strategies to improve attendance. 
The data in this publication pertains to one year’s worth of transition. Some caution 
must be applied in generalising these results to the future, as these transition rates 
may change year on year. 
9 
 
Results 
Pupil absence increases as pupils get older 
Whilst most pupils remain in the 0-10% absence bands for the entirety of their edu-
cation, the overall absence of pupils across all absence bands tends to increase line-
arly with school year group once pupils begin secondary school. 
Pupil absences can be driven by various factors, including personal, familial, aca-
demic, and environmental influences. While some absence is short-term and im-
proves in subsequent years, the majority of pupils experience progressively worsen-
ing attendance over time. For example, in the academic year 2022/23, average Year 
1 pupil absence is 6.6%, however, for Year 11 pupils it is 10.7%. This trend leads 
some pupils to become persistently absent, missing 10% or more possible sessions, 
and eventually, they may become severely absent, missing 50% or more possible 
sessions. 
Primary Pupils  
In primary schools, around 60% of pupils who become 10-15% persistently absent in 
2021/22 improve to being less than 10% absent in the following year – with the re-
maining 40% maintaining absence rate of more than 10% in the following year. Over 
60% of primary school pupils with greater than 15% absence will remain persistently 
or severely absent the following year. 
Secondary Pupils  
In secondary schools, only 45% of pupils who become 10-15% persistently absent 
improve to being less than 10% absent in the following year. Over 80% of secondary 
school pupils with greater than 15% absence will remain persistently or severely ab-
sent the following year. 
Pupils transitioning from primary to secondary 
For year 6 pupils, 53% of pupils who become 10-15% persistently absent improve to 
being less than 10% absent in year 7. Over 70% of year 6 pupils with greater than 
15% absence will remain persistently or severely absent in year 7. 
10 
 
Tracking the likelihood of returning to 0-10% by year group  
In every year group, as absence levels increase, the likelihood of returning to 0-10% 
absence rates in the following year decreases. This effect begins to increase for year 
6 pupils transitioning into year 7 and increases again for all secondary transitions 
(Figure 1). 
Figure 1: Percentage of pupils in each year group and absence band 
transitioning to 0-10% absence in 2022/23 
 
Tracking the likelihood of pupils’ absence improving by 
year group  
The proportion of pupils remaining in the same absence band or improving declines 
as they advance through the school system. A significant tipping point is observed in 
the 10-15% absence band, particularly at the transition to secondary school (Figure 
2). In Year 7, the percentage of pupils with increasing absence rates is twice as high 
as in Year 1. By Year 8, this percentage rises to nearly three times the Year 1 level. 
This suggests that the transition to secondary school is a critical period, with a steep 
and sustained rise in absence rates from Year 7 onwards. 
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
Absence Band in 2021/22 (%)
Year 1 Year 2 Year 3 Year 4 Year 5
Year 6 Year 7 Year 8 Year 9 Year 10
11 
 
In secondary year groups, as pupil absence goes above 70% there is a decrease in 
the proportion of pupils whose attendance gets worse the next year. This may be the 
result of a ceiling effect but may also indicate the positive impact of local authority in-
terventions or other mitigating factors at extremely high levels of absence.  
 
Figure 2: Percentage of pupils in each absence band with worsening 
attendance from 2021/22 to 2022/23 by year group 
 
Tracking the proportion of pupils who stay in the same 
absence band the next year 
Whilst most secondary school pupils with 10-30% absence do not improve the fol-
lowing academic year, there are a significant number of pupils in these absence 
bands having the same absence the following year. Across all year groups, between 
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
Absence band in 2021/22 (%)
Year 1 Year 2 Year 3 Year 4 Year 5
Year 6 Year 7 Year 8 Year 9 Year 10
Secondary 
school 
pupils
Primary 
school 
pupils
Y6 to Y7 
transition
Severe absencePersistent absence 
12 
 
10% and 40% of pupils in these bands remain in the same absence bands the fol-
lowing year (Figure 3). Their continued presence in the same band suggests a con-
sistent pattern of persistent absence, indicating potential for improvement with tar-
geted interventions. 
 
 
Figure 3: Percentage of pupils remaining in each absence band from 2021/22 
to 2022/23 year by year group 
 
 
 
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
Absence band in 2021/22 (%)
Year 1 Year 2 Year 3 Year 4 Year 5
Year 6 Year 7 Year 8 Year 9 Year 10
13 
 
Annex 
Table 2: Percentage of pupils in each year group and absence band transitioning 
to 0-10% absence in 2022/23 
Absence 
band in 
2021/22 
Year 
1 
Year 
2 
Year 
3 
Year 
4 
Year 
5 
Year 
6 
Year 
7 
Year 
8 
Year 
9 
Year 
10 
0-5% 96% 96% 96% 96% 96% 93% 93% 93% 94% 93% 
5-10% 86% 86% 85% 85% 85% 79% 75% 75% 77% 76% 
10-15% 64% 62% 60% 59% 60% 53% 42% 43% 46% 47% 
15-20% 40% 37% 36% 35% 35% 30% 20% 21% 23% 24% 
20-25% 28% 26% 25% 23% 24% 20% 14% 13% 13% 14% 
25-30% 23% 22% 21% 20% 19% 18% 11% 10% 10% 10% 
30-35% 22% 24% 21% 20% 21% 17% 12% 10% 9% 9% 
35-40% 19% 21% 20% 17% 17% 16% 10% 8% 9% 8% 
40-45% 24% 23% 22% 22% 20% 16% 10% 10% 8% 8% 
45-50% 24% 23% 22% 21% 17% 16% 10% 8% 7% 8% 
50-55% 29% 31% 29% 25% 25% 22% 12% 10% 8% 8% 
55-60% 20% 18% 22% 20% 18% 16% 9% 6% 7% 9% 
60-65% 28% 24% 21% 23% 19% 14% 11% 9% 7% 9% 
65-70% 25% 21% 27% 27% 17% 19% 11% 9% 7% 8% 
70-75% 26% 23% 26% 20% 17% 16% 11% 8% 7% 8% 
75-80% 23% 28% 28% 27% 24% 21% 11% 8% 7% 8% 
80-85% 31% 28% 25% 26% 18% 24% 8% 10% 8% 8% 
85-90% 28% 31% 33% 22% 28% 21% 8% 10% 7% 8% 
90-95% 29% 26% 23% 26% 25% 12% 12% 10% 9% 7% 
95-100% 57% 62% 61% 58% 57% 48% 39% 28% 22% 20% 
 
 
Table 3: Percentage of pupils in each absence band with worsening attendance the 
following year from 2021/22 to 2022/23 by year group 
Absence 
band in 
2021/22 
Year 
1 
Year 
2 
Year 
3 
Year 
4 
Year 
5 
Year 
6 
Year 
7 
Year 
8 
Year 
9 
Year 
10 
0-5% 25% 24% 24% 24% 24% 27% 30% 30% 28% 29% 
5-10% 14% 14% 15% 15% 15% 21% 25% 25% 23% 24% 
10-15% 13% 15% 16% 16% 16% 25% 31% 30% 28% 27% 
15-20% 15% 18% 19% 20% 19% 32% 39% 38% 36% 34% 
20-25% 17% 19% 21% 23% 22% 36% 45% 43% 42% 41% 
25-30% 17% 20% 22% 23% 24% 38% 48% 47% 47% 45% 
14 
 
 
 
Absence 
band in 
2021/22 
Year 
1 
Year 
2 
Year 
3 
Year 
4 
Year 
5 
Year 
6 
Year 
7 
Year 
8 
Year 
9 
Year 
10 
30-35% 18% 21% 22% 25% 24% 39% 49% 50% 49% 48% 
35-40% 19% 21% 23% 28% 28% 42% 53% 52% 51% 50% 
40-45% 18% 21% 23% 24% 29% 37% 51% 52% 52% 52% 
45-50% 18% 20% 26% 24% 29% 42% 52% 52% 52% 51% 
50-55% 17% 17% 20% 22% 27% 35% 46% 51% 52% 50% 
55-60% 18% 18% 24% 26% 32% 37% 50% 52% 53% 51% 
60-65% 13% 20% 21% 24% 28% 35% 50% 50% 50% 51% 
65-70% 12% 16% 18% 24% 30% 39% 48% 50% 48% 50% 
70-75% 9% 19% 18% 21% 32% 34% 46% 50% 48% 46% 
75-80% 16% 12% 18% 18% 28% 30% 45% 45% 46% 46% 
80-85% 14% 21% 21% 18% 23% 29% 43% 41% 41% 41% 
85-90% 15% 13% 15% 23% 22% 26% 43% 40% 37% 41% 
90-95% 15% 14% 18% 20% 19% 30% 30% 32% 34% 36% 
 
Table 4: Percentage of pupils remaining in each absence band from 2021/22 to 
2022/23 year by year group 
Absence 
band in 
2021/22 
Year 
1 
Year 
2 
Year 
3 
Year 
4 
Year 
5 
Year 
6 
Year 
7 
Year 
8 
Year 
9 
Year 
10 
5-10% 75% 76% 76% 76% 76% 73% 70% 70% 72% 71% 
10-15% 37% 37% 37% 38% 38% 35% 40% 42% 41% 39% 
15-20% 23% 23% 24% 25% 24% 22% 27% 27% 26% 26% 
20-25% 16% 17% 18% 17% 18% 16% 18% 18% 18% 18% 
25-30% 12% 13% 13% 14% 13% 12% 13% 14% 14% 13% 
30-35% 10% 10% 11% 11% 10% 9% 10% 11% 10% 11% 
35-40% 8% 7% 8% 8% 8% 7% 8% 8% 8% 9% 
40-45% 7% 6% 7% 6% 7% 5% 6% 7% 7% 7% 
45-50% 6% 6% 5% 6% 5% 4% 6% 6% 6% 6% 
50-55% 4% 6% 4% 4% 6% 4% 5% 4% 5% 6% 
55-60% 4% 5% 5% 5% 6% 5% 6% 6% 5% 6% 
60-65% 7% 5% 6% 5% 3% 5% 5% 5% 5% 5% 
65-70% 2% 3% 2% 3% 4% 5% 5% 6% 7% 5% 
70-75% 6% 3% 4% 3% 4% 4% 5% 5% 4% 5% 
75-80% 2% 4% 5% 2% 4% 7% 5% 4% 5% 6% 
80-85% 1% 2% 2% 5% 3% 4% 6% 6% 5% 6% 
15 
 
 
 
Absence 
band in 
2021/22 
Year 
1 
Year 
2 
Year 
3 
Year 
4 
Year 
5 
Year 
6 
Year 
7 
Year 
8 
Year 
9 
Year 
10 
85-90% 2% 4% 2% 2% 6% 3% 6% 5% 7% 7% 
90-95% 2% 1% 3% 6% 4% 2% 7% 6% 7% 8% 
95-100% 4% 4% 2% 3% 5% 3% 11% 10% 8% 10% 
16 
 
 
 
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