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Defining a dichotomous indicator for population-level assessment of dietary diversity among pregnant adolescent girls and women: A secondary analysis of quantitative 24-h recalls from rural settings in Bangladesh, Burkina Faso, India, and Nepal
No full textBackground The Minimum Dietary Diversity for Women of Reproductive Age (MDD-W) indicator was validated as a proxy of micronutrient adequacy among nonpregnant women in low- and middle-income countries (LMICs). At that time, indeed, there was insufficient data to validate the indicator among pregnant women, who face higher micronutrient requirements. Objective This study aimed to validate a minimum food group consumption threshold, out of the 10 food groups used to construct MDD-W, to be used as a population-level indicator of higher micronutrient adequacy among pregnant women aged 15–49 y in LMICs. Methods We used secondary quantitative 24-h recall data from 6 surveys in 4 LMICs (Bangladesh, Burkina Faso, India, and Nepal, total n = 4909). We computed the 10-food group Women's Dietary Diversity Score (WDDS-10) and calculated the mean probability of adequacy (MPA) of 11 micronutrients. Linear regression models were fitted to assess the associations between WDDS-10 and MPA. Sensitivity, specificity, and proportion of individuals correctly classified were used to assess the performance of MDD-W in predicting an MPA of >0.60. Results In the pooled sample, median values (interquartile range) of WDDS-10 and MPA were 3 (1) and 0.20 (0.34), respectively, whereas the proportion of pregnant women with an MPA of >0.60 was 9.6%. The WDDS-10 was significantly positively associated with MPA in each survey. Although the acceptable food group consumption threshold varied between 4 and 6 food groups across surveys, the threshold of 5 showed the highest performance in the pooled sample with good sensitivity (62%), very good specificity (81%), and percentage of correctly classified individuals (79%). Conclusions The WDDS-10 is a good predictor of dietary micronutrient adequacy among pregnant women aged 15–49 y in LMICs. Moreover, the threshold of 5 or more food groups for the MDD-W indicator may be extended to all women of reproductive age, regardless of their physiologic status.Alive and ThriveNutrition, Diets, and Health (NDH); Poverty, Gender, and Inclusion (PGI
Evidence of potential impacts of a nutrition-sensitive agroecology program in Andhra Pradesh, India, on dietary diversity, nutritional status, and child development
No full textIntroduction While a number of studies have examined the nutritional impacts of agroecological interventions, few have examined impacts on child development, maternal and child anemia, and men’s dietary diversity. Moreover, there have been few such evaluations at scale. We evaluated the impact of a large-scale, multi-component food-based nutrition intervention involving homestead food production, nutrition counselling, cooking demonstrations, and crop planning exercises.
Methods A cross-sectional assessment was conducted in 2021–2022 of 50 intervention villages where the nutrition-sensitive agroecology program had been implemented since 2018 and 79 control villages where only the agroecology program had been implemented. Data on self-reported dietary intake, caregiver-reported early child development, anthropometric measurements, and hemoglobin concentrations were collected using standardized procedures by trained Nutrition Farming Fellows, who were also responsible for implementing the program.
Results A sample of 3,511 households (1,121 intervention and 2,390 control) participated in the survey. Dietary diversity scores (DDS) among women and men were mean (SD) 6.53 (±1.62) and 6.16 (±1.65), respectively, in intervention villages and 5.81 (±1.58) and 5.39 (±1.61), respectively, in control villages (p<0.01). DDS among children 6–24 months of age in intervention and control villages was 2.99 (±1.52) and 2.73 (±1.62), respectively (p<0.01). Children <2 years of age were less likely to be anemic in intervention versus control villages (59% versus 69%, p<0.01). Children 18–35 months age in intervention villages had higher child development scores than children in control villages (all p<0.05).
Conclusion Nutrition-sensitive agroecological programs may be effective in improving diets, nutrition, and child development in rural India.Nutrition, Diets, and Health (NDH); Food and Nutrition Polic
Predicting climate smart agriculture (CSA) practices using machine learning: A prime exploratory survey
No full textThe paper aim and novelty is the development of technology-based tools able of providing realistic insights on farmers’ future adaptation decisions by developing an ML algorithm to predict Climate-Smart Agriculture (CSA) practices and highlight modeling challenges to account for. And proposing a theoretical approach that grounds the selection of data (i.e. input and response variables) with well stablished theories on adaptation decision making process; with the aim of demonstrating ways of improving data science and ML publication quality in the field of agricultural economics. Data used are farmers’ socio-economic characteristics, farms’ features, agro-ecology’s features, climate indicators (temperature, rain, etc.), etc. In this paper, the optimized Gradient Boosting ML was trained and tested using households’ level data from Rakai district in Central Region of Uganda. The modeling approach was framed in climate adaptation analytical frameworks. Data extracted allows generating CSA clusters giving two response variables, used separately to train two different algorithms. The developed CSA predictive algorithm demonstrates that adaptation practices can be predicted using households’ level parameters. And both models are revealed to have fair performance metrics, with algorithm reaching up to 60% of accuracy. To further improve accuracy scores, deep-learning algorithms are suggested in future research. The developed CSA prediction algorithm could be used at both households and value chain levels, to select appropriate adaptation strategies, to plan adaptation, to estimate adaptation costs and develop investment’ plans.Development Strategies and Governance (DSG
From streets to tables: Bottom-up cocreation case studies for healthier food environments in Vietnam and Nigeria
No full textCurrent food systems fail to provide equity, sustainability, and positive health outcomes, thus underscoring the critical need for their transformation. Intervening in food environments holds substantial promise for contributing to this much-needed transformation. Despite scholars and practitioners often recognizing the necessity for bottom-up approaches, there is a dearth of empirical investigations evaluating the potential of these approaches to contribute to food system transformations in low- and middle-income countries (LMICs). Our study aims to address this research gap, providing a unique perspective in this regard. Drawing on evidence from two co-creation case studies conducted with small-scale informal fruit and vegetable vendors and poor consumers in Vietnam and Nigeria from January 2020 to December 2021, we explore the relevance of bottom-up community-engaged co-creation processes in intervening within LMICs’ food retail environments. Employing a mixed-methods approach that includes quantitative surveys, qualitative interviews, participatory workshops, and focus group discussions, we demonstrate that bottom-up co-creation processes involving marginalized socioeconomic groups can generate retail-level innovations that are tailored to informal retail contexts, while remaining aligned with established top-down theories and literature pertaining to food environments and healthy diets. We provide empirical evidence highlighting how both vendors and consumers respond positively to the co-created innovations. Expanding upon our results, we offer methodological insights applicable to interventions targeted at food environments in LMICs, and considerations for future research or development initiatives in this domain. Our findings reveal the capacity of vulnerable stakeholders to actively engage in public health initiatives and contribute to developing innovative solutions that are context-specific and conducive to the adoption of healthier dietary practices. These results confirm the potential of bottom-up, co-creation, real-world interventions within informal settings to contribute towards fostering inclusive transformation of food systems.Nutrition, Diets, and Health (NDH
Capacity development for resilient food systems: Issues, approaches, and knowledge gaps
No full textFood systems face shocks varying in breadth and duration from a wide array of sources. These shocks can affect all aspects of a country’s food system, threatening the food security of its citizens. Low levels of capacity to address food system shocks are a major development challenge. This paper presents a conceptual framework for assessing the capacity of a food system to become more resilient, regardless of what kind of threat it faces. It suggests that food systems can be categorized into three subsystems: a policy system; markets, trade, and institutions; and a production system. Within each of these systems, three dimensions of capacity are analyzed: individual capacity, organizational capacity, and system capacity. The paper explores examples of building capacity within this framework and identifies key knowledge and research gaps. It also presents a typology as a possible tool for prioritizing investments in capacity building for resilience across countries.PRIFPRI1; CRP4; CRP2; 2020; E Building Resilience; E.1 Policies, institutions and investments for resilient social systemsDGO; PIM; A4NH; PICCGIAR Research Program on Policies, Institutions, and Markets (PIM); CGIAR Research Program on Agriculture for Nutrition and Health (A4NH
Technology intensification and farmers’ welfare: A case study from Karnataka, a semi-arid state of India
No full textTechnology adoption has been advocated as an important way to improve agricultural productivity and welfare of farmers in the semi-arid regions across the globe. The Government of Karnataka implemented the Bhoosamrudhi program in four districts of the state (Bidar, Chikballapur, Dharwad, and Udupi) as a pilot project to increase the crop yield and income of smallholder farmers. This program was launched on the theme of technology adoption along with convergence among different departments of agriculture. Farmers have been classified into five categories based on their levels of technology intensification to assess the impact of different levels of technology intensification on their welfare. The research is built on a primary survey conducted in pilot districts of the state in 2018 over a sample of 1,465 farmer households. The results generated using econometric methods of propensity score matching (PSM) and inverse probability weighted with regression adjustment (IPWRA) highlight that the higher the intensification, the higher the net returns to the farmers. The results state that non-adopters would receive a benefit of an additional Rs.3200 per month if they adopt at least one level of technology intensification. Hence, this program turned out to be a successful model for smallholder farmers in semi-arid regions of India. Steps should be taken to maintain and expand the momentum of adoption to ensure food and livelihood security in the economy.Non-PRIFPRI1; DCA; 4 Transforming Agricultural and Rural Economies; 5 Strengthening Institutions and GovernanceSA
Impact evaluation report: Egypt’s Takaful Cash Transfer Program: Second round report
No full textEgypt introduced the Takaful and Karama Program (TKP), a pair of targeted cash transfer schemes in 2015. In 2018, the International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI) completed the first round of impact evaluation of TKP, based on household survey data collected after the first 15 months of the program. In the period between the first-round evaluation and the data collection for this report in January 2022, Egypt faced an enormous economic shock in the COVID-19 pandemic with a complete loss of tourism, which before the crisis was responsible for 12% of GDP and 10% of employment (IMF, 2021). A follow-up evaluation was designed to assess whether impacts estimated from the first round have been sustained and whether longer duration of treatment has led to impacts on additional outcome variables. This follow-up impact evaluation was conducted using a regression discontinuity (RD) design similar to the first round but using a different sample of households much more tightly concentrated around the 4500 thresholds to address concerns about the smaller discontinuity. We find that households invested in assets, particularly productive assets and Takaful households reduced their debt burdens. There were no measurable impacts of the Takaful program on household consumption or poverty, which may be partially explained by changes in household demographics. We also find that Takaful improved school enrollment and attendance and contributed to household’s ability to cope with shocks.Non-PRIFPRI; EgyptSSP; CRP2; Evaluating Impact and Building Capacity (EIBC); 5 Strengthening Institutions and GovernanceDSGD; PHND; PIMCGIAR Research Program on Policies, Institutions, and Markets (PIM
Senegal’s agrifood system structure and drivers of transformation
No full textSenegal experienced annual economic growth of 4.8 percent during the 2009 to 2019 period (World Bank 2023a). With an annual population growth rate of 2.7 percent over the same period, the living standards of Senegalese improved modestly. In 2020, the global COVID-19 pandemic caused a significant slowdown in economic growth, but growth rebounded in 2021. While the country was adversely affected by the global commodity market disruptions related to the Russia-Ukraine war that started in 2022 (Arndt et al. 2023; Diao and Thurlow 2023), its growth is projected to reach 8.0 percent in 2023 and 10.5 percent in 2024 (World Bank 2023b). This suggests a much-improved short-term outlook and a future growth trajectory well above its pre-pandemic growth trajectory. Agriculture is a relatively small sector in Senegal, accounting for less than one-fifth of GDP. However, the broader agrifood system (AFS), which includes processing, trade and transport of agrifood products, and food services, makes up about one-third of GDP. In this brief, we examine the performance of Senegal’s broader AFS and its
contribution to growth and transformation.Non-PRIFPRI1; 4 Transforming Agricultural and Rural Economies; Capacity Strengthening; AFSdiagnosticsDevelopment Strategies and Governance (DSG); Foresight and Policy Modeling (FPM); Innovation Policy and Scaling (IPS); Transformation Strategie
Nepal’s agrifood system structure and drivers of transformation
No full textNepal experienced annual economic growth of 5.0 percent between 2009 and 2019 (World Bank 2023b). Thanks to a relatively slow population growth rate of 1.4 percent, the living standards of most Nepalis improved during this period; this allowed Nepal to graduate in 2019 from a low-income country to a lower-middle-income country. Nepal’s economy, however, was severely affected by the COVID-19 pandemic, with GDP declining by 2.4 percent in 2020 and growing only modestly in 2021. Fortunately, the country was largely spared the adverse effects of global commodity market disruptions arising from the Russia-Ukraine war that started in 2022 and from the 2023 global recession (Arndt et al. 2023; Diao and Thurlow 2023). Nepal’s GDP growth is now projected to reach 5.1 percent in 2023 and 4.9 percent in 2024 (World Bank 2023a); this suggests that the economy is resuming its pre-pandemic growth trajectory. Agriculture remains an important sector, accounting for 25 percent of Nepal’s GDP and 30 percent of its jobs. In this brief, we further unpack Nepal’s historical and projected economic growth trajectory in order to better understand the role of agriculture, and of the broader agrifood system (AFS), in the performance and transformation of its economy.Non-PRIFPRI1; 4 Transforming Agricultural and Rural Economies; Capacity Strengthening; AFSdiagnosticsDevelopment Strategies and Governance (DSG); Foresight and Policy Modeling (FPM); Innovation Policy and Scaling (IPS); Transformation Strategie
Malawi’s agrifood system structure and drivers of transformation
No full textMalawi experienced modest growth from 2009 to 2019, with average annual GDP growth of 4.7 percent. The global COVID-19 pandemic caused a significant slowdown in 2020 and 2021, and the economy has not yet rebounded to pre-pandemic levels (World Bank 2023). At the time of writing, GDP is projected to grow at 2.4 percent in 2023, which in combination with population growth of 2.7 percent would result in a 0.3 percent contraction of GDP per capita (IMF 2023). At the core of the failure to resume pre-pandemic economic growth rates are a worsening debt crisis, a balance of payment crisis, an acute shortage of foreign exchange reserves, and several external shocks (World Bank 2022). The latter include the effects of the Russia-Ukraine conflict and the devastation caused by cyclone Freddy in 2023 (De Weerdt and Duchoslav 2022; Diao et al. 2022).Non-PRIFPRI1; 4 Transforming Agricultural and Rural Economies; Capacity Strengthening; AFSdiagnosticsDevelopment Strategies and Governance (DSG); Foresight and Policy Modeling (FPM); Innovation Policy and Scaling (IPS); Transformation Strategie