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2024 annual trends and outlook report: Advancing the climate and bioeconomy agenda in Africa for resilient and sustainable agrifood systems
No full textThe 2024 edition of the Annual Trends and Outlook Report (ATOR) explores the challenges posed by the climate crisis to agrifood systems and the opportunities offered by a transition to a bioeconomy to mitigate and adapt to the adverse impacts of climate change. This ATOR seeks to support the ongoing development and the subsequent implementation of a new 10-year Comprehensive Africa Agriculture Development Programme (CAADP) strategy by the African Union through the renewed and updated post-Malabo CAADP agenda
Traders and agri-food value chain resilience: the case of maize in Myanmar
No full textMyanmar has experienced a sequence of dire crises beginning in 2019 including the unexpected closure of a principal trade route, COVID-19 lockdowns and travel restrictions, and a military coup leading to years of disruptions in the banking and transport sectors, inflation, and conflict. Yet, through these cascading shocks Myanmar’s maize sector experienced robust growth in production and exports. This paper examines the reasons underlying this apparent paradox and our findings contribute to the small but growing literatures on agri-food value chain (AVC) resilience and adaptation by traders. Strengthening the resilience of AVCs to shocks has important implications for welfare in developing countries and is increasingly drawing attention from policymakers and development partners. Using data from several sources including rare panel data sets of traders and farmers, and key informant interviews, we show that crop traders have been critical to the resilience of the maize value chain in Myanmar during this turbulent period. Maize traders performed three key functions contributing to resilience: (i) market discovery when primary trade routes were closed; (ii) overcoming transportation disruptions and bank closures to move maize from the farmgate to local and export markets; (iii) maintaining flows of credit to farmers throughout the crises in the form of selling inputs on credit and lending cash, thereby injecting much needed liquidity at times of incredible uncertainty, disruptions in the banking sector, and rising input prices.Development Strategies and Governance (DSG
Transforming food systems through risk-contingent credit in rural Africa: Development, experimentation, and evaluation
No full textThroughout Africa, climate change is posing severe challenges to agricultural production and food security. Agricultural risks—particularly those associated with drought—are a major cause of low agricultural productivity in most African countries, including Kenya. According to the Government of Kenya, four consecutive years (2008–2011) of drought caused US$12.1 billion in losses, accounting for about 8 percent of GDP, including losses in assets and disruptions to the economy across sectors (Kenya, Ministry of Agriculture, Livestock and Fisheries 2014). Currently, Kenya is in the middle of an acute drought following three consecutive poor rainy seasons. This has led to a drop in crop production nationally of about 70 percent, which has disproportionately exposed the communities of arid and semi-arid lands to hunger and malnutrition.PRIFPRI4; 1 Fostering Climate-Resilient and Sustainable Food Supply; 2 Promoting Healthy Diets and Nutrition for allDevelopment Strategies and Governance (DSG); Transformation Strategies; Foresight and Policy Modeling (FPM); Transformation Strategie
Can a light-touch graduation model enhance livelihood outcomes? Evidence from Ethiopia
No full textIn recent years, a growing literature has examined the potential of multifaceted, intensive “graduation model” interventions that simultaneously address multiple barriers constraining households’ exit from poverty. In this paper, we present new evidence from a randomized trial of a lighter-touch graduation model implemented in rural Ethiopia. The primary experimental arms are a bundled intervention including a productive transfer valued at $374 (randomly assigned to be cash or an equivalent value in poultry), training, and savings groups; a simpler intervention including training and savings groups only; and a control arm. We find that three years post-baseline, the intervention inclusive of the transfer leads to some increases in assets, savings, and cash income from livestock, though there is no shift in consumption or household food security; these effects are consistent regardless of the modality of the transfer (cash versus poultry). The effects of training and savings groups alone are minimal.Non-PRIFPRI1; CRP2; 2 Promoting Healthy Diets and Nutrition for all; 3 Building Inclusive and Efficient Markets, Trade Systems, and Food Industry; 4 Transforming Agricultural and Rural Economies; Capacity Strengthening; SPIRPoverty, Gender, and Inclusion (PGI); Food and Nutrition Policy; PIMCGIAR Research Program on Policies, Institutions, and Markets (PIM
Planning for voice: A skills training manual for women for exercising voice and agency [in Odia]
No full textThe International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI), one of the research centers within the global Consultative Group on International Agricultural Research (CGIAR), has a long history of gender research relevant to its mission of reducing poverty and ending hunger and malnutrition. Over the last two decades, gender has been effectively incorporated into all of IFPRI’s strategic research areas and into all phases of research. There is abundant evidence of IFPRI’s role as a leading global think tank on gender issues.
The broader CGIAR shares IFPRI’s strong commitment to high-quality gender research. This commitment is embodied in the CGIAR Gender Impact Platform, the CGIAR Research Initiative on Gender Equality, and a network of gender research coordinators embedded in all CGIAR centers. Collectively, these efforts and their affiliated gender researchers work continuously with partners to fill gender and inclusion evidence gaps; build capacity and set directions to enable CGIAR to have maximum impact on gender equality; and promote opportunities for youth and social inclusion in agriculture and food systems.Non-PRIFPRI1; 4 Transforming Agricultural and Rural Economies; 5 Strengthening Institutions and Governance; G Cross-cutting gender theme; Capacity StrengtheningCPA; Poverty, Gender, and Inclusion (PGI); Food and Nutrition Polic
IFPRI Malawi monthly maize market report, April 2024
No full textThe Monthly Maize Market Report was developed by researchers at IFPRI Malawi with the goal of providing clear and accurate information on the variation of maize prices in selected markets throughout Malawi. The reports are intended as a resource for those interested in maize markets in Malawi, namely producers, traders, consumers, policy makers, and other agricultural stakeholders.MaSSPDevelopment Strategies and Governance (DSG
Public stockholding programs and the WTO
No full textThe issue of how support for public stockholding (PSH) programs is calculated and disciplined within the WTO Agreement on Agriculture (AoA) has been a point of contention since 2012. PSH was largely uncontroversial during the Doha negotiations, where issues like the Special Safeguard Mechanism, domestic support, and cotton contributed to the collapse of negotiations in 2008 (Blustein 2009; Jones 2010; Margulis 2023). However, members who raised administered prices to keep up with surging market prices in the late 2000s found themselves facing potential challenges, as support levels for PSH programs threatened to exceed domestic support commitments under the AoA.
At the Ministerial Conference in Bali in 2013 (MC 9), members agreed to an interim mechanism, which granted a “peace clause” to countries with existing PSH programs, effectively shielding them from challenges regarding compliance with domestic support obligations under the WTO Dispute Settlement Mechanism. Under the Bali Decision, members agreed to provide data on how the program operated and to ensure that such programs were not trade distorting or would not affect the food security of other WTO members. PSH remains controversial and members failed to reach agreement on a permanent solution at subsequent Ministerials in Nairobi, Buenos Aires and Geneva. More than 10 years later, failure to reach an agreement on PSH continues to block significant progress in overall negotiations.LAC; Markets, Trade, and Institutions (MTI
Price volatility, export restrictions and the need for transparency
No full textIn this chapter, we explore how the WTO has struggled to fulfill its mission of advancing negotiations post the Uruguay Round. As export restrictions were not prioritized during the creation of GATT and the establishment of the WTO, this led to the utilization of export restrictions by countries, particularly in an unstable context, further exacerbating volatility in agricultural commodities. Moreover, as a result of an insufficient WTO notification system, countries have failed to promptly notify all measures. Furthermore, due to the paralysis of the Dispute Settlement Body, the WTO has lost its enforcement capacity, reducing the incentive for countries to engage in discussions within that forum, even when it is necessary to enhance transparency levels that provide greater certainty to dynamic and stressed markets, which is crucial for driving global food security and ensuring efficient allocation.LAC; Markets, Trade, and Institutions (MTI
Estimating multidimensional development resilience
No full textResilience measurement has received substantial attention over the past decade or so. Existing measures, however, relate resilience to a single well-being indicator. This may be problematic in contexts where households face deprivations in multiple dimensions. We explore how sensitive estimates of household-level resilience are to the specific well-being indicator used and show that measures are only weakly correlated across different, reasonable indicators based on expenditure-based poverty, dietary diversity, and livestock asset holdings. We then introduce a multidimensional resilience measure, integrating the probabilistic moment-based resilience measurement approach of Cissé and Barrett (2018) with the multidimensional poverty measurement method of Alkire and Foster (2011). Applying the new method to household panel data, we show that univariate and multidimensional resilience measures can yield varied inferences on the ranking of households as well as potential impact of development interventions.Development Strategies and Governance (DSG
Take-up of cash loans vs. agricultural input loans: A pilot study
No full textSmallholder farmers must invest in agricultural inputs (i.e., seeds, chemicals, equipment, land, and labor) during the planting season before earning income from the sale of agricultural produce after harvest. Credit can help relax liquidity constraints. In rural Nigeria, access to credit is limited, especially formal credit from financial institutions. Less than a third of households in rural Nigeria report using credit and only two percent of rural households borrowed credit from formal financial institutions (EFInA 2020). The rest is borrowed informally from friends, family, or local money lenders. Credit can take many different forms. For example, credit can take the form of a cash loan, where funds are provided to a borrower to make an investment of any kind. Another common form of credit is when specific goods, for instance agricultural inputs, are provided in advance to a payment. In both cases, the borrower must pay back both the loan amount, and any interest incurred from the loan. We partnered with Crop2Cash, a digital financial technology startup company operating in Nigeria, to test take-up for these two forms of credit.Markets, Trade, and Institutions (MTI); Development Strategies and Governance (DSG