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Can participation in agricultural programmes improve youth agribusiness performance? Insights from the Enable Programme in East Africa
No full textThis study addresses the gap in understanding the impact of agribusiness empowerment programmes on youth business performance in developing countries, taking the case of the ENABLE-TAAT programme in Kenya and Uganda. A multistage sampling technique was used in obtaining primary agribusiness-level data from a sample of 1003 young agripreneurs from the study countries. An Endogenous Treatment Effect Regression (ETER) model was used to identify factors influencing programme participation and impact on youth agribusiness performance. Results show that marital status, agribusiness experience, asset value, credit access, residence, prior programme awareness, and perception were the key determinants of participation. The ETER results chow that participation in the programme significantly increased youth’s agribusiness income by 7 percent and food security by 76 percent, with participants having higher asset value than non-participants. Based on these findings, we suggest policy interventions or programmes focusing on youth agribusiness empowerment, particularly those that target young actors along different agricultural value chains. We also suggest interventions geared towards mitigating constraints to credit access by young agripreneurs to ease barriers to working capital and business innovation. To increase access and participation, we recommend strategies to improve youth perception and raise awareness of these programmes.Development Strategies and Governance (DSG); Natural Resources and Resilience (NRR
The paper of how: Estimating treatment effects using the front-door criterion
No full textWe illustrate the use of Pearl's (1995) front-door criterion with observational data with an application in which the assumptions for point identification hold. For identification, the front-door criterion leverages exogenous mediator variables on the causal path. After a preliminary discussion of the identification assumptions behind and the estimation framework used for the front-door criterion, we present an empirical application. In our application, we look at the effect of deciding to share an Uber or Lyft ride on tipping by exploiting the algorithm-driven exogenous variation in whether one actually shares a ride conditional on authorizing sharing, the full fare paid, and origin–destination fixed effects interacted with two-hour interval fixed effects. We find that most of the observed negative relationship between choosing to share a ride and tipping is driven by customer selection into sharing rather than by sharing itself. In the Appendix, we explore the consequences of violating the identification assumptions for the front-door criterion.Markets, Trade, and Institutions (MTI
Irrigation technologies and management and their environmental consequences: Empirical evidence from Ethiopia
No full textThe main objective of this study is to understand the interlinkages between different irrigation technologies and management systems and environmental outcomes. We use a unique and comprehensive household and plot-level dataset covering ten districts of Ethiopia complemented with remotely sensed data and qualitative information collected from the study sites. The econometric results show that compared to open-access plots equipped with pump irrigation, other irrigated configurations, and especially private groundwater-based systems, have higher vegetation cover and show less susceptibility to the most common environmental concerns mentioned in the survey regions: water logging, soil salinity, and erosion externalities.Natural Resources and Resilience (NRR
Digital Twin for management of water resources in the Limpopo River Basin: a concept
No full textA Digital Twin is a virtual representation of an object or system that spans its lifecycle, is updated from real-time data, and uses simulation, machine learning and reasoning to help decision making. The use of Digital Twins to aid decision-makers to make realtime decisions in complex systems is a growing field, with large potential for water system management. The CGIAR Initiative on Digital Innovation is developing a prototype Digital Twin for the Limpopo River Basin in close combination with stakeholders, to enable better management and conservation of this imperilled natural resource upon which millions of people depend. The Digital Twin will provide an attractive and easy-to-use interface for users to intuitively understand large volumes of data and modelling results for timely management decisions, and to simulate the impact of these decisions on the complex river basin ecosystem before they are put into action. This includes an artificial intelligence (AI) tool to interrogate and visualize key actionable data and forecasts. It will be developed in a phased approach according to stakeholder priorities.Natural Resources and Resilience (NRR
A framework for cost-effectiveness analysis of greenhouse gas mitigation measures in dairy industry with an application to dairy farms in China
No full textDevelopment Strategies and Governance (DSG
Investment planning to minimize climate risk in agricultural production: An optimization model for a semi-arid region in India
No full textThe primary aim of this study is to prioritize investment required for scaling up climate-smart agriculture (CSA) technologies across different districts of Telangana state, which is in the semi-arid region of India. First, we analysed the trade-offs between expected agricultural income and its deviation across districts under drought and normal weather scenarios. The conventional MOTAD model was extended with various climate-smart technologies to assess their role in minimizing the trade-offs under various weather scenarios. A district-level panel dataset on cost of cultivation and crop production for 11 major crops under six different climate-smart technologies and farmers’ practices for five years (2010-11 to 2014-15) has been used. The dataset comprised a collation of official statistics on cost of cultivation, focus group interviews with farmers over the years, and data from experimental plots of Regional Agricultural Research Stations. The analysis reveals that the adoption of CSA technologies is likely to reduce production risk by 16% compared to farmers’ traditional practices (FTPs) while achieving optimum levels of crop income. Under a scenario of higher probability of drought, production risk is likely to increase by 12% in the state under FTPs; the adoption of CSA technologies could reduce the risk by 25%. The study suggests increasing investments in farm ponds and un-puddled machine transplanting in rice to minimize the risk-return trade-offs under a higher drought frequency scenario. Finally, the study generates evidence for policymakers to make informed investment decisions on CSA in order to enhance farming system resilience across districts in the semi-arid state of Telangana, India.Non-PRIFPRI1; CRP7; 1 Fostering Climate-Resilient and Sustainable Food Supply; Scaling-Up Climate Smart Agriculture through Policies and Institutions: Linking It with National Agenda of Food Security (CCFAS)SARCGIAR Research Program on Climate Change, Agriculture and Food Security (CCAFS
Nepal: Impacts of the Ukraine and global crises on poverty and food security
No full textGlobal food, fuel, and fertilizer prices have risen rapidly in recent months, driven in large part by the fallout from the ongoing war in Ukraine and the sanctions imposed on Russia. Other factors, such as export bans, have also contributed to rising prices. Palm oil and wheat prices increased by 56 and 100 percent in real terms, respectively, between June 2021 and April 2022, with most of the in-crease occurring since February (Figure 1).Non-PRIFPRI1; 4 Transforming Agricultural and Rural Economies; RIAPADSGD; SA
Women and youth in Myanmar agriculture [in Burmese]
No full textWomen’s and youth’s roles in agriculture vary across contexts and over time. Limited quantitative information is available on this topic from Southeast Asia in general, and particularly from Myanmar. We use nationally representative data to document women’s and youth’s involvement in agriculture in rural Myanmar. First, we show that women and youth contribute substantially to agriculture. Women in farm households perform 39 percent of household farm labour days, and 43 percent of agricultural wage workers are women. Twenty-seven percent of adults performing household agricultural work are youth and 22 percent of agricultural wage workers are youth. Yet, women’s farm wages are 29 percent lower than men’s farm wages. Youth’s farm wages are 17 percent lower than farm wages of non-youth for men, but we don’t find similar wage differences for women. Second, we find a significant gender gap in land rights, but the share of women who have land rights is still sizable. Nineteen percent of adult men are documented landowners compared to seven percent of adult women. Few youth have land rights, but the likelihood increases with age. Third, we explore cropping patterns. No crops are grown exclusively by men or women, but rice is more often and vegetables are less often cultivated by households where men are the sole agricultural decision makers. Finally, we focus on access to credit. Women receive loans less often than men (21 percent vs. 26 percent) and youth rarely receive loans (4 percent). Women’s loans are more often aimed at alleviating basic needs, such as food and health expenditures. Men’s loans are more often aimed at investment in productive activities, especially farming. The evidence suggests that including men, women and youth equally in agricultural projects and policy making is critical to advance equity and achieve development goals.Non-PRIFPRI1; CRP2; MAPSA; MyanmarSSP; 4 Transforming Agricultural and Rural Economies; G Cross-cutting gender themeDSGD; PIMCGIAR Research Program on Policies, Institutions, and Markets (PIM
Ghana’s agrifood system structure and drivers of transformation
No full textGhana experienced rapid economic growth with an annual GDP growth rate of 6.6 percent between 2009 and 2019 (GSS 2023). Restrictive COVID-19 policy measures in 2020 caused a slowdown in growth (Amewu et al. 2020), with the rate falling to just 0.5 percent in that year (World Bank 2023a). Economic growth rebounded to 5.4 percent in 2021, but this growth was fueled by excessive government borrowing to finance an ambitious public infrastructure campaign and ushered in a severe financial crisis in Ghana. By 2022, the fiscal deficit had reached almost 10 percent of GDP and the total debt-to-GDP ratio had skyrocketed to 90 percent, resulting in rampant inflation (32 percent year-on year), a doubling of interest rates (from 14 to 28 percent), and a sharp currency depreciation (40 percent) (World Bank 2023b; Naadi 2023). Economic growth slowed to 3.2 percent in 2022 and is projected to decline further to 1.6 percent in 2023 (World Bank 2023a). Although President Akuffo-Addo blamed “malevolent forces” (Financial Times 2023)—including the global commodity market shock caused by Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, which by some accounts had only a minimal effect on Ghana’s economy (Arndt et al. 2023; Diao and Thurlow 2023)—the economic situation eventually forced the government to agree to an IMF bailout of US$3 billion in 2023. This will be in force for three years.Non-PRIFPRI1; 4 Transforming Agricultural and Rural Economies; Capacity Strengthening; AFSdiagnosticsDevelopment Strategies and Governance (DSG); Foresight and Policy Modeling (FPM); Innovation Policy and Scaling (IPS); Transformation Strategie
Democratic Republic of Congo’s agrifood system structure and drivers of transformation
No full textAgriculture in the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) is dominated by subsistence farming. Households grow food mainly for their own consumption and sell only when they have a surplus. The main crops are cassava, maize, yams, plantains, and rice (FAO 2019). Commercial farming of cash crops such as coffee, palm oil, rubber, and sugar is done on a smaller scale. With constant political instability, infrastructure deficiencies, and lack of investment in DRC, the expansion and productivity of commercial farming have been constrained (World Bank 2020). Livestock and fisheries are also important agrifood subsectors and face constraints similar to the crop subsectors. Despite these challenges, DRC possesses robust agricultural potential due to its vast arable land resources, abundant water resources, and its diverse climatic conditions, which are suitable for a wide variety of crops. There is also potential for further development of the fisheries sector due to the country’s extensive river system and large lakes. In this brief, we look beyond primary agriculture to understand the recent performance of DRC’s broader agrifood system (AFS) and how it is contributing to growth and transformation in the country.Non-PRIFPRI1; 4 Transforming Agricultural and Rural Economies; Capacity Strengthening; AFSdiagnosticsDevelopment Strategies and Governance (DSG); Foresight and Policy Modeling (FPM); Innovation Policy and Scaling (IPS); Transformation Strategie