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econometric tests using microcomputer software
No full text"This ... is a manual outlining how to conduct some fairly basic econometric tests and procedures to determine the robustness of the estimated parameters upon which policy decisions are frequently based. ...[It] address[es] a number of issues relating to the choice of model variables, the choice of estimation method, and the sensitivity of results to missing or extreme data values"--P. vii.Non-PRTCSP; IFPRI1 training; IFPRI1DG
2018 Social Accounting Matrix for Nigeria
No full textThe Nexus Project is a collaboration between IFPRI and its partners, including national statistical agencies and research institutions. Our aim is to improve the quality of social accounting matrices (SAMs) used for computable general equilibrium (CGE) modeling. The Nexus Project develops toolkits and establishes common data standards, procedures, and classification systems for constructing and updating national SAMs. The 2018 Nigeria SAM follows the Standard Nexus Structure. The open access version of the Nigeria SAM separates domestic production into 42 activities. Factors are disaggregated into labor, agricultural land, and capital. Labor is further disaggregated across three education categories. Representative households are disaggregated by rural and urban areas and by per capita expenditure quintile. The remaining accounts include enterprises, government, taxes, savings-and-investment, and the rest of the word.IFPRI1;
CRP2;
Open Access; 4 Transforming Agricultural and Rural Economies;
1 Fostering Climate-Resilient and Sustainable Food Supply;
2 Promoting Healthy Diets and Nutrition for all;
3 Building Inclusive and Efficient Markets, Trade Systems, and Food Industry; SAM; Nexus; Nexus SAMsDSGD; PIMCGIAR Research Program on Policies, Institutions, and Markets (PIM
Ethiopia’s agrifood system structure and drivers of transformation
No full textEthiopia stands out as one of the fastest growing African countries between 2009 and 2019, with an average annual GDP growth rate close to 10 percent (ESS 2020). The global COVID-19 pandemic coupled with an armed civil conflict that started in November 2020 and continued for two years caused a significant slowdown in economic growth during the 2020–2022 period. Ethiopia’s GDP growth is now projected to recover to 5.3 percent in 2023 and 6.1 percent in 2024 (World Bank 2023), remaining well below the growth rates achieved in the pre-pandemic era. Agriculture remains an important sector in Ethiopia, accounting for one-third of GDP and two-thirds of jobs. The agriculture sector, like the broader economy, performed well prior to the pandemic and civil conflict, averaging 5.5 percent growth from 2009 to 2019 (ESS 2020), and played an important role in weathering the global commodity market shocks during 2022–2023 (Diao and Thurlow 2023). In this brief, we look beyond primary agriculture to understand how Ethiopia’s broader agrifood system (AFS) is contributing to growth and transformation in the country.Non-PRIFPRI1; 4 Transforming Agricultural and Rural Economies; Capacity Strengthening; AFSdiagnosticsDevelopment Strategies and Governance (DSG); Foresight and Policy Modeling (FPM); Transformation Strategies; Innovation Policy and Scaling (IPS
Longa: An automated speech recognition tool for Bantu languages
No full textFarm Radio International (FRI) and the CGIAR Research Initiative on Digital Innovation have col laborated on the development of an end-to-end, automatic speech recognition pipeline for the tran scription, translation, and analysis of Swahili and Luganda. This task is particularly challenging due to the number of languages used by FRI's clients and the limited training data available for speech recognition in African languages. The tool is named 'Longa', or 'Let's chat' in Swahili. Longa will be used to answer the surplus of phone calls currently being received from smallholder farmers asking questions about radio programs which FRI does not presently have the capacity to address. When fully implemented, Longa should allow FRI to design their broadcasts more intricately in line with the needs of farmers and better deliver insights to those most in need, such as female and youth farmers. Key results from the collaboration include a series of design principles iteratively and col laboratively developed to reflect the common values and goals of FRI and the CGIAR, a proof of concept for Longa, building on open-source models and open access corpora, to be shared with the developer community upon completion of the final tool, a 10% improvement upon the state-of-the art automatic speech recognition in Luganda radio-speech performance and accuracy, some im provement in performance with audio enhancement processes using real-world data, and proof that fine-tuning is an effective approach to expanding Longa to new languages. The next steps of the collaboration will focus on the analysis and interpretation of an aggregation of farmer phone calls and integration with the existing FRI workflow and software.Non-PRIFPRI1; DCANatural Resources and Resilience (NRR); Transformation Strategie
Exploring the potential of customized AI chatbots in food policy research: Capabilities and constraints in comparative perspective
No full textArtificial Intelligence (AI) tools are rapidly transforming the way people work, providing opportunities for improving efficiency, accelerating innovations, and supporting human decision making. The area of policymaking is no exception. To explore the advantages and disadvantages of customized chatbots for supporting food policy research, we created a virtual food policy expert using a customized AI system using training literature drawn from about two dozen food policy research reports or food policy documents. A range of questions seeking food policy advice were then posed to the chatbot to better understand the limits to its expertise, the accuracy of its responses, and the value it might offer users seeking specific advice to guide the formulation and implementation of food policy related strategies and programs. A relatively simple comparative assessment was made of the results obtained from asking the same food policy-related questions to different AI sources, including the customized AI virtual food policy expert. Overall, we found that AI -based chatbots can be useful tools for summarizing research and providing “first cut” information only. We also conclude that, while customized chatbots have the advantage of offering the possibility of uploading pre-selected papers, unless a large amount of information is uploaded or the chatbot is also allowed by design to draw on information from other sources including the internet, the responses the virtual coach provides may be limited to only a small and specific set of questions. To be more credible and useful for policymakers, chatbots need to be enabled to provide more specific information. For the foreseeable future, providing such detailed and often country-specific information will still be in the hands of human experts.Non-PRIFPRI1Natural Resources and Resilience (NRR); Transformation Strategie
IFPRI Malawi monthly maize market report, November 2023
No full textThe Monthly Maize Market Report was developed by researchers at IFPRI Malawi with the goal of providing clear and accurate information on the variation of maize prices in selected markets throughout Malawi. The reports are intended as a resource for those interested in maize markets in Malawi, namely producers, traders, consumers, policy makers, and other agricultural stakeholders.Non-PRIFPRI1; MaSSP; 3 Building Inclusive and Efficient Markets, Trade Systems, and Food IndustryDevelopment Strategies and Governance (DSG); Transformation Strategie
Aflatoxin contamination of maize flour in Kenya: Results from multi-city, multi-round surveillance
No full textThis research was undertaken to characterise the level and distribution of aflatoxin contamination of maize flour, a key food safety concern in Kenya. More than 1,200 samples of maize flour were collected and analyzed over the course of one year, allowing a robust characterization of relative risk across geography and product type. Informally milled flour was found to be significantly more contaminated than branded flour, a result attributable to the refining process applied to this flour. The results of this study can be used to inform messaging to consumers about the relative riskiness of informally versus formally milled flour, and for geographical targeting of resources for aflatoxin mitigation.Non-PRIFPRI1; 2 Promoting Healthy Diets and Nutrition for all; 3 Building Inclusive and Efficient Markets, Trade Systems, and Food Industry; DCA; CRP4Markets, Trade, and Institutions (MTI); Food and Nutrition PolicyCGIAR Research Program on Agriculture for Nutrition and Health (A4NH
Agricultural production in Tajikistan: Evidence from twelve districts in Khatlon Province, 2015–2023
No full textSurvey data from 2000 households in 12 districts of Khatlon Province, USAID’s Zone of Influence (ZOI), were analyzed to document changes in the agriculture sector between 2015 and 2023.
Key findings
• Participation in agriculture remained constant at 85 percent of households, yet the average cultivated area significantly decreased from 2015 to 2023, likely due to the parallel increase in the number of households in the study area as well as the further division of dehkan farms.
• Cropping patterns have changed since 2015. Among others, we find a stark increase in cultivation of maize, whereas cotton is grown at similar frequency but on a significantly smaller average plot area. Overall, we observe a positive increase in the diversity of (semi-)annual crops.
• Mechanization is used for land preparation of plots for nearly all major crops now, up from much lower levels in 2015. Mechanization for harvesting significantly increased on plots with fodder crops (from 6 percent to 15 percent) and maize plots (from 2 percent to 8 percent). Most households rely on rental services as few own the needed machinery.
• More households have water pumps, greenhouses, and cold storage, and more household and presidential plots having irrigation in 2023 than in 2015. Agricultural innovations including drip irrigation and solar panels also emerge but are still implemented at very low levels (<1 percent).
• Cattle ownership declined from 2015 to 2023 and, accordingly, fewer households have cows producing milk (40 percent vs. 33 percent). This may—at least partly—explain the lower rates of dairy consumption observed among female respondents in 2023.
• Poultry ownership increased dramatically (from 7 percent to 25 percent) and is now owned at similar rates across different types of households, including more vulnerable or disadvantaged households. Accordingly, there is more household-level consumption of eggs in the survey area.Non-PRIFPRI1; 4 Transforming Agricultural and Rural Economies; 5 Strengthening Institutions and Governance; TEAADevelopment Strategies and Governance (DSG); Transformation Strategie
Do informational videos impact awareness, knowledge, and adoption of climate-smart agricultural practices? Insights from rural Uganda
No full textUganda is highly vulnerable to adverse impacts from climate change, including erratic rainfall patterns, prolonged droughts, and increased frequency of pests and diseases. While many climate-smart agricultural (CSA) practices have been identified, a gender gap in access to and adoption of these practices persists. This study tested par ticipatory video-based extension to reach underserved women and men farmers in parts of central Uganda and assessed its impacts on gendered awareness, knowledge, and adoption of CSA practices as well as women’s empowerment. We find limited impacts on awareness and knowledge and significant impacts for the adoption of several CSA practices. We also find some improvement in women’s decision-making but a decline in their group membership. We propose strategies to strengthen the uptake of CSA practices that can be implemented along side participatory video-based extension.Non-PRIFPRI1; 1 Fostering Climate-Resilient and Sustainable Food Supply; Reaching Smallholder WomenNatural Resources and Resilience (NRR); Transformation Strategie
IFPRI Malawi Monthly Maize Market Report, July 2024
No full textThe Monthly Maize Market Report was developed by researchers at IFPRI Malawi to provide clear and accurate information on the variation of maize prices in selected markets throughout Malawi. All prices are reported in Malawi Kwacha (K).MaSSPDevelopment Strategies and Governance (DSG