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Food as the “silent weapon”: Russia’s gains and Ukraine’s losses
No full textRussia’s war in Ukraine has caused the greatest military-related disruption to global agricultural markets in at least a century. Ukraine’s agricultural sector has been a major front in Russia’s war since February 2022, and the primary purpose of Russia’s targeting of Ukraine’s agricultural infrastructure is likely to undercut a main source of Ukraine’s income. Ukraine’s GDP contracted by more than 29 percent in 2022 compared to 2021, and the value of agriculture as a proportion of Ukraine’s GDP was 39 percent lower in 2022 than 2021.Markets, Trade, and Institutions (MTI
Community and household shocks: Findings from the seventh round of the Myanmar Household Welfare Survey (January–June 2024)
No full textThe seventh round of the Myanmar Household Welfare Survey (MHWS), a nationally and regionally representative phone survey, was implemented between April and June 2024. It follows six rounds that were carried out since the beginning of December 2021. This report discusses the findings from the seventh round related to shocks including conflict, climatic, service sector, and economic. The security situation in Myanmar continued to worsen during the seventh-round recall period, which spanned from January to June 2024. Households felt insecure in their communities, as reported by 23 percent of households, and had low levels of trust in their communities, as reported also by 23 percent of households. This is because crime and violence remained high, affecting 16 and 9 percent of communities, respectively. Lawlessness continues to be a widespread issue in Myanmar. In January–June 2024, 18 percent of households reported a lot or some gambling in their community and 13 percent reported drug use. These issues were more prominent in urban areas, compared to rural areas. A new challenge is risk of conscription, reported by 39 percent of households. Another crucial challenge is that 13 percent of respondents felt that it was dangerous for them to move around and do everyday tasks. Finally, three percent of respondents revealed that there was a risk of kidnapping in their community.MyanmarSSPDevelopment Strategies and Governance (DSG
Nigeria school feeding program: Train the trainers training manual
No full textNSSPDevelopment Strategies and Governance (DSG); Poverty, Gender, and Inclusion (PGI
Securing food for all in Bangladesh: Synopsis
No full textSecuring Food for All in Bangladesh presents an array of research that collectively addresses four broad issues: (1) agricultural technology adoption; (2) input use and agricultural productivity; (3) food security and output markets; and (4) poverty, food security, and women’s empowerment. The fifteen chapters of the book address diverse aspects within these four themes.Non-PRIFPRI2; PRSSP; CRP2; DCA; Bangladesh Agricultural Policy ActivityPHND; DGO; PIMCGIAR Research Program on Policies, Institutions, and Markets (PIM
Zambia’s agrifood system structure and drivers of transformation
No full textZambia experienced modest economic growth of 4.8 percent per year between 2010 and 2019 (ZamStats 2020). Most growth occurred in the earlier part of the decade. After world commodity prices fell in 2014, the GDP growth rate slowed to an annual rate of 3.1 percent (for 2014–2019), which is below the country’s population growth rate. The global COVID-19 pandemic further damaged the economy and GDP declined by 2.8 percent in 2020. The global commodity market disruptions related to the Russia Ukraine war that started in 2022 and the global recession in 2023 are expected to further harm Zambia’s economy (Arndt et al. 2023; Diao and Thurlow 2023). Zambia’s projected GDP growth rate is 3.9 percent for 2023 and 4.1 percent for 2024 (World Bank 2023). Its economy relies heavily on exports of copper and other minerals. While mining is a large sector in total GDP, it creates few jobs in the country. Agriculture remains important in employment, accounting for near 40 percent of jobs. In this brief, we unpack the historical and projected economic growth trajectory further to better understand the role of agriculture as well as the broader agrifood system (AFS) in the performance and transformation of the economy of Zambia.Non-PRIFPRI1; 4 Transforming Agricultural and Rural Economies; Capacity Strengthening; AFSdiagnosticsDevelopment Strategies and Governance (DSG); Foresight and Policy Modeling (FPM); Innovation Policy and Scaling (IPS); Transformation Strategie
Madagascar’s agrifood system structure and drivers of transformation
No full textMadagascar’s economy showed little progress during the decade from 2009 to 2019, growing at an average rate of just 2.9 percent per year, which is only marginally higher than the population growth rate of 2.7 percent (World Bank 2023). The global COVID-19 pandemic pushed the economy into negative growth in 2020, while drought, flooding, and storm damages in 2021 and 2022 had further adverse impacts on the economy. Current projections suggest the economy will achieve growth of 4.2 percent in 2023 and 4.6 percent in 2024, which are well above pre-pandemic growth rates (World Bank 2023). Agriculture is a relatively important sector in Madagascar, accounting for nearly 30 percent of GDP and more than 60 percent of employment. The poor performance of the agriculture sector in the 2009 to 2019 period—the sector grew at only 0.5 percent per year—was an important reason for weak growth overall (INSTAT 2020). In this brief, we unpack the historical and projected economic growth trajectory further to better understand the role of agriculture as well as the broader agrifood system (AFS) in the performance and transformation of the economy of Madagascar.Non-PRIFPRI1; 4 Transforming Agricultural and Rural Economies; Capacity Strengthening; AFSdiagnosticsDevelopment Strategies and Governance (DSG); Foresight and Policy Modeling (FPM); Innovation Policy and Scaling (IPS); Transformation Strategie
Baseline survey report of the Strengthen PSNP Institutions and Resilience phase II (SPIR II) resilience food security activity in Ethiopia
No full textThe objective of this report is to present results from the baseline survey conducted as part of the Implementer-Led Evaluation and Learning (IMPEL) evaluation of SPIR II, a randomized controlled trial launched in 2022. The second phase of the Strengthen PSNP Institutions and Resilience (SPIR) Resilience Food Security Activity (RFSA) aims to enhance livelihoods, increase resilience to shocks, and improve food security and nutrition for rural households vulnerable to food insecurity in Ethiopia. The RFSA is situated within Ethiopia’s Productive Safety Net Program (PSNP), one of the largest safety net programs in Africa. Funded by USAID’s Bureau for Humanitarian Assistance (BHA), SPIR II is implemented by World Vision International (lead), CARE, and ORDA in the Amhara and Oromia regions of Ethiopia. The IMPEL SPIR II impact evaluation employs an experimental design with three arms, comparing two treatment combinations of livelihood and nutrition graduation model programming provided to PSNP beneficiaries relative to a control group receiving only PSNP transfers. The treatment assignment is randomized at kebele level in 234 kebeles. In the first arm (the control group), PSNP is implemented by the government with SPIR II support for the provision of cash and food transfers only (no supplemental programming). In the second arm, SPIR II programming is rolled out to PSNP beneficiary households in conjunction with nurturing care groups (NCGs) targeting enhanced infant and young child nutritional practices. In the third arm, PSNP beneficiary households receive SPIR II programming and NCGs, supplemented with additional targeted cash grants to pregnant and lactating women.Non-PRIFPRI2; 2 Promoting Healthy Diets and Nutrition for all; SPIRDevelopment Strategies and Governance (DSG); Transformation Strategies; Poverty, Gender, and Inclusion (PGI); Food and Nutrition Polic
Kenya's agrifood system: Overview and drivers of transformation
No full textThe 2010s were a decade of strong economic development in Kenya. Gross domestic product (GDP)—an indicator of the economy’s size—expanded by an average of 5 percent per year (KNBS 2022). This exceeded popula tion growth and helped raise household incomes, leading to a decline in poverty rates and, more importantly, in the number of poor people, for the first time in at least three decades (World Bank 2022). Agriculture played an important role in this. The sector grew alongside the rest of the economy, despite facing many challenges, including climate variability (Ochieng et al. 2020), weak rural infrastructure (Benin and Odjo 2018), shrinking farm sizes (Jayne et al. 2016), and inaccessibility of farm inputs combined with poor agronomic management (Worku et al. 2020). Agriculture, as part of the broader food system, also contributed to growth in downstream or off-farm sectors and helped cushion the economic damage resulting from COVID-19 in 2020 (Pauw, Smart, and Thurlow 2021).PRIFPRI4; 3 Building Inclusive and Efficient Markets, Trade Systems, and Food IndustryDevelopment Strategies and Governance (DSG); Transformation Strategie
Food safety in Kenya: Status, challenges, and proposed solutions
No full textFoodborne disease—that is, disease caused by consuming foods contaminated with biological or chemical hazards—is an important and often underrecognized public health concern in low- and middle-income countries around the world, including Kenya. While comprehensive national statistics on the foodborne disease burden are not available, the best available evidence from the region indicates that diseases transmitted via contaminated food have a greater impact on public health in Africa than either tuberculosis or diabetes (Havelaar et al. 2015; GBDCN 2016). Beyond its contribution to illness and death, foodborne disease also plays a role in child stunting, which remains a persistent problem in Kenya, affecting 16 percent of children (KNBS and ICF 2023). One study based on 20 years of data from 5 countries attributed 25 percent of stunting to repeated diarrheal episodes (Checkley et al. 2008), many of which can be traced to microbial contamination of food.PRIFPRI4; 2 Promoting Healthy Diets and Nutrition for allDevelopment Strategies and Governance (DSG); Transformation Strategie
Livestock sector transformation in Kenya: Current state and projections for the future
No full textThe livestock sector plays a major role in the Kenyan food system, contributing about 12 percent of the country’s overall GDP and 40 percent of agricultural GDP, and employing about half of the agricultural labor force (Kenya Markets Trust 2019a). The livestock sector also contributes 22 percent of food system GDP. Projections from the Kenya National Bureau of Statistics (KNBS) indicate that the country’s population will continue to grow, and may reach around 96 million by 2050, with nearly 50 percent residing in urban areas by then compared with 27 percent in 2019 (FAO 2019; MacMillan 2019). Demand for animal-source foods is expected to grow substantially with this population growth and as higher numbers of affluent and more urban consumers seek nutrient-rich foods and more diversified diets (FAO 2019). This change in demand could potentially drive exponential growth in the livestock sector, generating new business opportunities along various livestock value chains. Realizing such growth will require concerted investments to support increased productivity and enhanced natural resource management, including enhanced water availability and management, to ensure sustainable growth of the sector (ILRI 2019; Bosire et al. 2022).PRIFPRI4; 1 Fostering Climate-Resilient and Sustainable Food SupplyDevelopment Strategies and Governance (DSG); Transformation Strategie