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The importance and determinants of purchases in rural food consumption in Africa: implications for food security strategies
We analyze rural households’ purchases of food (cereals and non-cereals) in Sub-Saharan Africa using nationally representative data with 65,000 observations covering 7 countries over a decade. We distinguish between three strata of countries: lower stratum in income and urbanization, middle stratum, and upper stratum. The paper breaks ground by the breadth and time length of the sample. We find that purchases form the majority of rural food consumption whether in favorable or unfavorable agroecological zones and over country and income strata and for most food products. Rural nonfarm employment (as a cash source) plays an important role in household food purchases across all study countries and food products. Policy implications include the importance of food purchase markets and supply chains to and in rural areas as well as nonfarm employment.Markets, Trade, and Institutions (MTI); Food and Nutrition Polic
Estimating seed demand in the presence of market frictions: evidence from an auction experiment in Nigeria
This paper measures the effect of seed quality misperceptions on bidding behavior and demand for high-quality seed using an information-provision experiment within an incentive-compatible Vickery Second Price (SPA) auction mechanism that mimics seed purchasing decisions in the presence of seed market frictions. We find that most individuals are prone to quality misperception and revise their bids upwards (downwards) in response to positive (negative) quality signals. In addition, by exploiting random variation in the timing of cash grants, we show that imperfect information influences farmer seed valuation, even in the presence of potentially binding liquidity constraints. We also demonstrate that the provision of quality information does not fully resolve quality misperceptions. We then show that unresolved or persistent misperception is severe enough to distort bidding behavior, and ignoring it could lead to biased willingness-to-pay estimates. Our findings have important implications both for improving inference related to the identification and estimation of willingness to pay for quality seed in the presence of market frictions, and for the design of seed sector polices in developing countries.Poverty, Gender, and Inclusion (PGI); Food and Nutrition Polic
A multi-sectoral community development intervention has a positive impact on diet quality and growth in school-age children in rural Nepal
Poor diet quality (diet diversity and animal-source food [ASF] consumption) during childhood negatively affects growth, development, behaviour and physiologic function in later life. Relatively less is known about the impact of poor diet on the growth of school-age children compared to children <5 years of age, especially in low/middle-income countries. A better understanding of delivery strategies for effective interventions to improve diet and hence growth in school-age children is needed. A 36-month longitudinal controlled impact evaluation in rural Nepal assessed the nutrition and growth of children <5 years of age in families assigned via community clusters to full package intervention (community development, training in nutrition [during pregnancy and for children <5 years] and livestock husbandry), partial package (training only) or control (no inputs). Concurrent data were collected prospectively (baseline plus additional four rounds) on school-age children (5–8 years at baseline) in these households; the present study analysed findings in the cohort of school-age children seen at all five study visits (n = 341). Diet quality improved more in the full package school-age children compared to those in partial package or control households. full package children consumed more ASF (β +0.40 [CI 0.07,0.73], p < 0.05), more diverse diets (β +0.93 [CI 0.55,1.31], p < 0.001) and had better head circumference z-scores (β +0.21 [CI 0.07,0.35], p < 0.01) than control children. In conclusion, a multi-sectoral community development intervention was associated with improvements in diet and growth of school-age children in rural Nepal even though the intervention focused on the diet of children <5 years of age. The diet and growth of school-age children can be favourably influenced by community-level interventions, even indirectly.Ultra-Poor Graduation in SomaliaNutrition, Diets, and Health (NDH); Food and Nutrition Polic
Burden of disease scenarios for 204 countries and territories, 2022–2050: a forecasting analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021
BACKGROUND Future trends in disease burden and drivers of health are of great interest to policy makers and the public at large. This information can be used for policy and long-term health investment, planning, and prioritisation. We have expanded and improved upon previous forecasts produced as part of the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) and provide a reference forecast (the most likely future), and alternative scenarios assessing disease burden trajectories if selected sets of risk factors were eliminated from current levels by 2050. INTERPRETATION Globally, life expectancy and age-standardised disease burden were forecasted to improve between 2022 and 2050, with the majority of the burden continuing to shift from CMNNs to NCDs. That said, continued progress on reducing the CMNN disease burden will be dependent on maintaining investment in and policy emphasis on CMNN disease prevention and treatment. Mostly due to growth and ageing of populations, the number of deaths and DALYs due to all causes combined will generally increase. By constructing alternative future scenarios wherein certain risk exposures are eliminated by 2050, we have shown that opportunities exist to substantially improve health outcomes in the future through concerted efforts to prevent exposure to well established risk factors and to expand access to key health interventions.Nutrition, Diets, and Health (NDH
Addressing parent-adolescent roles and interactions to improve adolescents’ diets in Ethiopia
Objectives: Adolescence is a critical period of development and habit formation including healthy dietary practices. Nutrition education interventions were implemented in government primary schools in rural Ethiopia. This study examined (1) the impact of interventions on nutrition knowledge, parent-adolescent interactions, and parental food control; and (2) the relationships among knowledge, interaction, and food control on adolescents’ diets. Methods: We used endline survey data from a cluster-randomized program evaluation, among adolescent girls aged 10-14 years (N=536) enrolled across 54 primary schools. Interventions included specialized school-based nutrition education activities, and the control received standard school curriculum. Descriptive statistics were used to assess the differences between program groups. Multivariable regression analysis was used to assess factors associated with diets (dietary diversity, meal frequency, and junk food consumption), adjusting for covariates at adolescent, parental and household levels and school clustering. Structural equation models were used to assess the relationships among the intervention, knowledge, interactions, and food control on diets. Results: Adolescents in intervention schools, compared to control schools, had higher nutrition knowledge (mean score: 10.7 vs. 8.1, range 0-13), higher interactions with their parents (score: 8.6 vs. 8.1, range 0-10), and higher parental food control (score: 7.6 vs. 6.5, range 0-10). Higher parent-adolescent interaction (β=0.23-0.46), parents’ nutrition knowledge (β=0.28-0.73), and parental food control (β=0.23-0.41) were associated with higher dietary diversity and meal frequency. Higher parents’ education level was associated with lower junk food consumption among adolescents (OR=0.55). Interventions had largest direct effects on nutrition knowledge and parental food control and directly on adolescents’ dietary diversity and meal frequency. Exposure to food advertisements was mainly associated with junk food consumption. Conclusions: Parental roles and interactions between parents and adolescents, along with the food environment, need to be addressed to improve adolescents’ diets.Nutrition, Diets, and Health (NDH
Involving influential men’s groups to promote maternal and child nutrition practices increased diet diversity and egg consumption despite rising insecurity in the Sahel
Objectives: A two-arm cluster randomized trial was designed to compare 2 approaches of behavior change communication for improved nutrition and women’s empowerment practices. Both intervention arms received monthly training sessions using village saving and loans associations (VSLA) as main delivery platform, while in one arm, influential men’s groups (called EBENE) were also trained to promote improved nutrition and women’s empowerment practices. Methods: Data were collected after one year of implementation in June and August 2023 through phone surveys in a composite sample of women pre-identified before the intervention including members of VSLA, women interested in VSLA and women of the general population. Mixed-effects regression models using fixed effects for treatment exposure and random effects at cluster level, were used to assess differential effects of the interventions on program participation, and knowledge and practices related to diets and women’s empowerment. Adjusted models estimated the effects of insecurity and of the EBENE intervention in the context of insecurity, adjusting for baseline characteristics associated to insecurity prior to its onset, to account for its non-random nature. Results: Unadjusted analyses found participation rates of 44% and 38% for training on nutrition and gender respectively, with no significant differences between intervention groups. The EBENE intervention was found to increase the likelihood that women felt encouraged by men to improve dietary practices and that women and children consumed poultry and eggs. Adjusted analyses suggested that though insecurity had a negative effect on program participation and diet diversity, the EBENE intervention had a protective effect on diet diversity in areas with higher insecurity. The EBENE intervention was found to have protective effects on women’s mobility, group membership and participation in decisions related to poultry production. Conclusions: In the context of increasing insecurity, nutrition and women’s empowerment behavior change promoted through VSLA platforms can be boosted by engaging influential men’s to promote improved practices. Further research is needed to better understand the costs and mechanisms involved.Nutrition, Diets, and Health (NDH
Africa Agriculture Trade Monitor 2024
The 2024 AATM investigates critical issues related to African agricultural trade. As in previous editions of the report, we have developed a database that corrects discrepancies in trade flow values, as reported by importing and exporting countries, as the basis for analyzing Africa’s international, domestic, and regional economic community (REC) trade. Given the pressing need to address climate change and curb greenhouse gas emissions, this year’s AATM takes an in-depth look at the relationship between climate change, water use, and emissions and African agricultural trade.Markets, Trade, and Institutions (MTI); CP
The unmet financial needs of intermediary firms within agri-food value chains in Uganda and Bangladesh
Intermediary firms within agri-food value chains operating between the farmgate and retailers typically account for at least as much, if not more, value added as the primary agricultural production sector of the economy, but little is known about how these small and largely informal firms conduct their business. Drawing on a set of innovative surveys implemented amid the arabica coffee and soybean value chains in Uganda and the rice and potato value chains in Bangladesh, we describe the financial activities of the firms that transform agricultural produce into food. We document four sets of results. First, across all intermediary actors in our data the overwhelming majority of transactions are cash-based. Second, although many intermediary actors are un-banked, access to financial accounts varies considerably by value chain segment, commodity, and country. Third, while most intermediary actors report using mobile money for personal purposes, especially in Uganda, very few use mobile money to facilitate business transactions. Fourth, although intermediary actors frequently report exposure to risk, very few effectively manage this risk. We conclude by discussing how intermediary agri-food value chain actors represent an underappreciated population for the promotion of new technologies both to improve the stability of the agricultural sector and to improve outcomes among smallholder farmers.Markets, Trade, and Institutions (MTI
Making the CAADP BR forward looking: A decision support tool for transforming African agrifood systems
This paper presents an Excel-based interactive decision-support tool that policymakers and development practitioners can use to evaluate policy options to achieve targeted outcomes of the Malabo Declaration at the country level. The tool is based on a partial equilibrium simulation model that allows the user to simulate different scenarios based on the desired level of change in one outcome or more. For each scenario that is created, the simulated results provide information on the level of change required in each of the policies included in the model, the level of change in the other outcomes included in the model, and the allocation of the resources provided, including reallocation of some of the existing resources. A prototype of the tool that is developed using the fourth biennial review (BR) data on Ghana, which has some quality issues, is presented to demonstrate the potential features and utility of the tool. Limitations of the model and further work that is required to develop the actual tool for reliable policy evaluation are discussed. The latter includes using accurate data on the various indicators and expanding it to cover more years, in addition to developing a web-based interactive version of the tool.CAADP BRDevelopment Strategies and Governance (DSG