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Kashmir Militancy After 370: An Assessment of Pakistan’s Proxy War
Full text linkIndia’s peaceful abrogation of Article 370 was a major geopolitical setback and an intelligence failure for Pakistan. In one stroke, India severely dented Pakistan’s complex and layered infrastructure of militancy. Contrary to expectations when there was no widespread backlash against it, the ISI-masterminds pressurised the local terrorist organisations and Islamist groups to execute a large-scale terror attack or orchestrate a massive civil uprising. However, when they failed, clueless and perplexed Pakistan made drastic strategic and tactical changes in running Kashmir’s militancy to gain its lost ground. The most significant change was to minimise the role of local terrorist groups like Hizbul Mujahidin (HM) and strengthen the foreign terrorist groups like Lashkar-e-Taiba (LeT), Jaish-e-Muhammad (JeM), and Al Badr as the leading groups. While to elude the Financial Action Task Force (FATF) scrutiny, many front organisations were created such as the LeT-led The Resistance Front (TRF) that emerged as the most active offshoot, claiming most terror attacks after 370. Another significant development is the emergence of Turkey as a critical stakeholder in Kashmir’s conflict theatre- working on multiple fronts ranging from militancy, diplomacy to inciting civil unrest. Given this context, the paper discusses and critically analyses the strategic and tactical changes ushered in by Pakistan in Kashmir’s proxy war after the abrogation of Article 370
India-Iran Relations and the Afghanistan Factor
Full text linkPost-America’s chaotic withdrawal and the resurgence of Taliban in Afghanistan, India’s development and assistance prospects in the country demand stability under the interim regime. Likewise, New Delhi’s Chabahar port development – an initiative along with Iran – seems to remain stalled until the situation in Afghanistan steadies down. With India not being invited (under Pakistani and Chinese objections) in any of the extended troika meetings initiated by Russia, it is imperative for India to develop a one-to-one discussion with the interim government as the country has invested over US$3 billion for Afghanistan reconstruction and development in various aspects. Towards the end of August, India initiated its first public meeting with the Taliban in Doha wherein Indian concerns on the continuation of its developmental efforts in Afghanistan, progress on Chabahar development (though the issue was not explicitlymentioned), and insistence on Taliban not supporting any terror outfits that may harm Indian national security were the prime areas of discussions amongst others. While Afghanistan remains important for India for a host of reasons, the latter’s continued engagement is crucial in maintaining its relations with Iran with which India has had a tumultuous relationship of late owing to the American sanctions on that country. 
Note From the Editor: Summer 2021
No full textWith 2021 marking the commencement of the third decade of the 21st century, the world has been in a state of flux defined by the rapidly changing security environment. With the envelope of geopolitical and geostrategic challenges continuously expanding in form and magnitude, it has broadened the context of national security. The changes in the geopolitical and the geostrategic contexts have also transformed the understanding of warfare. The nature, character, and form of warfare and war are constantly evolving. In this process, the use of ‘technology’ has been an integral factor in changing the nature of the conduct of warfare thus, further expanding the nature as well as the scope of the unwarranted risks
Armenia-Azerbaijan Conflict: Implications for India
Full text linkArmenia-Azerbaijan conflict in September-November 2020, was followed keenly by military strategists across the world. It was the firsttime a nation had been comprehensively defeated by the use of drone warfare. The changing nature of warfare and the use of disruptive emerging technologies to change the tide of battle was an issue of interest across the world. The employment of drones on the battlefield of Nagorno-Karabakh had been a game-changer for Azerbaijani forces which destroyed the Armenian air defence (AD) resources, mech columns, and arty guns. The low-cost option of employment of drones by Azerbaijan in non-contact yet highly kinetic warfare resulted in minimizing their own casualties and ensuring a crushing defeat for Armenia. As India embarks on the modernization of its Armed Forces in line with its growing stature on the world stage, there has to be a balance struck between the acquisition of conventional weapon platforms and the embracement of new emerging technologies in India’s strategicsecurity calculus. There is a need for the building of anti-access bubbles as deterrence which are difficult to penetrate and the use of technologies that provide leverage in this competitive space
Face Off: Analysis of India’s Capability to Fight a Two Front War : KW Publishers, New Delhi (2021) ISBN 978-93-89137-92-7, 616 pp.
No full textThe book Face-Off: Analysis of India’s Capability to Fight a Two-Front War by Ravi Rikhye, a distinguished author with 35 books to his credit and expertise in military matters offers a detailed narration of India’s capability to fight a two-front war. It is a well-researched book that presents cogent arguments on the subject of India’s capability to fight a two-front war
Internal Security and Economic Cost of Violence: An Analysis
Full text linkSouth Asia is one of the most unstable and volatile regions of the world and stands second least peaceful region out of nine regions that were evaluated by the Institute for Economics and Peace (IEP). The ranking of the peacefulness of most of the South Asian countries is also rather low. In a developing country like India, the economic cost of violence at 5 percent of its GDP is too high. The causes of internal conflicts can be attributed to factors like ineffectiveness of the governance systems, sub-nationalism, deprivations, discrimination, social injustice, ethnic, sectarian, and religious polarisation, socio-economic exclusion, identity crisis, and competition for fast depleting crucial resources. These conflicts manifest in the form of insurgencies, terrorism, low-intensity armed conflicts, civil wars, and related political violence. There is a definite relationship between terrorism and internal armed conflicts, as both generally follow near similar contours. The terrorists have tried to destroy the very idea of India – democratic, secular, growth-oriented economy, excellence in IT and industry.
Almost all elements of national power have a role - direct or indirect - on matters of national security, to suppress internal armedconflicts, and finally to resolve them. The legitimate aspirations and grievances of the people must be identified region-wise and addressed with a sense of urgency. The Government needs to formulate a comprehensive National Security Strategy (CNSS), to give a definite direction to the role of each element of national power in the short and long term, and minimize its economic cost of violence
Military Diplomacy: An Appraisal in the Indian Context
Full text linkDefence Diplomacy is an integral part of foreign policy and state security, it helps in increasing military cooperation between thecountries and strengthening relations between the states. India’s growing global outreach and vibrancy of its foreign policy can begauged by the fact that it has made substantial efforts in defence and security cooperation, however, India’s defence diplomacy effortsdo not commensurate to its rising global status, since all tools of defence diplomacy have not been used optimally. In this context, thepaper argues for the need to revisit and formulate a strategy that is aligned with India’s foreign policy. It is because defence diplomacy is vital for a state to not only ensure its stable and strong international position but is also significant in shaping a structured and functional security policy
Biological Warfare: An Emerging Threat of the Future
Full text linkWe are living in a geo-politically transforming world, forcing nations to persistently engage in cooperation, competition, cooperation, and even conflict. While the potential global threat and disastrous consequences of biological warfare were known to the domain and few security experts, this threat has come to the forefront and greater scrutiny ever since the outbreak of the COVID-19 pandemic. The mind-boggling numbers of human fatalities and casualties, it\u27s spiraling and continuing destructive potential (evolving mutations), along with consequences to the global economy and way of life has clearly illustrated that the biological threat can be even moredevastating than nuclear, because they can persist, propagate, and spread through a population globally. Unfortunately, the existing agreements/conventions specially the Biological Warfare Convention (BWC), signedand ratified almost universally (183 nations), is widely acknowledged, butlacks compliance monitoring and verification mechanisms- making it farfrom effective in controlling biological weapons (BW). In this perspective,the paper examines the emerging threat of biological warfare and theimplications it holds for the world at large and India in particular
Restructuring for India’s Disputed Borders: An Appraisal
Full text linkIn the present geopolitical melee, the tools of strategic coercion and conflicts are finding new ways to achieve the desired end. The need today is to restructure and reshape a ‘big war military with smart, lean, agile and combined arms joint warfare smart capabilities’. India’s military strategy must focus on ‘offensive domination with maneuver warfare orientation rather than attritionist ground holding mindsets. The restructuring philosophy will accordingly need to focus on a ‘capability-based approach with deterrence based on denial’. The operational need is to move from large bulky formations to modular technology-enabled networked Brigades and Divisional sized Integrated Battle Groups (IBGs). The challenge is to restructure in an institutionalized time-bound manner that is neither too much too soon nor too little too late
The Design in China’s Actions and Behaviour: An Assessment
Full text linkOn its foundation in 1949, securing its strategic periphery and annexation of Tibet and Xinjiang was one of the primary goals of thePeople’s Republic of China (PRC). With the multiple aims of achieving economic, strategic, and political dominance, China has furtherenhanced its connectivity with Asia, Africa, and Eurasia by its Belt and Road initiative (BRI). Considering the rapidly changing geopolitics and economic challenges, the Chinese, as part of their long-term designs, have whipped up ‘nationalism’ by multiple means. The military interventions, assertiveness, and expansionism have been based on a design to serve its national interests—especially the economic, political, and strategic ones. The boundary dispute between India and China continues to remain unresolved, due to certain designs of the PRC. It is important to analyse the strategic significance of Eastern Ladakh, especially when additional security personnel has been inducted into the Gilgit Baltistan region by China as part of the China Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC).Despite the border management mechanisms and confidence-building measures (CBMs) in place and the periodic engagements at different levels, the PLA surprised the Indians by contacting and/or transgressing across the Line of Actual Control (LAC) on a wide front in Eastern Ladakh in May 2020. Thus, China’s designs call for India to improve its preparedness, and review its policy, pursue its goals and maintain peace and stability in the region