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Time-Varying and Quantile-Based Relationship among Geopolitical Risks, Oil and Gold Prices
Full text linkThis paper probes the relationship between geopolitical risks (GPR), WTI oil, and gold prices utilizing the time-varying causality and quantile regression approaches. The sample period spans from January 1986 to January 2022, comprising 433 monthly observations and representing the longest common period of data availability. The results show that there is no causality between the pairs of GPR–WTI, and GPR–gold prices for the full sample period, while the causality between gold and WTI is unidirectional, running from gold to WTI. Using the rolling causality test, however, the findings show that the dynamic causal relations strengthen over time. The Granger causality from the gold prices to GPR and WTI is stronger than the other way around, suggesting that the gold market dominates the other two variables in terms of strength of the lead-lag structure of causality. Besides, the findings reveal the strongest causation effects between GPR and WTI spot prices. Before 2009, the causal relationship between WTI and GPR is mostly unidirectional while also a bidirectional linkage emerges, coinciding with the crisis periods including the Dot-Com and 2007 US Subprime crises. During the causal periods, these variables respond negatively to changes in others. For the COVID19 period, the direction of causality considerably changes in favor of WTI for the GPR–WTI pair whereas it is unchanged for the WTI–gold pair. The results indicate that WTI has positive and negative predictive powers for GPR and gold while it receives negative and positive causation effects from GPR and gold during the pandemic, respectively. The results, in overall, may offer important insights for investors and regulatory authorities in building portfolio and risk management strategies as well as pricing and trading activities and constructing monetary policies over various market conditions
An Investigation of the Influence of Economic Growth on Taxes in Lithuania
Full text linkThe level of economic interstate competition has been growing significantly in recent decades. Countries are constantly trying to apply lower tax rates to attract large businesses to their territory. They are also trying to improve the efficiency of tax collection on their area of jurisdiction. The paper examines how economic growth affects Lithuania’s tax collections. Based on quarterly data of the 2002–2022 period, ARDL models for the main types of taxes were considered. We find that for all types of taxes, the models have the same structure, which allows comparing the impact of gross domestic product on tax collections both in the short term and in the long term. Analysis showed that the largest reserves are in the corporate sector, where the growth in tax revenues exceeds gross domestic product growth by 115%. The long-term effect for general taxes is almost 19% higher than the growth of the tax base, that is, the Lithuanian economy as a whole has a tendency for a reduction of the shadow economy, which means that there are significant opportunities for further growth
The Relationship Between Geopolitical Risk and Credit Default Swap Premium: Evidence from Turkey*
Full text linkThis study investigates the relationship between the geopolitical risk in Turkey arising out of the war and terror incidents happened in the region during the period 2003:01-2020:06 with the CDS premium. A two-step approach is undertaken for this assessment, in which an ARDL limit test and then a time-varying symmetric and asymmetric causality test are applied to study the possible causality vis-a-vis the subperiods. The ARDL limit test does not reject the hypothesis that there is a co-integrated relationship between CDS premium and geopolitical risk index. In addition, the time-varying symmetric and asymmetric test also identifies causality between CDS premium and geopolitical risk, and establishes periods where the latter influences the former variable both in a positive and negative way. In summary, both the ARDL limit test and the time-varying symmetric and asymmetric test deduce a causal relationship between the studied variables
Stock Market Response to Monetary Policy: Evidence from Iraq
Full text linkThe current study seeks to assess the influence of monetary policy carried out by the Central Bank of Iraq (CBI henceforth) on stock market performance (SMP henceforth) from 2008 to 2021. Three monetary policy variables have been considered: money supply, inflation, and interest rate. Meanwhile, the number of transactions has measured the Iraqi Stock Exchange Market (ISX henceforth) performance. This study has used the Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL henceforth) model by utilising monthly data. The results show that in the long term, the money supply and interest rates both have a negative impact on ISX performance. On the other hand, the findings have reported that inflation significantly and positively affects ISX performance. However, there was no indication of a relationship among the underlying variables in the short term. For investors and the appropriate authorities, these findings may have important implications
The Impact of Green Climate Fund Portfolio Structure on Green Finance: Empirical Evidence from EU Countries:
Full text linkThe financing sector drives the Future of Environmental Funds to achieve climate financing. In this study, we have employed panel regression analysis and the generalized two-step moment method (GMM) for the 25 EU countries from 2000 to 2021 to explore the relationship between green financing and the portfolio structure of green climate funds. According to the findings of this research, green financing significantly impacts quality economic growth. The GCFs enhance the capacity to channel public and private funding while contributing to de-risking more conventional forms of funding, increasing climate financing, and boosting the GCFs. In addition, the study concluded that Global Climate Support might fund nonbankable components of more significant “almost bankable projects” by analyzing the portfolio’s policies and methods
Europe’s Energy Crisis; Winners of the Crisis with Market Data
Full text linkPrices of natural gas, coal, and electricity have risen to the highest level of the last ten years in the last quarter of 2021. It’s possible to express that energy prices in 2021 were much higher, compared to the crisis of 2020’s Covid-19 breakout’s historical descent in the first few months. There are a few factors to this rally. The epidemic caused structural fractions on a global scale. But in general, there is no doubt that crisis factors, which mainly concern Europe, are not limited (with) recovery process in the economy. With this notion, the main structure of this work’s subject aims to analyze the lead-up to the energy crisis that became apparent in 2021. Also, in the work, the energy crisis that’s been occurring will be analyzed thoroughly, with the help of its dynamics and causes. Within the scope of the study, the Hatemi-J (2012) asymmetric causality test was run using the weekly stock closing data of EU natural gas prices (EUGP), Gazprom (XGASPR), and Equinor (XEQUNR) for the period 05.11.2017–28.11.2021. As a result of the analysis, a causal relationship between the variables was determined. However, the work will positively contribute to the literature, being a guide to the current situations and overcoming the similar crisis that might occur in the future
Implementation of Non-state Pension Provision in Ukraine in the System of Strengthening Social Protection
Full text linkThis paper is devoted to identifying the features and finding solutions to the problems of the formation and improvement of the non-state pension provision of Ukraine in the system of strengthening social security and preventing the degradation of the social structure. It presents the results of a study of emergent dynamics of the main performance indicators of non-state pension provision in Ukraine and the behavioural aspects of its beneficiaries when choosing a financial intermediary in the implementation of a new metadata specification based on three areas: banking institutions, non-state pension funds (NPFs) and life insurance companies. These results are the following: identification of key trends in non-state pension provision in Ukraine; disclosure of problems, obstacles, and major shortcomings of an organizational and legal nature; determination of directions for solving problems and the dominant factors in the development of non-state pension provision in Ukraine
Baltic Dry Index Estimation With NARX Neural Network Model
Full text linkBDI is a global trade indicator followed by those interested in maritime trade. But it has volatility, seasonality, and uncertain cyclicality. For this reason, in this study, the BDI has been estimated to provide preliminary information to those interested in maritime trade. NARX Neural Network which performs successfully in complex and nonlinear real-life problems is used. In addition, the NARX neural network model has not been found in a previous study used for BDI estimation. Eleven independent variables are used in this study, what increases the predictive power. Independent variables are Bloomberg Commodities Index (BCOM), Twitter-Based Economic Uncertainty Index (TEU), Twitter-Based Market Uncertainty Index (TMU), S&P 500 Index, MSCI World Index, €/$ Parity, VIX (CBOE), US 10-Year Bond Yield (%), Brent Oil (USD/Barrel), Economic Uncertainty Index and World Trade Volume (USD Billion). The Twitter-Based Economic Uncertainty Index (TEU) and Twitter-Based Market Uncertainty Index (TMU), which were not used before in BDI estimation studies, were included in the analysis and contributed to the literature. The data set contains daily data for the period 9.07.2012–31.08.2020. 11-day estimate values covering 1.09.2020–15.09.2020 are calculated. MAPE, MAE and RMSE performance criteria were calculated for the estimation values. Value of MAPE (2.96%), value of MAE (36.6%) and value of RMSE (46.68) were obtained. As a result, the estimate values were compared with the actual values
Testing Convergence of Fiscal Policies in Regions of Turkiye
Full text linkThe presence of convergence in the fiscal policies implemented at the national level in order to eliminate regional inequalities is an indication that the resources are rationally distributed among the regions and the differences are decreasing. From this point of view, in this study, it is aimed to investigate the convergence of the fiscal policy implemented in the period of 2004:01-2020:12 in Turkey within the scope of the fiscal purpose of taxes. In the study, nonlinear convergence analysis was performed, but linear convergence analysis was used because the linearity hypothesis could not be rejected. According to the findings, there is an absolute convergence between the regions in the fiscal policy implemented in Turkey. However, in terms of regions, the first region is differentiated from other five regions, while the other regions are very close to each other. Regarding this, it may be possible to bring the first region and the other five regions closer to each other by reducing the difference with the arrangements to be made in taxation policies. The obtained findings offer important implications for policy makers
The Estimation of Traditional Phillips Curve
Full text linkThis article presents theoretical foundations for original Phillips curve formulation and an empirical investigation, where the structure of the theoretical model serves as a template for the creation of the empirical model.For a couple of decades the majority of empirical Phillips curve type assessments are performed using the New Keynesian Phillips curve with Calvo pricing as a benchmark for this type of relationship. New Keynesian model has solid microeconomic foundations, has proved itself very well in the analysis of price stickiness; nevertheless, it is not without limitations. The main insufficiency of New Keynesian model is that it has no direct links to the conditions and the changes that occur in the labour market. The need to encompass the conditions in labour market comes from the coincides that occur time to time when the growth rates of aggregate production may diminish or even become negative, but the level of employment may stay the same, what in turn means that the pressure on inflation won’t drop, despite the fact that production level has not increased as expected or even has decreased. This article aims to fill this gap and presents alternative theoretical foundations for Phillips curve, that lead to the model with direct links to the labour market. Theoretical foundations are necessary as they may help to minimize the risks to miss some important details or to omit important factors. Although the empirical analysis in this paper is based on Lithuanian data, it is not country specific