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A New Model with Regime Switching Errors: Forecasting GDP in Times of Great Recession
Get PDFThis paper investigates the possibility to obtain better GDP forecasts in the early stages of Great Recession. Here, predictive performance refers to exclusively out-of-sample forecasts. Based on exploratory data analysis and general-to-specific modelling, this paper proposes a univariate predictive threshold model for the small open economy that outperforms its linear counterparts and correctly determines the course of events. This model does not explain any causal links; however, based on a set of economic arguments, it sets forward an idea regarding how a forecaster can act when principal determinant factors, responsible for a sudden, yet lasting change, are unknown, unmeasurable or cannot be influenced by national policy makers. A major dissimilarity between usual threshold models and the model presented in this paper is that while variables act differently under different conditions in the former, in this model, due to economic reasons, errors act differently. Alternatively, this paper can be viewed as a comparative GDP prediction study
Impact of Corporate Governance Reform on the Management Effectiveness of State Owned Enterprises in Lithuania in 2012–2014
Get PDFFollowing previous research on the management efficiency of the state-owned enterprises (SOEs) in Lithuania, this paper extends the discussion via analysis of the broader period of time not only focusing on 1 year caption (2012), but trying to identify the impacts (if any) of the corporate governance reform of the SOEs in Lithuania looking at the data of 2012–2014.To ensure the consistency and comparability of the results, the theoretical background is sought to be maintained as similar as in the previous papers, following the paradigms of (post) new public management, principle-agent theory, corporate governance guidelines established by such international organisations as the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD), the World Bank, the International Monetary fund and others.In addition to the quantitative part of the analysis (quantitative analysis of the relationship between management of SOEs and results of its operations as measured by Return on Equity (ROE)), case studies representing biggest Lithuanian SOEs and – accordingly – 3 main sectors Lithuanian SOEs are acting in are analysed to understand if and what (i) actual changes of the corporate governance principles are impacting the management effectiveness of SOEs, as well as (ii) what are the limiting factors (if any) reducing the positive effects of the changes being introduced with the new reform.For both parts of the analysis (quantitative and case studies) we focus on (i) the main elements of corporate governance being introduced by the SOE reform and (ii) the relations of the SOEs and the shareholder of theirs (Government and the society). By applying the above described approach, the paper seeks to (i) understand not only the effects of corporate governance on management and performance of SOEs per se, but also include the time dimension with the purpose to understand (confirm) if previous findings (e.g., the fact that board independence and transparency were the key factors influencing SOEs management efficiency in 2012) are sufficiently sustainable outcomes of the reform, which would still be valid in the 3 year period (2012-2014), as well as (ii) explain the most relevant (in terms of impact on management effectiveness) corporate governance principles that should be applied or be promoted stronger in Lithuanian SOEs. 
Networking Society, Networks Based Economy and the Processes of Global Social, Economic and Technological Changes
Get PDFProcesses and problems of the creation of networking society and network-based economy are described in this theoretical article. Networking processes and the network-based new development tendencies in various sectors of economy and social life in the context of contemporary global changes are defined as an especially important field of the scientific research and studies. The main aspects of the networking and network-based development tendencies are analysed. The complexity and systematics of the networking processes and the networking society creation under conditions of globalisation and contemporary changes in various areas of social and economic life are analysed.The main attention is focused on the idea that networking processes and the creation of networking society and network-based economy could be perceived as one of the most important priorities of the modernisation of contemporary social and economic systems, as well as of social, economic, political development, science, and technological progress in general.The creation of networking society and network-based economy is assessed as the most important assumption and the main way to solve most of the social, economic, technological, even security, defence and ecological problems worldwide, as well as in various countries or regions in general and in various countries or regions in the space of the European Union.The processes of the creation of networking society and network-based economy express the essential qualitative changes in all areas of social, economic, political life, science, and technological progress, and interaction with nature. The processes of the creation of networking society and network-based economy deeply influence the content of globalisation and internationalisation processes and the effect on a situation in the modern world.The processes of the creation of networking society and network-based economy must be analysed in complexity. This analysis should be orientated towards the systematically examined and assessed changes and development processes.It is particularly important that the processes of the creation of networking society and network-based economy are taking place on a global scale and could be defined as the processes belonging to the category of global processes and changes: it also means that the complex interaction between the processes of global changes and the processes of the creation of networking society and network-based economy is a very important factor of the positive development in the societal life in the general context of globalisation.Problem is that the networking society and the network-based economy creation processes and other processes of global changes are usually analysed separately: the factor of the complex interaction between different global processes and the processes of the creation of networking society and network-based economy is often ignored. It means, that a complex analysis of the processes of various types, as well as an evaluation of the factors of interaction between different processes could be defined as a perspective way to solve some actual theoretical and practical problems of the development of contemporary economy and of the creation of networking society and network-based economy in general, especially in the context of globalisation.The complex analysis and the multidimensional evaluation of the general processes of global changes and of the specific processes of networking society and the network-based economy creation as a perspective theoretical approach in research on societal changes in the context of globalisation is defined and described in this theoretical article.The variety and the main phenomena and regularities of the global changes are identified, their impact on real processes of networking society and network-based economy creation is characterised. The main principles of the networking society and the network-based economy creation in the context of global changes are formulated.The main idea of the complex analysis and of the evaluation of the factors of interaction between different processes of global changes and the processes of networking society and network-based economy creation could be briefly described as follows: the complex analysis and evaluation of these factors includes two aspects – first, all these processes should be defined and analysed as the global changes in general, secondly, the processes of the creation of networking society and networks based economy should be identified as an specific and especially important priority of contemporary social, economic, organizational and technological changes in the global space. This idea is described in details in the article
Lithuanian Exporters in the Financial Crisis
Get PDFUsing Enterprise Survey data covering the period 2001–2011, the paper investigates the export behavior of Lithuanian firms and changes herein before, during and after the financial crisis. The primary objective is to investigate if there are changes in export behavior such as frequency, intensity, value and structure, hence focus lies on the results obtained with the standard enterprise survey data that is annual and collected before and after the crisis. The findings show that in a quantitative perspective the financial crisis has only a marginal impact on the long run exporting behavior of Lithuanian firms. There are no significant changes in number of exporters and exported percentage and only a small but negative effect on exported value when using simple ANOVA (F-test) analysis or more advanced regression analysis for repeated cross sections and panel data. The impact of the crisis falls more on the qualitative aspects of exporters from Lithuania. Generally do exporters, though affected by the crisis, outperform local market oriented firms in and over the crisis on factors such as productivity, sales growth and quality.Complementary evidence from the more ad-hoc and short-term focused financial crisis surveys corroborates the findings from the standard enterprise surveys. In every aspect investigated did exporters perform at least as well and often much better than firms catering solely to the local market. The financial crisis survey data reveals that exporters had higher capacity utilization, lower levels of indebtedness and recovered generally faster than other firms from the crisis.For the methodology, we conclude with this paper that the usage of repeated cross sections from the Standard enterprise surveys is the best way to investigate our research questions. This owes to the large drop in number of observations in the panel dataset published by the World Bank, making those results overtly vulnerable to outliers in the sample and unobservable attrition factors. The financial crisis survey data is mainuly useful towards understanding short run adjustments and financial aspects of the crisis, while structural aspects and exporting behavior is better covered with the standard surveys. The main methodology problem of using less than population data (making it sensitive to survey sampling routines) to investigate exporting behavior in general concerns the enormous skewedness that exists within the population of exporting firms. This owes to the phenomena that in most countries a handful of (multinational and locally owned) firms account for more than 50% of total exports. This is also increasingly true for a country such as Lithuania as the transition towards a market and open economy has progressed
Undeclared Work in Poland: Characteristics and Prevalence
Get PDFThis article aims to present the significance and prevalence of the phenomenon of undeclared work. First, we discuss the definitional issues of this phenomenon. Then, we present previous estimates on shadow economy and undeclared work in Poland, based on statistics provided by Central Statistical Office and other research entities. Our analysis covers the years 2000–2014. In the last part of the article, we use data from the Labour Force Survey in Poland to measure the number of unemployed who work informally. We show a decrease in number of this specific type of informal workers. In the next step, we compare our estimates with the total number of informal employees, provided by the Central Statistical Office. On the basis of our comparisons, we argue that the growing prevalence of undeclared work has not resulted from unregistered activities of the unemployed. Therefore, we show that a significant part of informal activity occurs within registered entitles, what may provide an important lead in further studies on undeclared work in Poland
Analysis of Inflation Management Model Factors as Regards Supply and Demand
Get PDFThis article analyses the demand and supply aspects of the determinants of CPI inflation in Lithuania in 1998–2008. Content analysis was used to identify and group significant demand and supply inflation factors and using RGT, objectively assess and generalize the results. Pair linear correlation analysis confirmed the significance for CPI inflation of the factors identified through content analysis, and both research methods reliably and effectively helped to identify factors for regression models of inflation. Content analysis revealed that the causes of inflation most often mentioned and traditionally regarded as significant in the economic literature are factors such as money and wages, capital, competition and monopolies, and so on. Pair correlation research showed the significance for inflation of supply and demand factors such as income distribution, income levels, taxes, saving, human capital and labour productivity as well as exports and imports – things which content analysis gave only average or little mention. Regression models confirmed and helped to concretize the significance for inflation of the identified demand and supply factors. The results of the research show that inconsistent monetary and general government expenditure policies reinforce private consumption and capital shocks. Note that human capital and employment, which changed little during the analysed period, did not show the large significance for inflation that they are commonly thought to have
Ukrainian E-commerce Attractiveness: Challenges and Perspectives
Get PDFE-commerce is now more than just a trend or innovation. Eastern Europe is one of the most attractive e-commerce destinations. In this article we will talk about peculiarities, principles, main trends and attractiveness of e-commerce market in Ukraine. E-commerce is a relatively new business activity in Ukraine, which is experiencing rapid growth. E-commerce has reached virtually all business spheres today, with all possible types of goods and services being sold through the Internet, from cars and computers to consulting and legal services. Investment attractiveness of e-commerce should be particularly emphasized; considering the fact that in other European countries e-commerce accounts for 15-30% of all retail transactions, the Ukrainian e-commerce market has inexhaustible growth potential
Economic Crises and Emission of Pollutants: a Historical Review of Select Economies amid Two Economic Recessions
Get PDFThis paper investigates the historical trends in economic development through the impact of economic depressions and emissions of greenhouse gasses, namely carbon dioxide (CO2). The analysis includes four countries: the United States, the United Kingdom, Germany and Japan. The focus, therefore, will be on the impact of two economic crises and their effect on global warming. Temperature changes in the longer period are very often regarded as a result of human activity, which can be measured by the increase of GDP (per capita). The findings indicate that GDP (per capita) parameters cannot be considered as correct measures of human pollution activity. The results show that the long-run temperature can be evaluated with the help of annual average temperatures of the previous four years. The proposed model does not only provide quite satisfactory forecasts, but is very stable with coefficients variables that can make a model more reliable for practice
Modelling the Impact of External Shocks on the Economy of Ukraine: DSGE Approach
Get PDFThe paper explores the dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model to study the impact of external shocks on the economy of Ukraine. The dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model is constructed for a small open economy that includes households, firms (domestic manufacturers and importers), government, the National Bank and external sector. The model assumes the new-Keynesian approach that includes the so-called “rigidities” of prices and wages, the existence of the households’ consumption habits and investments with adjustment costs. Also, it takes into account the country’s significant dependence on mineral products imports. All goods in the economy are divided into the domestic ones (that are exported and consumed in the country), imports and mineral products. So the purpose of the model is to study the impact of external shocks on the economy of Ukraine, such as a positive shock in world output, a positive shock in the world aggregate demand, a positive shock in the world interest rate, and a positive shock in world prices
Culture and Economic Development: Emigration as Evaluation of Lithuanian Cultural Environment
Get PDFThis article discusses the influence of culture on economic development and its historical significance. It includes the brief historical analysis of this influence, discussion of problems of its scientific evaluation and presentation of relevant theories and hypotheses. Several practical examples are given that indicate the influence of culture on economy and suggest possible solutions to countries seeking to attain economic welfare. The main issues addressed are: the scope of influence of cultural environment on economic development, the extent of its historical determination and the possibilities to modify it by innovative and consistent actions of the state. The Lithuanian cultural environment is evaluated from an emigration perspective following its comparison with several European countries and the presentation of two qualitative researches carried out by Lithuanian scientists aimed at geographical study preferences of young people