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Evaluation of Stackelberg Leader-Follower Interaction Between Policymakers in Small Open Economies
No full textThe problem of coordination between policymakers seems to have created fundamental problems related to economic and social costs, targeted inflation, potential growth, and a high budget deficit. To resolve these problems in this framework, it is important to see the results of the interaction between policymakers and to propose an optimal policy strategy. In this study, the interactions between monetary and fiscal policymakers are examined game theoretically within the framework of the New Keynesian model. The strategic interaction between these policymakers is assessed using the DSGE (Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium) model for a small open economy. From this point of view, the interaction between policymakers is assessed within the framework of hypothetical scenarios. The optimal monetary and fiscal policies for a small open economy are derived from the leader-follower mechanism solution known as the Stackelberg solution. Optimal Stackelberg policy rules derived for a small open economy contribute to the literature of economics. The performance of the game theoretically derived optimal policy rules is evaluated through dynamic simulation within the framework of counterfactual experiments. The parameters developed for the model are calibrated for the Turkish economy. Dynamic simulation of the models, the impulse response functions, and the social loss analysis shows that the optimal policy mix for the Turkish economy is when the monetary policymaker is the leader, and the fiscal policymaker is the follower
The Symmetric and Asymmetric Time-Varying Causality Relationships Between the COVID-19 Outbreak and the Stock Exchange: The Case of Selected Countries
Full text linkIn this study, the effects of COVID-19 (mortality rate, case rate, and bed capacity) on the stock market was examined within the framework of the efficient market hypothesis. Unlike other studies in the literature, we used the variable of bed capacity besides the mortality rate and case rate variables. The relationship between the mentioned variables, using daily data between December 31 of 2019 and November 10 of 2020, has been analyzed with time-varying symmetric and asymmetric causality tests for China, Germany, the USA, and India. Considering that the responses to positive and negative shocks during the pandemic process may be different and that the results may change depending on time, time-varying symmetric and asymmetric causality tests were used. According to the time-varying symmetric causality test, stock markets in all countries were affected in the period when the cases first appeared. A causal relationship between COVID-19 and country stock markets was found. The results showed that the effects of the case rate and bed capacity on the stock market occurred around the same time in Germany and the United States; however, these dates differed in China and India. According to time-varying asymmetric causality test findings, the asymmetric effect of the pandemic on the stock market in countries emerged during the second wave. The findings showed that the period during which positive and negative information about the pandemic intensified coincided with the period during which the second wave occurred; besides, the results show the effect of this information on the stock market differed as positive and negative shocks
A First Glance at the Minimum Wage Incidence in Lithuania Using Social Security Data*
Full text linkThis document explores the incidence of the minimum wage in Lithuania. The descriptive analysis exploits high-frequency data on monthly labor income coming from Social Security records between July 2013 and July 2020 to characterize (i) the evolution of the monthly minimum wage, (ii) the percentage of workers who earn the minimum wage, (iii) the bite of the minimum wage in the wage distribution, and (iv) the heterogeneity of the findings with respect to gender and age. The evidence shows that the minimum wage was raised 7 times with an average (real) increase of 7.3% and, on average, less than 10% of the workers earn at most the minimum wage but low-pay incidence is around 20%. In terms of the impact of the wage distribution, the minimum wage relative to the average wage in the economy fluctuates between 45 and 50 percent. Females and young workers exhibit a larger low-pay incidence and minimum wage bite
Conditions for Successful Active Investment in Terms of the State and the Far-sighted Interests of the Business
Full text linkFor the macro characteristic of active investment, we introduced the concept of the technical productivity of investment. It characterizes an investment’s capacity to reduce the norm of material or labor costs.Based on the technical productivity of investment, we derived the equation (not identity) of economic dynamics.We have proposed measuring the efficiency of investments by added-value to reflect their effectiveness for the business owner’s far-sighted interests in minimizing the turnover of skilled workers. We have proposed to use the criteria in terms of the state – the maximum of the real GDP growth and the maximum of the sum of real GDP for the country as a whole.We defined the limits of an investment’s technical productivity, for which the investor receives the desired payback or effectiveness, and an economy in maximal development.For this, we used our causal simulation model of Ukraine’s economy dynamics, which, in contrast to the known models, reflects the main types of legal and shadow economic activities in their relationships
Word Portfolio Optimization in the Environment of Zero Interest Rate
Full text linkThis paper provides a deep analysis of ten globally diversified portfolios, composed of different financial instruments: bonds, shares, ETF’s, commodities, indexes, currencies, constructed applying various optimization techniques. Statistical moments, such as mean, standard deviation, kurtosis and skewness of portfolios are compared and discussed. Moreover, performance of the portfolios within the time horizon of one year estimating Sharpe ratio, Treynor ratio, Sortino ratio is presented. Furthermore, a risk analysis of created portfolios is evaluated in terms of historical VaR and CVaR applying confidence interval 95%. The main results of this paper reveal that the portfolio, which is optimized to minimize VaR produces high expected shortfall. Secondly, the Risk Parity portfolio, despite reducing volatility, has delivered the highest kurtosis of the return, which may indicate the possible tail loss. Furthermore, the maximum Sharpe ratio portfolio has delivered extremely high kurtosis in comparison with the kurtosis of the other portfolios. Finally, it is observed that for the Naïve diversification portfolio it has been typical to have the highest downside deviation.
 
Estimates Of Russia’s Potential Output
Full text linkTaking into consideration the specifics of the Russian economy such as dependency on oil and gas drilling & production, and including the current context of the Western sanctions, COVID-19 pandemic, as well as somewhat idiosyncratic potential output development, the main aim of this paper is to quantify recent output gap for Russia. We use three mainstream methodologies: the Hodrick-Prescott filter as a benchmark, the Kalman filter to follow, and the Cobb-Douglas production function. The sample time span ranges from 1995Q1 until 2020Q3, while all calculations are performed on quarterly frequencies. The analysis suggests that given low fixed investment ratios, limited R&D spending in non-military sectors, and adverse demographic development, under a “no policy change” scenario there might soon be even more downward pressures on the country’s potential output growth, and the economy may continue increasing only at a snail’s pace even after a possible withdrawal of the Western sanctions and the end of the COVID-19 pandemic
The Impact of Globalization on European Airline Market
Full text linkAirline industry is very important for modern society as the biggest player in the globalization process by connecting regions, promoting global trade and tourism, facilitating economic and social development. However, here is a lack of research on relationship between globalization and airline industry in Europe. It remains unclear how to measure the impact of globalization on performance of airline companies and industry. The article aims at investigation of the impact of globalization on operational and financial performance of European airlines before pandemics.The authors applied a nonexperimental quantitative research design to analyze the relationship between independent globalization variables (level of globalization in Europe, globalization opportunity, globalization threat) and dependent airlines’ operational and financial performance indicators. Research is done using secondary data from annual reports of 19 European airlines members of European Common Aviation Area (ECAA). The panel data analysis was applied for 2007–2017 with multiple regression analysis using STATA. The results show that globalization exerts a significant positive effect on operational performance. On financial performance only revenue per passenger kilometers is positively influenced by globalization. Globalization affects low-cost airlines and full-service airlines performance differently
Poverty Dynamics in Turkey: A Multinomial Logit Model
Full text linkThe availability of longitudinal data allows researchers to analyse the dynamics of poverty. By using the Turkish Statistical Institute’s (TurkStat) Income and Living Conditions Survey micro dataset, we analyse the households’ long-term monetary poverty conditions. We categorise poverty as transitory and chronic and employ the multinomial logit method to analyse determinants of each types of poverty. Results indicate that education and household size are the most effective factors for reducing transitory poverty, and for chronic poverty, the most effective factors are having a regular job and having a skilled occupation; insurance, home ownership, and number of children are important determinants for both types of poverty
Negative Real Balance Effects in the Presence of Involuntary Unemployment
Full text linkWe examine positive or negative real balance effect (or so-called Pigou effect) by falls in the nominal wage rate and the prices of the goods in situations where there is involuntary unemployment using a three-generations overlapping generations model with childhood period and pay-as-you go pension system for the older generation consumers. We will show that if the net savings of the younger generation consumers are larger than their debts due to consumption in their childhood period, there exists positive real balance effect and the employment increases by a fall in the nominal wage rate; on the other hand, if the net savings of the younger generation consumers are smaller than their debts, there exists negative real balance effect and the employment decreases by a fall in the nominal wage rate