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A Bayesian Inference Approach to Extract Circuit Model Parameters and Analyze Photovoltaic Degradation from Power Production Data
No full textInternational audienc
Do the Numbers Matter? An Experiment on Policy Preferences
No full textIn theory, voter attitudes towards policy changes (e.g., whether to increase the minimum wage) ought to depend on their beliefs about the current level of the relevant policy variable. In this paper, I test this hypothesis using a large-scale (n = 5, 000) and pre-registered survey experiment that spans four different policy areas. The experiment yields four main results. First, voters have both inaccurate and biased beliefs about the levels of the policy variables. Second, voters’ attitudes are remarkably unresponsive to changes in their beliefs about levels: for example, exogenously increasing average beliefs about the top tax rate by ∼8.5 percentage points does not increase the share who want to cut the top tax rate. Third, the observed unresponsiveness cannot be rationalised by a model in which voters form attitudes towards policy changes by comparing actual and preferred policy levels. Fourth, although attitudes are unresponsive to the quantitative information presented, they can be swayed by qualitative arguments
Penser la transition dans un monde fait de circulations. Le paquebot automobile européen à la dérive ?
No full textInternational audienceTirée par la démographie, la hausse du pouvoir d'achat et l'éclatement spatial des modes de vie et de production, la dynamique de croissance des transports à l'échelle mondiale est hors de contrôle. Les flottes augmentent, les distances s'allongent, la dépendance aux carburants fossiles se maintient. En 2022, les transports dépendaient des produits pétroliers pour 91 % de leur énergie finale, soit seulement 3,5 points de moins qu'au début des années 1970 (IEA, 2023). En bout de chaîne, immanquablement, le bilan des émissions s'alourdit. L'électrification des véhicules est le navire amiral des stratégies de décarbonation des transports de l'Union européenne, de plusieurs de ses pays membres et de quelques autres grandes économies dans le monde. Il s'agirait de vérifier que le navire ne prend pas l'eau
Fare-free public transport in France: unveiling urban policy challenges
No full textInternational audienceFrance is one of the countries where the phenomenon of fare-free public transport is most active, particularly in Europe. This public policy has given rise to controversy over its environmental, social and urban effects. This article offers a different way of discussing the phenomenon. It paints a picture of the phenomenon and then traces its origins back to the emergence of urban crises that began in the 1970s. Finally, it looks back at the major issues associated with this policy, showing that they reflect questions facing cities more widely today
Creative cognition as a bandit problem
No full textInternational audienceThis paper draws a parallel between creative cognition and a multi-armed bandit problem involving learning from experience in an uncertain environment. Special emphasis is put on the optimal sequencing of divergent and convergent behavior by showing that divergence must be inhibited at one point to converge toward creative behavior so that excessive divergence is counterproductive. We test this hypothesis with a behavioral experiment, using measures of individual divergence and convergence components of creative potential in high school students. Results confirmed that a mix of divergence and convergence predicted high performance in a bandit task but not in a purely random task or in a simple repetitive task. These predictions are maintained after controlling for sex, personality, incentives, and other factors. As hypothesized, creative cognition was necessary for high performance under the appropriate conditions. However, it was not necessary to get high grades in a traditional school system
Trading off performance and human oversight in algorithmic policy: evidence from Danish college admissions
No full textStudent dropout is a significant concern for educational institutions due to its social and economic impact, driving the need for risk prediction systems to identify at-risk students before enrollment. We explore the accuracy of such systems in the context of higher education by predicting degree completion before admission, with potential applications for prioritizing admissions decisions. Using a large-scale dataset from Danish higher education admissions, we demonstrate that advanced sequential AI models offer more precise and fair predictions compared to current practices that rely on either high school grade point averages or human judgment. These models not only improve accuracy but also outperform simpler models, even when the simpler models use protected sociodemographic attributes. Importantly, our predictions reveal how certain student profiles are better matched with specific programs and fields, suggesting potential efficiency and welfare gains in public policy. We estimate that even the use of simple AI models to guide admissions decisions, particularly in response to a newly implemented nationwide policy reducing admissions by 10 percent, could yield significant economic benefits. However, this improvement would come at the cost of reduced human oversight and lower transparency. Our findings underscore both the potential and challenges of incorporating advanced AI into educational policymaking
Organisation du travail : le retour. Quelles interprétations?: Introduction
No full textInternational audienceLa sociologie du travail a connu dans les années 1970 et 1980 d’intenses débats à propos de l’organisation du travail et des modèles alternatifs qu’elle était susceptible de porter. L’intérêt pour ce thème de réflexion était partagé avec les acteurs d’entreprises. Il s’agissait de s’interroger sur la portée, les limites et les possibilités de dépassement du taylorisme. Dans les années 2010, autour d’une curiosité pour l’entreprise libérée, le mode agile, le design thinking ou les new ways of working, les entreprises ont été le lieu d’un retour en force de la réflexion sur les modèles à suivre en matière d’organisation du travail. Elles ont cultivé le débat sur les modes de fonctionnement et les modèles managériaux. La sociologie s’est cependant tenue à distance de cette réflexion et de ces débats. Ce dossier thématique, qui réunit quatre articles, permet de donner un aperçu des contributions possibles à un éclairage sociologique du regain d’intérêt des entreprises pour la question de l’organisation du travail et de ses modèles. L’introduction qui les précède retrace les grandes phases, des années 1970 à la période actuelle, de l’intérêt que la discipline porte aux modèles organisationnels, expose les orientations des réflexions qui ont surgi en entreprise durant la décennie 2010 et présente les articles et leur apport au dossier
Axelle Ferrière Discussion of: Sanctions and the Exchange Rate
No full textInternational audienceThe invasion of Ukraine by Russia in February 2022 prompted numerous countries to impose economic sanctions against Russia. In the months following the onset of the conflict, coalitions of nations collaboratively devised a set of measures aimed at restricting trade with Russia. Additionally, assets belonging to Russian individuals or companies were frozen. The scale of these sanctions has been unparalleled, marking a historic moment not witnessed for decades. This pertains not only to the extent and variety of economic actions taken against Russia but also to the aspect of implementing such actions against a nation of Russia's size and geopolitical importance.To evaluate the impact of sanctions on the Russian economy, analysts examined the exchange rate, which has the advantage of being available in real time. Initially, after the sanctions were imposed, the Ruble experienced depreciation, prompting several analysts to assert the effectiveness of the sanctions. However, a few months later, the Ruble began to appreciate, eventually surpassing its pre-war level in late spring 2022 and maintaining this elevated position for several months. This rebound in the Russian currency raised inquiries about the correlation between sanctions and exchange rates: is it inevitable for the currency to depreciate after sanctions, and if so, why
La neutralité carbone, du slogan à la mise en œuvre : quels enjeux ?
No full textInternational audienc