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Modeling Uncertainty in Large Natural Resource Allocation Problems
Get PDFThe productivity of the world's natural resources is critically dependent on a variety of highly uncertain factors, which obscure individual investors and governments that seek to make long-term, sometimes irreversible investments in their exploration and utilization. These dynamic considerations are poorly represented in disaggregated resource models, as incorporating uncertainty into large-dimensional problems presents a challenging computational task. This study introduces a novel numerical method to solve large-scale dynamic stochastic natural resource allocation problems that cannot be addressed by conventional methods. The method is illustrated with an application focusing on the allocation of global land resource use under stochastic crop yields due to adverse climate impacts and limits on further technological progress. For the same model parameters, the range of land conversion is considerably smaller for the dynamic stochastic model as compared to deterministic scenario analysis. The scenario analysis can thus significantly overstate the magnitude of expected land conversion under uncertain crop yields
Observational Constraints on the Effective Climate Sensitivity from the Historical Period
Get PDFThe observed warming in the atmosphere and ocean can be used to estimate the climate sensitivity linked to present-day feedbacks, which is referred to as the effective climate sensitivity (Shist). However, such an estimate is affected by uncertainty in the radiative forcing, particularly aerosols, over the historical period. Here, we make use of detection and attribution techniques to derive the surface air temperature and ocean warming that can be attributed directly to greenhouse gas increases. These serve as inputs to a simple energy budget to infer the likelihood of Shist in response to observed greenhouse gases increases over two time periods (18622012 and 19552012). The benefit of using greenhouse gas attributable quantities is that they are not subject to uncertainties in the aerosol forcing (other than uncertainty in the attribution to greenhouse gas versus aerosol forcing not captured by the multi-model aerosol response pattern). The resulting effective climate sensitivity estimate, Shist, ranges from 1.3 Cto 3.1 C(5%95% range) over the full instrumental period (18622012) for our best estimate, and gets slightly wider when considering further uncertainties. This estimate increases to 1.7 C4.6 C if using the shorter period (19552012).We also evaluate the climate model simulated surface air temperature and ocean heat content increase in response to greenhouse gas forcing over the same periods, and compare them with the observationally-constrained values.We find that that the ocean warming simulated in greenhouse gas only simulations in models considered here is consistent with that attributed to greenhouse gas increases from observations, while one model simulates more greenhouse gas-induced surface air warming than observed. However, other models with sensitivity outside our range show greenhouse gas warming that is consistent with that attributed in observations, emphasising that feedbacks during the historical period may differ from the feedbacks at CO2 doubling and from those at true equilibrium
Data Assimilation Enhancements to Air Force Weathers Land Information System
Get PDFThe United States Air Force (USAF) has a proud and storied tradition of enabling significant advancements in the area of characterizing and modeling land state information. 557th Weather Wing (557 WW; DoDs Executive Agent for Land Information) provides routine geospatial intelligence information to warfighters, planners, and decision makers at all echelons and services of the U.S. military, government and intelligence community. 557 WW and its predecessors have been home to the DoDs only operational regional and global land data analysis systems since January 1958. As a trusted partner since 2005, Air Force Weather (AFW) has relied on the Hydrological Sciences Laboratory at NASA/GSFC to lead the interagency scientific collaboration known as the Land Information System (LIS). LIS is an advanced software framework for high performance land surface modeling and data assimilation of geospatial intelligence (GEOINT) information
Effects of Hydrogen Bonding and Molecular Chain Flexibility of Substituted n-Alkyldimethylsilanes On Impact Ice Adhesion Shear Strength
Get PDFThe effects of hydrogen bonding and molecular flexibility upon ice adhesion shear strength were investigated using aluminum substrates coated with substituted n-alkyldimethylalkoxysilanes. The location of the chemical group substitution was on the opposing end of the linear n-alkyl chain with respect to silicon. Three hydrogen-bonding characteristics were evaluated: 1) non-hydrogen bonding, 2) donor/acceptor, and 3) acceptor. Varying the length of the n-alkyl chain provided an assessment of molecular chain flexibility. Coated and uncoated aluminum surfaces were characterized by receding water contact angle and surface roughness. Ice adhesion shear strength was determined in the Adverse Environment Rotor Test Stand facility from -16 to -8C that simulated aircraft in-flight icing conditions within the FAR Part 25/29 Appendix C icing envelope. Surface roughness of the coatings was similar allowing for comparison of the test results. An adhesion reduction factor, based on the ice adhesion shear strength data with respect to uncoated aluminum obtained at the same temperature, was calculated to compare the data. The results revealed complex interactions with impacting supercooled water droplets that were interdependent upon ice accretion temperature, surface energy characteristics of water and ice, hydrogen bonding characteristic of the substituent, and length of the n-alkyl chain. To aid in explaining the results, 1) changes in the surface energy component (i.e., non-polar and polar) values that water undergoes during its phase change from liquid to solid that arise from the freezing of impacting supercooled water droplets on the surface depended upon the temperature during accretion were taken into account and 2) the physical properties (i.e., water solubility and melting point) of small compounds analogous to the substituted n-alkyldimethylalkoxysilanes used in this study were compared
Formal Requirements Elicitation with FRET
Get PDFFRET is a tool for writing, understanding, formalizing and analyzing requirements. Users write requirements in an intuitive, restricted natural language, called FRETISH, with precise, unambiguous meaning. For a FRETISH requirement, FRET: 1) produces natural language and diagrammatic explanations of its exact meaning, 2) formalizes the requirement in logics, and 3) supports interactive simulation of produced logic formulas to ensure that they capture user intentions. FRET connects to analysis tools by facilitating the mapping between requirements and models/code, and by generating verification code. FRET is available open source at https://github.com/NASA-SW-VnV/fret; a video can be accessed at : https://tinyurl.com/fretForREFSQ
Contribution of Land Surface States to Sub-Season Predictability
Get PDFThis is an overview of forecast skill related to land surface initialization in prediction systems. It is provided as "general interest" to the USCLIVAR PPAI (Predictability, Predictions, and Applications Interface) community
Using X-Ray Computed Tomography to Image Apollo Drive Tube 73002
Get PDFThe Apollo missions collected 382 kg of rock, regolith, and core samples from six locations on the nearside of the Moon. Today, just over 84% by mass of the Apollo collection remains in pristine condition within the curation facility at Johnson Space Center. Most Apollo samples have been well characterized, however there are several types of samples that have remained wholly or largely unstudied since their return, and/or that have been curated under special conditions. These sample types are: (1) unopened samples sealed under vacuum on the Moon; (2) unopened (but unsealed) drive tubes; (3) Apollo 17 samples frozen shortly after their return; and (4) Apollo 15 samples opened and stored in a helium atmosphere since their return. Last summer, NASA solicited proposals for the Apollo Next Generation Sample Analysis Program (ANGSA), and 9 teams were selected to study: (1) unsealed, unopened drive tube 73002; (2) sealed, unopened drive tube 73001 (paired with 73002); and (3) a subset of the frozen and He-purged samples [1]. The first sample opened as part of the ANGSA program was drive tube 73002. This is a 30 cm long, 4 cm diameter drive tube collected on a landslide deposit near Lara Crater at the Apollo 17 landing site. It was part of a 60 cm long double drive tube collected, and the bottom half of the tube (73001) was sealed under vacuum on the Moon [2]. Prior to opening sample 73002, the sample was imaged with a high resolution Xray Computed Tomography (XCT) scan of the entire tube. Additional XCT scans have been made of large clasts removed from the core as part of the dissection process [3]. Here we present a first look at the XCT data from 73002, and talk about the utility of the scans as part of the curation process, including the potential for future science returns from the high resolutions scans
Meteoritic Material Recovered from the 07 March 2018 Meteorite Fall into the Olympic Coast National Marine Sanctuary
Get PDFOn 07 March 2018 at 20:05 local time (08 March 03:05 UTC), a dramatic meteor occurred over Olympic Coast National Marine Sanctuary (OCNMS) off of the Washington state coast (OCNMS fall, henceforth). Data to include seismometry (from both on-shore and submarine seismometers), weather radar imagery (Figure 1), and a moored weather buoy, were used to accurately identify the fall site. The site was visited by the exploration vessel E/V Nautilus (Ocean Exploration Trust) on 01 July 2018 [1] and by the research vessel R/V Falkor (Schmidt Ocean Institute) from 03-06 June 2019. Remotely operated vehicles (ROVs) from both vessels were used to search for meteorites and sample seafloor sediments. These expeditions performed the first attempts to recover meteorites from a specific observed fall in the open ocean. Analysis of weather radar data indicates that this fall was unusually massive and featured meteorites of unusually high mechanical toughness, such that large meteorites were disproportionately produced compared to other meteorite falls (Figure 2)[2-4]. We report the recovery of many (>100) micrometeorite-sized melt spherules and other fragments, and one small (~1mm3 ) unmelted meteorite fragment identified to date. Approximately 80% of the fragments were recovered from a single sample, collected from a round pit in the seafloor sediment. Melt spherules are almost exclusively type I iron-rich spherules with little discernible oxidation. Analyses are currently underway to attempt to answer the primary science question by identifying the parent meteorite type. Also, differences in the number and nature of samples collected by Nautilus and Falkor reveal a distinct loss rate to oxidation over the 15 months following the fall that is useful to inform future recovery efforts
Application of Extended Messinger Models to Complex Geometries
Get PDFSince, ice accretion can significantly degrade the performance and the stability of an airborne vehicle, it is imperative to be able to model it accurately. While ice accretion studies have been performed on airplane wings and helicopter blades in abundance, there are few that attempt to model the process on more complex geometries such as fuselages. This paper proposes a methodology that extends an existing in-house Extended Messinger solver to complex geometries by introducing the capability to work with unstructured grids and carry out spatial surface streamwise marching. For the work presented here commercial solvers such as STAR-CCM+ and ANSYS Fluent are used for the flow field and droplet dispersed phase computations. The ice accretion is carried out using an in-house icing solver called GT-ICE. The predictions by GT-ICE are compared to available experimental data, or to predictions by other solvers such as LEWICE and STAR-CCM+. Three different cases with varying levels of complexity are presented. The first case considered is a commercial transport airfoil, followed by a three-dimensional MS(1)-317 swept wing. Finally, ice accretion calculations performed on a Robin fuselage have been discussed. Good agreement with experimental data, where applicable, is observed. Differences between the ice accretion predictions by different solvers have been discussed
Trajectory Generation for Noise-Constrained Autonomous Flight Operations
Get PDFOne of the major factors in acceptance of aircraft operating in urban areas is noise. In this work, we build on a framework for trajectory generation in order to account for limits on acousticmetrics at one ormore observer locations. The spatial trajectories are generated using Bzier polynomials and satisfy dynamic, acoustic, and mission constraints. The trajectories also guarantee spatial or temporal separation between vehicles for multi-vehicle operations. A simulation example is provided that demonstrates the reduction in noise levels at a set of measurement locations