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Cohort mortality forecasts indicate signs of deceleration in life expectancy gains
No full textThe fast-paced improvements in mortality in high-income countries since the early 1900s have led to a sustained increase in life expectancy. However, whether this linear trend will continue or life expectancy gains will decelerate in the near future remains unclear. To answer this question, we apply multiple established and recently developed mortality forecasting methods to estimate cohort life expectancy for individuals born between 1939 and 2000 in 23 high-income countries. Across all forecasting methods, our results robustly and consistently indicate a deceleration in cohort life expectancy. The previously observed pace of improvement, 0.46 y per cohort, declines by 37% to 52%, depending on the method used. Robustness checks suggest that these findings are unlikely to be solely due to downward bias in cohort life expectancy forecasts. Furthermore, an age-decomposition analysis indicates that this deceleration is primarily driven by a slower pace of mortality improvement at very young ages. Over half of the total deceleration is attributable to mortality trends under age 5, while more than two-thirds is explained by mortality trends under age 20. This pattern had already emerged in the observed data for the cohorts included in our analysis. Thus, even if these estimates turned out to be overly pessimistic, it is unlikely that the deceleration will reverse in the near future
POPP. An OCR-Generated Database of the Population Censuses of Paris (1926-36)
No full textEmpirical research in historical demography is typically time-consuming and labor-intensive. Recent advances in machine learning open new opportunities for constructing large-scale databases much faster and at lower cost, but they also raise methodological challenges. This article presents the construction process of the POPP database, a data collection project based on the nominative lists of the 1926, 1931, and 1936 Paris population censuses. The POPP database contains records on nearly nine~million individuals, including their names, year and place of birth, nationality, relationship to the household head, and occupation. These data provide unprecedented opportunities to study the composition of the Parisian population during the interwar period and, more broadly, the structure of urban populations. Beyond its substantive contribution, this article demonstrates both the potential and the limitations of applying artificial intelligence to the construction of large historical demographic databases
Entre-soi ethnique, intégration et émancipation des normes : le cas des immigrés chinois en Île-de-France
No full textÀ partir d’une enquête intitulée « Immigrés chinois à Paris et en région parisienne » menée en 2020-2021, cet article s’intéresse aux liens sociaux en tant que ressource au fil du parcours migratoire. Il s’appuie sur le volet qualitatif de l’enquête qui repose sur la réalisation d’entretiens semi-directifs. L’article apporte un éclairage sur la relation entre la composition des liens tissés par les enquêtés et leurs objectifs en matière d’intégration, qui peuvent se limiter à la dimension économique ou s’étendre à la sphère sociale, par une recherche de mixité de leur entourage. Les résultats montrent également que les ressources potentiellement procurées par l’entre-soi ethnique ne sont pas forcément un atout, notamment dans le cadre de relations verticales. Enfin, l’article montre que sortir de l’entre-soi ethnique peut aussi être un moyen de s’émanciper des normes sociales chinoises, susceptibles de se perpétuer en contexte migratoire, en particulier dans le monde du travail
Une sexualité pour soi, mais accessible pour qui ? L’imbrication du genre et de la classe dans la formation du style de sexualité des étudiant·es
No full textLa diffusion de la norme d’égalité entre les sexes, amplifiée par le « moment MeToo », vient remettre en question la division genrée des styles de sexualité, opposant d’un côté un modèle centré sur l’individu et associé aux hommes et, de l’autre, un modèle conjugal associé aux femmes. À partir d’une enquête par questionnaire et par entretiens conduite auprès d’étudiant·es aux origines sociales variées et recruté·es dans quatre formations de l’enseignement supérieur, cet article analyse comment les styles de sexualité des jeunes adultes se reconfigurent par rapport à ceux des précédentes générations. Tout d’abord, l’exploitation du questionnaire permet de montrer que, malgré la symétrisation croissante des répertoires sexuels des femmes et des hommes, les styles de sexualité adoptés par les étudiant·es continuent de se différencier en fonction du genre, mais aussi de la classe. En effet, l’accès des femmes à une sexualité pour soi reste limité et concerne surtout celles qui sont fortement dotées en capitaux culturels. Ensuite, à partir d’entretiens avec des étudiant·es d’un institut d’études politiques, fortement doté·es en capitaux culturels, l’article examine comment leur style de sexualité s’inscrit dans des trajectoires façonnées par le genre et la classe. Plus précisément, il détaille comment l’appropriation d’idées féministes favorise une ouverture des possibles sexuels et comment la revendication d’un style de sexualité « féministe » participe à la production des frontières entre classes sociales
A scoping review of outcome selection and accuracy of conclusions in complex digital health interventions for young people (2017–2023): methodological proposals for population health intervention research
No full textBackground
Determining the success of population health interventions often involves assessing multiple, multidimensional outcomes rather than a single one, which presents significant methodological challenges under the evidence-based medicine paradigm. This scoping review examines outcome selection, analysis, and interpretation, and the accuracy of conclusions in complex digital health interventions promoting health among adolescents and young adults (DHI-AYA).
Methods
A comprehensive search of PubMed, EMBASE, ClinicalTrials.gov, PsycINFO, and CINAHL identified DHI-AYA implemented between 2017 and 2023. Studies were categorised by methodological choice regarding outcome hierarchical position: unique primary, multiple primary, or non-hierarchised outcomes. Outcomes were further classified into effectiveness, process, or economic categories. The authors’ conclusions on intervention success were compared with conclusions drawn by the research team based on the reported outcome analysis strategy. Secondly, four analytical strategies were applied to a subset of selected interventions to illustrate the impact of outcome hierarchical position and number on conclusions about intervention success.
Results
Analysis of 100 studies linked to 26 DHI-AYA identified 251 distinct outcomes: 164 effectiveness, 78 process, and 9 economic outcomes. Seven interventions were evaluated using a unique primary outcome, 10 using multiple primary outcomes, and 9 using multiple non-hierarchised outcomes. Primary and secondary outcomes were predominantly effectiveness endpoints. The research team reclassified nine interventions (35%) deemed successful by authors as non-conclusive due to statistically conflicting results across outcomes. Most interventions deemed non-conclusive by the research team were evaluated using non-hierarchised outcomes (7/10, 70%). The choice of outcome analysis strategy substantially affected conclusions on intervention success.
Conclusions
Discrepancies in intervention success assessments highlight the need for enhanced transparency, robustness, and trustworthiness in conclusion-drawing processes. In response, five methodological proposals are formulated: (1) developing core outcome sets specific to population health intervention research (PHIR), (2) collaboratively selecting multidimensional outcomes through a steering committee that accounts for stakeholder preferences and existing theoretical models, (3) exploring multi-criteria decision analysis and consensus-driven methods to transparently combine outcomes, (4) enhancing methodological reporting through intervention development and evaluation to improve scientific integrity and reproducibility, and (5) increasing PHIR expert involvement in ethics, funding, and evaluation committees to improve recognition of evidence produced in this field.
PROSPERO Registration number CRD42023401979
Agir contre les violences patriarcales : mobilisations féministes, théorisations et pratiques d’accompagnement des victimes
No full textBringing back gender and agency into the study of state-organised emigration from the French Caribbean
No full textArticle figurant dans un numéro spécial de la revue Modern and Contemporary France consacré à l'histoire du BUMIDOM et des migrations dans le cadre de la politique d'émigration des Antilles et de La Réunion. Numéro coordonné par Antonia Wimbush et Malika Danican
Why and how to improve nutritional care for pregnant women after bariatric surgery? the NUMASURG Study Protocol
No full textIntroduction: Pregnancies after bariatric surgery (BS) are considered at risk because of increased rate of maternal micronutrient deficiencies, small-for-gestational age and prematurity. Longer-term data on child health are scarce and conflicting. The objective of the NUMASURG project is to understand the consequences of micronutrient deficiencies during pregnancy after BS for the mother and the offspring and to better document the child’s health outcomes after maternal BS.
Methods: NUMASURG is a collaborative project bringing together clinicians, biologists, epidemiologists, clinical researchers and the French Obesity Research Center of Excellence network. The project is organized into four specific tasks: 1) establish a cohort of 1000 pregnant women with a history of BS; 2) establish reference values for nutritional biomarkers during pregnancy (vitamins A, B9, B12, 25(OH)-D, zinc, ferritin) from two birth cohorts of the French general population (EDEN and ELFE); 3) compare the nutritional status between pregnant women after BS and women from the general population and investigate the associations between nutritional biomarkers and small-for-gestational age and prematurity in both populations; and 4) describe the health of children born from mothers with a history of BS using the French national health data system. Started in September 2023, the project will run for 4 years.
Conclusion: The NUMASURG project will allow for implementing updated recommendations concerning the monitoring and nutritional supplementation of pregnant women with a history of BS. The ultimate objective is to improve the nutritional status of these women and consequently, limit the main risks currently observed during pregnancy after BS. Structuring a clinical database will help standardize practices and enable future research projects in this area, and will be a key first step in creating a prospective cohort of children born from mothers with a history of BS
Ageing of returnees to Morocco: Residential strategies under constraint?
No full textThe end of a person's active life is often a key moment in the emergence of new life projects involving, in particular, important issues linked to the choice of the place of residence or even the adoption of poly-residence practices. It is within this framework that many retired Moroccan immigrants in France choosing to return to Morocco as a residential choice for retirement are to be found in this particular situation. One option is a return migration to Morocco. However, the alternative to a move to Morocco often turns into Moroccans leading transnational lives which, in view of the ageing process, can be a questionable practice. Thus, this article analyses the different residential and mobility strategies implemented by ageing Moroccan immigrants. Have these retirees taken ageing into consideration in their residential strategies? The article is based on a survey conducted between 2017 and 2019 in the Souss-Massa region (Morocco) among 20 Moroccan retirees either returning permanently to Morocco or in regular circulation between France and Morocco. The article shows that the ageing of these ‘returning’ migrants raises several challenges of a financial, health and social isolation nature and that their care practices are transnational. Ageing sometimes implies changes in their initial residential and migratory projects. This could involve, for example, a wish to be reunited with the family, adapting their residential requirements and considering new mobility. However, we will also see that those without dual nationality and in precarious situations find their migration projects and residential choices restrained, particularly by difficulties in accessing certain social rights
Couples’ fertility differentials by education: do stepchildren make a difference?
No full textA growing number of studies has explored both partners’ education as determinant of couples’ fertility, acknowledging the fact that the decision to have a child is couple based. Still, those studies have solely focused on children born to the couple, without considering stepchildren. As a result, in studying couples’ birth rates by educational pairing, previous studies did not account for the complexity of family composition, which also affects partners’ decision to have a common child. In this paper, we aim at tackling family complexity and its association with education. Using Generations and Gender Surveys (GGS) data of 14 European countries, we analyse the association between educational pairing and couples’ fertility based on different definitions of couples’ children. Applying standard fertility analysis, overall results show a decline in childlessness among younger cohorts when stepchildren are considered, with strong educational difference. We found that among the younger cohorts, highly educated homogamous couples have less often stepchildren (born from one partner before the union) and remain less often without shared children. Stepchildren, instead, are more common among low educated couples, and among the heterogamous couples. We also found diversity among heterogamous couples: there are fewer stepchildren when one partner is highly educated, stepchildren more often come from the woman, especially when she is low educated