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A conditional fuzzy inference approach in forecasting
No full textThe paper introduces a conditional fuzzy inference approach in forecasting. Its merits are demonstrated in two forecasting applications. Conditional fuzzy inference achieves high forecasting performance. Conditional fuzzy inference can be a useful tool to operations research problems.This study introduces a Conditional fuzzy inference (CF) approach in forecasting. The proposed approach is able to deduct Fuzzy Rules (FRs) conditional on a set of restrictions. This conditional rule selection discards weak rules and the generated forecasts are based only on the most powerful ones. Through this process, it is capable of achieving higher forecasting performance and improving the interpretability of the underlying system. The CF concept is applied in a series of forecasting exercises on stocks and football games datasets. Its performance is benchmarked against a Relevance Vector Machine (RVM), an Adaptive Neuro-Fuzzy Inference System (ANFIS), an Ordered Probit (OP), a Multilayer Perceptron Neural Network (MLP), a k-Nearest Neighbour (k-NN), a Decision Tree (DT) and a Support Vector Machine (SVM) model. The results demonstrate that the CF is providing higher statistical accuracy than its benchmarks
What do we know about individual equity options?
No full textAbstract This paper examines the empirical literature on individual equity options, discussing results in areas of consensus, showing findings in areas of disagreement and providing a guide for future research (especially highlighting analyses that cannot be performed with index options). Key topics include the impact of equity option listings on the underlying stock market, option market efficiency, anomalies in equity option returns, option market microstructure, investors’ behavioral biases, option price discovery, and private information revealed in equity option markets. Some directions for future research include the determinants of equity option returns and the effect of algorithmic trading in option markets
Optimizing production capacity and safety stocks in general acyclic supply chains
No full textThis paper addresses the joint optimization of production capacity and safety stocks in supply chains under the guaranteed service approach (GSA). The integrated problem is formulated as a mixed integer nonlinear program (MINLP) and solution procedures are proposed in the cases of general acyclic and spanning tree networks. For general acyclic supply chains, the integrated problem is solved using a Lagrangian decomposition method which iteratively solves capacity planning and safety stock placement subproblems, and adds budget feasibility constraints to strengthen the Lagrangian decomposition lower bound. When the supply chain has a spanning tree structure, an efficient Lagrangian relaxation heuristic dualizes the budget constraint and solves the relaxed problem using a dynamic programming algorithm. Computational experiments on real-world instances show that the Lagrangian decomposition method is able to solve all instances within 0.1% optimality, while a state-of-the-art solver is unable to provide feasible solutions for large instances. In the case of spanning tree networks, the proposed Lagrangian relaxation heuristic finds optimal or near-optimal solutions and greatly improves running time in comparison to the Lagrangian decomposition method. In addition, numerical experiments show that savings can be achieved through joint optimization of capacity and safety stocks.We acknowledge the support provided by the Research Foundation - Flanders (FWO) for the project with contract number FWO.OPR.2016.0019.0
The career perspectives of graduates. Update 2020
No full textThe expectations final-year students have of their first job are still high. Good communication with their colleagues, a sociable atmosphere and plenty of opportunities for training are at the top of the list. What is more, these millennials prioritise career security over job security. They consider their relationship with their first employer to be temporary, expecting to work for a whole range of different companies during their working life. However, the Covid-19 outbreak has toned down their optimism about the future. Now afraid that fewer jobs will be available to suit their skills and qualifications, they are once again attaching greater importance to job security. The Centre for Excellence in Strategic Talent Management at Vlerick Business School has conducted its tenth large-scale study of final-year students’ expectations of the employment market and their career. 614 students who were due to graduate in June 2020 took part in the survey, of whom 294 were Masters students and 320 Advanced Masters. The research focuses both on their career plans and on what these ‘millennial’ graduates expect from their first employer. Last but not least, the study also contains important insights for companies hoping to recruit recent graduates
Strategy in turbulent times. Our take on how to survive a crisis and bounce back
No full textAs the saying goes, never waste a good crisis. We have certainly seen our fair share of crises in the past 30 years. And now there is the COVID-19 pandemic to add to the list. For some sectors, it is difficult to see the COVID-19 crisis as anything other than a threat. Notable examples include the hospitality industry, aviation and the performing arts sector. For others, such as diagnostics companies, the crisis has turned out to be a gold mine. Some companies have also made some very bold moves. In this white paper, Vlerick strategy experts have joined forces to reflect on the implications of the pandemic for businesses, to share best practices on how to deal with the current situation in the short term, and to offer methods and advice on how to build a strategy for the new normal. The message is not to all reinvent yourselves, but rather to put the COVID-19 crisis in perspective and answer some of the most pressing questions facing businesses today. How can you survive this crisis, and how can you be ready for the next one? How can you be better prepared for the future, bearing in mind that that future is unknown? Our Vlerick experts also explore why some organisations cannot see beyond the threats, while others seize the opportunities, and what you can do to help your company succeed. The COVID-19 pandemic may well have been the trigger, but the analysis and advice presented in this white paper have relevance far beyond the current crisis, a crisis that serves to show exactly how turbulent today’s environment is
Pharmaceutical net price transparency across European markets: Insights from a multi-agent simulation model
No full textIn innovative drug markets the widespread practice across the EU of country-specific confidential agreements reached between national payers and innovative pharmaceutical manufacturers continues to be a highly disputed basis for pharmaceutical health policy making. With pharmaceutical health policy striving for fair and sustainable pricing under increasing budgetary pressures, public stakeholders are more and more willing to be involved in transparent access decision-making related to novel medicines, considered to be a societal good. Full net price transparency is believed by many to promote price competition and to increase equity by making presently unaffordable pharmaceutical products accessible to patients in lower-income markets. To investigate the viability of a net price transparency (NPT) system we develop and analyse a multi-agent model representing the European country-level situation to conduct counterfactual analyses of various NPT systems. In line with previous recent NPT research in other geographical, regulatory and market contexts, we find that a full NPT system encompassing higher- and lower-income EU countries would not be viable. This while, counterintuitively and acting as rational economic agents, middle- and lower-income countries would not be deciding to join and give up their confidential agreement system with the pharmaceutical industry. Also, a full NPT system would be seen to be unjust while violating Ramsey pricing and distributive justice principles. Maximally, a partial price transparency system could be a viable solution if entailing only the group of high-income countries including UK and Germany committing to NPT, leaving all other countries free to opt for confidential discounts. Viability of this solution is contingent upon UK or Germany accepting a higher price than they could get in their present confidential rebate system. Finally, in a dynamic game theoretic analysis, we show that middle- and lower-income countries, might be joining the high-income group later. In any case, a net price transparency system would delay access in middle- to lower-income countries. Hence, we conclude that even a partial transparency system would be a challenging case to reach from a political perspective and it will negatively impact population health improvement by the novel therapy, especially in lower-income countries
High Tech and High Touch: The Future of Human Services
No full textIntroduction to the research problem Customers may engage in citizenship behaviours (CCBs) with the aims of benefiting service employees (SEs) (c.f., Garma and Bove, 2011). Despite the veracity of this phenomenon and its positive impact on SE well-being, little is yet known on customer motivations for engaging in these supportive actions (Oyedele and Simpson, 2011). Furthermore, it is argued that gratitude expressions following CCBs towards SEs can serve as the basis of a relationship between the interacting parties. Yet, existing literature remains relatively silent on the role of SE gratitude in customer-SE dyads (Mangus et al., 2017). As such, the current study explores customer motivations and expectations for performing CCBs towards SEs. It also captures the effects of SE gratitude, or lack thereof, for the outcome of the service interaction. Literature review Existing research suggests that customers may voluntarily engage in citizenship behaviours (CCBs) that go above and beyond their normative role. Overall, even though CCBs have been found to be associated with favorable organizational outcomes in prior studies (e.g., Groth , 2005; Yi et al., 2011), limited attention has been paid to CCBs that are separated on the basis of specific beneficiaries, such as SEs. More so, although the outcomes of such customer discretionary behaviours have been previously associated with positive indicators of service employee wellbeing (e.g., Verleye et al., 2016; Zimmermann et al., 2011), it is still speculative why customers may be willing to engage in helpful actions that benefit SEs. In addition, it is argued that a lack of a reciprocal response from SEs runs the risk of being associated with customer perceptions of SE ingratitude, which can lead to customer dissatisfaction (Payne et al., 2002). Conversely, SE expressions of gratitude can lead to the development of a relationship between the interacting parties through its function as a moral motivator (e.g., Bock et al., 2016; Greenbaum et al., 2019; Mangus et al., 2017; Palmatier et al., 2009; Raggio et al., 2014). Through the theoretical angle of role theory, equity theory, and social exchange theory, this research aims at fulfilling the so far lacking investigation of customer discretionary behaviours towards SEs. Understanding this complexity is vital for shedding light onto the function of gratitude during the service encounter, as well as on the effects of SE gratitude/ingratitude on relational outcomes. Method/Approach A qualitative interview procedure is undertaken and face-to-face interviews are conducted with customers of full-service restaurants. Restaurants lay fertile ground for fairly routine encounters, as customers have extensive experience with this context. Thus, they are more inclined to have well-developed scripts that guide their behaviour rather automatically. As a result, customer deviations from the script are likely to be more consciously performed in this setting. The aim of this study is fourfold: 1) to detect customer perceptions of behaviours that are performed by them with the aim of benefiting employees while executing their role of delivering the service; 2) to capture customers’ motivations for engaging in such beneficial behaviours; 3) to determine the expected outcome of these behaviours in terms of the service employee’s response; and 4) to investigate customer perceptions and reactions following the actual outcome response received from SEs. Results/Findings The results of the study indicate that there are diverse motivations that underlie customers’ willingness to perform CCBs towards SEs, which are directly and distinctly linked to their expectations for SE responses. In this vein, the research illustrates how customer emotionally supportive behaviour is associated with different motivations and expectations compared to instrumentally supportive behaviour. Furthermore, the exploratory study suggests that SE responses to CCBs can determine whether a simple transaction has the potential to develop into a mutually beneficial exchange between the two parties or not. Moreover, the study findings offer deeper insights into the antecedents, the outcomes, and the contextual factors that frame the occurrence of each type of customer beneficial behaviour. Overall, the findings represent a comprehensive illustration of the CCB phenomenon, leading to robust advice for theory builders and practitioners, specialized in services marketing. Discussion and implications The lack of research examining the motivations and expectations of customers for engaging in supportive actions towards service personnel is surprising, given that a) helpful customers reflect a potential resource for service employees, and b) gratitude expressions constitute a critical component for the formation of relationships between the exchange parties. Therefore, gaining an understanding of how to identify, approach, and respond to helpful customers can equip service managers with the necessary knowledge to promote the occurrence of such behaviours through appropriate SE training and service design. More importantly, however, establishing and maintaining a relationship with these beneficial customers becomes a real opportunity for building customer loyalty in a co-creating fashion. Overall, this paper integrates insights from CCB and social exchange theory to explain customers’ decisions to perform helpful actions that are intended to benefit SEs (and service companies, by extension). Additionally, the study investigates customer perceptions and reactions in the scenario of grateful and ungrateful employee responses along with the associated outcomes for the service encounter. As such, this paper illustrates that the exchanges between service employees and customers are interdependent and draws caution to the fact that for a service encounter to be symmetrical, balanced and thus jointly rewarding, expressions of appreciation and gratitude from the service firm are warranted. Such an approach is conducive to avoiding the potentially irreversibly harmful effects of customer perceptions of ingratitude. When motivations and expectations of helpful customers are not fully understood, disloyalty is a typical consequence in the service environment
Academy of Management Proceeding
No full textRefugees face numerous challenges trying to find their way in the labor markets of receiving countries. They are confronted with legal and administrative hurdles, language barriers, a lack of recognition for degrees or work experience obtained abroad, cultural misunderstanding, or even outright discrimination (EEPO, 2016). These obstacles systematically put refugees in inferior positions resulting in persistent employment gaps and a high risk of being overqualified in case of employment (European Union, 2016). In the light of increasing refugee flows worldwide (UNHCR, 2019), improving the status of refugees on local labor markets is high on the agenda of national governments and international institutions. Also, organizations, challenged by the scarcity of talent on the labor market or the need to include corporate social responsibility, are starting to become more aware of the necessity and potential benefits of including this new available talent pool in their workforce. This evolution challenges existing teams, line management, and HR practitioners to flexibly adapt to a diversifying internal workforce. In order to ameliorate refugees’ status on the labor market and within organizations, effective collaboration between stakeholders is key. Broadening our sight, this PDW takes a holistic perspective highlighting the needs, challenges and untouched potential at all interacting levels of the ecosystem. Furthermore, we will elaborate on the learnings for researchers and academics working with this research population
"Stress-oriented, data-based payment model for machine tools"
No full textThe acquisition costs of expensive machine tools are often a financial challenge for small and medium-sized enterprises, which is why many companies draw on traditional leasing models. For some types of machines, such as milling machines, however, there is no linear relationship between use and wear, thus creating a principle-agent problem and a potentially low(er) residual value of the machine in case of above-average use. Modern machine tools are increasingly equipped with sensors to monitor machining operations. The data from these sensors can help to deduce the wear of its components from the stress on the machine. Nevertheless, this has not resulted in data-driven, alternative payment models of expensive machines. Therefore, this paper presents a novel data-driven payment model based on a so-called stress factor, describing the aggregated machine wear due to the production process. This approach considers the economic and technologic perspectives to bring transparency to machine leasing
Making your way - The (wobbly) road to success and happiness in life and work
No full textDreaming big propels you forward. But it is often a bumpy road. In this book, two remarkable women unravel 15 persistent myths about the path to success and finding happiness in life and work, both from their own experiences and from their daily interactions with professionals. They want to encourage people to set themselves free from such myths and to pursue their dreams with confidence and optimism. In this inspiring book they share their personal stories, stimulating testimonies, and relevant scientific knowledge. Is the perfect job out there? How do you define success? Is it only about climbing the ladder? Does everything have to be planned out, preferably before your thirties? And what about so-called work-life balance? Discover their answers to all of these questions, and so much more. A book about dreaming big, lifelong learning, and daring to jump