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Accurately predicting earnings manipulation or accounting fraud instances using machine learning algorithms
No full textA column generation-based diving heuristic to solve the multi-project personnel staffing problem with calendar constraints and resource sharing
No full textProject managers are often responsible for the management of multiple projects and associated personnel budgeting decisions. In order to determine the workforce size and mix accurately, we integrate the multi-project scheduling problem and personnel staffing problem. We construct a baseline personnel roster that takes the personnel scheduling constraints into account and model the workload stemming from the project activities as an endogenous variable in the model. In order to decrease the overall staffing budget, we consider the sharing of resources, i.e. personnel resources can be transferred between projects. In the problem under study, we consider unproductive resource transfer times and different restrictions related to the sharing of resources imposed on the schedule of individual workers, which is often neglected in the literature. We propose a multi-stage solution procedure that exploits the optimal linear programming solution, obtained via column generation, to find a high-quality integer solution based on a diving heuristic. In order to improve the computational performance, different speed-up mechanisms are included relying on a state space reduction. Detailed computational experiments are presented to evaluate and benchmark different alternative optimisation strategies. Managerial insights are provided which give insight in the benefits of resource sharing.(Flemish Government, Research Foundation - Flanders
Pricing service maintenance contracts using predictive analytics
Get PDFAs more manufacturers shift their focus from selling products to end solutions, full-service maintenance contracts gain traction in the business world. These contracts cover all maintenance related costs during a predetermined horizon in exchange for a fixed service fee and relieve customers from uncertain maintenance costs. To guarantee profitability, the service fees should at least cover the expected costs during the contract horizon. As these expected costs may depend on several machine-dependent characteristics, e.g. operational environment, the service fees should also be differentiated based on these characteristics. If not, customers that are less prone to high maintenance costs will not buy into or renege on the contract. The latter can lead to adverse selection and leave the service provider with a maintenance-heavy portfolio, which may be detrimental to the profitability of the service contracts. We contribute to the literature with a data-driven tariff plan based on the calibration of predictive models that take into account the different machine profiles. This conveys to the service provider which machine profiles should be attracted at which price. We demonstrate the advantage of a differentiated tariff plan and show how it better protects against adverse selection
How shall we meet? Understanding the importance of meeting mode capabilities for different meeting objectives
No full textDistributed business meetings can be conducted in a variety of modes, such as audio-conferencing, video-conferencing, and telepresence, and can have different objectives, ranging from routine information sharing to relationship building. This paper examines whether and how differences in meeting mode effectiveness can be explained by the differing functional capabilities offered by each meeting mode (e.g., discerning facial expressions, experiencing co-location). Using data from the organizers of 612 business meetings, we identify the meeting capabilities perceived as important for different meeting objectives, and find multiple sets of meeting objectives that require the same combinations of capabilities. In addition, we examine whether the importance of different capabilities is affected by meeting size and duration. Using the results of the study, guidelines are developed to help meeting organizers select effective meeting modes based on meeting objectives.This research did not receive any specific grant from funding agencies in the public, commercial, or not-for-profit sectors
Regulatory experimentation in energy: Three pioneer countries and lessons for the green transition
No full textRegulatory experimentation is a novel approach to enable innovation in the energy sector, while maintaining the protection of consumers. We define regulatory experimentation as a temporary removal of regulatory barriers. This can be in the form of a derogation from a rule, but it can also mean assigning responsibility to players to conduct activities that they are normally not allowed to engage in. The outcomes of regulatory experiments inform future regulation. In this paper, we discuss experiences with regulatory experimentation in the energy sector of three pioneering countries: the Netherlands, Great Britain, and Italy. We compare the implementations along six design dimensions: eligible project promoters, scope of the derogations, length of the derogations, administration of the experiments, the access to public funding, and transparency. We also discuss how the early approaches have evolved in these countries. Finally, we look ahead and discuss how regulatory experimentation can evolve in the future European context to contribute to the green transition
Price-cost margins and fixed costs
No full textThis paper provides a new method to estimate price-cost margins in the presence of fixed costs of production. We exploit properties of the primal and dual revenue based and cost based Solow residual. Ignoring fixed costs in production underestimates price-cost margins and overestimates excess profit margins. Using a 30 year panel of Belgian firms we estimate price cost margins of 25.9% on average, with fixed costs as a fraction of sales of 23.4%. Fixed costs as well as price-cost margins have declined in the last three decades, pushing excess profit margins close to zero, suggesting competitive markets. The presence of fixed costs implies that price-cost margins might change not only due to a change in firms' market power, but also due to changes in the production process (i.e., the mix between variable and fixed costs) or even due to a combination of both. Our novel methodology is able to distinguish these underlying mechanisms, thereby providing an additional layer of insight to the ongoing academic and policy debate on firms' market power
Are sustanability-driven SMEs more resilient?
No full textWe have all heard about the urgency of shifting towards more sustainable business practices. Though large, mainly listed, companies have been under the scrutiny of regulators, customers, and media, a society cannot make the sustainability transition without the active involvement of SMEs. Today, SMEs in Europe count for more than 60% of value-added. However, ESG (Environmental, Social, and corporate Governance) transformation might be expensive, uncertain, and has a long-term nature. Hence, it is important for SMEs to understand that ESG practices not only benefit society but their resilience as well We measure resilience in terms of credit risk, and this is the first study that sheds light on this topic by analysing the impact of ESG performance on the credit risk of 350 Belgian SMEs. We find that, indeed, on average, investing in sustainability pays off as SMEs become more credit-worthy. In addition, the decrease of credit risk due to an increase of the least resilient SMEs’ ESG performance is also dependent on their liquidity. This study has been conducted by the Centre for Sustainable Finance at Vlerick Business School, and it has been financed by our partner ABN Amro Belgium
Using Schedule Risk Analysis with resource constraints for project control
No full textSchedule Risk Analysis (SRA) has shown to provide reliable activity sensitivity information for taking corrective actions during project control. More precisely, by selecting a small subset of activities with high sensitivity values for taking corrective actions, the project outcome can be improved. In resource constrained projects, disrupted activities can affect both their successors as well as other activities when resource conflicts are induced. Since SRA focuses solely on the project network to determine the sensitivity of activities, the traditional SRA metrics do not accurately reflect the activity sensitivity for resource constrained projects. In this paper, the traditional SRA metrics are extended for resource constrained projects, and a novel resource-based sensitivity metric is introduced (RC-SRA metrics). A computational experiment is conducted to investigate the ability of the RC-SRA metrics to identify activities with higher sensitivity values. In addition, two activity selection strategies, defined as the normal strategy and sequential strategy, are designed to select activities for taking corrective actions. Further, two types of corrective actions are proposed to reduce the activity duration or resource demand in case of delays, respectively. Finally, the impact of dynamically updating the RC-SRA metrics during project execution is examined. The computational results show that the normal activity selection strategy is recommended for serial projects, while the sequential strategy is preferred for parallel projects. The results also indicate that reducing the activity durations performs better than reducing the resource demand of activities. Finally, it is shown that updating the RC-SRA metrics dynamically during project execution improves the efficiency of the corrective action taking process
Neue Technologien im öffentlichen Sektor: Bürgerinnen und Bürger haben nur geringe Erwartungen.
No full textAktuelle technologische Entwicklungen (z.B. künstliche Intelligenz) führen immer wieder zu Debatten, wie diese sinnvoll für die öffentliche Verwaltung genutzt werden können. Die Verwaltung selbst und entsprechende Expertinnen und Experten diskutieren mögliche positive Wirkungen auch in Bezug auf Werte, wie Effizienz, Transparenz oder Fairness. Diese Studie untersucht, ob Bürgerinnen und Bürger von der Anwendung dieser Technologien in der öffentlichen Verwaltung ebensolche Wirkungen ebenso erwarten. Dabei wird auch analysiert, ob eine andere Erwartungshaltung als bei gewinnorientierten Unternehmen besteht. Die Befragungsergebnisse (N=1.577) zeigen, dass weder negative noch positive Erwartungen in Bezug auf Wirkungen dieser Technologien bestehen, das gilt für öffentliche wie für die privatwirtschaftliche Leistungserbringung. Es wird diskutiert, ob die Ergebnisse in der bisher mangelnden Anwendung der untersuchten Technologien begründet liegen oder aus einer unzureichenden Kommunikation mit und Einbindung von Bürgerinnen und Bürgern in entsprechende Planungs- und Implementationsprozesse resultieren