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An empirical project forecasting accuracy framework using project regularity
No full textForecasting an ongoing project’s actual duration is an essential aspect of project management which received considerable attention in the research community. In studies using Earned Value Management forecasting, it has been argued that the network topology is a driver to indicate the accuracy of these forecasts. However, a new project indicator has been recently defined, i.e. the project regularity, which reflects the value accrue according to the plan. It has shown to outperform the serial/parallel network topology indicator in specifying the accuracy of project forecasts. This paper introduces a novel way to define the project regularity, which provides project managers with an improved indication of the expected forecasting accuracy for their projects. The study is carried out on an empirical database consisting of 100 projects from different sectors, and the results are compared to the academic literature. The experiments show that the new indicator provides a better categorisation compared to the existing approaches. Further, they have shown that the ability of project categorisers to indicate the expected forecasting accuracy is affected by industry sector and project size
Team informational resources, information elaboration, and team innovation: Diversity mindset moderating functional diversity and boundary spanning scouting effects
No full textAbstract The knowledge integration perspective on team innovation holds that information elaboration – the exchange, discussion, and integration of task‐relevant information and perspectives – is the core team process driving team innovation. Factors reflecting the informational resources the team can draw on through information elaboration therefore are important influences on team innovation. In this respect, team innovation research points to team functional diversity and to team boundary spanning scouting to acquire information from outside the team. Team innovation research also makes clear that informational resources (as reflected in functional diversity and boundary spanning scouting) do not guarantee team information elaboration, and that identifying moderation in this relationship is particularly valuable. Building on this state of the science, we focus on the moderating role of the team diversity mindset – members' shared understanding of the importance of information elaboration for team performance – in the relationships of team functional diversity and boundary spanning scouting with information elaboration and team innovation. A multi‐wave and multi‐source survey of N = 215 teams involved in knowledge work in various Chinese organizations supported our research model for team boundary spanning scouting but not for team functional diversity
The visual analogue scale as a child-friendly measure of the unhealthy = tasty intuition
No full textWorldwide, obesity is a growing concern. The implicit belief that healthiness and tastiness in food are inversely related (the Unhealthy = Tasty Intuition or UTI) decreases healthy food consumption and increases the risk of obesity. Since also childhood obesity has increased at an alarming rate and a large component of adult obesity is established during childhood, questions about children's own food beliefs and preferences are important. However, methods currently used to assess the UTI are either unvalidated Likert scales or implicit measures that are time intensive and too complex to be used for children. Two studies presented here offer an alternative measurement - the simple visual analogue scale. The findings show that this measure is more effective in predicting dietary quality in adults and the frequency of healthy food consumption in children compared to more traditional measures. This simple and effective tool could be used by academics and health practitioners alike to better understand children's food beliefs at an early age, which is a critical step when addressing the increasing obesity problem
Energizing the future: An asset criticality framework for Fluvius
No full textFluvius, the largest multi-utility company in Flanders, has launched a programme to optimize inventory accessibility and visibility for their contractors. Adelard, the Head of Asset Planning, has worked closely with different departments at Fluvius and their partners to understand the current inventory issues and update the framework accordingly. The Case follows Adelard, who wants to increase inventory visibility and make it more agile. A simple missing part in mission-critical organizations, such as Fluvius, can significantly impact network availability or, more critically, operational safety. Thus, Adelard wants to define a criticality index to help prevent stockouts and simplify internal decision-making, using the analytic hierarchy process (AHP) analysis. He has already talked with experts from different departments about possible dimensions of the criticality index and compiled a pairwise comparison matrix for the AHP analysis. Ultimately, he wants to link criticality to their cost-based ABC segmentation and define policies to manage each segment
Evaluating the cost-emissions trade-offs of a modal shift in intermodal and synchromodal transportation planning
No full textAbstract Accepted by: Aris Syntetos Intermodal transportation planning combines road with more sustainable transportation modes to encourage a modal shift. To evaluate the impact of a modal shift on transportation cost and emissions, we propose an intermodal transportation planning model to provide transparency in the cost-emissions trade-off. The model incorporates minimum load requirements, time windows, freight consolidation and stochastic travel times to generate alternative transportation options. It also includes order consolidation to facilitate the utilization of transportation modes that would otherwise be infeasible due to, for instance, minimum load requirements. We also propose a synchromodal planning tool to evaluate re-planning and re-consolidation options in response to disruptions. We numerically illustrate the working of our model using a representative network setting and quantify the trade-offs concerning costs and emissions by evaluating different transportation route options
Food@Home (C): Sales forecasting
No full textThis is part of a case series. Food@Home fictional is a meal box delivery company that, under the leadership of Ella Joung, has successfully embraced digital transformation by incorporating innovative technologies in route optimization and warehousing. The finance director, John Crawford, recognized that their current budgeting process was outdated and labor-intensive. Therefore, he sought Ella's expertise to introduce a more data-driven approach. Ella proposed forecasting future sales, leveraging the detailed sales data collected since 2015. Acknowledging the limitations of relying solely on historical sales data, Ella expanded the dataset to include information on the price level, advertising campaigns run over the years, and external data such as COVID-19 infection rates, competitors, and economic inflation. The resulting comprehensive dataset provided Ella with the foundation to develop a sophisticated forecasting application, aligning Food@Home with modern budgeting practices and ensuring a more accurate prediction of future sales amidst changing market conditions
Influence of cost contingency management on project estimates at completion
No full textThe Earned Value Management (EVM) methodology provides an index-based Estimate at Completion (EAC) formula to forecast the final cost of an ongoing project. However, neither the EVM methodology nor the literature in cost forecasting considers the occurrence of risks and how the cost contingency reserve (CC) is used to mitigate them. This study proposes a risk-adjusted cost EAC methodology based on nonlinear regression that captures the CC spending profile and exploits it to improve the EAC forecasting performance. The CC spending profile reflects the preventive, neutral, or reactive risk management strategy (RMS) adopted, which dictates how the CC reserve is depleted throughout the project execution. The framework was tested on a dataset comprising 79 constructions and engineering projects to evaluate its performance across the projects’ early, mid, and late stages. Results show that the proposed methodology provides timely forecasts—mean absolute percentage error (MAPE) improves as the project progresses—and that a proactive RMS is the most reliable one in all stages, with MAPE values of 14.57%, 12.28%, and 11.42%, respectively.(Ministry of Education and Science of the Republic of Kazakhstan
Explainable AI for Operational Research: A defining framework, methods, applications, and a research agenda
No full textThe ability to understand and explain the outcomes of data analysis methods, with regard to aiding decision-making, has become a critical requirement for many applications. For example, in operational research domains, data analytics have long been promoted as a way to enhance decision-making. This study proposes a comprehensive, normative framework to define explainable artificial intelligence (XAI) for operational research (XAIOR) as a reconciliation of three subdimensions that constitute its requirements: performance, attributable, and responsible analytics. In turn, this article offers in-depth overviews of how XAIOR can be deployed through various methods with respect to distinct domains and applications. Finally, an agenda for future XAIOR research is defined
Academy of Management Proceedings
No full textSupporting employee growth is increasingly critical for organizations in the new world of work. Employees who experience growth are not only less likely to leave, but are also more likely to perform at their best (DeCarbo, 2023). Yet, a fragmented literature on growth at work limits our understanding of how employee growth is achieved and its impact on employees and organizations. This symposium brings together outstanding junior and senior academics who will present novel research insights on employee growth. Specifically, the set of papers included in the symposium explore how employees achieve growth from a number of perspectives, considering the mindsets, behaviors, and sensemaking that positively contribute to growth. Moreover, these papers, and the planned discussion, explore how each of these perspectives may learn and contribute to each other to form a more coherent perspective on growth and how it is achieved in organizations