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Understanding the Role of Daily Activities in the Transmission of COVID-19 in Urban Settings Using an Agent-Based Model
Full text linkThe COVID-19 pandemic has caused widespread disruption and prompted the implementation of nonpharmaceutical measures in several countries to contain the spread of the disease until a vaccine became available. Urban mobility reduction has historically been employed to limit the transmission of epidemics. However, only some studies have quantified the effectiveness of such restrictions across different sectors of society. To address this gap, we have adapted an agent-based model that utilizes data from the Google Community Mobility Report to simulate the dynamics of COVID-19 across 14 Brazilian capitals. Each agent in the model has a network of contacts established from mobility data across various categories. We simulated six scenarios for each capital, each with different probabilities of contagion in each category. Our findings show that different scenarios are more effective in describing the curve of infected people and deaths in each city. In particular, our results indicate that the same scenario was optimal for describing the number of cases and deaths in Belo Horizonte. However, the first peak in the number of deaths could not be reproduced in the model, possibly due to issues with the data recording. Our proposed model can be further developed to incorporate additional elements related to the dynamics of an epidemic and can serve as an additional tool in understanding and planning actions to contain the spread of COVID-19 beyond mobility, particularly in urban centers.publishedVersio
Welfare Service Providers’ Narratives of Digital Literacies Among Vulnerable Youths in Norway
Full text linkThe rapid digital transformation of society has intensified the need to develop general digital competence in the population, as it has become an essential requirement for participating in education, civil society, and the workforce. Digital competence has also become vital for benefiting from digitalized welfare services in rapidly digitalized societies such as Norway. Though the majority of citizens benefit from the increased accessibility and effectivity of the public sector as the result of digitalization, some life situations increase vulnerabilities in accessing welfare services. In this paper, we explore how the welfare service providers of youths not in education, employment, or training narrate the digital literacy of this group of youths. Drawing from an ecological and intersectional perspective on socio-digital inequalities, this paper operates under the premise that these service providers bear the responsibility of disrupting the cycle of socio-digital inequalities that youths might experience. This paper presents the results of a qualitative study conducted through seven individual and group interviews and two workshops with 20 welfare service providers. The findings shed light on how welfare service providers navigate the uncertainty surrounding the concept of digital literacy which is further challenged by the absence of guidelines—a lack that may inadvertently lead to new forms of exclusion and invisibility among youths.publishedVersio
«Tillit og respekt er limet i modellen»: Evaluering av JegEr Ung, alternativt opplæringstilbud på Jegersberg gård, Kristiansand kommune
Full text linkDenne rapporten om det alternative opplæringstilbudet JegEr Ung i Kristiansand kommune, er siste av tre rapporter fra en treårig følgeevaluering av tiltaket. Forskningen er gjennomført i et tett samarbeid mellom Kristiansand kommune, Jegersberg gård og NORCE Norwegian Research Centre AS. FoU-prosjektet er finansiert av prosjektskjønn-midler fra Statsforvalteren i Agder. Hovedfunnet i evalueringen er at JegEr Ung er et meget vellykket, virksomt og innovativt tiltak. Slik det er organisert i dag er det unikt.«Tillit og respekt er limet i modellen»: Evaluering av JegEr Ung, alternativt opplæringstilbud på Jegersberg gård, Kristiansand kommunepublishedVersio
Kunnskapsgrunnlag Stavanger kommune: Utfordringer knyttet til integrering av flyktninger i utdanning og arbeid
Full text linkDette kunnskapsgrunnlaget er knyttet til hvordan Stavanger kommune hittil har arbeidet innenfor rammene av Stortingets mål om at flyktninger og innvandrere skal integreres i det norske samfunnet gjennom kvalifisering og deltakelse i arbeidslivet. Formålet er å bidra til å gi kommunen bedre innsikt i hvordan de kan håndtere store bølger av flyktninger. Kunnskapsgrunnlaget bygger på individuelle- og fokusgruppeintervjuer med totalt åtte ansatte fra Flyktningtjenesten, Johannes Læringssenter, Karrieresenteret ved Rogaland fylkeskommune, NAV, Næringsforeningen i Stavanger, og Mulighetssenteret. Vi redegjør for de ulike funnene og hvordan disse har svart på de tre problemstillingene i studien: 1) Hvordan kartlegges flyktningenes kompetanse og erfaring? 2) Hvordan kobles flyktningene til aktuelle utdanningsløp og arbeidsgivere? 3) Hvordan tilrettelegger kommunen for å rekruttere kompetanse inn i yrker det i dag er mangel på arbeidskraft? Kunnskapsgrunnlaget gir en beskrivende analyse av hvordan kommunen arbeider innenfor hvert av disse områdene, samtidig som vi peker på utfordringer og muligheter for forbedring av praksis. Til slutt presenterer vi våre anbefalinger for videre arbeid og kunnskapsbehov.Kunnskapsgrunnlag Stavanger kommune: Utfordringer knyttet til integrering av flyktninger i utdanning og arbeidpublishedVersio
The future of Upernavik Isstrøm through the ISMIP6 framework: Sensitivity analysis and Bayesian calibration of ensemble prediction
Full text linkThis study investigates the uncertain future contribution to sea-level rise in response to global warming of Upernavik Isstrøm, a tidewater glacier in Greenland. We analyse multiple sources of uncertainty, including Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs), climate models (global and regional), ice–ocean interactions, and ice sheet model (ISM) parameters. We use weighting methods based on spatio-temporal velocity and elevation data to reduce ice flow model uncertainty and evaluate their ability to prevent overconfidence. Our developed initialization method demonstrates the capability of Elmer/Ice to accurately replicate the hindcast mass loss of Upernavik Isstrøm. Future mass loss predictions in 2100 range from a contribution to sea-level rise from 1.5 to 7.2 mm, with an already committed sea-level contribution projection from 0.6 to 1.3 mm. At the end of the century, SSP-related uncertainty constitutes the predominant component of total uncertainty, accounting for 40 %, while uncertainty linked to the ISM represents 15 % of the overall uncertainty. We find that calibration does not reduce uncertainty in the future mass loss between today and 2100 (+2 %) but significantly reduces uncertainty in the hindcast mass loss between 1985 and 2015 (−32 % to −61 % depending on the weighting method). Combining calibration of the ice sheet model with SSP weighting yields uncertainty reductions in future mass loss in 2050 (−1.5 %) and in 2100 (−32 %).publishedVersio
Insights from international environmental legislation and protocols for the global plastic treaty
Full text linkPlastic pollution has emerged as a global challenge necessitating collective efforts to mitigate its adverse environmental consequences. International negotiations are currently underway to establish a global plastic treaty. Emphasizing the need for solution-orientated research, rather than focusing on further defining the problems of widespread environmental occurrence and ecological impacts, this paper extracts insights and draws key patterns that are relevant for these international negotiations. The analysis reveals that (i) environmental rather than human health concerns have been the predominant driving force behind previous regulations targeting pollutants, and (ii) the decision to ban or discontinue the use of harmful pollutants is primarily affected by the availability of viable substitutes. These two key findings are relevant to the discussions of the ongoing Intergovernmental Negotiating Committee (INC) on the global plastic treaty and underscore the recognition of environmental consequences associated with plastic pollution while emphasizing the need to enhance the knowledge base of potential human health risks. Leveraging the availability of substitutes can significantly contribute to the development and implementation of effective strategies aimed at reducing plastic usage and corresponding pollution.publishedVersio
Primary care doctors in acute call-outs to severe trauma incidents in Norway – variations by rural-urban settings and time factors
Full text linkBackground A severely injured patient needs fast transportation to a hospital that can provide definitive care. In Norway, approximately 20% of the population live in rural areas. Primary care doctors (PCDs) play an important role in prehospital trauma care. The aim of this study was to investigate how variations in PCD call-outs to severe trauma incidents in Norway were associated with rural-urban settings and time factors. Methods In this study on severe trauma patients admitted to Norwegian hospitals from 2012 to 2018, we linked data from four official Norwegian registries. Through this, we investigated the call-out responses of PCDs to severe trauma incidents. In multivariable log-binomial regression models, we investigated whether factors related to rural-urban settings and time factors were associated with PCD call-outs. Results There was a significantly higher probability of PCD call-outs to severe trauma incidents in the municipalities in the four most rural centrality categories compared to the most urban category. The largest difference in adjusted relative risk (95% confidence interval (CI)) was 2.08 (1.27–3.41) for centrality category four. PCDs had a significantly higher proportion of call-outs in the Western (RR = 1.46 (1.23–1.73)) and Central Norway (RR = 1.30 (1.08–1.58)) Regional Health Authority areas compared to in the South-Eastern area. We observed a large variation (0.47 to 4.71) in call-out rates to severe trauma incidents per 100,000 inhabitants per year across the 16 Emergency Medical Communication Centre areas in Norway. Conclusions Centrality affects the proportion of PCD call-outs to severe trauma incidents, and call-out rates were higher in rural than in urban areas. We found no significant difference in call-out rates according to time factors. Possible consequences of these findings should be further investigated.publishedVersio
Characterization of conductivity fields through iterative ensemble smoother and improved correlation-based adaptive localization
Full text linkLocalization is critical to the effective use of an (iterative) ensemble Kalman filter or ensemble smoother to estimate uncertain quantities of interest. Here, we propose a novel, fully adaptive, correlation-based localization method (termed FBadap). We embed our FBadap approach within an iterative ensemble smoother to estimate three-dimensional spatially heterogeneous log-conductivity (Y) fields. The latter are characterized through a Generalized sub-Gaussian model, which includes the Gaussian distribution as a particular case. They constitute random fields within which head and concentration observations are collected at monitoring wells screened at multiple depths. To ensure transparent comparisons, we study and analyze the performance of our approach through a wide range of synthetic test cases. These comprise diverse configurations, including (a) various ensemble sizes, (b) various degrees of departure of the description of the spatial heterogeneity from a Gaussian model, as well as (c) different values of the mean and variance of the initial ensemble of Y. Our results show that (i) FBadap is robust adaptive approach enabling one to tackle a variety of settings; (ii) FBadap exhibits stronger adaptivity to cope with diverse ensemble sizes than FBconst, and can provide improved accuracy of conductivity estimates in comparison with traditional methods; and (iii) the quality of conductivity estimates is jointly impacted by the degree of departures of the reference Y field and of the initial ensemble of Y from a description based on a Gaussian model.Characterization of conductivity fields through iterative ensemble smoother and improved correlation-based adaptive localizationpublishedVersio
The impact on primary care of a large waterborne campylobacter outbreak in Norway: a controlled observational study
Full text linkObjective: Document the impact of an outbreak of gastroenteritis on local primary health careservices, compared to a control period. Design: controlled observational study with data from the outbreak and a control period. Dataobtained from electronic medical records (eMR) of general practitioners (GPs) and the out-of-hours (OOh) service. telephone data from the OOh service’s telephone records. Setting: campylobacteriosis outbreak in askøy municipality, Norway in 2019. Over 2000 individualswere infected. Subjects: Patients in contact with GPs and the OOh service during the outbreak and a controlperiod. Main outcome measures: Patient contacts with GPs and the OOh service during the outbreakand a control period. Results: there was a 36% increase in contacts during the outbreak compared to the controlperiod (4798 vs. 3528), with the OOh service handling 78% of outbreak-related contacts. telephoneadvice was the dominant method for managing the increase in contacts to primary care, both inOOh services and daytime general practice (OR 3.73 ci: [3.24–4.28]). children aged 0–4 years hadincreased use of primary care during the outbreak (OR 1.51 ci: [1.28–1.78]). GPs referred 25% andOOh services referred 75% of 70 hospitalized cases. Conclusion: the OOh service handled most of the patients during the outbreak, with supportfrom daytime general practice. the outbreak caused a shift towards telephone advice as a meansof providing care. Young children significantly increased their use of primary care during theoutbreak.The impact on primary care of a large waterborne campylobacter outbreak in Norway: a controlled observational studypublishedVersio
Kartlegging av arbeidsmiljøarbeid i 74 barnehager
Full text linkFormålet med dette kartleggingsprosjektet var å besvare følgende problemstilling: Hvordan har tiltakene i bransjeprogrammet bidratt til IA-avtalens mål om å bedre arbeidsmiljø, redusere sykefravær og hindre frafall på kort og lengre sikt? For å svare på dette benyttet vi en trianguleringsmetode der vi gjennomførte en spørreundersøkelse, intervjuet styrere og representanter fra partsgruppen, samt innhentet registerdata om sykefravær. Et overordnet funn er at bransjeprogrammet har medvirket til en bevisstgjøringsprosess der arbeidsmiljø, partssamarbeid og medarbeiderskap er blitt satt på dagsorden. Barnehagene har jobbet systematisk med prosesser knyttet til rolleavklaring, samarbeid, kulturbygging og holdningsarbeid i hele organisasjonen. De har fått tilgang til konkrete verktøy og metoder og det var spesielt motiverende å delta på erfaringskonferanse der de kunne få kunnskapspåfyll ved å lære av andres erfaringer.Kartlegging av arbeidsmiljøarbeid i 74 barnehagerpublishedVersio