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ABC-based forecasting in misspecified state space models
No full textApproximate Bayesian Computation (ABC) has gained popularity as a method for conducting inference and forecasting in complex models, most notably those which are intractable in some sense. In this paper, we use ABC to produce probabilistic forecasts in state space models (SSMs). Whilst ABC-based forecasting in correctly-specified SSMs has been studied, the misspecified case has not been investigated. It is this case that we emphasize. We invoke recent principles of ‘focused’ Bayesian prediction, whereby Bayesian updates are driven by a scoring rule that rewards predictive accuracy; the aim being to produce predictives that perform well in that rule, despite misspecification. Two methods are investigated for producing the focused predictions. In a simulation setting, ‘coherent’ predictions are in evidence for both methods. That is, the predictive constructed using a particular scoring rule often predicts best according to that rule. Importantly, both focused methods typically produce more accurate forecasts than an exact but misspecified predictive, in particular when the degree of misspecification is marked. An empirical application to a truly intractable SSM completes the paper.</p
Exploring religious practice in crisis:a non-Western tension-centered approach to meaningful work
Get PDFThis study develops a religious practice(s) approach to explore the tensional nature and process of meaningful work. We first problematize existing workplace spirituality approaches to management and organization studies (MOS) generally and meaningful work specifically. Our focus is the individual-organizational and positive-critical divides and overlooked tensions and in-betweenness within these divides. We propose a religious practice(s) approach as an alternative lens to address this in-betweenness, drawing on the theory and practices of Buddhist emptiness to theorize meaningful work as a tensional process unfolding at the intersection between the gaining and losing of meaningfulness. We explore this tensional in-betweenness empirically through 51 in-depth, semi-structured interviews with Buddhist practitioners on their lived experiences of meaningful work during the Covid-19 pandemic. Our findings reveal two realization processes that manifest the tensional in-betweenness of meaningful work during the Covid-19 pandemic, and which entrap and emancipate individuals in their pursuit of meaningful work. Our contribution is threefold. First, we develop a religious practice(s) approach to MOS by addressing the existing divides in workplace spirituality perspectives and the resulting overlooked tensions inherent in experiencing meaningful work. In doing so, we also extend the existing understanding of ‘tension’ in meaningful work, which has predominantly been treated as self-evidential and not yet fully integrated into the theorization of meaningful work. Third, we move away from the over-reliance on Western-centred theories through contextualized theory-building. This, we hope, will develop non-Western theorization in MOS and in turn prompt a more enriched, multidimensional understanding of meaningful work.</p
Does Treatment Adherence Impact Experiment Results in TDD?
Get PDFContext:In software engineering (SE) experiments, the way in which a treatment is applied could affect results. Different interpretations of how to apply the treatment and decisions on treatment adherence could lead to different results when data are analysed. Objective: This paper aims to study whether treatment adherence has an impact on the results of an SE experiment. Method: The experiment used as test case for our research uses Test-Driven Development (TDD) and Incremental Test-Last Development, (ITLD) as treatments. We reported elsewhere the design and results of such an experiment where 24 participants were recruited from industry. Here, we compare experiment results depending on the use of data from adherent participants or data from all the participants irrespective of their adherence to treatments. Results: Only 40% of the participants adhere to both TDD protocol and to the ITLD protocol; 27% never followed TDD; 20% used TDD even in the control group; 13% are defiers (used TDD in ITLD session but not in TDD session). Considering that both TDD and ITLD are less complex than other SE methods, we can hypothesize that more complex SE techniques could get even lower adherence to the treatment. Conclusion: Both TDD and ITLD are applied differently across participants. Training participants could not be enough to ensure a medium to large adherence of experiment participants. Adherence to treatments impacts results and should not be taken for granted in SE experiments.</p
Inconsistency across short-term and long-term oriented signals:effect on investor reactions
Get PDFWe examine how investors evaluate firms when they receive inconsistent signals with different temporal orientations—short-term signals about the firm's status quo versus long-term signals about its prospects. We propose that shareholders react negatively to increased long-term investments, like R&D, when managers express negative sentiments about the firm's current status. Drawing on signaling and cognitive dissonance theories, we argue that these inconsistent signals cause cognitive dissonance for investors, leading to risk-averse decisions. Analyzing public firms in China from 2008 to 2020, we find that higher R&D intensity amplifies the negative impact of management's negative sentiment on market reaction. This effect is stronger with higher transient institutional ownership and lower managerial ownership. By focusing on signal inconsistency across different temporal frames, this study aims to better understand how investors evaluate a firm's long-term investments in light of managers’ sentiments about the current state.</p
The problem with Pod Man
No full textPod Man is the rational, individual and hyper-masculine transport consumer entrenched in industry narratives focused on automated vehicle technologies and infrastructures. This article interrogates how these narratives are constituted, the futures they imagine, predict and promote, and how people and households are presented within these futures. The discussions in this article are based on a content analysis of sixty industry reports. While there is an emerging body of research engaging with the gendered and racialised dimensions of future automated mobilities, previous studies have for the most part focused on conceptual and promotional visualisations of automated vehicles. Building on this existing work, I argue that equal attention needs to be paid to the ideologies and agendas embedded in industry reports. Taken together, the visual representations and industry reports contribute to large scale anticipatory narratives about possible futures. To better understand and critique the values and logics of these narratives, I discuss how the Pod Man persona underlies visions of automated vehicles and its potential consequences for shaping potential future trajectories.</p
The effectiveness of aquatic and leisure facility advertising:an older adult perspective
No full textLocal governments in Australia invest significant public funds in aquatic and leisure facilities (ALFs) to support leisure-time physical activity (LTPA). LTPA advertising including imagery attempts to counter trends toward physical inactivity and present LTPA opportunities. Online advertising offers a promising mode of delivery to disseminate information about LTPA opportunities and encourage participation. Guided by visual ageism and the information environment theory, this article examines older adult’s perceptions of ALF website images. The study utilized semi-structured interviews with (n = 18) older adults (M = 71 years of age) and a deductive thematic analysis. Participants raised concerns regarding the portrayal of older adults as ill, incapable, and the ‘grouping’ of older adults in images. Additionally, participants encouraged age diversity in imagery as there are shared health and fitness goals across all age groups. The paper concludes by recommending ALF management adopt ‘design for dynamic diversity’ principles and increase older adult participation in advertising design.</p
Choreography and improvisation in hybrid teaching
No full textIdeas of space within higher education are changing, influenced by pedagogical innovation, emerging technologies, and the experiences of the Covid-19 pandemic. This is most obvious in the expansion of hybrid education, where teaching happens simultaneously both online and on the physical campus. Hybrid learning spaces emerge from dynamic, sociomaterial entanglements that include a range of stakeholders, contextual elements, teaching methods, infrastructure, and more. In this article, we use reflections from our own practice within three postgraduate courses at a UK university to illustrate some key challenges of hybrid teaching. Drawing on sociomaterial research, we propose that choreography and improvisation, as understood within the field of dance, offer valuable perspectives for understanding the dynamic interactions between human and material elements in hybrid learning. We argue that these concepts can complement more familiar understandings of design and orchestration, particularly in hybrid environments, by surfacing alternative considerations of objects, people, activities, and movement across online and in-room spaces.</p
Students’ perceptions of different assessment modes and student experience
No full textThis study investigates student experiences and perceptions of online and face-to-face assessments. Focus groups were conducted with students at three Australian universities to understand their experiences of online examinations. Student perceptions and experiences of online examinations were mixed. Benefits include better reflecting workplaces and being able to complete the examination at a time that suited them. Whilst many students found taking online assessments at home less stressful, others felt they were less likely to perform well when compared to assessments on campus. Students also identified several challenges with online assessments. Students experienced stress due to failing technologies; needed additional time required to ‘write’ examinations; experienced feelings of isolation; and perceived that questions might be harder to prevent cheating.</p
Antibiotic economies:the economisation of antibiotic use in Australia and implications for the mitigation of antimicrobial resistance
No full textThis paper examines how economic rationalities shape antibiotic usage with the aim of expanding options for the reduction of antimicrobial resistance (AMR). Antibiotic usage is typically attributed to the individual behaviours of patients, pet owners and prescribers, an emphasis that has neglected sociological explanations, particularly the economic rationalities that are transforming healthcare. We used sociological theory of pharmaceutical capitalisation and economisation to explore in-depth interviews on antibiotic usage with scientists, policymakers, prescribers, patients and pet owners in Australia. Antibiotics attracted values in terms of cost to the patient and pet owner, profit for the clinic, how the drugs saved time away from work and childcare, and how they eased the pressures of self-care, parenting and pet ownership. Economic transactions that are only partially under individual patient and prescriber control shape antibiotic use. In these circumstances, antibiotic use is influenced by other social agents—for example, business managers and clinic owners—decentring prescriber authority. Adoption of socio-economic values of antibiotic usage and inclusion of its other economic agents is needed to improve AMR intervention effectiveness.</p
Corporate sexual orientation equality and dividend payout
No full textWe examine the effect of a firm’s Lesbian, Gay, Bisexual, and Transgender (LGBT)-friendly policies on its dividend payout and find a significantly positive association. We propose two alternate arguments to explain this association. The disbursement of higher dividends could potentially alleviate the perception of agency costs arising from better treatment of LGBT employees. Alternatively, firms could pay higher dividends (i.e. deplete cash) to increase their bargaining power with labor. Our results support the agency argument. Our findings are robust to alternative models and measures.</p