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Pengepolitisk rapport 2/2024
Get PDFDen pengepolitiske strategien beskriver hvordan komiteen tolker mandatet for pengepolitikken og gir en ramme for komiteens vurderinger av hvordan pengepolitikken vil innrettes i møte med ulike forstyrrelser. På møtene 4. og 12. juni 2024 drøftet komiteen de økonomiske utsiktene og innretningen av pengepolitikken. På grunnlag av drøftingene og en anbefaling fra bankens administrasjon fattet komiteen på møtet 19. juni vedtak om styringsrenten. Prognosen i denne rapporten indikerer en styringsrente som blir liggende på 4,5 prosent ut året, før den gradvis settes ned.publishedVersio
Energiomstilling av bolig kan bli en netto kostnad for gjennomsnittshusholdningen
Get PDFEnergiforbruk i bolig utgjør over 30 prosent av årlig norsk bruk av elektrisitet. Regjeringen har lagt fram mål om at energiforbruket i boligsektoren skal ned. Tiltak som kan øke energieffektiviteten i boligsektoren er både kjente og tilgjengelige, men de vil kreve en betydelig investering. Vi tar utgangspunkt i estimert energikonsum per bolig. Vi analyserer norske boligeieres evne til å finansiere strengere krav til energieffektivitet uten offentlig støtte. Anslaget er basert på informasjon om boligeiers inntekt, gjeld og formue samt boligens estimerte strømforbruk i dag, størrelse og type. Vi finner at om lag 10 prosent av boligeierne ikke har økonomi til å gjennomføre tiltakene som kreves for å etterleve kravene. Tiltakene gir lavere strømregning, men med dagens renter og strømpriser er det grunn til å tro at en slik energieffektivisering i sum er en netto kostnad for gjennomsnittshusholdningen. For å kunne vurdere disse kostnadene er det viktig med bedre informasjon om boligens energiforbruk. Hvis energieffektiviseringen skal lånefinansieres, vil det øke etterspørselen etter nye lån.publishedVersio
The dynamics of stock market participation
Get PDFWe document novel facts on the exit and reentry margins of stock market participation by retail investors using detailed administrative data on every Norwegian resident from 1993 to 2016. Contrary to the conventional view that individuals either never or always participate in the stock market, we find that many households leave the stock market within just 2 years of entry. Such behavior is more prominent for people of low income, wealth, and educational attainment, and those of younger age. Estimation of a hazard function shows that there is negative duration dependence in exit probabilities: the longer households participate for, the less likely they are to exit. With respect to the reentry margin, over 30% of exiters subsequently return to the stock market, often just a year later. A structurally-estimated life-cycle model with participation costs fails to generate sufficient exits. Extending the model to allow for experience-based learning, whereby agents form beliefs over the equity premium based on their personal realized returns, improves the model fit of participation rates, conditional risky shares, and financial wealth-to-income ratios by over half, whilst also generating quick exits and a downward-sloping hazard function for exit. However, the model still struggles to generate enough reentry. Using granular portfolio holdings data, we show that poor initial returns are associated with quick exits from the stock market, while positive returns increase the likelihood of reentry in line with an experience effects channel.publishedVersio
Rewiring supply chains through uncoordinated climate policy
Get PDFWe show that climate transition risks can significantly disrupt supply chain networks. Specifically, suppliers affected by the California cap-and-trade program are more likely to lose customer relationships and less likely to form new ones compared to their competitors unaffected by the program. The effects are more pronounced among suppliers facing high competitive pressure and producing standardized inputs. Additionally, affected suppliers experience declines in revenues, assets, and profitability. This supply chain rewiring induced by uncoordinated climate policies is consistent with carbon leakage, as customers exposed to the program through production networks show an increase in their supply chain emission intensity.publishedVersio
New microdata for loan defaults provide better estimates of banks’ credit losses
Get PDFLoans to non-financial firms are the main source of banks’ losses. In order to assess credit risk, Norges Bank has long used models to assess firms’ bankruptcy probability. However, the banks’ credit losses are more closely linked to firms that default on their loans. Defaulting loans are only partly comprised of loans to firms that go bankrupt. Loan defaults are therefore likely a better indicator of banks’ losses than bankruptcies. Microdata on both credit losses and loan defaults have historically been limited, especially compared to microdata on bankruptcies. Improved access to microdata for loan defaults allows us to analyse the relationship between loan defaults and bankruptcy at the micro-level. We find a strong correlation between loan default and bankruptcy, but that the relationship varies across industries and the analysis period. In particular, the Covid-19 pandemic marks a difference in this relationship. We use analysis insights to develop a model that estimates default probabilities, and to estimate new loan defaults going forward. Finally, we show how to use this exercise to improve estimates of banks’ corporate loan losses. These estimates will form part of Norges Bank’s assessment of credit risk in the Norwegian banking system.publishedVersio
Soon appropriate to begin easing monetary policy
Get PDFIntroductory statement by Governor Ida Wolden Bache at the press conference following the announcement of the policy rate on 19 December 2024.publishedVersio
Survey on crypto-assets in Norway
Get PDFThis memo presents data from a survey on the Norwegian population’s awareness, ownership and use of crypto-assets. The survey was conducted by Norges Bank with the assistance of Ipsos in January and February 2024. This is the first time Norges Bank has conducted such a survey. The survey is part of Norges Bank’s efforts to gain more knowledge about the importance of crypto-assets in Norway. Among other things, Norges Bank uses this knowledge to analyse the consequences of crypto-assets for an efficient and secure payment system and financial stability.publishedVersio
Nærmere om modellene omtalt i utdypingen «En svakere kronekurs løfter prisveksten – men hvor mye?» i Pengepolitisk rapport 3/24
Get PDFDette notatet gir en nærmere beskrivelse av de tre empiriske modellene som er benyttet i utdypingen om valutakursgjennomslaget i PPR 3/24, side 41-44.publishedVersio
Effekter av ny standardmetode og nytt gulv for IRB-bankene
Get PDFEU planlegger å endre kapitaldekningsreglene for bankene i 2025. Regelverksendringene blir innført i Norge gjennom EØS-avtalen. Våre resultater viser at regelverksendringene kan gi små og mellomstore banker (standardmetodebanker) med lav risiko en betydelig reduksjon i kapitalkravet. Det kan gjøre standardmetodebankene i stand til å tilby billigere lån. De nye reglene vil ha begrenset betydning for de største norske bankene (IRB-bankene), men det kan bidra til likere og mer sammenlignbare kapitalkrav mellom norske og utenlandske banker. Samlet sett kan derfor regelverksendringene gi likere konkurransevilkår for banker i Norge.publishedVersio