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Effects of e-bikes on bicycle use and mode share
Get PDFIn Norway, as in many countries, a political goal is to increase bicycle use, and the e-bike is promising in this respect. However, concerns have been raised about mode-share effects. It has been argued that if the e-bike’s only function is in cycling becoming cycling with electric assistance, there would be no benefit to either the environment or public health. Little is yet known about the use of the e-bike, or of its potential in reducing motorized travel. In the current study, 66 randomly selected participants were given an e-bike to use for a limited period of time and the results compared with those of a control group (N = 160). E-bike cycling trips increased from 0.9 to 1.4 per day, distance from 4.8 km to 10.3 km and, as a share of all transport, from 28% to 48%, whereas with the control group there was no increase in cycling. The effect of the e-bike increased with time, indicating a learning effect among users, and was greater for female than for male cyclists. There were no differences with age. Overall, the results suggest that the e-bike is indeed practical for everyday travel.acceptedVersio
Carbon dioxide emission standards for U.S. power plants: An efficiency analysis perspective
Get PDFOn June 25, 2013, President Obama announced his plan to introduce carbon dioxide emission standards for electricity generation. This paper proposes an efficiency analysis approach that addresses which emission rates (and standards) would be feasible if the existing generating units adopt best practices. A new efficiency measure is introduced and further decomposed to identify different sources' contributions to emission rate improvements. Estimating two Data Envelopment Analysis (DEA) models – the well-known joint production model and the new materials balance model – on a dataset consisting of 160 bituminous-fired generating units, we find that the average generating unit's electricity-to-carbon dioxide ratio is 15.3% below the corresponding best-practice ratio. Further examinations reveal that this discrepancy can largely be attributed to non-discretionary factors and not to managerial inefficiency. Moreover, even if the best practice ratios could be implemented, the generating units would not be able to comply with the EPA's recently proposed carbon dioxide standard.submittedVersio
Driving forces of road freight CO2 in 2030
Get PDFPurpose – Road freight carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions are determined by a complex interaction between shippers and hauliers within the boundaries set by regulations and economic factors. It is necessary to gain understanding about the various driving forces and trends affecting these to promote low carbon future. The purpose of this paper is to find out what factors affect the long-term future development of road freight CO2 emissions and whether the long-term emission targets will be achieved. Design/methodology/approach – An international comparison of similar Delphi surveys is carried out in Finland, Norway, and Sweden. Findings – The Delphi surveys indicate that the structural change of the economy, changes of consumer habits, concerns of energy and environment and changes in logistics practices and technology are the overarching trends shaping the future of the energy efficiency and CO2 emissions of road freight transport. The expert forecasts for Finland and Sweden highlight that reaching the carbon emission target of 30 per cent reduction for the year 2030 is possible. However, the CO2 emissions may also increase significantly even though the CO2 intensity would decrease, as the Norwegian forecast shows. Originality/value – This study combined quantitative and qualitative analysis. The results confirmed that similar factors are seen to affect the future in all three countries, but with some national differences in the likely effects of the factors. Future research using the same methodology would enable wider analysis of the global significance of these driving forces.acceptedVersio
Mimisbrunnr Climate Park - a network for heritage learning, tourism development, and climate consciousness
Get PDFIncreased ice melting revealed in 2006–2007 many reminiscences of ancient human activity around ice patches near Mt Galdhøpiggen, Norway's highest mountain peak. The public limited company “Klimapark 2469 AS” was established to develop a heritage interpretation product and to study climate change. A 60-metre long ice tunnel is excavated in the ice patch Juvfonna, where guided walks and a display presenting climate change, archeology, Norse mythology, and glaciology are offered. The heritage product, “Mimisbrunnr Climate Park 2469” (MK2469), is based on collaboration between scientific institutions, public authorities, the National Mountain Museum, and private tourist companies. The ambition is to combine science, environmental learning, interpretation, heritage tourism, and local development. Based on interviews and relevant documents, we have studied the network – the actors, their ambitions, and networking processes: What are the perceived opportunities, challenges, outcomes, and success factors? Good strategic work has resulted in extensive public funding and sponsorship, and MK2469 has become a diverse, quality heritage product, but so far with little commercial success. An important outcome is the fruitful exchange of experiences, between public and private partners, tourism and science interests, amateurs and professionals, and between local, regional and national actors. The network has shown to be quite dynamic.Mimisbrunnr Climate Park - a network for heritage learning, tourism development, and climate consciousnessacceptedVersio
The Dutch road to a high level of cycling safety
Get PDFMany governments attempt to improve cycling safety to reduce the number of bicycle crashes and encourage cycling. The Netherlands is a world leader in bicycle use and safety. This paper explores how the Netherlands achieved an 80% reduction in the number of cyclists killed (predominantly bicycle–motor vehicle crashes) per billion bicycle kilometres over a thirty year period. Factors found to contribute to this improvement include the establishment of a road hierarchy with large traffic-calmed areas where through traffic is kept out. A heavily used freeway network shifts motor vehicles from streets with high cycling levels. This reduces exposure to high-speed motor vehicles. Separated bicycle paths and intersection treatments decrease the likelihood of bicycle–motor vehicle crashes. The high amount of bicycle use increases safety as a higher bicycle modal share corresponds with a lower share of driving and greater awareness of cyclists among drivers. Low cycling speed was also found to contribute to the high level of cycling safety in the Netherlands.acceptedVersio
Car drivers' valuation of landslide risk reductions
Get PDFApproximately one car occupant per year is killed as a result of landslides or avalanches in Norway, compared to 150–200 fatalities due to accidents. Still, protection from landslides is a major transport safety issue, possibly due to the concern and dread felt by the car-driving population travelling through landslide-prone areas. A main challenge when valuing landslide risk economically lies in distinguishing it from the standard road accident risk of having a collision or running off the road.
In this paper we present an approach to the valuation of landslide risk, using a stated choice experiment where internet survey respondents were asked to choose between route alternatives that differed in terms of landslide risk, casualty risk, time use and cost. Thus, landslide risk was explicitly valued as an attribute, besides travel time and casualty risk, conveying a valuation of a feature different than the risk of fatality or injury caused by ordinary road accidents.
The stated route choice data were analysed using mixed logit models. We obtained point estimates for the value of landslide risk removal per kilometre driven ranging from about EUR 0.2 to EUR 0.3. These results indicate that landslide risk was perceived as something different from casualty risk related to collisions with other road users or driving off the road. More research is warranted for developing the procedures for valuation of landslide risk before such valuations can enter as input into cost-benefit analyses of landslide-reducing measures.submittedVersio
Technopolis, shared resources or controlled mobility? A net-based Delphi-study to explore visions of future urban daily mobility in Norway
Get PDFIt is widely recognized that transformation of urban areas are urgent to meet the demands for more efficient and environmental friendly transportation in the future. Although there are general agreements on the need for change, different ideas and visions for the future dominate across different groups of stakeholders and academics. In this paper we explore various views on the future of everyday travelling in urban regions, 30–40 years ahead, focussing in particular on four larger urban areas in Norway. Based on an innovative web-based Delphi-study, involving 280 national experts, various conceptions of future urban travelling is explored. An explorative factor analysis (principal component analysis) is applied to reveal three slightly different understandings of how the urban future may look like in 2050. These three visions - labelled as “Controlled mobility”, “Technopolis” and “Shared mobility”- suggests slightly different scenarios’ for the future of urban travelling.publishedVersio
Methodological challenges in modelling the choice of mode for a new travel alternative using binary stated choice data - The case of high speed rail in Norway
Get PDFBinary stated choices between traveller’s current travel mode and a not-yet-existing mode might be used to build a forecasting model with all (current and future) travel alternatives. One challenge with this approach is the identification of the most appropriate inter-alternative error structure of the forecasting model.
By critically assessing the practise of translating estimated group scale parameters into nest parameters, we illustrate the inherent limitations of such binary choice data. To overcome some of the problems, we use information from both stated and revealed choice data and propose a model with a cross-nested logit specification, which is estimated on the pooled data set.submittedVersio
Deregulation of the Norwegian long distance express coach market
Get PDFThis paper offers new insight to the effects of long distance express coach deregulation in Norway, which formally happened gradually between 1998 and 2003. We study data over a period that spans from the years prior to deregulation and up to 2010. We document the degree of both competition and cooperation in the market, which has taken a particular form in Norway due to historical requirements on coach operations. We also document that the market has changed character as a consequence of intermodal competition, in particular with air traffic. Our paper documents the successful development of an often neglected public transport mode, which has the potential to make long distance passenger transport more efficient more sustainable, and with hardly any subsidy requirements.acceptedVersio
Safety effects of section control - An empirical Bayes evaluation
No full textAlena Høye, Safety effects of section control - An empirical Bayes evaluation, Accident Analysis & Prevention, Volume 74, 2015,
Pages 169-178, ISSN 0001-4575, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.aap.2014.10.016.The safety effects of section control were investigated at 14 sites in Norway. A before–after study was conducted with the empirical Bayes method in order to control for regression to the mean (RTM). Effects of trend, volumes, speed limit changes and speed cameras at some of the sites in the before period are controlled for as well. For injury crashes a non-significant reduction by 12% was found. The number of killed or severely injured was found to be significantly reduced by 49% at the section control sites. The results indicate that the crash reductions in tunnels (most of which are undersea tunnels with section control on steep downhill segments) are at least of the same magnitude as on open roads. The results are consistent with findings from speed measurements, although the crash reductions are larger than one would expect as a result from the speed reductions. Downstream of the section control sites (up to 3 km in each direction) injury crashes were found to be significantly reduced by 46%. The number of KSI downstream of the section control sites is too small for drawing any conclusions. It is concluded that section control is effective in reducing both speed and crashes, especially serious crashes, and that spillover effects (crash reductions at non-enforcement sites) are more likely to occur than crash migration. The size of the effects that were found should be interpreted with caution because of the relatively short after periods for some of the sites and the sensitivity of the results to the outcomes of individual crashes.Safety effects of section control - An empirical Bayes evaluationacceptedVersio