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Triggers of Urban Passenger Mode Shift – State of the Art and Model Evidence
Get PDFMode shift is at the core of sustainable transport in all world cities; yet we know comparatively little about it. While there is ample evidence of within-mode demand effects, we know in general very little about what mode these new passengers came from. This paper addresses this issue by gathering existing evidence of cross-mode demand interactions (or cross elasticities) from studies conducted worldwide, and by presenting new evidence of cross-mode elasticities from Greater Oslo. We establish the theoretical, methodological and empirical states of the art with respect to demand effects at a system level, i.e. across transport modes. We present and compare empirical evidence and identify the influence of various factors on the variation in the cross elasticities, including context factors and methodological factors. Next, we present new evidence of cross elasticities from a study conducted in Greater Oslo based on 15,000 travel observations. Our model illustrates very well how the same triggers, e.g. the cost of car use, bring about different mode switching effects depending on trip purpose and trip distance. The paper's combination of consolidated evidence and new evidence from our own empirical study forms the basis for recommendations to urban policymakers whose goal is to obtain modal shift.Triggers of Urban Passenger Mode Shift – State of the Art and Model EvidencepublishedVersio
The vehicle purchase tax as a climate policy instrument
Get PDFSince 2007, the Norwegian vehicle purchase tax includes a large CO2 emission component. At the same time, generous tax exemptions and privileges are granted to battery electric vehicles. Continued application of the purchase tax instrument may induce large-scale penetration of electric cars into the passenger car stock, thus halving the fleet’s fossil fuel consumption and greenhouse gas emissions within two or three decades. The main tangible cost of this low carbon policy is the extra cost of acquiring novel products with currently small economies of scale. This cost difference will decline over time. The main benefits consist in reduced energy consumption and greenhouse gas emissions. We calculate the gross and net tangible cost of the low carbon policy in a long-term perspective, i.e. towards the 2050 horizon. A crucial cost determinant is the speed at which the manufacturing costs of battery and plug-in hybrid electric vehicles will fall. Under moderately optimistic assumptions about impending economies of scale, net tangible costs by 2050 come out in the range €48 to 278 per tonne CO2, depending on the discount rate and on battery replacement costs.acceptedVersio
“Maybe I Will Just Send a Quick Text…” – An Examination of Drivers’ Distractions, Causes, and Potential Interventions
Get PDFMany people use cars all over the world. This is, however, not done without risk, as traffic accidents are one of the most common causes of death for adolescents worldwide. The number of deaths has steadily decreased, both worldwide and in Norway. Many of these accidents involve passenger cars and distracted driving. While there are many campaigns to improve safety in traffic, little research has looked at distractions. A recent report has investigated the occurrence of and damage caused by distraction, and one article has looked at what predicts baseline differences in levels of distracted driving. However, no one has tested an intervention to decrease distracted behavior in traffic. Motivational variables suggested by the Theory of Planned Behavior, personality traits, and demographic variables show utility in similar contexts and are all tested in this project. Data from two samples were collected to investigate the nature of distractions in traffic, what factors predict baseline levels of distractions, and to test an intervention to reduce distractions. Both samples feature randomly assigned intervention and control groups. The first sample (n = 1100 total; n = 208 was licensed to drive) consisted of high school students from all over Norway as a part of a larger attitudinal campaign, while the second sample (n = 414) was more general. The second tested a digital version of implementation intentions designed as volitional help sheets. The results from both samples suggest that there are some robust differences between people in how much they are distracted in everyday life, while some variables need further research. The second study failed to uncover any effects of the intervention. Reasons for this are discussed, along with points on the efficacy of digital interventions, the design of the volitional help sheets, and the design of the study in general. Notwithstanding the ineffectual interventions, this study contains novel information about baseline differences in distractive behavior that may further impact future behavior change interventions and guide future research.publishedVersio
Productivity growth in urban freight transport: An index number approach
Get PDFImprovement of operational efficiency is a common goal of most governmental freight transport policies. Productivity and efficiency analysis consequently provides a sound knowledge base. This paper illustrates how axiomatic production theory can be applied to model road freight transport, and proposes a logistics efficiency measure as the function representation. Based thereon, a logistics productivity index that decomposes into technical, cargo mix, vehicle capacity, and efficiency changes is established to determine the rate and drivers of growth. Emphasizing urban logistics, the paper discusses the limited access to reliable data at the micro level and illustrates how local or regional freight transport can be evaluated applying pseudo panel techniques to national freight surveys. Correspondingly, the theoretical productivity index is implemented on a pseudo panel covering the 24 largest cities in Norway between 2008 and 2012, when 12 of them entered a collaboration agreement to promote efficient transport. The results indicate a modest 0.6% average productivity growth. Efficiency change is the key driver of growth, countered by technical stagnation and regress. Negative productivity growth is expected if this trend continues. Moreover, the results do not reveal productivity gains from urban agglomeration or membership of the collaboration agreement, suggesting that prevailing transport and land use policies have so far been unable to foster productivity growth in urban freight transport.acceptedVersio
A push for public health: the effect of e-bikes on physical activity levels
Get PDFBackground Cycling is considered to have a positive effect on public health through increased physical activity. In Norway, the e-bike is seen as a way of getting more people to cycle. However, the motorized assistance of an e-bike potentially eliminates any physical activity associated with its use. It is possible that the assumed health effect of increased cycling is “erased” through a reduction in other physical activities (a substitution effect). In this paper we study the public health effects of e-bikes using a combined cross-sectional and quasi-experimental design. First, we explore the existence of potentially hedonistic values in relation to interest in acquiring an e-bike and, second, we conduct an intervention study of physical activity pre- and post-purchase. Methods A sample of 340 people responded to a questionnaire before buying an e-bike and follow-up 4 weeks later, when 45 had bought one. A further 28 (mainly physically inactive) were recruited through a Norwegian NGO. For a comparison group, 1995 people were recruited through the Falck National Register of Bicycle Owners. All respondents were asked about the intensity of their cycling, (kilometres cycled in the previous week), walking and physical activity in addition to cycling as means of transport (days and hours). Results A structural equation model showed that hedonistic life values, and general physical activity, were predictive of interest in buying an e-bike. However people who already cycled a lot showed less interest. The trial showed that increased cycling – whether as a mean of transport or exercise –was related to higher levels of total physical activity in both groups compared to a comparison group (one-way ANOVA). Conclusions Our findings indicate that in the Norwegian cycle population there is no substantial substitution effect of physical activity with the introduction of an e-bike. The appeal of the e-bike is strongest among those with little existing interest in, or levels of, physical activity. The net effect of the e-bike therefore seems positive from a public health perspective.publishedVersio
Residential location, commuting and non-work travel in two urban areas of different size and with different center structures
Get PDFThere is an extensive literature on relationships between the built environment and travel, but the vast majority of such studies rely solely on statistical analyses of available travel survey data, with limited possibilities for demonstrating causality. This article presents findings from a methodologically novel study drawing on a combination of a tailor-made questionnaire survey and in-depth qualitative interviews, including cross-sectional as well as longitudinal analyses. Our mixed-methods approach offers stronger evidence of causal influences than in most previous studies on the built environment and travel. We illuminate such relationships in two metropolitan areas differing considerably in their size and urban structure: the relatively monocentric Norwegian capital Oslo and the smaller, predominantly polycentric Stavanger area. The study encompasses travel distances and modes for both commuting and intra-metropolitan non-work purposes. The paper thus offers a comparison of the influences of built environment characteristics on travel across metropolitan contexts as well as for different travel purposes. In both metropolitan areas and for commuting as well as non-work trips, inner-city dwellers make a higher proportion of trips by non-motorized modes and a lower share by car. Inner-city residents in both metropolitan areas also travel shorter distances for non-work purposes than their suburban counterparts do. In the relatively monocentric Oslo metropolitan area, commuting distances also tend to increase substantially the further away from the city center the workers live. In the more polycentric Stavanger metropolitan area, commuting distances are first and foremost influenced by the location of the dwelling relative to a large suburban employment center, and only secondarily by its distance to the city center of Stavanger. Commuting distances as well as travel modes for both commuting and non-work travel depend mostly on the distance from the dwelling to the main or second-order centers of the urban region. Local built environment characteristics play a greater role for trip distances to non-work destinations, particularly in the Oslo region. The results generally support urban containment as a strategy to promote sustainable mobility, with inner-city densification as particularly favorable.acceptedVersio
Regional repercussions of new transport infrastructure investments: An SCGE model analysis of wider economic impacts
No full textWiljar Hansen, Bjørn Gjerde Johansen, Regional repercussions of new transport infrastructure investments: An SCGE model analysis of wider economic impacts, Research in Transportation Economics, Volume 63, 2017, Pages 38-49, ISSN 0739-8859, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.retrec.2017.07.004.In this article, we analyse the wider economic impacts (WEI) of a large number of planned Norwegian transport infrastructure projects. WEI are welfare effects caused by imperfections in markets adjacent to the transport market and are additional to the transport user benefits calculated in a conventional cost-benefit analysis. A multiregional Spatial Computable General Equilibrium (SCGE) model is developed on the basis of data from sources such as the Norwegian national accounts by county, the Norwegian national transport modelling system, foreign trade statistics and the Norwegian commodity flow survey. The model departs from the assumption of constant returns to scale and perfect competition, taking into consideration commodity, commuting and migration flows between regions. Based on the large number of analysed projects, we are able to draw general conclusions about project specific characteristics leading to WEI of transport infrastructure investments and the expected relative size of these effects. The paper relates to the ongoing discussion on the link between infrastructure and economic growth, and illustrates how SCGE models can be used in transport appraisal.Regional repercussions of new transport infrastructure investments: An SCGE model analysis of wider economic impactsacceptedVersio
Exploring the safety in numbers effect for vulnerable road users on a macroscopic scale
Get PDFA “Safety in Numbers” effect for a certain group of road users is present if the number of crashes increases at a lower rate than the number of road users. The existence of this effect has been invoked to justify investments in multimodal transportation improvements in order to create more sustainable urban transportation systems by encouraging walking, biking, and transit ridership. The goal of this paper is to explore safety in numbers effect for cyclists and pedestrians in areas with different levels of access to multimodal infrastructure. Data from Chicago served to estimate the expected number of crashes on the census tract level by applying Generalized Additive Models (GAM) to capture spatial dependence in crash data. Measures of trip generation, multimodal infrastructure, network connectivity and completeness, and accessibility were used to model travel exposure in terms of activity, number of trips, trip length, travel opportunities, and conflicts. The results show that a safety in numbers effect exists on a macroscopic level for motor vehicles, pedestrians, and bicyclists.submittedVersio
Is forest landscape restoration socially desirable? A discrete choice experiment applied to the Scandinavian transboundary Fulufjället national park area
Get PDFUsing an economic valuation approach, we assessed people's stated preferences for policy aimed at enhancing restoration of functional networks of naturally dynamic boreal forest habitats as a public good. Active landscape restoration can improve the functionality of boreal forest habitats as green infrastructure, which is essential for biodiversity conservation and delivery of multiple ecosystem services that production forests are poor at providing. In contrast, so far designation of protected areas in Fennoscandia has focused on remnant patches of near‐natural forests, and not on forest landscape restoration. We assessed citizens' preferences for forest landscape restoration in a transboundary region primarily managed for sustained‐yield wood production for the forest industry, and which hosts the transboundary Fulufjället National Parks in Sweden and Norway. We conducted a discrete choice experiment by asking Swedish and Norwegian citizens to choose among two options for the Fulufjället area, including (1) extension of passive protection on one side or both sides of the border, by additional area protection and restoration of forest naturalness, and (2) a status quo option. The scenario assumed that extension of the protected forest area would imply a compulsory tax administered bilaterally by the two countries. Just over half of the sample, in both countries expressed willingness to pay for forest landscape restoration. Alternatives that contemplated larger extensions of forest landscape restoration were assigned higher willingness‐to‐pay. Public awareness and support, combined with spatial planning, are necessary for forest landscape restoration to become a viable tool for biodiversity conservation in Scandinavia.acceptedVersio