TØI Vitenarkiv
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Hva kan vi vite om effekten av etablering av ungdomsklubb på Furuset?
No full textStiansen, Ø., Tveit, A. K. 2024. Hva kan vi vite om effekten av etablering av ungdomsklubb på Furuset? Vol. 4(2), 1-12. doi: 10.18261/njus.4.2.6I en fersk NJUS-artikkel finner forfatterne ingen effekt av tilgang på fritidsklubb på ungdoms fornøydhet med eget lokalmiljø. Vi applauderer forsøket på å bruke moderne empiriske metoder til å besvare spørsmål av høy politisk og akademisk interesse, men påpeker i denne kommentarartikkelen vesentlige mangler i Tøge et al. (2024) sin anvendelse av forskjell-i-forskjeller-designet. Hovedårsaken til svakhetene er at deres datasett mangler presis informasjon om bosted. Resultatet er at forfatterne antar at en ungdomsklubbs eventuelle effekter vil ha påvirket ungdom i hele bydelen (Alna i Oslo), det vil si langt utenfor det lokalmiljøet hvor klubben ligger. Videre hadde mange av ungdommene i Alna bydel tilgang på ungdomsklubb før den aktuelle klubben ble åpnet. Vi bruker Monte Carlo-simuleringer til å diagnostisere Tøge et al. (2024) sitt design. Simuleringene illustrerer hvordan studien underestimerer årsakseffekten av den aktuelle ungdomsklubben, og at designet deres ofte med høy sannsynlighet vil resultere i nullfunn også i tilfeller der den reelle årsakssammenhengen er sterk. Dette understreker at holdbare undersøkelser av ungdomsklubber og andre nærmiljøtiltaks effekter krever presis geografisk informasjon.Hva kan vi vite om effekten av etablering av ungdomsklubb på Furuset?publishedVersio
NERVE – en utslippsmodell for veitrafikk. Dokumentasjon av revidert beregningsmodell for utslipp fra veitrafikk i norske kommuner
Full text linkWeydahl, T., Grythe, H., Steinsland, C., Madslien, A. (2024). NERVE – en utslippsmodell for veitrafikk. Dokumentasjon av revidert beregningsmodell for utslipp fra veitrafikk i norske kommuner (NILU rapport 40/2024). Kjeller: NILUNILU og Transportøkonomisk institutt (TØI) har på oppdrag fra Miljødirektoratet videreutviklet modellen NERVE («Norwegian Emissions from Road Vehicle Exhaust») for beregning av klimagassutslipp fra veitrafikken i norske kommuner. NERVE-modellen anvender de mest detaljerte datasettene for bilpark, utslippsfaktorer, trafikk og veier for spesifikke lokale forhold. Datasettene er kombinert i en datastruktur som gjør at resultat kan aggregeres på et lite eller et stort geografisk område. NERVE kan således betegnes som en «bottom-up»-utslippsmodell, fordi den er bygget opp «nedenfra» fra detaljerte datakilder. Denne rapporten presenterer metodikken og antagelsene bak beregningene med NERVE, og sammenligner resultat aggregert på nasjonalt nivå med annen tilgjengelig nasjonal statistikk.NERVE – en utslippsmodell for veitrafikk. Dokumentasjon av revidert beregningsmodell for utslipp fra veitrafikk i norske kommunerpublishedVersio
Recasting sustainable summer holidaying: scripts, time experiences, freedom, place change and environmental imprints
Full text linkFarstad, E., Mehmetoglu, M., Landa-Mata, I., Higham, J., Hopkins, D., & Steen Jacobsen, J. Kr. (2024). Recasting sustainable summer holidaying: scripts, time experiences, freedom, place change and environmental imprints. Journal of Sustainable Tourism, 1–21.In the summer of 2020, COVID-19 border closures, travel restrictions, infection risks and other uncertainties forced many people to cancel or adapt their holiday plans. This disruption created an exceptional context to study home-based holidaying experiences, representing a departure from pre-pandemic habits and routinely rehearsed summer holiday scripts. Responding to a longstanding bias in tourism research towards (high-carbon) international travel and a neglect of near-home holidaying, an explorative quantitative survey elucidated what novel or altered experiences may disclose about summer holidaying attitudes and transitions towards more sustainable forms of tourism. Theoretically informed by conceptualisations of holiday time, place change, role change, and routinisation of holiday practices, a SEM analytical framework revealed two primary inclinations. One was receptive to summer home holidaying and was associated with recognition of the environmental footprint of regular leisure travel and a willingness to recast vacation plans accordingly. The other was averse to home-based holidaying, driven by the view that it was unfulfilling and by a desire to resume international travel when restrictions were eased.Recasting sustainable summer holidaying: scripts, time experiences, freedom, place change and environmental imprintsacceptedVersio
Healthy persuasion: a values-based messaging approach to leisure air travel decision-making
Full text linkHigham, J., Veisten, K., Landa Mata, I., Farstad, E., Hopkins, D., & Bian, Y. (2024). Healthy persuasion: a values-based messaging approach to leisure air travel decision-making. Journal of Sustainable Tourism, 1–25. https://doi.org/10.1080/09669582.2024.2399169“Healthy persuasion” is a public health social marketing strategy that aims to counter corporate efforts to drive the desire to consume products that cause negative individual (personal) and/or collective (social and/or environmental) health outcomes. In this paper, we argue that healthy persuasion might be usefully borrowed from public health and applied to leisure air travel (over) consumption to facilitate behaviour changes that past facts-based messaging has failed to evoke. We implemented mixed methods to generate quantitative and qualitative insights into the air travel decision making of Norwegian leisure travellers. Our analysis identifies and explores the values held by three groups relating to reduced leisure air travel – supporters, persuadables and opponents. We draw insights into values-based message framings that are likely to be effective in appealing to supporters and persuadables to reshape their air travel consumer decisions and conclude with important avenues of future research.acceptedVersio
A comparison of actual and perceived risk of apprehension for speeding in Norway
No full textRune Elvik, A comparison of actual and perceived risk of apprehension for speeding in Norway, Accident Analysis & Prevention, Volume 209, 2025, 107814, ISSN 0001-4575, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.aap.2024.107814.This paper compares actual and perceived risk of apprehension for speeding in Norway. Actual risk of apprehension was estimated by relying on data on the number of citations for speeding and the percentage of vehicles speeding when passing automatic traffic counting stations. It was defined as the number of detected violations per million kilometres driven while committing a violation. Perceived risk of apprehension was estimated as a mean annual frequency of getting detected by the police, based on survey answers given by samples of drivers surveyed in 2010, 2014 and 2024. Actual risk of apprehension was converted into a mean annual frequency of detection by relying on estimates of the mean annual driving distance. Thus, perceived mean annual frequency of detection could be compared to actual mean annual frequency of detection. Drivers were found to overestimate the risk of apprehension considerably, but the size of the overestimation declined from 2010 to 2014 and further again to 2024. In 2024, mean perceived risk of apprehension was about 2.4 times higher than actual risk of apprehension. Drivers were also found to overestimate the number of speed cameras deployed in Norway. Only a small minority of drivers had a correct perception of how the risk of apprehension for speeding varied according to the level of speeding. The decisions drivers make about speeding are based on their perceived risk of apprehension; hence it is advantageous to compliance that drivers overestimate the risk of apprehension.publishedVersio
The development of a road safety policy index and its application in evaluating the effects of road safety policy
No full textRune Elvik, The development of a road safety policy index and its application in evaluating the effects of road safety policy, Accident Analysis & Prevention, Volume 202, 2024, 107612, ISSN 0001-4575, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.aap.2024.107612.The paper presents an exploratory study of a road safety policy index developed for Norway. The index consists of ten road safety measures for which data on their use from 1980 to 2021 are available. The ten measures were combined into an index which had an initial value of 50 in 1980 and increased to a value of 185 in 2021. To assess the application of the index in evaluating the effects of road safety policy, negative binomial regression models and multivariate time series models were developed for traffic fatalities, fatalities and serious injuries, and all injuries. The coefficient for the policy index was negative, indicating the road safety policy has contributed to reducing the number of fatalities and injuries. The size of this contribution can be estimated by means of at least three estimators that do not always produce identical values. There is little doubt about the sign of the relationship: a stronger road safety policy (as indicated by index values) is associated with a larger decline in fatalities and injuries. A precise quantification is, however, not possible. Different estimators of effect, all of which can be regarded as plausible, yield different results.The development of a road safety policy index and its application in evaluating the effects of road safety policypublishedVersio
Technical and cost analysis of zero-emission high-speed ferries: Retrofitting from diesel to green hydrogen
No full textMasih Mojarrad, Rebecca Jayne Thorne, Kenneth Løvold Rødseth, Technical and cost analysis of zero-emission high-speed ferries: Retrofitting from diesel to green hydrogen, Heliyon, Volume 10, Issue 6, 2024, e27479, ISSN 2405-8440, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.heliyon.2024.e27479. (https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2405844024035102)This paper proposes a technical and cost analysis model to assess the change in costs of a zero-emission high-speed ferry when retrofitting from diesel to green hydrogen. Both compressed gas and liquid hydrogen are examined. Different scenarios explore energy demand, energy losses, fuel consumption, and cost-effectiveness. The methodology explores how variation in the ferry's total weight and equipment efficiency across scenarios impact results. Applied to an existing diesel high-speed ferry on one of Norway's longest routes, the study, under certain assumptions, identifies compressed hydrogen gas as the current most economical option, despite its higher energy consumption. Although the energy consumption of the compressed hydrogen ferry is slightly more than the liquid hydrogen counterpart, its operating expenses are considerably lower and comparable to the existing diesel ferry on the route. However, constructing large hydrogen liquefaction plants could reduce liquid hydrogen's cost and make it competitive with both diesel and compressed hydrogen gas. Moreover, liquid hydrogen allows the use of a superconducting motor to enhance efficiency. Operating the ferry with liquid hydrogen and a superconducting motor, besides its technical advantages, offers promising economic viability in the future, comparable to diesel and compressed hydrogen gas options. Reducing the ferry's speed and optimizing equipment improves fuel efficiency and economic viability. This research provides valuable insights into sustainable, zero-emission high-speed ferries powered by green hydrogen.Technical and cost analysis of zero-emission high-speed ferries: Retrofitting from diesel to green hydrogenpublishedVersio
Changes in Traffic Jams and Injuries Impact on Acceptability of Automated Vehicles: A Strong Curvilinear Relation with no signs of Loss Aversion
Full text linkEgner, Lars Even. 2024. “Changes in Traffic Jams and Injuries Impact on Acceptability of Automated Vehicles: A Strong Curvilinear Relation with No Signs of Loss Aversion.” Findings, August. https://doi.org/10.32866/001c.122205.We investigate whether the acceptance of autonomous trucks as a function of their impact on traffic jams and injury rates are affected by loss aversion and diminishing sensitivity as described in prospect theory. In an online survey (N = 447), we presented randomised sets of values the replacement of human truck drivers would have on traffic jams and injuries. Adjusting for loss aversion provides no additional explained variance in the model, but adjusting for diminishing sensitivity does.Changes in Traffic Jams and Injuries Impact on Acceptability of Automated Vehicles: A Strong Curvilinear Relation with no signs of Loss AversionacceptedVersio
Car ownership after having children: Exploring the impacts of income and public transport accessibility
Full text linkLunke, E. B. (2024). Car ownership after having children: Exploring the impacts of income and public transport accessibility. Urban Studies, 62(5), 976-994. https://doi.org/10.1177/00420980241271003Mobility research and theory suggests that new parents often develop a car-dependent way of living that runs counter to prevailing climate policies. In this context, the current study investigates the influence of public transport accessibility on car ownership among first-time parents in the Oslo region. Specific attention is paid to how the effect of accessibility varies with different income levels. Linear probability and fixed-effects models are applied to parents and a control group of non-parents to explore these relationships. The results show that public transport accessibility reduces the likelihood of car ownership in the years after family formation, although with larger impacts for some income groups than for others. Households with a high income combine car ownership with high access, whereas others seem to sacrifice one for the other. These findings have several policy implications. First, urban regions with a combination of gentrification in the central city and increasing poverty in suburban areas face a potential conflict between environmental and social sustainability. Finding ways to increase central-city opportunities for low- and medium-income families is a difficult but important step towards greater overall sustainability. Second, the reduction of car ownership among high-income households appears to require supplementary measures. The article ends with a discussion of the findings in the context of broader urban policy development, particularly in relation to the prioritisation of collective consumption.Car ownership after having children: Exploring the impacts of income and public transport accessibilityacceptedVersio
An Empirical Study of the Policy Processes behind Norway’s BEV-Olution
Full text linkFigenbaum, E. An Empirical Study of the Policy Processes behind Norway’s BEV-Olution. World Electr. Veh. J. 2024, 15, 37. https://doi.org/10.3390/wevj15020037Norway’s large battery electric vehicle (BEV) market and fleet are not the result of a comprehensive policy plan. Using the multiple streams (MS) framework and document analysis, it was identified that the most important Norwegian BEV policy decisions were made using inadequate policy processes that fall outside of traditional politics. This is contrary to the MS framework postulate that three independent streams of problems, policy solutions, and politics must align to pave the way for new policies. Politicians had limited information about the effects of policies they introduced in this “learning by doing process”. Impact assessments were rarely made. The decision rationale was often not documented. The future market expectation and thus the national budget consequences were low when important policy decisions were made, whereas the political gain was high. The processes were more aligned with traditional politics after 2014. The ambitious ZE vehicle targets for 2025 and the climate policy targets for 2030 locked in incentives, despite rising tax losses. In sum, these developments created the world’s largest per-capita BEV market. To avoid negative issues and keep the BEV policies’ potential to support the BEV transition, politicians should ensure that sufficient knowledge is available when making decisions about future policies. Such decisions should be taken transparently within traditional politics, be properly assessed as with EU policy processes, and regularly reviewed as with the California ZEV mandate process. The required knowledge should be developed in open-access research.An Empirical Study of the Policy Processes behind Norway’s BEV-OlutionpublishedVersio